Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

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Raphael
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Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Raphael »

I decided that, after a long time of sometimes coming up with different ideas that had nothing to do with my other ideas, I might try to bring some of those ideas together and combine them into one scenario: a semi-utopian future Earth.

Note to You-Know-Who-You-Are: Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about the other thing; I just felt an urge to write this down now.

The Overall Setting

Right now, I think I'll have this all happen in the 26th century. Or, as the people who live there call it, the 126th century, because most of Earth has adopted the Holocene Calendar by then: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_calendar

The most important aspect of the scenario is the way the economy is run, so let's get right to that.

The Basic Economics

This part of the scenario is taken from what I posted during the recent discussion of economic policies over in the Random Thread, in this post: https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?p=73986#p73986

To save you the click, here are the important parts.
Raphael wrote: Mon Aug 28, 2023 7:31 am [P]erhaps I might post a rough first draft of a proposed solution to the problem of how to run an economy.

[...]

First, all economic entities - what a capitalist economy would call "businesses" - are legally owned by the public. The public retains all ultimate rights to exercise control over them, and to reap the benefits, if any, of their activities.

However, that is not interpreted as meaning that the people in charge of economic entities - which I'll call "EEs" for the rest of this post - are selected or appointed by "the state", or "the government", or something or someone like that. Instead, they can be chosen in many different ways. Perhaps elected by employees, or by customers, or by suppliers, or by the local public where their EE is active, or perhaps, if the EE is seen as especially important, by the legislature of a larger area. Or by any kind of combination of those groups. There might be enough variation in the details of this process that no two EEs get their managers picked in the exact same way, or grant their managers, internally, the exact same amount of authority over internal decisions.

At the same time, there is still a certain amount of space for what capitalists would call "entrepreneurship". This happens in the way new EEs are initially set up.

There are a number of public organizations, institutions, agencies, and so on, that have the authority to authorize new EEs. Individuals, or small groups of individuals, can bring proposals for new EEs to any such institution. If one of those institutions rejects their proposal, they can try another one. If an institution approves a proposal for a new EE, it also provides what, in a capitalist economy, would be called the "seed capital" for the EE.

Now, if you, or you and a small group of people, get approval for a new EE, then you, or you and your small group, get to be in charge of that EE for five (5) years. During that time, you can only be removed from that position in really exceptional circumstances. If it should turn out that you really are the kind of brilliant, dedicated, driven, visionary entrepreneur-hero type that capitalist propagandists love to go on and on about, then you can work your magic during those five years, and hopefully create, or inspire others to create, a lot of great new things for the world. There might even be an unwritten, informal custom that if your first five years are seen as a success, you get re-appointed for as long as you want, or until people get sick of you, afterwards.

In such a system, it would probably be unavoidable that there would also be an unofficial, or perhaps downright illegal, part of the economy which would be a lot more decidedly capitalist. This factor, together with possible high salaries for managers, or for skilled professionals, would still lead to certain inequalities in wealth. To keep that kind of thing from getting out of hands, there would be a hard, non-negotiable upper cap on how much wealth each individual would be allowed to own - perhaps 10 million 2023 Euros or US dollars, adjusted for inflation and converted into applicable currencies. Own more stuff than that, and it gets confiscated, no ifs and no buts.
Of course, under such a system, there would have to be special guidelines for cases where something starts out as a purely personal project and then turns into an effectively "commercial" or at least economically relevant thing so gradually the people involved don't even notice.

The process for getting new EEs approved might sound bureaucratic and complicated, but it isn't really any more complicated than getting the money to start a new business if you don't have it yourself would be in our time.

Politics

In the scenario, the world is united, under something like the constitution I posted in this thread: https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1221. This time, it would take up too much space to re-post the whole thing here, so you'll have to follow the link yourself. I have some important notes, though.

First, the version of the constitution posted in that thread leaves out some parts, most importantly Chapter 3 - Basic Human Rights and Fundamental Legal Principles. Those parts are supposed to be in there; I just haven't written them yet. And I might never do that, because, for instance, in the case of basic rights and legal principles, I think there will probably be future developments in cultural and social terms on that front that are basically impossible to predict from our time. However, in line with the economic system described above, Chapter 3 doesn't guarantee property rights in anything beyond personal belongings.

Second, I'm having second thoughts about Nairobi as the capital. In the scenario, climate change might have made what is now Kenya completely uninhabitable. I'll probably move the capital to somewhere less tropical, but still safely above sea level.

Third, I think I'll replace the President with an Executive Council along the lines of the Council I described in this post: https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?p=15168#p15168. To quote:
Raphael wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:03 pm A while ago, I had a few very rudimentary ideas about government in an SF project of my own that never got anywhere. At the core of it was a Council. [...]

Anyway, what was special about the Council was that it didn't have a single head or chief or chair or anything. Instead, Council members would take turns at being Councillors-on-duty. A shift as Councillor-on-duty might take 8 hours if you're generous to the Councillors, or 12 hours if you're less generous, though of course in a space habitat, the number of hours in a day might be different. The Councillor-on-duty would be obliged to stay awake and fully alert for their whole shift, and would spend the time in some kind of command center somewhere, waiting for things to happen. They would be expected to defer anything that's not too urgent to the next Council meeting, but would be authorized to make decisions on behalf of the whole Council in an emergency. Mainly, Councillors would appear in the story whenever the main characters would encounter a crisis that might potentially affect their whole political entity, in which case the main characters would contact headquarters and get more or less helpful instructions on what to do from the Councillor-on-duty.

The main advantage of this system over the way most countries currently do things in real life would be that, if an important decision would need to be made in a real hurry, there would never be any need to wake anyone up first.
Regional and local governments have similar Councils.

By the time of the scenario, the Constitution of the United Earth has been in force for somewhere between 100 and 150 years.

There is still some opposition to the general political and economic setup of the United Earth, often from descendants of political camps already active in our times, but it's pretty marginal. Anarchists, religious conservatives or fundamentalists, nationalists of the larger dissolved former nations states, and even people wanting to return to capitalism all exist, but those are all fairly eccentric positions. People in favor of stricter environmental measures than the ones described below are a more serious political force, though still far from a majority.

Symbols

Since many of the founders of the United Earth saw the United Nations as a failed project which they didn't really want to imitate, they did not adopt the UN flag, though they did keep the sky blue/white color scheme. The flag of the United Earth in the scenario has a sky blue background, on which the words "United Earth" are written in Chinese calligraphy and Arabic calligraphy, in white. (Yes, I kind of like the idea of trolling certain people a bit, how did you guess?) The official logo has the same basic design, but with a horizontal ellipse rather than a rectangle as the background.

The anthem of the United Earth is a very sappy, sentimental song which is still seen as genuinely moving by some older people, but which many members of the younger generations see as one big cheezapalooza. I haven't come with most of it yet. It might be cheesy and sentimental, but not so cheesy and sentimental that someone as unskilled at writing songs as me could come up with it.

That said, it starts with the lines

So long we dreamed
So long we fought

and ends with the line

A world where we won't let you down

repeated once.

Environmental Matters

Environmental protection is taken a lot more seriously in the scenario than in our time. There is still a lot of environmental damage, and climate change is still re-shaping the world, with sea levels still rising. However, in a lot of places, the environment has recovered somewhat from the worst damages of our time or the times between our time and the time of the scenario.

Environmental measures in the scenario are mostly based on the scientific study of environmental impacts, not on deep-green romanticism. So, for instance, living in places with high population densities is usually encouraged rather than discouraged. Expect these places to look like some types of solarpunk art, though.

People usually live in fairly cramped quarters; there is none of what TV Tropes calls "Friends Rent Control". Outside the big apartment blocks, a lot of houses that were originally built for individual middle- or upper class families or as duplexes have been subdivided and further subdivided so that they now consist mostly of what our time would call ADUs or granny flats.

Very few people have their own cars - in some, though not all, places that's outright banned - but there still are a lot of (electric) cars around: ambulances, delivery vans, food trucks, take-craftspeople-to-work vans, and so on. Some people try to work to further reduce the number of cars. The cars don't fly. Most, but not all, places have banned self-driving cars.

Public transportation and cycling are very commonly used. In lower density areas, share taxis are really big.

Passenger air travel is still fairly commonly used, though. People haven't really found a good replacement for it yet. Regular tourism has been mostly replaced by visiting friends and relatives in different parts of the world.

The meat and dairy industries of our time have almost completely disappeared, to some extent - but only to some extent - replaced by the production of artificial alternatives. Many places have completely banned the farming of animals. Many others haven't, but even there, it's a lot less common than in our time. There are ongoing political debates about a global ban, but the proponents, though vocal, are not a majority. Eating insects and spiders is still legal in most places.

Which brings us to

Food

A few people in the places that allow it still eat actual vertebrate animal meat. The rest of humankind is about evenly divided into those who eat artificial meat and those who don't. In many places, eating insects and spiders is fairly popular, though.

Cuisine has moved boldly onward from our time, innovating fusions, fusions of fusions, and fusions of fusions of fusions. There's a lot more variety in what individual people prefer to eat than in our time.

A lot more people than in our time care about eating in healthy ways, but there are also many other people who prefer unhealthy food. Some people see that last point as a serious problem, and spend a lot of time debating what should be done about it.

Both among many people who are into health food, and among some people who are not, it is popular to eat sliced, spiced, and often fried pieces of vegetables not the way we would eat regular meals, but the way we would eat potato chips.

Social Safety

The scenario has a fairly robust social safety net, though, because of the different basic setup of the economy, there's less need for it than in our time. If you have no other source of income, you get a certain amount of basic income. If you do have other sources of income, that income is partially, but only partially, subtracted from your basic income. Above a certain level of other income, you stop getting basic income.

Education is free. Well, to get pedantic, it is indirectly paid for by previous generations who got free education in their day. But higher education is less in demand than in the wealthier countries in our time, because EEs and the people in charge of them generally don't assume that, in order to do a job, you need to have a degree that focused on taking classes in subjects unconnected to what you have to do in your job. Besides, there are very few people left who think that there's something wrong with you if you spend your life in blue collar or service sector jobs, and the lives of people in such jobs aren't generally insufferable the way they were in our time, either.

That said, it is a lot more common, accepted, and respected than in our time to go to college later in life, after you've already worked in non-academic jobs for a while. Only about a quarter of all college students are what we would see as "college aged".

There's widespread consensus on the social safety net, partly because there aren't any billionaires who could spend their billions on funding anti-social-safety-net propaganda.

Demographic Matters

People with all kinds of physical characteristics live in large numbers almost everywhere where people live. It's a lot more common than in our time for someone to be, say, half Indonesian, one quarter indigenous American, one eight White European, one sixteenth Black African, and one sixteenth indigenous Siberian. As a result, to a visitor from our time, a crowd of random people might well look somewhat "odd", in a hard-to-describe way. (If any part of the scenario would ever somehow make it to any kind of screen that would probably make it difficult to find enough good actors and extras for all the characters in our time, but since that's not going to happen, there's no need to worry about it.)

White people are a lot less common than in our time, even in Europe and their traditional colonized areas. They no longer dominate any walk of life, and aren't overrepresented in important positions anymore, either. By the standards of the scenario, though not by the standards of our time, they are still somewhat overrepresented in some sports, some genres of popular culture traditionally associated with them, and some fields that might be of particular interest to them, such as the academic study of traditional European folklore.

Similarly, East Asia is no longer mostly populated, let alone dominated, by people who would look "stereotypically East Asian" to us.

About half of all people have physical features that would look Black to us. Most, but not all, of them also self-identify as such.

In terms of religion, there have been all kinds of developments I haven't thought about yet. Many people have abandoned the beliefs of their ancestors. Many others have made a point of rediscovering and reviving them. There might be some new arrivals on the scene. About one third of all people globally - a plurality - self-identify as Muslims, with varying degrees of observance. About one in six women globally wear the one or other kind of traditional Islamic head coverings, though with a lot more variations in style than in our time. There are, of course, some fundamentalists who don't accept those women who self-identify as Muslims but don't wear the one or other kind of traditional Islamic head coverings as being Muslims at all.

I'm seriously torn on how to handle disability in the scenario. On the one hand, it seems likely to me that by the time of the scenario, medical advances will have gotten very good at turning people with various disabilities into people without those disabilities. On the other hand, I'm generally all in favor of inclusion and representation, and that should of course include having a fair number of characters with various disabilities in a scenario like this. I think I'd rather err on the side of present-day inclusive representation than on the side of future plausibility.

Old age has not been beaten. Thanks to medical advances, people are a lot more likely than in our time to make it to 90, but they are not that much more likely than people in the richer parts of the world today to make it to 105.

Language

It will be generally assumed that characters are speaking some future variety of either English or some other language, which has been translated into the English of the early 21st century for the convenience of readers. Therefore, there shouldn't be any fancy future slang; if humanity makes it to that time, there wouldn't just be fancy new slang; there would be entirely new speech varieties.

Technology

I'm not imagining all that much new technology. Some medical advances, some advances in food production, some advances in energy-related technologies, some other stuff that wouldn't be too difficult to predict from our time; but not much more than that.

I admit that that's not very plausible; but I want to focus on social, cultural, and economic stuff in this scenario.

However, as a bit of a personal indulgence, I'll allow myself to break the laws of physics and have an early form of interstellar travel, as something still fairly new at the time. It shouldn't be the main focus of the scenario, though; main characters should either not be involved in it at all, or, at most, work as part of ground crews. I'm mainly having this aspect of the scenario so that I can have one other aspect of the scenario described later.

Oh, and in the scenario, humanity can be divided about equally into people who use "smart" household devices at home, and people who don't. There are occasional calls for bans on such devices, but most decision makers think that banning something used by half of all people would be a bad idea.

Various Aspects of Life

Fashions have developed in a similar way to food (see above), except perhaps with even more new variations. There should never be too many characters wearing the same or similar clothes. The conventions of our times about who wears what kinds of clothes in which contexts have mostly broken down, except when it comes to religious garb, or to the kinds of work clothes that are simply more practical than any alternatives in specific workplace environments. Completely boring, conventional, and non-rebellious office workers might go to work dressed like late-20th-century punks.

Among most people, sex is at least as liberated as in most of those Western countries not named "USA" in our time; but there is also a substantial minority with religious conservative views which prefers a more restrictive approach to sexual matters. Outside the Religious Special Districts, they don't have the power to force their views on others, though.

Sex work is generally legal, except inside some of the Religious Special Districts. But in one crucial aspect, it is treated as different from other professions: There's a general expectation that sex workers who dislike doing sex work but find it difficult to leave should get more help with switching jobs from the rest of the world than, say, office workers in a similar situation.

Most (or perhaps all; I haven't decided that yet) of the drugs illegal in our time are legal, again except for some of the Religious Special Districts. Most of the ones that were illegal in our time have the same mandatory health warnings that tobacco has in some places in our time, though.

Differences in lifestyles between what our time calls the "Global North" and the "Global South" have disappeared, except for a few lingering cultural matters. In some ways, the "Global North" has become more like the "Global South"; in others, in "Global South" has become more like the "Global North".

People in the former "Global South" generally get more and better food, better working conditions, better physical infrastructure, and better health care than today. They live in buildings a lot more likely to have been built according to basic safety standards, and are therefore less likely to die in natural disasters, than in our time. Life in the former "Global South" is also, on average, for lack of a better word, more "orderly" than in our time.

At the same time, people in the former "Global North" live in much more cramped conditions than in our time, rarely ever have personal cars, and usually don't own any other luxury goods, either.


Phew. Deep breath. So far, this has probably been mostly something many left-wingers of our time would see as at least close to their own preferred Utopia. Unfortunately, there's one field where I personally simply don't think Utopian left-wing approaches can work, and where I'll therefore have to disappoint many of those people who might have liked this scenario so far. That field is...

Handling Crime

There is still a kind of public security force. It's structure started out as a compromise between some people opposed to all police forces and some people who saw them as necessary. So, unlike the police forces of our time, it is divided into two clearly distinct groups: praetors and lictors. I got the idea from this blog post by Bret Devereaux:

https://acoup.blog/2023/08/18/collectio ... -imperium/

The lictors are the "enforcement muscle" and get to actually do things, but they aren't allowed to do anything without a praetor telling them to do it.

Praetors are not simply the equivalent of "high-ranking" police officers of our time. No, their physical presence is absolutely required for the lictors to do anything at all. Lictors aren't allowed to go anywhere while on the job without a praetor present, and aren't allowed to do anything while on the job without a praetor explicitly telling them to do it, either. Therefore, there is, on average, one praetor for every three lictors.

Agreeing to take a job as a lictor means agreeing to a lifelong ban on working as a praetor, and vice versa.

To avoid misunderstandings: Unlike their namesakes in Ancient Rome, praetors have no role whatsoever in organizing or running the court system.

The relationship between praetors and lictors is often tense, and that's entirely by design: Praetors aren't supposed to be all that comfortable with letting lictors do things.

The more "technical" aspects of what we would call police work, such as detective work or the technological analysis of physical evidence, put praetors and lictors on a somewhat more equal footing, but even there, when it comes down to it, the praetors are clearly in charge.

What if the lictors, acting on orders from the praetors, actually arrest you?

First of all, the standard punishment for any crime that, by its very nature, can only be committed by people in a specific position in life, such as embezzlement, abuse of authority, or being so sloppy at work that it endangers others, is a longtime or, in more extreme cases, lifelong ban on being in that kind of position.

For most crimes, the punishment is some form of probation. If the crime is minor enough that the harm caused by it might still be repaired, part of the probation conditions will be that the convict contributes to repairing that harm.

Fines have been completely abolished, because of their discriminatory effect on people with less money.

There are still prisons. Violations of probation terms are often punished by a few weeks or months in prison. However, if you're convicted of a crime that's so serious that the very fact that you were willing to commit that crime is seen as proof that you're a permanent threat to other people, you'll get locked up for a very long time, with no furloughs. People in that position, unless their convictions get overturned, are usually only released on humanitarian grounds once they're so old or sick that, because of their physical frailty, they're no longer seen as a threat to other people.

Prisoners have a basic right to decide themselves how much or how little contact they have with other prisoners or outside visitors. Depending on their preferences, they can have anything from quasi-solitary confinement to a very sociable life.

There are still some regional differences in how actual court systems work, based on local legal traditions. So, for instance, courts in places that traditionally had common law still work a bit differently from courts in places that traditionally had civil law.


Finally, there's one more aspect of the scenario. Remember how, in the section on technology, I wrote that I allowed myself the indulgence of interstellar travel so that I could have one other aspect of the scenario described later? Well, that other aspect consists of the...

Aliens

At the exact start of the scenario, humanity makes its first confirmed contact with an intelligent alien species. The main characters will, of course, talk about that a lot, but at first, it won't play much of a role in their lives. Outside of media reports, characters from that alien species will only appear later in the plot(s).

I haven't yet decided what to call the aliens.

To make them easier to relate to, I'll probably keep them physically as standard-issue sci-fi-TV-style added-rubber-features humanoids. They are a lot like us, with sentient being hearts and sentient being heads and sentient being hands and other sentient being qualities (sorry, couldn't resist).

Psychologically, their difference from us is subtle but important: They are simply mostly or completely immune to the standard psychological mechanisms we have for fooling ourselves. Simply read a book like Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me), or similar academic or popular scientific writings on various aspects of social psychology, and assume that the psychological effects described there don't exist in those aliens. I think this might open up all kinds of interesting possibilities for interactions between human and alien characters in the scenario.


So, where do we go now?

My basic idea would be to have plots centered on a group of friends and acquaintances who try, with varying degrees of success, to set up new EEs. Usually, they would, of course, fail, but sometimes the scenario could go against readers’ expectations by having some characters succeed at something.

Problem is, I don't really have the kind of creativity that would be required to populate this scenario. I'm simply not that good at coming up with interesting and memorable characters, intriguing plots, or hilarious jokes.

So right now, my best plan is to wait until I come magically into possession of €100 million or €200 million, use some of that money to hire great writers and comedians to populate the scenario with characters, plots, and jokes, and then use the rest of the money to turn those characters, plots, and jokes into a big-budget tv/streaming show. But of course that's not going to happen, so I absolutely don't know what to do.


And now for something completely different...

Since this is, so far, my most serious attempt at conworlding posted to the ZBB, I thought I'd add some links to the other conworlding stuff I've posted to the ZBB, although that stuff is not related to this scenario.

First, Péchkizhénk, the Kingdom of Broken Chains, formerly known as the Ageist Kingdom:

https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=527

Second, Preservianism, a conreligion:

https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=680

And third, some very incomplete, very half-baked juvenilia:

https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1132

And that's it.
Ares Land
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Ares Land »

Nice!

This has just about the right mix of familiar and novel for the time period.

I should note that a lot of people would find it downright dystopic :)

I wonder why self-driving cars are banned? (I do think they're impractical, that said.)
I also wonder a little about the electric cars (battery production/recycling is a problem now... but wouldn't it be plausible to think it'd be fixed in two centuries?)

The praetor/lictor thing (I haven't read the Devereaux article yet) isn't completely unlike some present day legal systems -- in France we have something called Officier de Police Judiciaire or OPJ that have to sign off on a quite a number of acts; this also strongly reminds me of the police/judiciary relationship. (In France for instance the police can't detain you for interrogation without an explicit say-so from a judge. As you predict, the relationship can be tense.)
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Raphael
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Raphael »

Ares Land wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 8:41 am Nice!

This has just about the right mix of familiar and novel for the time period.
Thank you!
I should note that a lot of people would find it downright dystopic :)
Oh, I know. There are people in the world whom I'd want to see it as dystopic.
I wonder why self-driving cars are banned? (I do think they're impractical, that said.)
Because they kept killing people?
I also wonder a little about the electric cars (battery production/recycling is a problem now... but wouldn't it be plausible to think it'd be fixed in two centuries?)
Human-driven cars keep killing people, too.
The praetor/lictor thing (I haven't read the Devereaux article yet)
Oh, you shouldn't assume that the system is all that much like the Ancient Roman system Devereaux describes. I mainly got the idea of one group of officials who make decisions and another group who act as enforcers from there.
isn't completely unlike some present day legal systems -- in France we have something called Officier de Police Judiciaire or OPJ that have to sign off on a quite a number of acts; this also strongly reminds me of the police/judiciary relationship. (In France for instance the police can't detain you for interrogation without an explicit say-so from a judge. As you predict, the relationship can be tense.)
Yes; the setting mainly takes this a few steps farther. Lictors aren't allowed to do anything without a praetor telling them to. They're accompanied by a praetor when on patrol and when answering calls.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Ares Land »

Raphael wrote: Tue Sep 12, 2023 5:33 am Psychologically, their difference from us is subtle but important: They are simply mostly or completely immune to the standard psychological mechanisms we have for fooling ourselves. Simply read a book like Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me), or similar academic or popular scientific writings on various aspects of social psychology, and assume that the psychological effects described there don't exist in those aliens.
That's very intriguing. If you'd like to develop them in more depth, a good question to ask would be why human beings have these psychological mechanisms in place and what is their function -- then you could come up with evolutionary reasons why the aliens don't have them, and derive all sorts of interesting consequences.

For instance, why wouldn't they have false memories? I don't know, maybe they evolved as a solitary species and didn't really on each others' memories that much. Or maybe they're social but kind of sociopathic (as they say chimps are) so they evolved defenses against gaslighting.
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Raphael
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Raphael »

I haven't really thought much about how the aliens got to be that way. They were mainly intended as a kind of satire-on-human-folly device.
Ares Land
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Ares Land »

Raphael wrote: Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:24 am
I also wonder a little about the electric cars (battery production/recycling is a problem now... but wouldn't it be plausible to think it'd be fixed in two centuries?)
Human-driven cars keep killing people, too.
I've given some thought on the feasibility of getting rid of cars entirely (both from a real-life and conworlding perspective :)). I'm still very much undecided on it. It seems like the hub-and-spoke nature of public transportation, plus the last mile problem make things very difficult.
(Personally I'd predict some moving away from cars towards public transportation in the coming years, followed by a swift comeback to individual car ownership as electric cars become economical. Not to say that it's a good thing of course!)


Oh, you shouldn't assume that the system is all that much like the Ancient Roman system Devereaux describes. I mainly got the idea of one group of officials who make decisions and another group who act as enforcers from there.
I just realized the idea influenced real-life legal systems -- not surprising; until recently decision makers were huge Roman republic/empire geeks.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Raphael »

I keep having really weird ideas connected to this scenario, ideas with pretty much no chance of being executed. Here's the latest:


SUMMER OF 2573

A new take on the classic coming-of-age story, with a science-fictional and sort-of-utopian socialist twist.


"Ah, 2573. That year. Everyone who's old enough remembers it. But most people remember it for the grand historical stuff that happened. Most important event in human history, or, at any rate, one of the top ten, and all that. And we'll get to that later, I promise. But let's just say that I have my owns reasons to remember that time..."


Our protagonist is a young teenager, perhaps 14 or 15. Ideally, they would be a girl, but I don't really feel up to the task of writing a story from the perspective of a teenage girl, while I think I might just barely manage writing a story from the perspective of a teenage boy, so I'll assume they're a boy for now. He starts out somewhat dorky and awkward, but gains more confidence and determination over the course of the plot. At the start he takes his first summer job, eager to get a first taste of adulthood, doing lowest-level assistance work in a recently founded nab.

Nab? Yes, nab. The year is 2573, most or all of the world has turned to a form of decentralized democratic socialism, and there are no longer businesses, only not-a-businesses, or nabs. People who found new nabs, alone or in small groups, get to run them for five years, and even during that time, they are only managers, not owners. Afterwards, they have to turn over control to the employees, customers, or local community, or some combination of those.

This small, new, creaking-at-the-seams nab turns out to be run by a motley crew of miscreants - people from various walks of life, including the informal market, who want to make one last push to make their mark on the nab world and ideally get as wealthy as the laws of this future will allow it in the process. (This future has a hard upper limit on legal individual wealth.) Weirdness is the norm here - one of the founders of the nab even thinks that the world should return to capitalism, but they're really agreeable aside from that.

Oh, and then there's the big news story everyone is talking about: humans have just made their first contact with intelligent aliens. At first, it's just a news story: important, yes, but not something that matters in daily life. Later on, however, an extremely unlikely chain of events has the effect that the nab we're focusing on gets to play an important role in welcoming the first alien delegation on Earth - a make-or-break effort for both interstellar diplomacy and the nab's own financial outlook.

While all this is going on, as befits a classic coming-of-age story, our protagonist meets an interesting girl (not one of his new coworkers, I hasten to add) and both of them have to figure out their feelings, if any, for each other.

The general mood of the work should be upbeat and humorous, with a few tense or dramatic moments, but nothing overly gritty, let alone grimdark.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Ares Land »

Raphael wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 1:05 am I keep having really weird ideas connected to this scenario, ideas with pretty much no chance of being executed. Here's the latest:
I'd read that :)
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Raphael »

Ares Land wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 9:10 am
Raphael wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 1:05 am I keep having really weird ideas connected to this scenario, ideas with pretty much no chance of being executed. Here's the latest:
I'd read that :)
Thank you! Got more detailed comments, perchance?
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Ares Land »

Raphael wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 9:26 am Thank you! Got more detailed comments, perchance?
At this stage, the story works. There's something interesting about the capitalist character; a character in a halfway utopian setting who feels kind of oppressed by it is intriguing. Always plenty of potential in an interesting varied cast of character. And there should be more stories set in a non capitalist/socialist setting.

Other than that, I'm afraid that sort of thing really depends on the execution :)
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

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OK, overall, I think this is a pretty benign world, a reasonable way to organize a post-climate-change world. I feel like I recognize some bits of my own worldview. :) I could point out specific agreements (e.g. a wealth cap) but I'll just say that the economic system in general is fine.

Here are some things to think about. Please don't take these as criticisms. Some are maybe weak spots, but others are just invitations to work out more detail.

There's not much flavor for what the economy looks like. Where are the jobs? As a comparison point, here are the top 20 jobs in the US, by number employed. This accounts for about 50 million jobs out of 160 million.

sales clerk, health aid, manager, fast food worker, cashier, nurse, freight mover, customer service, stocker, clerk, cleaner, waiter, truck driver, secretary, bookkeeper, maintenance, software dev, supervisor, accountant, fabricator

(You might ask, as I asked myself, what about teachers? Well, this list comes from a site that has 832 occupation types, so teachers are broken down by grade.)

Almost all of this is service jobs. I've talked before about the frivolity economy, which I think is a good prediction for jobs 50 to 100 years out, and which also I think produces more jobs people will probably like. A lot of the above jobs are probably automatable, especially in a world with basic income where people don't have to lug packages around a warehouse.

To put it another way: if there is still tedious manual work, how do you motivate people to do it? Few people have a passion for cleaning floors. The Wildean answer is to let machines do it. But then you have to think more about what jobs humans are good at and want to do.

A good question to ask about any system is "How will people subvert it?" Your complicated system of EE ownership could be easy to manipulate. You seem to be avoiding committing to either worker capitalism or state capitalism... well, I believe in eclecticism too, but you have to be aware of scammers. (E.g. you mention local ownership. Fine: locate your EE in Ice Floe Flats Alaska, pop. 10; pay off those people to let management do what they want.)

5 years is too short for entrepreneurship. Cf. Microsoft: founded 1975, MS-DOS released 1981. Amazon, started 1994, made a whole-year profit only in 2003. What if, say, you're building a maglev? My suggestion is that the term is set when you apply for your permit, based on the business.

The Councillor-for-a-day idea: well, like sortition, it's worth a try. In general I'm wary of single-leader systems, so I do want to encourage alternatives. But committees and such are notoriously inefficient and hard to bring to agreement.

Without a provided history it's hard to evaluate whether the song is touching or cheesy. But even if this world required struggle to create... that struggle will be forgotten in another two generations. Is there a mechanism to keep people excited for it?

By 2573 I'd expect self-driving cars would work!

I'm surprised that there are no alternatives to planes. For continental travel, high-speed rail should work. If we apply the fastest speed (431 km/h) to NY-to-SF (4130 km) we get 9.5 hours. It's 6.5 hours by air, but about equal when you add in airport distances and check-in times. And 5 centuries in the future, surely the trains are faster?

You're not going to get interstellar travel without interplanetary travel... which requires a lot of new tech. If you don't want to get into that, you can have the aliens coming to our system rather than vice versa.

It's hard to picture every region getting racially and culturally homogenized. It's not impossible in 500 years, sure. But, say, to make Chinese not a majority in China means a billion people have to move there. (Well, less that that have to actually move, but quite a lot have to do it in order to reproduce there.) OK, maybe China is prosperous enough that people do want to move there. But is that also true of Guyana, Iceland, Idaho, and Tonga? The idea strikes me as an idealization of the US, where it's absolutely normal for a family to spread out all over the country. But this doesn't seem to happen in Europe anywhere near as much. Plus, can (say) the Navajo or the Pirahã still keep outsiders out of their land?

It's interesting that you say 1/3 of the world is Muslim. (It's 1/4 today.) I guess I'd want more detail on why it's particularly vibrant in a world where religious compulsion is hard to apply. I'd also what to know, which Islam? I'd suggest Sufism, rather than fundamentalism, if you want something that attracts converts and motivates long-term believers.

The police info is interesting... the obvious question though is, who watches over the lictors? I'd also note that the usual progressive position is that police should not be the default option for dealing with social problems. The lictor approach won't help if the underlying problem is, say, a mental illness.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

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Oh, and these occurred to me later:

The diverse food: very good, that's what I'd expect too.

The diverse fashion: mmmaybe. The thing is, everybody having their own fashion choices takes work. Default or cultural choices are easier for those of us who don't think about clothes that much. Now, this can absolutely be a distinguishing fact about your culture, that everyone wants to be individual in this way. On the other hand you have 1/6 of the female population wearing head coverings, which suggests some pressure for cultural conformity.

I think you have something of an sf monoculture going on. You allow religions to have special rules, but what about ethnic groups, political ideologies, furries, robot-haters, survivalists, whatever other groups might want a special lifestyle? I don't want to push my own sf ideas on you, but I guess I want to you to think about why this world seems so intent on eliminating national/cultural distinctions.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by Raphael »

Wow, thank you for that long and detailed feedback!

As a general note, I should say that out of all aspects of the scenario, the one I'm the least committed to is probably the one-worldism. So much could go wrong with that... I'll leave it for now, but might tone it down.
zompist wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 4:53 pm There's not much flavor for what the economy looks like. Where are the jobs? As a comparison point, here are the top 20 jobs in the US, by number employed. This accounts for about 50 million jobs out of 160 million.

sales clerk, health aid, manager, fast food worker, cashier, nurse, freight mover, customer service, stocker, clerk, cleaner, waiter, truck driver, secretary, bookkeeper, maintenance, software dev, supervisor, accountant, fabricator

(You might ask, as I asked myself, what about teachers? Well, this list comes from a site that has 832 occupation types, so teachers are broken down by grade.)

Almost all of this is service jobs. I've talked before about the frivolity economy, which I think is a good prediction for jobs 50 to 100 years out, and which also I think produces more jobs people will probably like.
Yes, I'll have to work my imagination harder. So far, I'm generally drawing a blank when I try to come up with good plausible frivolity economy jobs.
A lot of the above jobs are probably automatable, especially in a world with basic income where people don't have to lug packages around a warehouse.

To put it another way: if there is still tedious manual work, how do you motivate people to do it? Few people have a passion for cleaning floors. The Wildean answer is to let machines do it. But then you have to think more about what jobs humans are good at and want to do.
Well, income other than basic income is only partially deducted from basic income, so having additional income always leaves you with more money than not having additional income. People might do unpleasant jobs to buy that one thing they always wanted to buy, for instance.

A good question to ask about any system is "How will people subvert it?" Your complicated system of EE ownership could be easy to manipulate. You seem to be avoiding committing to either worker capitalism or state capitalism... well, I believe in eclecticism too, but you have to be aware of scammers. (E.g. you mention local ownership. Fine: locate your EE in Ice Floe Flats Alaska, pop. 10; pay off those people to let management do what they want.)
Oh dear. All I can say is that I guess a certain amount of scamming does take place, and is kept within certain limits by the individual wealth cap.

You're right that I'm distrustful of both pure worker capitalism and pure state capitalism - pure state capitalism has been shown not to work, and under pure worker capitalism, the wealthier cooperatives might end up as something very much like the corporations of our time.
5 years is too short for entrepreneurship. Cf. Microsoft: founded 1975, MS-DOS released 1981. Amazon, started 1994, made a whole-year profit only in 2003. What if, say, you're building a maglev? My suggestion is that the term is set when you apply for your permit, based on the business.
OK, I'll change that aspect as you suggest.
The Councillor-for-a-day idea: well, like sortition, it's worth a try. In general I'm wary of single-leader systems, so I do want to encourage alternatives. But committees and such are notoriously inefficient and hard to bring to agreement.
Oh, I guess you're right about committee inefficiency. I might go back to the president-for-a-year thing.
Without a provided history it's hard to evaluate whether the song is touching or cheesy. But even if this world required struggle to create... that struggle will be forgotten in another two generations. Is there a mechanism to keep people excited for it?
I want to keep the fictional history from now until about 2400 deliberately as vague as possible. Yes, people forgetting about how bad things used to be is a problem... I'm not at all sure how to handle it.

By 2573 I'd expect self-driving cars would work!
Maybe... but, to be honest, I worry that, if I write stories with self-driving cars, I might be mistaken for an Elon Musk fan.

I'm surprised that there are no alternatives to planes. For continental travel, high-speed rail should work. If we apply the fastest speed (431 km/h) to NY-to-SF (4130 km) we get 9.5 hours. It's 6.5 hours by air, but about equal when you add in airport distances and check-in times. And 5 centuries in the future, surely the trains are faster?
I'm not sure if trains can principally get that much faster than the fastest trains are now. And people who have friends and family on the other side of the world won't just want to do continental travel.

You're not going to get interstellar travel without interplanetary travel... which requires a lot of new tech.
Does it require new tech that's actually visible and relevant in the daily lives of people back on Earth, though?
If you don't want to get into that, you can have the aliens coming to our system rather than vice versa.
Nah, I don't like the idea of humans just sitting there passively and being discovered by aliens.
It's hard to picture every region getting racially and culturally homogenized. It's not impossible in 500 years, sure. But, say, to make Chinese not a majority in China means a billion people have to move there. (Well, less that that have to actually move, but quite a lot have to do it in order to reproduce there.) OK, maybe China is prosperous enough that people do want to move there. But is that also true of Guyana, Iceland, Idaho, and Tonga? The idea strikes me as an idealization of the US, where it's absolutely normal for a family to spread out all over the country. But this doesn't seem to happen in Europe anywhere near as much.
OK, fair enough, I'll change the parts about East Asia.
Plus, can (say) the Navajo or the Pirahã still keep outsiders out of their land?
I'll have to insert special provisions for that.
It's interesting that you say 1/3 of the world is Muslim. (It's 1/4 today.) I guess I'd want more detail on why it's particularly vibrant in a world where religious compulsion is hard to apply. I'd also what to know, which Islam? I'd suggest Sufism, rather than fundamentalism, if you want something that attracts converts and motivates long-term believers.
I was mainly trying to extrapolate current trends. Islam doesn't seem to show any signs of retreating the way Christianity has retreated in some of its traditional strongholds over the last generations and centuries. I'm not sure it's even plausible to limit it to 1/3 of the world.
The police info is interesting... the obvious question though is, who watches over the lictors?
Did you mean to write, who watches over the praetors? Because the praetors are the ones who watch over the lictors. Aside from that, good question.
I'd also note that the usual progressive position is that police should not be the default option for dealing with social problems. The lictor approach won't help if the underlying problem is, say, a mental illness.
Fair. I'll have to limit the praetors and lictors a bit more.
zompist wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 5:58 pm Oh, and these occurred to me later:

The diverse food: very good, that's what I'd expect too.

The diverse fashion: mmmaybe. The thing is, everybody having their own fashion choices takes work. Default or cultural choices are easier for those of us who don't think about clothes that much. Now, this can absolutely be a distinguishing fact about your culture, that everyone wants to be individual in this way. On the other hand you have 1/6 of the female population wearing head coverings, which suggests some pressure for cultural conformity.
I really should have thought that through better, especially given that I myself usually wear jeans and very simple, basic t-shirts and (depending on the weather) sweatshirts. I'd still like to have a bit more variety in clothes than many places have in our time, though.
I think you have something of an sf monoculture going on.
I'm not really sure what makes you think that. Lots of opportunities for individual variation in many aspects of life: food, fashions, religion, structure of the basic CV...
You allow religions to have special rules, but what about ethnic groups, political ideologies, furries, robot-haters, survivalists, whatever other groups might want a special lifestyle?
Individual members of these groups are largely free to live as they want. Or do you mean enclaves where groups like that get to make the rules? Yes, I guess I might introduce something like that.
I don't want to push my own sf ideas on you, but I guess I want to you to think about why this world seems so intent on eliminating national/cultural distinctions.
It was not really anything I intended; I'm sorry if it came out that way.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

Post by zompist »

Raphael wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 9:38 am Yes, I'll have to work my imagination harder. So far, I'm generally drawing a blank when I try to come up with good plausible frivolity economy jobs.
You could start with my list of jobs here, or my original frivolity economy post (newly restored— Jeffrey Henning asked for it to be an exclusive on his site for awhile, but that site has lapsed, so I put it back on mine).
I'm surprised that there are no alternatives to planes. For continental travel, high-speed rail should work. If we apply the fastest speed (431 km/h) to NY-to-SF (4130 km) we get 9.5 hours. It's 6.5 hours by air, but about equal when you add in airport distances and check-in times. And 5 centuries in the future, surely the trains are faster?
I'm not sure if trains can principally get that much faster than the fastest trains are now.
It's OK to be bold with sf. :) I think we are generally safe, even over-cautious, in assuming that 500 years on, things can be twice as efficient.
You're not going to get interstellar travel without interplanetary travel... which requires a lot of new tech.
Does it require new tech that's actually visible and relevant in the daily lives of people back on Earth, though?
It's mostly the other way around: you cannot have interplanetary bases until we can do life support way, way better than today. If you can live on the moon, you can live better in Antarctica or in the Gobi Desert. The waste-recycling you need in space can be used back in the megacities. If you can easily dig out habitats on Mars (which you need to do to protect against radiation), you can do the same to make underground cities here.
I was mainly trying to extrapolate current trends. Islam doesn't seem to show any signs of retreating the way Christianity has retreated in some of its traditional strongholds over the last generations and centuries. I'm not sure it's even plausible to limit it to 1/3 of the world.
In the last century Christianity went from 9% to 63% of sub-Saharan Africans, and the number of Christians in Asia increased tenfold (ordinary population growth was fourfold).
I think you have something of an sf monoculture going on.
I'm not really sure what makes you think that. Lots of opportunities for individual variation in many aspects of life: food, fashions, religion, structure of the basic CV...
Yeah, but that's essentially an American vision, easily seen in Star Trek: there are no divisions that might trouble society, only individual quirks that don't matter much.

Now, at a broad level, maybe that's exactly what a utopia can and should look like. Plus, it's undeniable that modernity or advancement in our time does homogenize things a lot: Tokyo and São Paulo and New York look a lot more like each other, and lifestyles there are far more similar, today compared with 200 years ago.

But I don't trust the process of extrapolation that much. Technology already has the seeds for supporting rather than erasing distinctions— stating with the ability to translate languages in real time. But different visions could coexist: e.g. in the Incatena I have a system where one planet emphasize a pseudo-retro lifestyle (plants all over, wooden buildings, modern conveniences all hidden), while another embraces genetic engineering and an entirely self-contained underground living system.

Again, though, I don't want to just push you in the direction of the Incatena. :) Just think for yourself, how does Hamburg in 2587 differ from Beijing or Lagos? You don't have to go into great detail, just have some ideas.
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Re: Bringing Together some of my Ideas: A Semi-Utopian Future Earth

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zompist wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2024 4:46 pm
You could start with my list of jobs here, or my original frivolity economy post (newly restored— Jeffrey Henning asked for it to be an exclusive on his site for awhile, but that site has lapsed, so I put it back on mine).
Thank you, those are great places to start!

If you can easily dig out habitats on Mars (which you need to do to protect against radiation), you can do the same to make underground cities here.
Now I'm reminded of Justin B. Rye's quip that "Asimov always overestimated the proportion of the population that shared his longing for a sub‐suburban lifestyle." (http://jbr.me.uk/retro/ia.html)



Again, though, I don't want to just push you in the direction of the Incatena. :) Just think for yourself, how does Hamburg in 2587 differ from Beijing or Lagos? You don't have to go into great detail, just have some ideas.
I have my doubts that it'll be still above water.
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