British Politics Guide

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Frislander
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Frislander »

dewrad wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:54 pm Who in the name of all that is holy is Sam Gyimah?
The other Tory token black.

No seriously that is basically all I really know him for, more so than James Cleverly. IIRC he's on the more central-wing of the party, but I honestly can't remember.
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dewrad
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by dewrad »

Frislander wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 3:09 pm
dewrad wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:54 pm Who in the name of all that is holy is Sam Gyimah?
The other Tory token black.

No seriously that is basically all I really know him for, more so than James Cleverly. IIRC he's on the more central-wing of the party, but I honestly can't remember.
There are two?!?
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by mèþru »

If you look here, you'll see that black Conservatives actually make a high percentage of (semi)-notable black politicians in the UK.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

dewrad wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 2:54 pm Who in the name of all that is holy is Sam Gyimah?
Funny you should ask...


Sam Gyimah
Who? The other other black Tory. Well, he’s actually the other black Tory, but when I mentioned Bailey before I’d forgotten about Gyimah, which is easy to do. Former Minister for Universities, Science, Research and Innovation.

Why? He’s black (and, interestingly, spent many of his formative years in Ghana, though he was born in Beaconsfield*). Unlike Cleverly, though, that’s not actually his only selling point. He’s mostly here because he’s a Remainer. He’s running on a platform of holding a second referendum, in which he personally will vote to Remain (though he won’t commit the government to campaigning for Remain). He’s part of ‘Right to Vote’, a quasi-party formed of five Tory MPs, three CUK MPs, and two Tory Lords, who agitate for a second referendum. Outside politics, he used to be an investment banker with Goldman Sachs, and to volunteer for various charities; he was a governor at an inner-city school, he was Vice-President of the Young Epilepsy charity, and so on. He’s a former President of the Oxford Union**.

Why not? He’s a Remainer. He once filibustered an attempt to have the teaching of first aid made compulsory in secondary schools.
Chances: Zilch.

Career Hghlight: He resigned in protest at May’s deal. Which, to be fair, everyone else did, but he was unusual in attacking it from the Remainer side, calling it a ‘deal in name only’ and bewailing our loss of access to European satellite systems.



----------------


*a town with a population of 10,000 people but a bizarre attraction for intellectuals of a conservative bent. Edmund Burke died there, as did G.K. Chesterton, while Disraeli owned a house nearby and was named Earl of Beaconsfield, and more recently Terry Pratchett was born there. In recent times, it was the home of Airey Neave (campaign chief for Thatcher) and Liam Fox (a contender at the last leadership election) and is the home constituency of Dominic Grieve (the leading Remainer Tory). It’s also been home to poets Edmund Waller and Robert Frost. This is, to reiterate, bizarre, given its tiny population and lack of any other great distinguishing virtues.

**we should probably point out: there are now three Presidents of the Oxford Union in this race, as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are also ex-Presidents. Other notable former Presidents in the Tory Party include the deputies to the last three Tory Prime Ministers (Damian Green for May, William Hague (de facto) for Cameron, and Michael Hesseltine for Major), as well as Theresa May’s husband. Traditionally the campaign for President is seen as being much like Westminster party leadership elections, only without the honour, grace or dignity. However, I’m not sure that any President has gone on to be Prime Minister – although apparently Macmillan would have been President if not for WWII getting in the way.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Richard W »

Salmoneus wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2019 4:54 pm However, I’m not sure that any President has gone on to be Prime Minister – although apparently Macmillan would have been President if not for WWII getting in the way.
Going back through the list. the last two to become a prime minister that I spotted were Benazir Bhutto (Pakistan) and Ted Heath (UK).
Frislander
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Frislander »

Actually looking over that list again (and being reminded of that other notable black Tory Kwasi Kwarteng) actually kinda makes me think we should stop thinking in tokenist terms, because this reflects the fact that race issues are different in the UK than the US, like how much more of the UK black population is descended from relatively recent immigrants from Africa, and thus like most immigrants they're comparatively well-off. You do have your deprived black populations for sure (the sort of people that Diane Abbot represents in her Hackney constituency), but they're fairly concentrated in urban areas, while the children of immigrants find themselves spread out over the country, and due to their relative wealth are more likely to support the Conservatives (as a result the party-regional spread for black politicians strongly mirrors the country as a whole - Labour in urban areas, particularly London, and Tories in relatively rural home counties seats.)
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

Yes, it's not literally that there aren't any black Tories.

There's two main reasons why there are black Tory MPs. One is that most black Tories are Black African, rather than Black Afro-Caribbean, and the black african population (with some exceptions, like Somalis) is on average much better off, and tends to be socially and economically conservative - controlling for wealth, for example, black children today have better educational scores, lower involvement in crime, greater future earnings and employment and so on than white children, and that's largely because of the black african population with its strong emphasis on education. Because they tend to be located in urban areas and to identify with minorities, many of them still vote Labour, but they're as a group much more willing to vote Tory than the afro-caribbean population is.

The other reason is that the Tories have long been in favour of positive discrimination in candidate selection (not as an ideological thing, but as a political strategy) - a response to having developed a reputation of being all old white men. They've experimented with things like all-female lists, preferred candidate centralised lists and so forth, and if they find someone female and/or bame they try if possible to parachute them into a safe seat. To give them credit, it's actually been quite succesful, particularly in bringing more women into the party.

That said, while this has increased the number of ethnic minority MPs, most of them continue to languish in obscurity.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

Momentous news for the future of the British political system!!!!!

You remember Change UK - The Independent Group, formerly known as Change UK, and before that known as The Independent Group, the breakway cross-party realignment of politics that will radically change how politics is done in this country?

Well, you may have noticed they've had some issues with their leadership. At first, they had no leader. Then they had an Interim Leader (Heidi Allen), but also a Chief Spokesperson (Anna Soubry) who always came on TV to complain that what the Interim Leader had said was, to quote, "nonsense", but also a Founder (Chuka Umunna, the former future prime minister) who disagreed with both of them.

Well, now they've resolved the issue. Their 11 members have held a new vote, and elected Anna Soubry their Leader.


...and at the same meeting, 6 of the 11 members (i.e. at least one who must have voted for her!) left the party in protest at its new direction.


So now there are 5 ChUK-TIG MPs, and 6 MPs who have left the party to form "an independent group", separate from The Independent Group. This will give them more "flexibility" to transform British politics and represent fully the views of the great majority of the public who approve of their positions (whatever those might be), who for some reason didn't feel able to actually vote for them when they were a party.


...outgoing Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable simply pointed out that "the door is always open" if any of them would like to join an actual centrist Remainer party...


-------------


In other news, Trump has endorsed Boris to be the next Prime Minister, but has also held meetings with Gove, and with Farage, who he's demanding should be Britain's negotiator for Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn can't decide what his position is, needless to say, so has simultaneously ightously boycotted a state dinner with Trump (because Trump is an appalling dictator and it would be irresponsible to talk to him) and also pleaded to be allowed to have private talks with Trump (because Trump is the President and it's important to talk to him). Trump, rather more straightforwardly, is boycotting Jeremy Corbyn (he's a "negative force"), so the question is rather academic at this point...


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In other other news, a big blow for Tories still hoping to become PM - and yes, there's still half a dozen who were considered likely to have go but hadn't officially yet declared. Unfortunately for most of them, the parliamentary party has now taken a long hard look at itself, decided it has no fuck what the idea is going on with this shit now, and changed the rules drastically.

Previously, to get onto the initial ballot, a candidate required two nominations from MPs (including themselves). Now they'll require 8. Going by the informal MP headcounts at Conservative Home (a website for Tory fans and activists), this alone will eliminate 7 of the 13 candidates (so far).

Well, 6 of the 13 - Sam Gyimah was headed for elimination anyway, as Conservative Home can't find a single MP other than Sam Gyimah who's willing to even say he should be in the contest, let alone that he should win.

------

Except - make that 5 (/4) of the 11. Yes, today's a day of shocking twists in British politics, and two more totally unanticipatable shocks have rocked the race. Are you ready?

Shock 1: James Cleverly is not going to be the Prime Minister (yet)!
Yes, the man hardly anybody has heard of has admitted that he's discovered a flaw in his campaign. I asked [the party] to make a leap of faith, he said, It is clear that... MPs were not comfortable with such a move. It has become clear that it is highly unlikely I would that I would progress to be the final two candidates.

Who the fuck, one might ask, was that not already clear to, one might reasonably ask. To James Cleverly, is the answer, a man who clearly has his finger on the pulse of public sentiment. A man so ambitious he previously sought "to be the final two candidates" - why, being only one of the final two would be too easy! Not worth his time!

And now, Shock 2: Kit Malthouse is not going to be the Prime Minister (ever)!
Yes, the man everybody previously assumed was the name of a local Westminster public house has likewise had a revelation. Having put himself forward to "lead a new generation", on the basis of 20 years in "front line politics" (mostly as a local councillor), because nothing says "new generation" like including the phrase "have spent 20 years in politics" in the same sentence, Malthouse has now discovered that the last few days have demonstrated that there is an appetite for this contest to be over quickly and for the nation to have a new leader in place as quickly as possible. Yes, normally people are just crying out for torturous internal election squabbles between 15 candidates the public's never heard of while the nation drifts slowly toward a cliff-edge and the party and parliament lie in disordered tatters... but for some reason just this once there's apparently little tolerance for egotistical no-hopers hopping on the bandwagon and holding the nation's attention hostage until they've received their fifteen minutes of being vaguely 'oh that other guy'. Oh well.


So, only 10 more withdrawals to go. And hopefully the rule changes will keep the likes of Jesse Bleeding Norman from jumping in - no, I don't know who that is in the slightest, but apparently he thinks he might be Prime Minister. If he announces, I'll check out his wikipedia entry, otherwise I can't be arsed. However, Penny Mordaunt is still on the fence, and would be a big enough name to possibly be in with a shot. [I guess, though, nobody's going to want to declare that they're running unless they're sure they'll get 8 nominations, since that would be a bit humiliating].


-------------

While we're at it, we may as well recap the process and check out the new rules and timetable.


There are in effect six phases.

Phase One, we're in now: people ask around, and if their ego is bigger than the number of people telling them to fuck off, they declare that they're running.

Phase Two, the people who announced they were running have to get 7 other MPs (or 8 if they don't support themselves) to officially nominate them. These nominations are public, and you have to use your real name. Phase Two, the "call for candidates", lasts from Friday 7th to Monday 10th.

Phase Three is the parliamentary balloting. This is the genuinely quite fun bit (if, like me, you like elections). Traditionally, they would have a series of ballots, with the loser of each ballot being eliminated and their suppoters having to find someone else to vote for - a sort of real-time STV, if you will. It's quite a clever system, and fun to watch because you get to see the narratives unfold over weeks - the problem is, it does sort of make the party look like it's in chaotic paralysis for weeks on end. Particularly when there are so many candidates.

So this time it's a bit different. This phase has now been split into two, and the first of the two (i.e. the third overall) will in turn involve two ballots, each with a different but absolute threshold.

In the first ballot (Thursday 13th), all candidates who fail to get at least 16 votes will be eliminated.

In the second ballot (Tuesday 18th), all candidates who fail to get at least 32 votes will be eliminated.

Phase Four begins the next day. From Wednesday 19th, there will be a ballot every day, and each day the worst-performing candidate will be eliminated. This will continue until only two candidates remain.

In Phase Five, the election shifts away from MPs and out to the party membership. This phase is a two-person head-to-head election between the two surviving candidates, with the membership of the party as the electorate. Hustings will begin, if Phase Four has finished by then, on the 22nd June, and the election will have ended by 22nd July (it takes a while because it's a postal ballot).

Finally, there's Phase Six: the one where MPs start debating when to launch a vote of no confidence in their new leader, because this system doesn't ensure that the 'winner' actually has the support of the majority of MPs...


------


Personally, I'm a little irritated that they've shortened the fun bit (the TV reality show-style elimination of candidates one by one) and lengthened the boring bit (the month-long wait for the final ballot), but never mind. I'm nonetheless looking forward to it - it's a spectacle we don't get to witness very often!

Leaving aside the pretend elections of 1989 and 1995 (head to heads between a PM and a stalking horse candidate), there have only been 6 Tory Leadership Elections in my lifetime. Two of those were damp squibs, but the other four were great fun.

I was too young to pay attention to 1990 - Thatcher beat Hesseltine in the first ballot, but was forced to resign before the second, while Major entered in the second ballot to whomp Hesseltine, before winning the third ballot unopposed (members didn't have a say back then).

In 1997, there was the complication that several candidates (notably Portillo) had just hilariously lost their seats as MPs and hence couldn't stand (while the contest was scheduled promptly to prevent Chris Patten getting back from Hong Kong in time). Howard was the frontrunner, with Hague running to be his deputy... but Anne Widdicombe confessed she couldn't vote for Howard as he had "something of the night about him", everybody realised Howard was actually a vampire*, and Hague backstabbed him by declaring his own candidacy. Ken Clarke (the pro-European) won the first two ballots... but was beaten by Hague in the third and final round, despite the fact Hague was about 12 years old at the time.

In 2001, it was Portillo vs Clarke. Portillo won the first ballot, but the party was thrown into crisis, as it realised it didn't have any rules for who to eliminate in case of a tie for last place. The second ballot was therefore a re-run of the first, in the hope that the tie would be broken - it was, by one vote, but the non-loser decided to withdraw anyway. Portillo won that round too. However, his supporters saw a problem coming: for the first time, the final ballot would be by the membership, and Ken Clarke was more popular than Portillo among the members (oh, how times have changed!). So, Portillo supporters strategically voted for a bloke called "Iain Duncan Smith", in order to eliminate Clarke.

...and as a result, Portillo came third by one vote and was himself eliminated. The vote now went to the membership, with the result determined on September 11th 2001... but for obvious reasons they didn't actually declare them until a few days later, when they had people's attention again. "IDS", "the quiet man", won - despite not having the support of the majority of MPs.


In 2003, after two years of failure and ineptitude, MPs said fuck it, and this time skipped the whole democracy business and just appointed Michael Howard unopposed on the grounds that it seemed like he knew what he was doing.


In 2005, however, we had a good one. Howard built up the excitement by resigning, but saying he'd stay on until the entire system of elections was painstakingly reconsidered - six months later, he finally stood down, after the party had decided to leave the rules almost exactly the same. During this six months, various candidates put themselves forward and then ruled themselves out. David Davis was the frontrunner, but the contest was timed in order to use the party conference as an on-TV audition process (really, so much of reality television was pioneere by the Tories!), with each contestant giving a speech - Davis' was terrible, and he plummeted in the polls. He recovered to sneak through to the final ballot, but Cameron beat him with nearly 70% of the vote.


In 2016, boringly, they just gave it to May, but only after Gove had backstabbed Boris, Andrea Leadsom had made a fool of herself, and the "joint campaign" of Stephen Crabb and Sajid Javid faltered when the former was discovered to have sent lewd, harassing messages of a sexual nature to a multitude of women. So even the bad contests usually have some fun bits!
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KathTheDragon
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by KathTheDragon »

Salmoneus wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:03 pmSo, Portillo supporters strategically voted for a bloke called "Iain Duncan Smith", in order to eliminate Clarke.

...and as a result, Portillo came third by one vote and was himself eliminated.
This is absolutely hillarious
Frislander
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Frislander »

I'm noticing that the rules, especially as they now stand, are to some extent predicated upon the Conservatives having a sizeable number of MPs in the Commons, both to provide a sufficient number of candidates as well as some measure of competition, especially if these 8 sponsors cannot sponsor multiple candidates, which makes me wonder what would happen to it if the party were to suddenly haemorrhage seats in a general election à la the Lib Dems in 2015.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by zompist »

Yeah, that's a good question... can MPs nominate more than one candidate?
MacAnDàil
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by MacAnDàil »

Or à la the Tories in the 2019 European election.

You weren't meaning to addan asterisk to the sentence about Howard being a vampire, were you, Sal?

I love how asking the membership is something of an afterthought. And the many people who aren't Tory party members don't have any say whatsoever in who becomes next prime minister.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

*no, seriously, he's a vampire. Here's a typical photograph of the man the conservative party thought would make a popular PM (as seen by those helplessly hypnotised before he decants their jugular into a wine glass). Here he is, fangs showing, as, with a gesture of his hand, he summons his undead minions to rise forth. Or here he is wiping the blood of the poor from the corner of his lips. Or this is the seductive young Howard hypnotising his prey back in the early 1990s. Here he is devising a diabolical scheme. Or here, imagining slowly removing your skin. Or here, the last thing you see before he bits you. And finally, this one isn't really vampiric per se, but I love the fact you can tell what they're saying in this one: IDS is laughing self-deprecating and saying "I've been a bit shit at this, haven't I?", and Howard is saying menacingly "yes Iain, you have, I'll have to find some way to... reward... you..." (ominous crack of thunder). Sorry, ominous crack of thunder. I mean, even in his Wikipedia photo, you could swear you can see fangs...

Of course, it turns out that actually this simultaneously national realisation that the man was, indeed, a vampire, turns out to have been a bit racist. Does he look like the reincarnation of Dracula? Yes. But that's not a coincidence: it's because he is actually from Transylvania (or at least, both his parents are), and apparently that's just what Transylvanians look like.

[at the time, Labour and the media were accused of anti-semitism for their criticisms of Howard, and for using the vampire iconography, as apparently vampires are a dog-whistle for the Blood Libel...]


Anyway, if you feel bad for Howard for being mocked in such a way, here you can remind yourself of one of the high-watermarks of British politics. (the classic piece gets going about 1:40, but the earlier bit helps set the scene, and encourage you to hate Michael Howard).
Salmoneus
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

MacAnDàil wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:40 pm I love how asking the membership is something of an afterthought.
This is because, as we've had to discuss with reference to both parties over the last few years, in any parliamentary system the real "party" is the coalition of MPs. We all pretend we live in America, where parties are traditionally just machines for choosing and electing politicians (though admittedly American parties have become more English in recent years, as ours have become more American), but here, the 'official' party, as legally constituted, is just a flag-waving exercise bolted onto the front of an existing parliamentary party system. [in fact, the development of party systems is fossilised in strata in our existing system: the real cadre parties in parliament first developed a national support network in the form of a branch parties, and then finally a modern national volkspartei was constructed over the top].

It's all very well wanting the membership to actually decide meaningfully - but the problem is that that gives you Jeremy Corbyn. i.e. it can give you a "leader" whose MPs simply refuse to be lead. Since the PM is by definition the one who can command the confidence of the majority, who the PM is is ultimately always decided by parliament, not by the people...

And the many people who aren't Tory party members don't have any say whatsoever in who becomes next prime minister.
To be fair, we did all get a say, just two years ago. The plurality of us said we'd like the prime minister to be a Conservative, so unless the majority can rally around an alternative candidate, that's going to continue to be the case until the next election.

It wouldn't make much sense to have the public as a whole decide the next Conservative Leader, because most of us aren't Conservative. We might end up electing Corbyn as the Tory Leader...


Of course, there is a question of legitimacy when a new, unelected leader takes over... which is why they usually then call an election. May and Brown both tried to delay, and both got punished for it.

[the problem this time will be that the tories are expecting to do SO terribly that the fact the electorate will hate them refusing to hold early elections doesn't hold much fear for them!]
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

zompist wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:31 pm Yeah, that's a good question... can MPs nominate more than one candidate?
Good question. I can't find the rules (knowing the tories, it's possible the rules don't specify anyway), but I believe they can't.

The rules can always be changed if need be (they often are). I'm not sure about the nomination threshold, but the vote thresholds on the first two ballots are actually expressed as percentages of the parliamentary party that just happen to work out to 16 and 32, so they wouldn't need to be changed, in theory.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Moose-tache »

I don't know why this is, but for some reason it seems to be really popular to photograph British politicians as they're coming out of a doorway, and thus half in shadow (like this). It might be that the press is allowed to crowd around doors waiting for people to exit at a closer distance than their American counterparts, who end up producing lots of photos of politicians at podiums(/podia) and clear interior or exterior spaces. Whatever the reason, it makes anyone in the photo just look... slightly evil.

Am I simply imagining things? Is this even real?
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by MacAnDàil »

Obviously it wouldn't make sense for everyone in the public to choose the Tory leader. But what could happen is say the head of the main party's changing so a new general election gets underway.

Also, isn't it a bit unfair to start a contest and then decide to change the rules? the Tories knew for months that it was coming at some point or another. They could have changed the rules earlier. At least it was during phase 1!
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

15 minutes until the nominations close.

Th big news is that Penny Mordaunt - who had built a campaign team and done the expected pre-announcement PR ventures - has backed down and declined to run. She's backing Hunt.

Somewhat surprisingly, Amber Rudd is also backing Hunt. That makes a priori sense - they're both relatively long-serving MPs from the remain-or-sensible-leave side of the party - but it had been rumoured she'd give up her principles and back Boris in return for a top job.

Michael Gove miscalculated. It was revealed in the Daily Mail - the paper his wife writes for - that he once used cocaine, more than 20 years ago. Gove probably felt he needed to amp up his cred, with other candidates having confessed to cannabis and opium... but he forgot that everybody hates him, and now they're beating him around the head with the "but how could we possibly trust you on Brexit when you took drugs that one time back when you were a journalist?" [meanwhile, Boris is strongly rumoured to still be using, but That's Just Boris].

Apparnently Gove's official launch was soundtracked by Katy Perry songs, which is just so wonderfully and inappropriately Gove...


Boris, meanwhile, is being kept locked in a bunker because his aides worry that he'll say something stupid. He did briefly escape, however, to promise big tax cuts for the rich.

It's OK, though, because his lawyers in the recent misconduct case (lying about brexit) defended him on the grounds that, due to everybody knowing he was a liar, it was clear that nobody would actually have been lead to believe that what he said might have been true...


There's something really charming about the fact that people applying to be PM do so with a crumpled school sponsored-run form....
(and yes, that list detailig supporting names that they published does indeed say "details of supporting names will not be published". These are Tories.)



Esther McVey, meanwhile, officially launched her campaign standing at a grey lectern that she'd bluetacked an old black and white photograph of Margret Thatcher to the front of.
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Salmoneus »

So, it's officially ten candidates: Johnson, Gove, Hunt, Raab, Javid, Hancock, McVey, Stewart, Leadsom, and Harper. Brady didn't go through with it either, despite having resigned from his job in order to do so.


And Sir Alan Duncan has uttered what might be the most delusional thing we'll hear in British politics this year (and yes, there's competition): explaining why he voted for Jeremy Hunt, he opined that "he will appeal to young people".
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Re: British Politics Guide

Post by Moose-tache »

From the Sun: "Mr Ball, who brought the prosecution, said today: "I would ask you, please, all members of Parliament, all elected representatives, understand: you cannot lie to the public about their money."" ... "Mr Darbishire [Johnson's lawyer] told the court that the making of false statements "must be as old as political campaigning itself" and that Mr Johnson's use of the £350 million figure could not be characterised as misconduct."
So, this Marcus Ball fellow seems to have slightly misread the room.

More from DW: "Johnson's lawyer claimed the figure had been open to debate and for voters to discount: "It was just a political claim open to and available for contradiction and debate, and it was, and is, for the good sense of the electorate to discount it if they choose so to do," the lawyer added."
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