Elections in various countries

[mèþru]

I am not sure if this is true, but this is what I thought happened:
Lega hadn't left government at the time. They called for a vote to bring down the government while still being part of it, and Conte pre-empted the vote by resigning.

[Raphael]

India has removed 1.9 million people in Assam from a list of citizens:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49520593

[Vijay]

Ugh, the anti-Bangladeshi thing again

[Raphael]

Exit poll results for the state legislative election in Brandenburg (Germany):

SPD 27.5 percent, AFD 22.5 percent, CDU 15.5 percent, Left 11.0 percent, Greens 10.0 percent, some local party alliance that I don't know much about is currently exactly at the 5 percent threshold, FDP 4.8 percent (probably below the five percent threshold)



Exit poll results for the state legislative election in Saxony (Germany):

CDU 32.0 percent, AfD 27.5 percent, Left 10.5 percent, Greens 9.0 percent, SPD 8.0 percent, FDP 4.8 percent (probably below the five percent threshold)

[Raphael]

In Saxony, the AfD wants to get a new election. Based on some provisions of state electoral laws that I don't really know much about, the State Constitutional Sourt had ordered a shortening of the AfD's electoral list, which might have the impact that the AfD can't send as many people into the legislature as their result would normally entitle them to. IMO that was a pretty dumb decision by the court, both on general principles and because it turned the AfD into martyrs.

[MacAnDàil]

As far as I can tell from discussion on the Europe Elects Facebook page, similar incidents have occurred in the past with other parties. It's just the AfD that gets all up in arms about having to follow the same procedures as everyone else.

Those are disappointing exit polls because normal polls suggested more votes for the Greens and less for AfD.

[Raphael]

Yes, seems likely. Edit: That said, IMO procedures that can keep parties from getting all the seats they're entitled to are a bad idea.


(I'm not interested in posting all the extrapolations ("Hochrechnungen") as they come in; I plan to post the Provisional Official Final Results (which are a thing in German elections, despite being, strictly speaking, a contradiction in terms) once I see them.

[MacAnDàil]

Oops, I edited to include another sentence and you replied in the meantime and the board didn't warn that someone had posted in between times. Next time I'll just make another post.

[Raphael]

In both states, voter turnout was a good deal higher than in their previous state legislative elections. Turnout rose from 47.9 to 60.5 percent in Brandenburg and from 49 percent to 65 percent in Saxony.

[Raphael]

By the way, do I get this right that "MacAnDàil" means something like "Son of the Assembly"?

[Raphael]

Provisional official result for Brandenburg:

SPD 26.2 percent, AfD 23.5 percent, CDU 15.6 percent, Greens 10.8 percent, Left 10.7 percent, Brandenburg United Citizens' Movements/Free Voters exactly 5 percent (and at least one electoral district seat, so they don't have to worry about the threshold), FDP 4.1 percent (that is, below the threshold)

[Raphael]

Provisional official result for Saxony:

CDU 32.2 percent, AfD 27.5 percent, Left 10.4 percent, Greens 8.6 percent, SPD 7.7 percent, FDP 4.5 percent (below the threshold)

[MacAnDàil]

In both states, voter turnout was a good deal higher than in their previous state legislative elections. Turnout rose from 47.9 to 60.5 percent in Brandenburg and from 49 percent to 65 percent in Saxony.

Ah, that explains the difficulty in prediction. In terms of population, roughly the same number people voted Green as expected. It's the vote for SPD and AfD that rose, as a fight between the two major marties in the region. AFAICT, this probably allows for a CDU-SPD-Green coalition in both regions, with CDU leading in Saxony. Perhaps even a SPD-Green-Left in Brandenburg. Or is a CDU-AfD coalition actually likely to happen in your opinion?

As for my nick, that is one interpretation possible. There are 2 or 4 homonyms in Scottish Gaelic (https://www.faclair.com/?txtSearch=d%C3%A0il) that are pronounced 'dàil', depending on the categorisation. It can also mean 'delay', 'history' and 'circumstance' among other things. The nick originated as the Gaelicisation of Makandal, a Haitian marroon.

[mèþru]

Checking opinion polling for Israel's next election, I think at this point the only possible majority government is Likud minus Bibi doing a coalition with Blue & White
Maybe Israel will have a minority government that can't actually pass much
I'm leaning toward left-wing minority government being more likely, but I'm not sure. The Joint List won't join (or else it wouldn't be a minority government), but they have the mandates to help install a left-wing government. On the other hand, a right-wing minority government would be a larger minority.

[mèþru]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49632409
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09 ... ainstream/
What's gone wrong with the German Constitutional Court? Size didn't matter in previous bans of neo-Nazis.

[Raphael]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49632409
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09 ... ainstream/
What's gone wrong with the German Constitutional Court? Size didn't matter in previous bans of neo-Nazis.

Banning a party is seen as a somewhat bigger deal than banning an organization that's not a party.

[MacAnDàil]

Lolwut? Their excuse is basically "He might be a nazi but he knows how to email."

[Vijay]

Apparently, the BJP has decided that there are too many cows getting run over while wandering the roads freely at night in Uttar Pradesh, so they've decided to illuminate the cows by putting electric lights on their horns.

Some people are saying more or less what I'm thinking: Why do you care so much about the goddamn cows when you clearly don't care about humans?
Someone else said: So you can put lights on the cows, but you can't turn the streetlights on?
Some people closer at heart to the BJP are saying: This is a great idea! Running over cows is a big problem running over dogs is not blah blah blah.
Someone similarly stupid said some BS about Chhatrapati Shivaji tying torches to cows' horns as if it was actually relevant.
Some people in Uttar Pradesh who also seem to support the BJP but have differences of opinion with the other BJP-supporters on this issue are saying: Those stupid fucking farmers! They shouldn't be allowed to let their cows wander around at night! They complain about other people damaging their property but not about their cows damaging other people's!
All the Telugu people are saying: Holy shit the government is as crazy unrealistic as our movies now? We had a movie with the exact same idea! (But we apparently don't agree which one).
Some Punjabi guy said in Punjabi: But who will change the batteries?

[Yiuel Raumbesrairc]

In the land of maple syrup, poutine, nanaimo bars and kraft dinner, 40 days of campaign will lead us to elect the next government that shall lead 35 million tatas for another four years (hopefully).

So, is Western Alberta and Countryside Ontario pissed off enough of the selfiogenic J. Trudeau, leading to a Conservative government, or is urban Quebec too afraid of A. Sheer religious conservatism and urban Ontario too pissed off of D. Ford, leading to a Liberal government?

There has been a lot of swing in the polls, but now, as it starts, both leading parties seem to share the same popular appeal but, unfortunately for the Conservatives, their popularity is more concentrated leading to fewer possible seats.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa ... table-lead

Other interesting points are who will get the third position, J. Singh and the NDP don't seem to get higher in the polls while E. May and the Greens seem to stall at the current 10%, good for them, but not enough in our current system. They might be passed by the regional party Bloc Quebecois, because they are still somewhat popular and that may mean a few more seats for them. Finally, how much will M. Bernier's libertarian party PPC will have its ass kicked is my guilty pleasure at the moment. The media has made quite some noise about them but, in the polls, they barely register as a blip, and even their leader, a rather well established MP in his constituency, might be booted out.

[Vijay]

Modi's supporters are calling for war with Pakistan.