COVID-19 thread

[Raphael]

Perhaps it's more about gardeners than farmers?

[chris_notts]

Perhaps it's more about gardeners than farmers?

As I said, I love gardening, and I spent a lot of time gardening, but I personally wouldn't say that being able to go to a garden centre is crucial at this time. I'm getting along just fine growing things from seed that I ordered right back at the beginning of the year before this all kicked off.

If they want non-established gardeners to have gardening as an outlet during lock-down, maybe we should just ramp up seed and compost deliveries? You can get a long way with a packet of seeds and a bit of compost...

[Raphael]

You've probably already seen this, but just in case you haven't - BRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSS:

https://twitter.com/zackbeauchamp/statu ... 3766443011

[dewrad]

Creepily, my husband just reminded me that Civ II ended in 2020.

[MacAnDàil]

Most people that seemed to me sensible are confirmed sensible while those who seemed lack in seriosity are also confirmed in this. The main difference is collapsologists, survivalists and other hoarders, who now seem like they are ahead of the others.

[Raphael]

The main difference is collapsologists, survivalists and other hoarders, who now seem like they are ahead of the others.

Depends. Some of them seem to be among those making the loudest demands for "re-opening", which seems to indicate that they're not at all good at actually handling emergency situations.

[quinterbeck]

The main difference is collapsologists, survivalists and other hoarders, who now seem like they are ahead of the others.

Depends. Some of them seem to be among those making the loudest demands for "re-opening", which seems to indicate that they're not at all good at actually handling emergency situations.

Assuming a pandemic was among the events they were preparing for, I'd guess they didn't expect a pandemic to look quite like this. I imagine many survivalists have something a bit more dramatic in mind...

[MacAnDàil]

The main difference is collapsologists, survivalists and other hoarders, who now seem like they are ahead of the others.

Depends. Some of them seem to be among those making the loudest demands for "re-opening", which seems to indicate that they're not at all good at actually handling emergency situations.

Oh really? Are survivalists overrepresented in protests agianst shutdown in the US?

[Linguoboy]

Oh really? Are survivalists overrepresented in protests agianst shutdown in the US?

Folks seem to be assuming so based on their preferred cosplay. I'm not sure anyone's surveyed them enough to determine what proportion are really preppers.

[zompist]

There was a fascinating post on Mefi, which unfortunately I can't find right now, about what happens when preppers encounter a real catastrophe— in that case, the devastation of Beirut.

Basically... the prepper fantasy of holding out against the world doesn't hold up. The preppers had more supplies than other people— but few of them had enough to stay well-stocked for more than a few months. So they ended up in the same situation anyway. Plus, ordinary people in catastrophes do not re-enact Lord of the Flies; for the most part they help each other as best they can. So most of the preppers ended up sheepishly sharing their stockpiles.

[Moose-tache]

Sounds kind of like this article, but I know it's not the same one: https://slate.com/culture/2017/06/what- ... lapse.html

I think most people underestimate the durability of existing institutions as well. Western observers were astonished that the North Korean regime survived the famine, and utterly stupefied that the university system remained intact the whole time. And for all its centralization, the government of North Korea was certainly more vulnerable to systemic collapse than, say, the current governments of the US, Italy, Iran, or China.

Most of the preppers I see on TV are wildly unprepared for anything short of total collapse. I mean, what happens if the Department of Agriculture survives and asks you about your non-regulation beet farm? Did you remember to bring the title to your mountain cabin with you, or are you going to have an awkward conversation with the Bureau of Land Management and the sheriff? How long do you think you'll get away with keeping your kids out of school when your bunker has no textbooks or internet connection? For most of these plans, social continuity is their biggest vulnerability.

[Raphael]

Most of the preppers I see on TV are wildly unprepared for anything short of total collapse. I mean, what happens if the Department of Agriculture survives and asks you about your non-regulation beet farm? Did you remember to bring the title to your mountain cabin with you, or are you going to have an awkward conversation with the Bureau of Land Management and the sheriff? How long do you think you'll get away with keeping your kids out of school when your bunker has no textbooks or internet connection? For most of these plans, social continuity is their biggest vulnerability.

Oh, I guess their standard procedure for those cases would be something like "make a lot of noise about how you're a glorious patriotic freedom fighter who is being victimized by unconstitutional big government oppression".

[chris_notts]

Also, "non-regulation beet farm"? Does the US regulate growth of beets for personal consumption? Or is this just the crazy US regulations about using your front garden for something productive instead of a green desert /lawn?

[MacAnDàil]

I certainly regret getting so little from the supermarket before the virus arrived here. Now I have to go the corner shops because there are massive queues to get into the supermarkets. And things are dear enougha sit is here.

[Pabappa]

Ive been getting my food at corner stores too both for that reason and because Im more comfortable in a store with just one or two other people than in a store with fifty, even if the store with fifty is much larger. And I stocked up big-time on food early on, so I dont *need* to go out, but I am just not that big of a fan of canned food. When I was sick a month ago the first solid food I was able to eat was a hot calzone from a restaurant that was (and still is) allowed to let people inside due to also selling groceries. Ive been back there many times in the past month because of how delicious that first meal was.

[MacAnDàil]

I get what you mean, especially about not just wanting to eat canned food. Me and girlfriend could theoretically survive weeks or maybe even months on porridge and lentils, but we prefer fresh fruit and veg. Indeed, this one thing we can't stock up on massively is one of the few things that are running short here (specifically onions, garlic and tomatos). We have occasionally been ordering food from some of our favourite restaurants as well, especially for her birthday.

[doctor shark]

Also, "non-regulation beet farm"? Does the US regulate growth of beets for personal consumption? Or is this just the crazy US regulations about using your front garden for something productive instead of a green desert /lawn?

The latter, though the regulations are very strongly dependent on where you live, as you can have the infamous homeowners' associations that go massively overboard with restrictions and covenants and other things to police the space and what you can grow. (Fortunately, where my mother lives, there doesn't seem to be an HOA, but there are a few rules... mostly, no livestock.) And I agree that there are far better uses than having a lawn, but some HOA's don't see it that way... and there've been some nasty lawsuits in regards to that.

I certainly regret getting so little from the supermarket before the virus arrived here. Now I have to go the corner shops because there are massive queues to get into the supermarkets. And things are dear enough as it is here.

I know the feeling. I went to Auchan yesterday to get some things due to moving in a few days, and the queue was horrendous! For a lot of small food-related things, there's a Monoprix down the road with prices that are reasonable-ish and almost no queues to go in, so I normally go there if I need things.


In stuff with me, I think everything I want to take with me is going to fit into my car, which is good, so now it's just loading, cleaning the apartment here, and then printing off the paperwork to cross the border on Tuesday. The big thing I have to decide as well is which border to go through: if I go up north via St. Vith and Verviers, it's a faster transit through Belgium, but it's not a main crossing and there's a risk that that border's closed (unlike Germany, Belgium hasn't posted a list of the open border crossings!). Going west through Arlon and up via Liège is the other option and is via a motorway, but that's a longer trek through Belgium and the legendary Walloon motorways...

[Linguoboy]

The off-topic discussion of regulating home gardens has been given its own topic.

[chris_notts]

Excess death data shows spikes significantly greater than reported cases. In these example charts from the FT, typical excess deaths are running at 50% above normal:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch ... 2353393666

[Moose-tache]

Tennessee has rolled back some quarantine measures, allowing restaurants to serve dine-in customers again in most parts of the state, with some extra regulations about hygiene and safety. The state government's position is that the state has fewer than 30 deaths per million, and the number of daily new cases was stable across nearly all of April, with the recent spike in confirmed cases due to an increase in testing, and so they've successfully "flattened the curve" and can start going back to normal. While I understand that quarantine measures will need to be lifted eventually, starting in the least-affected areas, this is definitely way too soon to be letting people back in to Waffle House. What's the over/under on a massive second wave of Covid deaths?