COVID-19 thread

[Travis B.]

People here in WI are extremely lax - in any given store that does not require masks, at least half of the people are not wearing them. Furthermore, my work made most of us come back to work, and the vast majority of my coworkers do not wear masks at work. Of course, we are in a Republican-dominated county, so this kind of thing is not surprising...

[Linguoboy]

People here in WI are extremely lax - in any given store that does not require masks, at least half of the people are not wearing them. Furthermore, my work made most of us come back to work, and the vast majority of my coworkers do not wear masks at work. Of course, we are in a Republican-dominated county, so this kind of thing is not surprising...

I was kind of curious whether y'all got a flood of Illinoisans in the days before we made the jump to Phase 4.

[Travis B.]

I was kind of curious whether y'all got a flood of Illinoisans in the days before we made the jump to Phase 4.

Milwaukee and Madison (which are predominantly Democrat) are much stricter than Waukesha county is.

[zompist]

In the week since I last checked the tallies, there have been half a million new cases-- 3/4 of them in red states. They're now ahead 1.97 million to 1.71 million.

It's all pretty depressing. Oh, and Brazil is over 2 million cases, and India just joined the million-case club.

[Moose-tache]

Quick props to West Virginia, a very conservative state with a Republican governor, which implemented strict measures early, and as of four days ago was still increasing the quarantine restrictions. #notallredstates

Anyway, I don't think it really matters what happens there, because we know how WV is going to vote. How the virus spreads in Kansas and California is pretty irrelevant to the election. Let's look at swing states!

Michigan, Pennsylvania: These are "red states" in the sense that they voted for Trump in 2016, but by current polling they strongly favor Biden. And they each have a Democratic governor. Not surprisingly, the "second wave" has barely hit Michigan, and only affected Pennsylvania a little. Cases are up, but so far not nearly as much as in the first wave, when Michigan was the hardest hit state in the Midwest and Pennsylvania was doing badly as well. If we expect high death tolls to hurt Trump in November, then we can't rely on that much in these states. Luckily, his numbers are so abysmal there it probably doesn't matter.

Florida, Arizona: These two states basically didn't have a first wave. Florida had around a thousand new cases a day back in April, but that's not horrible for a large state. Both states are experiencing more cases than ever before by a wide margin, and in both cases daily deaths have already risen well above their previous high from a couple of months ago. These are the states that are going to be hurting badly in the fall, and possibly even in November. If high death tolls mean voters turning against the GOP, these states will be the most affected. So far, it's not entirely clear that this is happening. Biden polls well ahead of Trump in both states, but I couldn't find any polls that narrow in on how those states feel about the president's virus policy specifically (nationally people approve of it about the same as they approve of him, ~40%).

Meanwhile Wisconsin defies all analysis. There seems to be a constant equilibrium between man and beast, without clear "waves." North Carolina apparently skipped the whole recovery period, with a steady increase in cases pretty much since March. Georgia had a slight dip in new cases, and so far a steady number of daily deaths, but the large growth of new cases means that an increase in deaths is only a matter of time. These last two states will soon join Arizona and Florida in the "everything is on fire" category.

If you lined up all these states and asked me which ones will be the toughest wins for Trump, I would pick the two that are suffering the least from the virus currently. So it may be true that a deadly second wave of 'Rona spells doom for the president, but it's most likely to affect him in states where he still has a chance of winning, and least likely to affect him in states that are already an uphill battle. Therefore I think this actually makes it harder to say with certainty which way swing states will go, other than to point out that Biden is currently way ahead in most of them.

EDIT: Oh shit, wrong thread!

[Ares Land]

We're getting worrying messages from the head of the scientific comittee (in other words, the guy who advises the president and government on the pandemic) and several hospitals.
They'kind of confusing, I'm afraid. Supposedly, the numbers aren't good, but the second wave is predicted for october/november. I don't understant what that means: if the numbers aren't good now, surely they'll be awful in August?

In more personal news, I have a weird cough and I feel kind of tired and achy. I don't think it's COVID-19: the virus isn't circulating much in the area, and I don't have a fever. Still, I wanted to do the responsible thing and get tested.
You can get a list of test centers from a government website. Well, except on a mobile phone, because the site's buggy. But, hey, who uses a telephone to go on the internet, really? Of the numbers listed several are wrong, one is (I swear it's true) a fax number, the other a recording that kindly informs you that they won't answer and won't take a message either.
Another informed me they don't have any appointments until August, but advises me to go to specialized test centers. Except those centers are in a crowded business district, so I expect half an hour of crowded subway, and then an hour or two standing in line on a crowded sidewalk full of vulnerable people.
Several centers asked what I wanted a test for. I was kind of dumbstruck for a minute the first time this happened. What was I supposed to say? 'Oh I'm really eager for a swap up my nose, and I just love the cheerful atmosphere of test centers full of cranky nurses.
I did get an appointment tonight because I'm a very stubborn person.

So to get back to my earlier point: I don't expect the people in charge to be 'worried' about the second wave. I expect them to take all the necessary steps to mitigate it. How are they going to do it, or get any reliable data to be worried about if they discourage testing?

OK, sorry for the long vent. I guess colds make me cranky, and I'm feeling a little guilty about complaining about my government where Americans can read...

[Raphael]

Good Luck, Ars Lande!

[Ares Land]

Good Luck, Ars Lande!

Thanks! I'm not worried at all, I don't have any of the risk factors, so COVID or not, it's just going to be an annoying cold.

More worrying: I talked a bit with the laboratory scientist (is that the correct title?) I learned that it's hard to get tested because there really aren't enough tests.
That's completely understandable: it's a new virus, there's never really been a need for testing on that scale, and PCR tests are pretty high tech, but I'm bothered by the complete lack of transparency and accountability on the part of the government and health agencies.
I do understand that they're not magicians, I don't understand being kept in the dark.

[Linguoboy]

More worrying: I talked a bit with the laboratory scientist (is that the correct title?)

If they're leading research. Otherwise I'd just call them a "lab tech".

[Ares Land]

If they're leading research. Otherwise I'd just call them a "lab tech".

Ah, thanks. On a funny linguistic notes: I read a lot of science-fiction in my teens, and 'lab tech' or other variants on 'tech' were left untranslated. I suppose the translators figured it was a fancy sci-fi term. Same story for 'medic'.

BTW, the test came back negative.

[Linguoboy]

BTW, the test came back negative.

Excellent news!

In less excellent news, the USA surpassed 4 million documented cases yesterday, but we're so inured at this point that I've yet to see this mentioned on social media or in the news media.

I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations yesterday and it seems that here in Cook County we have 100,795 reported cases in a population of 5,150,233, which works out to an infection rate of just under 2%. On the one hand, roughly half of those folks have died or recovered, but on the other studies elsewhere show that the true rate of infection is probably 4 to 8 times the reported rate. Infections aren't equally distributed throughout the population so it's probably not true that one in twelve strangers I pass is infected, but keeping that ratio in mind sure does help firm up my resolve to continue self-isolating.

I don't know the details, but apparently Trump just cancelled the Republican National Convention. It was supposed to be held in Jacksonville in Duval County, Florida. Using the same arithmetic, the infection rate there is 2.2% but with no recoveries reported yet reported and a much higher rate of new infections. (Their two-week average increase is nine times what it is here.) It was shaping up to be a complete shitshow. Now--if the experiences of the Texas GOP are any guide, it will be an online shitshow.

[Moose-tache]

Ah, thanks. On a funny linguistic notes: I read a lot of science-fiction in my teens, and 'lab tech' or other variants on 'tech' were left untranslated. I suppose the translators figured it was a fancy sci-fi term. Same story for 'medic'.

My understanding is that leaving English words untranslated in formal French writing is pretty taboo. Does that make English words more exotic and tantalizing for sci-fi authors, or am I overthinking it?

On topic: the state of Georgia is slowly turning into the opening scenes of Dawn of the Dead. I have elderly relatives there who refuse to take the problem seriously. The state government reopened restaurants in late April, with masks being optional for dine-in patrons (who refuse to wear masks despite clear pleas from the staff who have to work there to pay the bills). This is the first time since the Iraq War that government policy has threatened to kill someone in my family (if you don't include the usual redneck dangers relating to guns and diabetes). I know I should blame my idiot family members, but it was the conservative though-o-sphere that melted the reason center of their brains in the first place. Everything has been primed for this, like the final act of a play.

[Ares Land]

My understanding is that leaving English words untranslated in formal French writing is pretty taboo. Does that make English words more exotic and tantalizing for sci-fi authors, or am I overthinking it?

Yes, indeed, you don't normally leave English words untranslated, and some translator will even try and find equivalents to coroner or district attorney, even though there's no good French translation for these. French sci-fi authors never use English words either. If they need a neologism, they'll avoid English like the plague.
My theory is that 'tech' and 'medic' would work as French-based neologisms; they'd just be short for 'médical' and 'technicien'.

[Moose-tache]

You probably know that Republicans are less likely to take Covid-19 seriously than Democrats. But did you know that their willingness to take the virus seriously has actually gone down over the course of the second wave?

That image is based on this study. Since Republicans are more likely to live in states badly affected by the current increase in cases and deaths, we can speculate (though we can't say with certainty without more granular data) that Republicans are less afraid of dying now despite being more likely to die than they were in April.

[Linguoboy]

The other day my sister and I were speculating on just how closely you had to know someone seriously ill or dead from Coronavirus in order to start taking it seriously. (She still lives in Missouri and her in-laws have wholeheartedly adopted the Conservosphere "no-worse-than-the-flu" talking point.) I suggested that the one silver lining to the grim numbers from Florida is that people have retired there from all over the eastern half of the country, so widespread fatalities there could end up shaking up conservative bubbles all over the American South and Midwest.

I suppose at some point we'll have enough deaths nationwide to reach a tipping point. I sure hope it's a lot fewer than I fear it's going to be.

[Ahzoh]

I'm quite distressed how my sister has become the sort of person who is: afraid of 5g wi-fi, believes that masks are more dangerous than the virus, and is opposed to the mandatory mask mandates and the lockdowns.

[alice]

Turns out we knew about this 50 years ago.

[Kuchigakatai]

Just realized COVID gave a new emotional dimension to the expression "to avoid sth like the plague".

[Linguoboy]

Just realized COVID gave a new emotional dimension to the expression "to avoid sth like the plague".

There's a meme going around to the effect of "We need a new expression because it turns out humans don't avoid the plague".

[Moose-tache]

Well, recently the death toll in the US passed the usual number of annual deaths from accidents, lung disease, and other major killers. That means that even if things get much better immediately, Covid-19 will be the third most common cause of death for Americans in the year 2020. Still a long way to go to beat the half a million annual cancer deaths, but if there is anything I know about America it's that we are not daunted by a challenge.