COVID-19 thread

[Ares Land]

I'm getting back to work next week, and I'm a little annoyed, no, really annoyed at my workplace for requiring full time on-site presence again, even though there are, apparently, signs that the second wave has begun.

The government has been going on all summer about how we've been naughty all summer, and irresponsibly spreading COVID all over the place. (People are actually pretty careful and considerate. The government is trying to cover up the whole facemask fiasco and April, and that several years of cutting funds to public hospital has been a major factor in the crisis. Yes, people complain because masks are uncomfortable, but they still wear them). The thing is, my employer is the government.

If State institutions can't be trusted to lead by example, what will private companies do? Right now, France is closed for business, as is customary in August.
Come September, 6 million workers in the Paris area will get into overcrowded public transport. Masks are useful, sure, but not when people are crammed into each other's armpits on crowded subway cars.

Oh, by the way, did they do anything about our overloaded public hospitals? Nope.

So apparently, our politicians are insanely jealous of the Trump administration's track records!

(It's a lot like environmental issues. Macron and the government have done nothing except produce a great deal of wind and hot air, and they're in bed with every possible lobby, but no, let's blame people who let the water run while they brush their teeth instead...)

[Moose-tache]

So the second wave in the US involved many more cases than the first, but (assuming we may now court fate by analyzing it as a completed phenomenon) it caused fewer deaths than the first. This trend has already been noted in Europe (1, 2, 3), but it seems to be nearly universal around the world, at least among countries that have experienced two large, distinct waves. This raises some interesting questions.

If this trend continues, will Covid-19 eventually become trivial enough that we just accept it as a normal part of life, even without a vaccine? In some countries the death rate among recent cases has already fallen to around the same level as normal influenza, and even a bad flu outbreak causes little disruption to society.

Also assuming for the moment that this trend continues, will this affect the politics of health response in the US, Brazil, and other countries where the virus has been highly politicized? After all, if the mortality drops far enough, eventually the people insisting we all go back to crowded diners and church sing-alongs will be... right.

If this trend is reversed with a deadlier third wave, will we be better or worse at dealing with it? In some parts of the world, complacency during the early stages of the outbreak carried over well into the deadliest period of the spread of the virus. It may be difficult to convince people to support even greater social atomization and economic recession after a period of relative normalcy.

[Raphael]

Unrelated to the most recent posts, I had two doctors' appointments, one last week and one this week - nothing Covid-related, just routine stuff - and, well, the changed procedures to handle Covid made the whole experience so much more pleasant than it had previously been - no more overcrowded waiting rooms, for instance - that a part of me almost wishes they'll keep the new procedures after Covid is gone (if it'll ever be gone).

[Torco]

tbh I sometimes wish covid never ended. working from home has been pleasant af, and I don't look forwards to again going into an office (that doesn't have any reason to exist). thankfully, it doesn't seem like my company has any plans to get back in the short term.

[Linguoboy]

tbh I sometimes wish covid never ended. working from home has been pleasant af, and I don't look forwards to again going into an office (that doesn't have any reason to exist). thankfully, it doesn't seem like my company has any plans to get back in the short term.

I'm hoping that one of the permanent changes to come out of this is the realisation that a whole lot of work which wasn't being done at home can be done at home without any significant loss of productivity (which I think is a major part of corporate resistance to it--along with the general unwillingness of managers to learn any new skills, such as managing people at a distance). Unfortunately, I think this might be accompanied by the realisation that companies can save lots of money if they make employees personally responsible for things they were covering (like equipment, sanitation, heating and cooling) and--needless to say--none of these savings will be passed on to the employees themselves nor to customers.

Right now I'm sitting in my dining room, watching what may be the last beautiful day of summer slip away, and thinking I'll feel a right arsehole if I stayed in all this time only to get COVID anyway during the bitter winter months.

[zompist]

Here's a great article summarizing a new theory on what Covid does. The big thing: it weakens the walls of your blood vessels, so the heart is damaged, and fluid fills your lungs. Another effect is to produce hyaluronic acid, which turns liquids into gels. This is why oxygenation doesn't always work: it's like trying to breathe through Jello.

So, sure, just like the flu. Oh, we learned today that a close friend is in the hospital with Covid, intubated, no visitors allowed. So maybe I have less patience than usual with the hot take of "a thousand deaths a day is actually OK so the consies are right."

[Kuchigakatai]

Very interesting Twitter thread (with colourful graphs!), from a Swiss epidemiologist (I think that's what she is), on reopening cities, then the youngest people getting infected without producing many grave consequences (deaths), and gradually getting so widely infected that the vulnerable older population gets sick again, causing deaths, which triggers some reclosing again. All with a delay of a month from the youth infections to the widening disease of course, to make matters worse.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1296080742607355904


Depressing Twitter thread on mainstream media prioritizing politics/Trump over the coronavirus back in February:
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1303747775037923331


From an article back in The Telegraph back in April:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ronavirus/
I first thought about face masks at around 4pm on Wednesday, November 28, 2007, when a small but agitated civil servant flung open the door of my office shouting, “Take it down! Take it down!”. I was editing the NHS website and we had just published a story which suggested that face masks had helped bring the 2003/4 Sars epidemic under control in south east Asia.

The official was part of the DHSC’s pandemic planning team. She was very angry and wanted the story taken down immediately. She had just been to see the then Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, and had explained to him, “in terms he could understand”, that there was really no need for the UK to hold a stockpile of masks, she said. The story we had just published threatened to undo all of that by giving credence to an “minor academic paper” which said the opposite. I told her to hop-off.


A COVID-19 arm tattoo, from an article in The Sun:
https://i.imgur.com/fzVpUHq.jpg

[alynnidalar]

A COVID-19 arm tattoo, from an article in The Sun:
https://i.imgur.com/fzVpUHq.jpg

Bit premature in September, innit?

[Torco]

tbh I sometimes wish covid never ended. working from home has been pleasant af, and I don't look forwards to again going into an office (that doesn't have any reason to exist). thankfully, it doesn't seem like my company has any plans to get back in the short term.

I'm hoping that one of the permanent changes to come out of this is the realisation that a whole lot of work which wasn't being done at home can be done at home without any significant loss of productivity (which I think is a major part of corporate resistance to it--along with the general unwillingness of managers to learn any new skills, such as managing people at a distance). Unfortunately, I think this might be accompanied by the realisation that companies can save lots of money if they make employees personally responsible for things they were covering (like equipment, sanitation, heating and cooling) and--needless to say--none of these savings will be passed on to the employees themselves nor to customers.

Right now I'm sitting in my dining room, watching what may be the last beautiful day of summer slip away, and thinking I'll feel a right arsehole if I stayed in all this time only to get COVID anyway during the bitter winter months.

preach, brother. nevertheless, I'm up for that tradeoff: I need to have a computer anyway, and it moves us a bit closer, though perhaps trivially so, to worker ownership of the means of production. can you imagine a world where, like half of people telecommute? lots more people would move to rural areas, that's for sure. especially if musk gets his internet by satellite thing going.

https://i.imgur.com/fzVpUHq.jpg

love it.

[Raphael]

So major French cities get a nocturnal curfew, and in parts of Germany, there are reports that the toilet paper shortages have returned. Sigh.

Edit: there are first reports that German hotspots will get a nightly curfew, too. A meeting between federal and state leaders has been going on for quite a while now, and is still going on.

Edit: Oh, apparently not a complete curfew, just mandatory closing times for restaurants, bars, etc.

[doctor shark]

Here in the Nether Regions, we're back into a partial lockdown as of... er, a few minutes ago. Face masks are now compulsory in enclosed public spaces (was not the case before!), the purchase of alcohol is prohibited after 20:00 (as is possessing it in public), and sit-down food service is prohibited, among other measures. (And now most things must close by 20:00, with few exceptions.) These measures are in place at least for the next two weeks, but, honestly, I don't see much hope for this winter until/unless a vaccine or effective antiviral treatment is found/approved...

[Ares Land]

The curfews frankly annoy me.

With the kids and all, of course, it's not going to change anything to my life. It's more the principle of the things that bothers me.
There's of course, the sheer absurdity of the thing. I didn't know viruses were nocturnal!
What's really getting on my nerves is the notion that the epidemic is somehow our fault and that we must be punished.
Does anyone seriously believe that the virus is seriously transmitted through wild private parties and drunken nights at the bar? And not, you know, getting to work in overcrowded tin cans?

Macron's been extremely careful on working from home; but really that should have been made compulsory a long time ago. I know executives hate WFH -- and you know, I do understand their reasons (*); but I don't know, maybe everyone could make a bit of an effort.

(*) IME, hard workers work harder, and others simply disappear from the face of the Earth. But, you know, who cares? It's a pandemic. We can do with a few slackers.

Of course, I hope the curfews will contain the second wave a little and ease up the pressure on hospitals a bit... But honestly, i don't believe it; I suppose we'd better prepare for lockdown. (On the toilet paper front, anyway, I think we're ready.)

[Travis B.]

I didn't know viruses were nocturnal!

That is my thought too. We haven't had curfews here in Wisconsin, but except for early on we have not had much of anything thanks to Republicans doing their best to obstruct any measures against the virus...

[zompist]

Does anyone seriously believe that the virus is seriously transmitted through wild private parties and drunken nights at the bar? And not, you know, getting to work in overcrowded tin cans?

Well, yes. Bars and restaurants are some of the worst places to be during this pandemic: people crowded together, indoors, without masks, speaking loudly. All these are great ways to spread airborne particles.

Subways are not great, but they're better if people are wearing masks and not talking loudly in each other's faces.

--

BTW, here's an interesting article on why Germany is doing way better than its neighbors.

[Ares Land]

*, speaking loudly.

*hits forehead, feeling stupid*
You're entirely right, of course.

BTW, here's an interesting article on why Germany is doing way better than its neighbors.

My general impression is that German leadership has been consistently better than its neighbors', both at the local and federal level. All recent crises have been handled competently, and without much fuss.

My own theory is that narcissists don't do as well in German politics as they do in say, French politics.

[MacAnDàil]

Don't want to be too obvious, but Germany seems to have grown allergic to narcissists since 45...

Pubs and so on are an easy place to catch Covid of course, but the time-based curfew has been seen as problematic in causing people to rush out of pubs all at once, and not in dregs and drabs.

Also, the rules are often based on geopolitical borders, even if islands, such as Arran, lack cases for four months.

[Raphael]

Don't get your hope up too high, MacAnDàil - the hard right is on the rise, and the "Covid is a hoax" fringe conspiracy theorists regularly have their big protests. Meanwhile, as usual, everyone else is complaining about how poorly the whole thing is being handled. KInd of like the different reactions that foreign visitors to Germany and actual Germans tend to have to experiencing the German rail system.

Oh, and I'd be careful about believing anything written in Vox. Didn't they once publish a piece on the Middle East Conflict that "explained" that there was a tunnel connection between Gaza and the West Bank?

[Ares Land]

Hey, German trains are a great way to enjoy a leisurely ride through rural Thuringia at a pace slightly superior to that of a two-legged donkey! I also have fond memories of having a train inexplicably cancelled in mid-ride and being dropped in Mannheim (nowhere near my destination) without further ado.

That said, looking at the numbers, Germany does seem to be handling this a lot better than we do, with fewer deaths, and more tests available.

[Linguoboy]

COVID has come to where I live: Someone in my building went in hospital Sunday to give birth and was notified upon her discharge that she'd tested positive. She's non-asymptomatic and she and her husband are now self-quarantining for two weeks. They sent an e-mail to all of us neighbours just to let us know what was going on.

The likelihood of me being exposed is very low, but it's enough that I've taken some extra precautions (like postponing a trip to the dentist). I'm hoping it serves as a wake-up call to everyone. We were getting pretty lax in our protocols over the summer, which is understandable given that the spread was slowing and everyone in our circles was healthy, but which caused me concern going into winter.

[MacAnDàil]

Don't get your hope up too high, MacAnDàil - the hard right is on the rise, and the "Covid is a hoax" fringe conspiracy theorists regularly have their big protests. Meanwhile, as usual, everyone else is complaining about how poorly the whole thing is being handled. KInd of like the different reactions that foreign visitors to Germany and actual Germans tend to have to experiencing the German rail system.

Oh, and I'd be careful about believing anything written in Vox. Didn't they once publish a piece on the Middle East Conflict that "explained" that there was a tunnel connection between Gaza and the West Bank?

While I have seen the hoaxers from watching German comedy news like Extra3, I have also seen the polls where the AfD has reduced vote intention compared to last election. Basically, it's good compared to what foreigners expect, but not as good as Germans expect themselves.