Chance resemblances are common, but they become more common as more lexical material is added. Three correspondences between two languages with only a few hundred attested words each is 'qualitatively' more than three correspondences between two languages with comprehensive dictionaries.bradrn wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:23 amHmm, I suspect we’re getting to the root of the disagreement here. In this particular case, I don’t agree that quality is better than quantity: as I said, chance resemblances are very common, so having just a few correspondences doesn’t necessarily prove anything — regardless of whether we’re looking at a poorly-attested substrate or not. (And what do you mean by ‘quality’ anyway?)Talskubilos wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:14 am The thing is we're dealing with substrate loanwords, and unfortunately the material is scanty, so quality primes over quantity.
If you're comparing a language with only a few hundred attested words (would I be correct in assuming the Gaulish corpus is not very large?) to an entire family whose living members have comprehensive dictionaries, though... I'm not sure how the numbers work out there.
Man, facts aren't even real. Unless you believe in Descartes' a priori proof of the existence of a benevolent god (or something to equivalent effect), you can't totally rule out Cartesian demons - you can assign something probability epsilon, but not zero. (And even if you do believe in that proof, who's to say the Cartesian demons can't mess with your perception of logic?)Talskubilos wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:41 amNot more "established fact" that the existence of PIE, which is a theory.
That's not to say you can assign numerical probabilities (or even ranges) to historical-linguistic theories, of course. But there's still some vague and qualitative idea of likelihood. The Proto-Indo-European theory "is more likely than" the Proto-Dene-Yeniseian one because there's more shared and seemingly inherited material - not just lexical material, but morphological and syntactic material, and even poetic set phrases preserved in exact cognates in multiple Indo-European languages. And the Proto-Dene-Yeniseian theory is more likely than the Proto-Amerind one for similar reasons. (At the same time, the theory that says that Finnish and Estonian are related is more likely than the Proto-Indo-European theory, for similar reasons - some Finns apparently "learn Estonian" by memorizing rules for mechanical conversion between the two languages. And the Proto-Romance theory is more likely than the Proto-Indo-European theory for trivial statistical reasons.)
The question is about the weight of the evidence, and the process of examining a theory is about refining this vague qualitative likelihood estimate, by adding to (or subtracting from) the weight of the evidence. There are some methodological points here. Some Starostinites complain that, although comparative reconstruction is taken as the standard of proof for cladistic relationship, you have to have some idea of cladistic relationship before you even know what to compare; but this isn't really a point in the Starostinites' favor. You do have to have some idea of cladistic relationship before you know what to compare - this can be the general impression of similarity (as originally with PIE), comparison of pronouns (as with Wurm's preliminary classificatory work on Papuan), mass lexical comparison, or whatever. But the process of applying the comparative method is about testing and refining the initial hypothesis - comparison of pronouns produces results that are, in some vague but entirely real way, less likely than demonstration of regular sound correspondences, inheritance of lexical and morphological material, etc.