Elections in various countries

[mèþru]

Tel Aviv Mayor and veteran Labour Party member (in multiple senses of veteran) Ron Huldai is setting up a new centre-left party, as is former Yesh Atid MK Ofer Shelah. It's getting crowded in this niche.
Major Blue & White member Avi Nissenkorn is joining Huldai's party, named "The Israelis"
I'm actually kind of excited for this. If anyone can be trusted to revitalise the left, it's Ron Huldai.
And economist Yaron Zelekha is also founding a new party. Three new parties in one week!
Meanwhile, Gabi Ashkenazi left Blue & White saying he's taking a break from politics and Eizenkot isn't joining politics. This means less former generals with big egos and is a huge problem for Gantz because Ashkenazi was one of the last selling points for people to vote Blue & White. At this rate I would be surprised if Blue & White fails to clear the threshold to get seats (3.25%, so you either have 4 or more seats in the Knesset or you get nothing)

[mèþru]

There's been another new party announced in Israel, and the Yamina electoral alliance is splitting.
Aryeh Deri is being charged with tax evasion.
Bibi is trying to claim he has sole authority over Iran policy and is trying to shut Gantz out of decision making in that area. He claims now that only things bearing his signature can be implemented. This might be illegal and definitely is at the least a mini-coup.
Yesh Atid signed a surplus vote sharing agreement with Israel Beiteinu and New Hope with New Right (Bennett's party within Yamina)
And Netanyahu is now running a campaign to win the Arab vote after years of warning that Arab voters are a threat to democracy.

Things are hectic

[mèþru]

I saw a poll for the scenario where Ehud Barak is in charge of Havoda again. I pray he doesn't actually run in the primaries. I agree with him on a lot of things, but he is electoral poison to everything he touches and may or may not have child rape accusations against him (I don't know if Dershowitz made it up or if Barak is indeed one claimed by Giuffre as one of her rapists). Arabs hate him due to his handling of the October 2000 riots, and winning back Arab voters who abandoned left-wing non-Arab parties is crucial to rebuilding the Israeli left. Most non-Arabs hate him for evacuating Southern Lebanon, which then became controlled by Hezbollah - which started persecuting the Christians who allied with Israel and building up military and tunnels to commit terror attacks. Ehud Barak still says evacuating Lebanon was the right thing - and while I generally agree with Barak I disagree here and see why it's a deal breaker to most other Israelis.

[Linguoboy]

Good piece in the Irish Times about the imminent possibility of a referendum on Irish unification: https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/a-re ... -1.4454681. Happily, it seems the Irish government has looked at the UK's Brexit experience, asked itself "How do we avoid a cock-up of that monumental scale?" and decided that the answer is to start a commission to examine the question now so that whenever Northern Ireland initiates the process they can hit the ground running with a viable plan.

[doctor shark]

Well, the government in the Netherlands just fell over a tax and benefits scandal. It's probably not going to trigger an election earlier than originally scheduled (March), but it could make the run-up quite interesting...

[MacAnDàil]

Yeah, it seems thousands of people forgot a signature or something minor like that, and were branded fraudsters and got told to pay it all back when that was a major source of income.

[MacAnDàil]

What have you seen of the riots in the Netherlands, Doctor Shark?

I hope what's happening in Russia with Navalny will make most Putin-worshippers think twice, especially among Yellow Jackets.

[Torco]

What have you seen of the riots in the Netherlands, Doctor Shark?

I hope what's happening in Russia with Navalny will make most Putin-worshippers think twice, especially among Yellow Jackets.

in my mind, it is the case that certain kinds of wasps support putin but shouldn't due to this post. i approve of this

[Ryusenshi]

The other day I saw something really rare on Twitter: a Macron supporter. Like, someone saying the government is doing a good job, and encouraging them to keep up the good work. I had never seen that before, so it came as a surprise. Usually, I see left-wing people excoriating Macron for being too right-wing, and right-wing people excoriating him for being too left-wing (sometimes for the exact same decisions).

[Ares Land]

The other day I saw something really rare on Twitter: a Macron supporter. Like, someone saying the government is doing a good job, and encouraging them to keep up the good work. I had never seen that before, so it came as a surprise. Usually, I see left-wing people excoriating Macron for being too right-wing, and right-wing people excoriating him for being too left-wing (sometimes for the exact same decisions).

Oh, I don't think Macron supporters would dare get into politics on Twitter

It's the incompetence that bothers me myself -- I do believe in listening to both left-wingers and right-wingers, both sides have a point and all that, but we're getting the worst parts of both left and right.

That said, I do think Macron has a lot of support, especially among the silent majority.

[Rounin Ryuuji]

All this makes me realise I know extremely little about Macron other than that he both exists, and isn't Le Pen, and that second is, I suppose, a point in his favour, at very least.

[Ares Land]

All this makes me realise I know extremely little about Macron other than that he both exists, and isn't Le Pen, and that second is, I suppose, a point in his favour, at very least.

To be fair, existing and not being Le Pen is the entire point.

He was a former of minister of Hollande (Socialist party, actually left of center) with heavy centrist, if not conservative leaning and made a successful presidential bid, as socialist party heavyweights threw their weight behind him (the actual primary winner was, well, too socialist for the socialists, as it happens...), Fillon (right-wing, the expected winner) was involved in a scandal, and Le Pen being, well, a fascist.
The general idea is that he tries to aim for a reasonable middle way between left-wing and right-wing.

Policy is actually fairly consensual, and pretty much ISO Standard European Right-Wing. Good points include being young, a relative newcomer, and having actually read a book once. (Generally people have been around forever

The more enthusiastic left-wingers and right-wingers are pissed off that he managed to be elected, especially given the nasty bits of politicking involved. The far-right are pissed off that he beat Marine Le Pen in what might have been their only reasonable chance of being elected.

Among the rest, he's not unpopular I think, consensual policies being after all, consensual.


Now, and the following is highly subjective... I didn't vote for him (didn't like his face, basically) but was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But I think he might the worst president France has had so far in my lifetime.

Generally speaking, he's been extra nasty to illegal immigrants, we've never had more fascists around, police violence and infiltration by the far right has gone from 'a little worrying' to entirely out of control, there have been riots in the streets (with Macron unable to either keep the rioters happy or keep them from disturbing the peace), the economy still sucks, public services have never been so deplorable.
Reforms in education are nonsensical, and the ministers can't get along with the teachers' union. Strikes in the transport industry is seriously affecting our capacity to get around.
Macron is not a global warming denier, but being aware of the gravity of the crisis, and doing absolutely nothing is in my view even worse than just denying it exists.
Finally the handling of the pandemic is the icing of the cake, since we have more deaths than the United States, relative to the population, with far more restrictive measures.
To which I should add the general...indignified role of the administration. (We've been through 'party in a night club in the middle of a riot guy', 'you need special training to wear a mask woman' 'dickpic guy'. Prominent members of the administration include now Suspected Rapist, Saul Goodman, and Racist Fashion Blogger.
(Sorry. I guess I had some steam to vent.)

[Rounin Ryuuji]

All this makes me realise I know extremely little about Macron other than that he both exists, and isn't Le Pen, and that second is, I suppose, a point in his favour, at very least.

To be fair, existing and not being Le Pen is the entire point.

I had a vague idea of this being the case already, but I'm not particularly well-versed in French politics, other than having some understanding that, in France, expressing one's political opinions is more common and accepted than in the United States (where I do it anyway).

He was a former of minister of Hollande (Socialist party, actually left of center) with heavy centrist, if not conservative leaning and made a successful presidential bid, as socialist party heavyweights threw their weight behind him (the actual primary winner was, well, too socialist for the socialists, as it happens...), Fillon (right-wing, the expected winner) was involved in a scandal,

Right-wingers seem to view embroiling themselves in these as some sort of ironic game.

and Le Pen being, well, a fascist.

The only thing I was very sure about French politics is, well, this.

The general idea is that he tries to aim for a reasonable middle way between left-wing and right-wing.

Policy is actually fairly consensual, and pretty much ISO Standard European Right-Wing. Good points include being young, a relative newcomer, and having actually read a book once. (Generally people have been around forever

The more enthusiastic left-wingers and right-wingers are pissed off that he managed to be elected, especially given the nasty bits of politicking involved. The far-right are pissed off that he beat Marine Le Pen in what might have been their only reasonable chance of being elected.

Among the rest, he's not unpopular I think, consensual policies being after all, consensual.

Does "consensual" here mean he tends to focus on consensus-building? If so, that seems a very uncommon use of the word in English.

Now, and the following is highly subjective... I didn't vote for him (didn't like his face, basically)

Google indicates that he is mildly unattractive.

but was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. But I think he might the worst president France has had so far in my lifetime.

I thought both things about Trump, albeit replace "France" with "The United States", and add in a heap of "I'm pretty sure this is going to be an absolute disaster."

Generally speaking, he's been extra nasty to illegal immigrants, we've never had more fascists around, police violence and infiltration by the far right has gone from 'a little worrying' to entirely out of control, there have been riots in the streets (with Macron unable to either keep the rioters happy or keep them from disturbing the peace), the economy still sucks, public services have never been so deplorable.
Reforms in education are nonsensical, and the ministers can't get along with the teachers' union. Strikes in the transport industry is seriously affecting our capacity to get around.
Macron is not a global warming denier, but being aware of the gravity of the crisis, and doing absolutely nothing is in my view even worse than just denying it exists.
Finally the handling of the pandemic is the icing of the cake, since we have more deaths than the United States, relative to the population, with far more restrictive measures.
To which I should add the general...indignified role of the administration. (We've been through 'party in a night club in the middle of a riot guy', 'you need special training to wear a mask woman' 'dickpic guy'. Prominent members of the administration include now Suspected Rapist, Saul Goodman, and Racist Fashion Blogger.
(Sorry. I guess I had some steam to vent.)

That's all right. Your picture of him makes him look grossly incompetent. I shall probably do some research to form an actual opinion sometime later.

[MacAnDàil]

Ouch. First neck-and-neck second round poll between Macron and LePen: https://www.nouvelobs.com/election-pres ... -2022.html. Ah! I'm not sure whether I should have studied French in the first place.

[Ares Land]

*Deep sigh*. Yeah. Too depressing to comment on.
Besides, it makes me mad at everyone. (The left for being so unwilling to show a united front, Macron for fucking up so much he could be defeated by a female pig in a blonde wig, the right for being closet fascists, .the media for treating her as His Majesty's Loyal Opposition,...)

[MacAnDàil]

And of course the Far right itself, acting like the biggest problem is people moving house from one country to another.

And the level of the debate: it's hard enough debating against the far right or people considering voting that way, but it's even more deplorable when you get answers like "ah but is LePen a member of the Illuminati like Macron?". When you're too busy debating the existence of reality, what should be the debate - policy - is left to the background or completely misinterpreted.

[Travis B.]

The problem is people treating the far right as if it were even a legitimate option, when in any right mind it should be treated as beyond the pale of consideration. Of course, the kind of people who think that Macron is a member of the Illuminati do not care about such things.

[Ares Land]

And the level of the debate: it's hard enough debating against the far right or people considering voting that way, but it's even more deplorable when you get answers like "ah but is LePen a member of the Illuminati like Macron?". When you're too busy debating the existence of reality, what should be the debate - policy - is left to the background or completely misinterpreted.

I'm tempted to out-conspiracy them by answering: 'Yes. Of course she is. Why do you think she polls so high in the first place?'
Or for extra trollery: 'Oh, yeah she is, I'll say hello for you at the next meeting.'

(One of my favorite jokes: the Moon landing was staged by NASA and they did hire Stanley Kubrick to film it. But he was so obsessive they had to shoot on location.)

To be honest, the whole affair makes me devise conspiracy theories of my own. Like, isn't her rise in the polls kind of planned? I mean, why is the RN everywhere in the media? How come Muslims must be treated as terrorists until proven innocent but somehow fascists are treated like sacred cows?

I mean, yes, terrorist threat and all that, but Muslim parties don't run nationally and get negligible results locally so our potential for Sharia low is still fairly low. Whereas, you know, the RN is everywhere.
I mean, by all means, let Marine Le Pen run, by all means. But first, let her publicly renounce her father on national television. (He's after all, a notorious antisemite and opposed to women's rights.) Then let her condemn some statements some of the most creative people on the far right. A public renouncement of Soral, Le Lay and Ryssen would be a nice start. Add some of the intriguing characters in the RN old guard.
Then she can run.

[doctor shark]

What have you seen of the riots in the Netherlands, Doctor Shark?

I hope what's happening in Russia with Navalny will make most Putin-worshippers think twice, especially among Yellow Jackets.

Oh, wow, didn't see this... shows how much I'm paying attention!

To be honest, most of the riots died off within three or four days and really only took place in bigger cities (so definitely not in tiny Wageningen), but they were a bit of a wake-up call to the government about the forces at play, especially proceeding into March's election. Now the riots are a bit of a memory, and, as far as I can tell, a lot of the protests tend to die out very quickly, as the measures are fairly accepted by the Dutch population at large. Both the curfew and the lockdown have been extended until early March, but the extension really hasn't seemed to incite controversy.


Now the big news is the snowstorm and the anemic and very slow rollout of vaccines here. (They claimed it was due to "setting up a registration system", but, really, they knew that the vaccines, in multiple kinds, would be coming soon-ish and they still didn't get ready?) And with the election around the corner... the most recent polling numbers suggest that the current coalition would not have the numbers to continue. But the VVD, Rutte's party and the lead party in the coalition, have managed to remain reasonably popular during the pandemic, even despite the child welfare benefits scandal, but their numbers aren't much higher in the polls compared to the last election (last time, they earned 33 seats, and the polls show 35-ish or so; however, this is a major turnaround from pre-pandemic where they were at 20-25 or so!) and their coalition partners aren't doing too well, especially D66 (left-leaning liberal).

Considering that the PVV (Geert Wilders' party; think a bit like the former French Front National), which consistently polls in second (~25 or so seats), is surrounded by a cordon sanitaire of sorts, as is a minor party, FvD (that also did well in some elections a few years previous), most successful coalitions would likely need to involve the VVD, so Rutte probably could be Prime Minister for a bit longer. Though we'll see if anything spectacular happens in the interim...

What might be worth mentioning here is that, while the Netherlands has a proportional electoral system, it does not have an electoral threshold (the effective threshold is 0.67%, enough for one seat in the House of Representatives). A total of 37 lists have qualified for all the districts, but less than half are likely to secure any seats, and the kingmakers are more than likely the VVD (right-leaning liberal), CDA (Christian democrats), PvdA (Labour party), D66, and maybe GL (Greens). But we'll see if the Netherlands breaks their record for government formation negotiations length, which was over 7 months after the last election.

[MacAnDàil]

Of course, the kind of people who think that Macron is a member of the Illuminati do not care about such things.

This is one of those people who turned to conspiracisim within the past year.

And the level of the debate: it's hard enough debating against the far right or people considering voting that way, but it's even more deplorable when you get answers like "ah but is LePen a member of the Illuminati like Macron?". When you're too busy debating the existence of reality, what should be the debate - policy - is left to the background or completely misinterpreted.

I'm tempted to out-conspiracy them by answering: 'Yes. Of course she is. Why do you think she polls so high in the first place?'
Or for extra trollery: 'Oh, yeah she is, I'll say hello for you at the next meeting.'

(One of my favorite jokes: the Moon landing was staged by NASA and they did hire Stanley Kubrick to film it. But he was so obsessive they had to shoot on location.)

To be honest, the whole affair makes me devise conspiracy theories of my own. Like, isn't her rise in the polls kind of planned? I mean, why is the RN everywhere in the media? How come Muslims must be treated as terrorists until proven innocent but somehow fascists are treated like sacred cows?

I mean, yes, terrorist threat and all that, but Muslim parties don't run nationally and get negligible results locally so our potential for Sharia low is still fairly low. Whereas, you know, the RN is everywhere.
I mean, by all means, let Marine Le Pen run, by all means. But first, let her publicly renounce her father on national television. (He's after all, a notorious antisemite and opposed to women's rights.) Then let her condemn some statements some of the most creative people on the far right. A public renouncement of Soral, Le Lay and Ryssen would be a nice start. Add some of the intriguing characters in the RN old guard.
Then she can run.

I thought about saying something along the lines of "If by 'Illuminati/NWO, you mean rich people hiding things, the father Lepen and other RN figures are mentioned in Panama Papers" but he deleted it. And Marine Lepen stands to inherit the wealth Jean-Marie Lepen has stashed away. Which is probably why she wants to reduce inheritance tax.

Also, they could just say "need to have a clean slate with the justice system" which was part of En Marche's programme to start with (and Yellow Jackets'!) so they're implementing their manifesto, and a popular measure.