Elections in various countries

[Ares Land]

Thanks. It's good to see this explained.

[Raphael]

And here's the the exit-poll based prognosis for today's state legislative election in the most populous German state, North Rhine-Westphalia:

CDU 35.0 percent (up 2.0 percent compared to the previous election in the same state),
SPD 27.5 percent (down 3.7 percent compared to the previous election in the same state, worst result in that state ever),
FDP 5.0 percent (down 7.6 percent compared to the previous election in the same state, may or may not make it into the legislature),
AfD 6.0 percent (down 1.4 percent compared to the previous election in the same state),
Greens 18.5 percent (up 12.1 percent compared to the previous election in the same state),
and The Left 2.1 percent (down 2.8 percent compared to the previous election in the same state).

[hwhatting]

Final (or rather, "preliminary official") result:
CDU 35.7%, SPD 26.7%, Greens 18.2%, FDP 5.9%, AfD 5.4% (these parties get seats), the Left 2.1%, others 6.0%.
So the FDP is in the Landtag, meaning that the potential coalitions are "Grand" coalition (CDU / SPD), black-green (CDU / Greens) or traffic light (SPD / Greens / FDP) like the current federal government. The SPD will be reluctant to go for Grand, as it has cost them votes almost every time they did it in the last 20 years, so the Greens are the kingmakers. The current conservative black-yellow (CDU / FDP) coalition is definitely out for not mastering enough votes.
The media spin this as a rebuke to Scholz and a vindication for the Greens. The CDU is in the odd position of having won the election, but being in danger of losing the state government.

[Ares Land]

NUPES (the decidedly not catchy name for the new left-wing electoral alliance here in France) now has an official campaign platform.

It's extremely ambitious but a very good platform nonetheless.

The regrettable thing is that they still support leaving NATO. In practical terms, I don't worry overmuch about it: leaving NATO is impossible in the current situation anyway, but it's still stupid. Ah well.
The good news is that they switched from the usual LFI position on Europe (unclear, possibly dangerous) to something a lot more reasonable, and in fact proposals I can agree with.

It's all very theoretical anyway; NUPES is very high in the opinion polls, higher than Macron's own electoral alliance; but due to the electoral system Macron is still getting his majority.

[MacAnDàil]

I think NUPES is chantable: NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES!

Who still supports leaving NATO? Because there's nothing in the NUPES deals about leaving NATO, as this Green senator underlines: https://twitter.com/Melanie_Vogel_/stat ... 5598372864.

The second round is hard to predict and many pollsters avoid trying.

[Ares Land]

LFI and the communists; check out the last paragraph:
https://nupes-2022.fr/le-programme/

To be specific, yes, part of NUPES (LFI, communists) is in favor of leaving NATO, the rest are opposed (PS, EELV)

[Raphael]

I think NUPES is chantable: NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES!

Shouldn't that be monosyllabic in French?

[Ares Land]

I think NUPES is chantable: NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES!

Shouldn't that be monosyllabic in French?

The pronunciation's not obvious from the acronym and in fact nobody's really sure how you're meant to pronounce it.
I've heard /ny.pɛs/, /nyp/ and even /nyps/.

[bradrn]

So, the Australian election is today! Hooray, hooray, hooray. Myself, I hate all my local candidates equally, except of course the ones I hate even more, so voting could be a bit tricky. But I’ll find something to write down on the ballot paper, I’m sure.

As for the campaign itself: put briefly, it managed to surpass everyone’s expectations by somehow being even worse than imagined. As previously mentioned, both Liberal and Labor parties have made a determined run on a platform of practically nothing whatsoever, which has been interesting to experience. The biggest surprise was that Albanese turned out to be a lousy campaigner, and seems fairly incompetent to boot: on the very first day of the campaign he got both the current interest rate and the current unemployment rate wrong, and he hasn’t gotten much better since then. Meanwhile, Morrison has been his usual ‘bulldozer’ self — in his own words — which certainly hasn’t been too impressive either. The low point of the campaign was probably when he endorsed the views of the candidate for Warringah (/wəˈɹɪŋɡa/), after she was found to have posted some fairly transphobic stuff on Twitter involving Holocaust comparisons and suchlike. The lower point was the second televised debate between Morrison and Albanese, in which the two ‘leaders’ spent an entire hour or so screaming at each other at the same time. (Morrison was perhaps a little worse than Albanese; I begin to see why his own ministers call him a ‘bully’.) There were, alas, no high points in this campaign, as far as I remember.

(Oh, and rereading my first post on the topic, I am pleased to note that after five months almost all of it still holds up. The main differences are that we now know a bit more about Albanese — for instance, that his name is /ælbəˈnizi/ — and that the Premiers have been far less involved in the campaign than expected. Berejiklian in particular has kept her head down, which was probably a wise choice.)

[MacAnDàil]

I think NUPES is chantable: NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES! NU-PES!

Shouldn't that be monosyllabic in French?

The pronunciation's not obvious from the acronym and in fact nobody's really sure how you're meant to pronounce it.
I've heard /ny.pɛs/, /nyp/ and even /nyps/.

In this semi-survey, there is relative majority for the bisyllabic pronunciation I myself favour:
https://www.lamontagne.fr/paris-75000/a ... _14129991/

LFI and the communists; check out the last paragraph:
https://nupes-2022.fr/le-programme/

To be specific, yes, part of NUPES (LFI, communists) is in favor of leaving NATO, the rest are opposed (PS, EELV)

Exactly, it's part of NUPES and not of all and so there is no unified position on the matter, as specified in the programme. It would be put to the parliament, who would likely have a pro-NATO majority even in the case of a NUPES majority, with the PS and EELV parts of NUPES along with Ensemble and the Republicans.

[Moose-tache]

One thing I admire about Australian culture is politically themed foods, like ANZAC biscuits and democracy sausages. I love the idea of eating a specific food while in line to vote.

[bradrn]

Well, Labor won. Pretty decisively, as it turns out, though we don’t yet know whether they’ll govern as a majority or in minority. Perhaps the government might now actually do something… or perhaps it might all have been a load of hot air; I guess we’ll see.

[Moose-tache]

You should petition the government to see if they are willing to translate a paragraph into Proto-Savanna.

[bradrn]

You should petition the government to see if they are willing to translate a paragraph into Proto-Savanna.

I already apologised for that, didn’t I‽

[Ares Land]

Well, Labor won. Pretty decisively, as it turns out, though we don’t yet know whether they’ll govern as a majority or in minority. Perhaps the government might now actually do something… or perhaps it might all have been a load of hot air; I guess we’ll see.

I gather there really isn't much of a difference between Labor and the Liberals, is that correct?

[bradrn]

Well, Labor won. Pretty decisively, as it turns out, though we don’t yet know whether they’ll govern as a majority or in minority. Perhaps the government might now actually do something… or perhaps it might all have been a load of hot air; I guess we’ll see.

I gather there really isn't much of a difference between Labor and the Liberals, is that correct?

Up until a few days ago, I would have agreed, but the difference in rhetoric has been really quite noticeable since the election. Albanese has been talking about all sorts of strange concepts like ‘bringing people together’, ‘looking after the disadvantaged and the vulnerable’, acting on climate change, committing to the Uluṟu Statement and so on, none of which would ever be heard from anyone in the Coalition. As I said, it remains to be seen how much of this will actually be accomplished in the next three years.

[Raphael]

Three years?

[bradrn]

Three years?

Yes, of course. Elections are three years apart.

[Raphael]

Now that's weird. Thank you!

[bradrn]

Now that's weird.

Why? Two years is too short, four years is too long. Three years is just right.