Russia invades Ukraine

[Raphael]

True, but before now they generally didn't accuse the USA of supposedly trying to assassinate the Russian President.

[Linguoboy]

True, but before now they generally didn't accuse the USA of supposedly trying to assassinate the Russian President.

Are you sure? I remember some pretty wild accusations being flung out after the killing of Darya Dugina last year and I'd be surprised if that were the first time.

[Raphael]

Damn. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65751650

[Travis B.]

Damn. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65751650

The thing is how is it shocking when you invade a country and they happen to actually, well, fight back?

[keenir]

Damn. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-65751650

The thing is how is it shocking when you invade a country and they happen to actually, well, fight back?

Its like Russia wasn't actually paying attention during America's time in Iraq, or Syria in Lebanon, or, well, anyone in Yemen. Weird.

[Torco]

then again, retaliatory action by ukraine/nato can be used by the kremlin as a justification for full mobilization, and makes russia's position more sympathetic in the eyes of its very important international allies and... neutrals? you know, like India, who refuses to stop trading with them even though it's not properly speaking allied with russia. "we're defending our land against terrorist incursions" is a more moving case than "we're attacking another country cause we don't like that they were going to let the yanks put yet another dozen military bases seven blocks from the border"

[MacAnDàil]

On another again, Ukraine denies involvement. On yet another again, their denial involves the word 'directly'.

[chris_notts]

The argument about defense from terrorists doesn't really work on anyone who is at all objective though, when you invaded first and started the whole war, are still doing much much more damage to the country you're invading than they're doing to you. It's not worth holding back on things that can help you win, so countries that were already strongly inclined not to back you are slightly less biased.

[Torco]

in times of war and in the hands of power all kinds of silly arguments just *work* though. "terrorism" in particular seems to be an infinite source of casus belli... casi belli ? casūs? anyway. remember the WMDs that bush was going to find while defeating the concept of terrorism and bringing democracy to the middle east? was it not the US who had trained and armed those terrorists a short time before? and it worked nontheless. not to defend russia but it's not quite as clear, this whole thing of "russia started it out of nothing, without provocations blabla". we all know the US would sooner make the night sky glow uranium green than permit a single russian or chinese military base in mexico, and I think that's what ukraine joining NATO means for the kremlin, a(nother) US military base right on their border, 300km from Moscow. even if i'm wrong about that, and i very well could, ultimately wartime talking points don't need to pass objective, rational scrutiny, they just need to be enough that the people who are on your side anyway, for whatever reason, have *something* to say. If the terrorism spiel worked for the white house, it doesn't seem like it inherently couldn't work for the kremlin. it works the most, especially domestically, when people are getting bombed in their houses (which is why the ukranian morale, by all accounts, is exceptionally high: getting bombed and invaded will do that).

and I think US military planners know this: they're very careful to try to get the ukranians to just defend, when it could easily give them enough long range stuff to make moscow really suffer.

[Raphael]

So. Now what?

One of the thoughts flying around in my head right now is that Prigozhin has spent so much time surrounded by people who treat him as the center of the universe that he's completely forgotten how little power he has within the larger context of Russian politics.

If Prigozhin somehow wins this, he'll almost certainly be a lot worse than Putin. If - more likely - the regime crushes him, the regime itself might well become a lot worse.

Perhaps the regime might react to this by publishing a lot of documentation of horrible things Prigozhin has done, without caring how bad they make themselves look by doing this.

I wonder why we apparently haven't heard from Putin himself yet. If I was a ruler targeted by an ongoing coup, but not yet overthrown, I'd probably try to assert myself somehow. Perhaps he thinks too little of Prigozhin's chances of success for that.

Anyway, I hope we'll still all be able to talk about this in a few days.

[zompist]

One of the thoughts flying around in my head right now is that Prigozhin has spent so much time surrounded by people who treat him as the center of the universe that he's completely forgotten how little power he has within the larger context of Russian politics.

It's a crazy story to be sure.

I've said before that a dictator has to keep his thugs happy. Prigozhin seems to be a hothead, which makes it difficult. He was on the front line in Bakhmut, and he undoubtedly was supported incompetently, but apparently he now thinks this was a personal affront.

It's most likely I think that things will be defused in a few days. And if it is, I kind of expect Prigozhin to suffer the defenestration disease that has been so prevalent in Russia.

[zompist]

Some top comments from Mastodon:

"Republicans gotta be completely confounded by this one, though, like who do you root for, the Nazis or the other Nazis?"

"I hope the Ukrainians have sufficient popcorn reserves to get them through this."

"Can’t believe it’s taken until 2023 for anyone to think of invading Russia in the *summer*"

"Broke: the Russian Armed Forces are the second strongest army in the world

Woke: the Russian Armed Forces are the second strongest army in Ukraine

Bespoke: the Russian Armed Forces are the second strongest army in Russia"

[Raphael]

"Can’t believe it’s taken until 2023 for anyone to think of invading Russia in the *summer*"

OK, to be pedantic, IIRC both Napoleon and Hitler did invade in the summer; they just didn't manage it to win their respective wars before the summer was over.

While we're talking about Mastodon comments on the whole matter, the IMO best one I've found so far is this one, from @securopean@infosec.exchange :

https://infosec.exchange/@securopean/110598004873649241

So we simply have a 15th century mercenary prince leading an uprising against a 20th century dictator in a 19th century country which has recently launched an 18th century imperialist invasion. #russia

[Moose-tache]

I'm worried we may have move on to fascinating times.

[hwhatting]

So we simply have a 15th century mercenary prince leading an uprising against a 20th century dictator in a 19th century country which has recently launched an 18th century imperialist invasion. #russia

By the mafia rulebook, Prigozhin is now a dead man walking. But if it turns out that Putin isn't even able to eliminate Prigozhin as a player in Russia, despite his "coup", then Russia isn't even a 19th century country but more like 10th century medieval Europe, where kings had learn to live with constant insurrections by feudal barons without having the means to suppress them for good.

[Raphael]

but more like 10th century medieval Europe, where kings had learn to live with constant insurrections by feudal barons without having the means to suppress them for good.

To be pedantic, that sounds more like 14th than 10th century Europe to me.

[hwhatting]

but more like 10th century medieval Europe, where kings had learn to live with constant insurrections by feudal barons without having the means to suppress them for good.

To be pedantic, that sounds more like 14th than 10th century Europe to me.

Just read up a bit about 10th century France or Germany (say, the Res Gestae Saxonum or a biography of Otto the Great)... I'm not saying that this picture isn't true about 14th century Europs as well, though, it's just that 10th century is the period I've been reading more about in the last couple of years.

[zompist]

but more like 10th century medieval Europe, where kings had learn to live with constant insurrections by feudal barons without having the means to suppress them for good.

To be pedantic, that sounds more like 14th than 10th century Europe to me.

FWIW, it sounds like medieval Europe, post-Trajan Rome, most of Chinese history, most of Indian history, most of Japanese history, most of the Muslim empires, bits of Egypt...in short, it's normal for kings. The exceptional period is when the monarch's power is unquestionable. Dictatorships and mafia chiefdoms are about the same.

This whole business is strange. Prigozhin seemed to be doing quite well, and then simply called everything off. He was not beaten or captured, yet he got nothing of what he wanted. Maybe we'll learn more someday.

It was evident that Putin still controls the media and the FSB, but it sure doesn't look good for his control over the army or the people. Prigozhin seems to have met no real resistance, and by some reports was welcomed, in Rostov and Voronezh. And apparently he just faces exile, which in these circles is a slap on the wrist.

But looking at ambitious generals is only part of the story. Kings and dictators need reliable thugs. These need to be strong enough to act, often outside legal channels, but personally loyal. Prigozhin was one of those thugs, and if Putin drove him to this, he's slipping.

Not fatally, mind you. He has other thugs— and one of the most powerful is, for now, off the chessboard. (I wonder what Kadryov is thinking. Is he just happy that a rival is gone? Surely a part of his brain is mulling over what Prigozhin got right or wrong.)

[Moose-tache]

This war is a matryoshka. Inside Wagner right now someone is launching an even tinier doomed assault with no discernable strategic goals.

[zompist]

It occurs to me that this is a perfect moment for Putin to get rid of Shoigu. Another guy who'd best avoid windows.