AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

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malloc
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by malloc »

Raphael wrote:You might be falling into the fallacy where people thing "This robot can do X. People who can do X can usually do Y, too. Therefore, this robot should be able to do Y!" But that's a fallacy, because robots aren't humans, and their skills don't work the same way as human skills.

And, you underestimate how difficult generalizing has traditionally been for robots and computers. For instance, if a robot can walk through a specific parcour, that doesn't mean it can work everywhere, under real-world conditions.
Sure although my example does involve programming the specific skills necessary into the robot. Generalization is certainly a problem although advances in machine learning have made incredible progress in this area. Computers have no difficulty identifying cats in visual data, for instance, provided they have been trained on enough images of cats. The challenges from what I can tell are mainly a matter of marshaling the necessary resources rather than any technical or conceptual obstacle.

Whether we like it or not, humans are rapidly becoming superfluous to civilization with more efficient and competent alternatives under development. If present trends continue, humans will find themselves unemployable and either dependent on lifelong welfare for survival* or more likely condemned to extermination as "useless eaters". Even maintaining influence in politics and administration will prove increasingly difficult since humans will have to compete with ever smarter and more rational computers for administrative positions.

*Although the concept of UBI has gained increasing traction in recent years, the notion that our increasingly reactionary governments would embrace it is prima facie absurd.
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Travis B.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Travis B. »

You don't seem to understand how complex a task simply making a cup of coffee is. I personally don't see it as impossible, unlike some, and I am not willing to bet against it, but I don't see it as easy by any means either. This is different from, say, creating an automated Starbucks barista which is only designed to operate within the design of a Starbucks, as it has a much wider range of conditions which it must accommodate and perform flawlessly in.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Raphael »

malloc wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 3:54 pm Computers have no difficulty identifying cats in visual data, for instance, provided they have been trained on enough images of cats.
I'll just quote Ares Land on that:
Ares Land wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:02 am (With a humongous load of data, a few months of work and constant nursing by a few engineers, you can teach a computer to recognize cats. Babies pick up that skill pretty much instantly.)
The challenges from what I can tell are mainly a matter of marshaling the necessary resources rather than any technical or conceptual obstacle.
Nope, getting computers to be good at generalizing from specific concepts is a conceptual obstacle.
Whether we like it or not, humans are rapidly becoming superfluous to civilization with more efficient and competent alternatives under development. If present trends continue, humans will find themselves unemployable and either dependent on lifelong welfare for survival* or more likely condemned to extermination as "useless eaters". Even maintaining influence in politics and administration will prove increasingly difficult since humans will have to compete with ever smarter and more rational computers for administrative positions.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Raphael »

Travis B. wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 3:58 pm You don't seem to understand how complex a task simply making a cup of coffee is. I personally don't see it as impossible, unlike some, and I am not willing to bet against it, but I don't see it as easy by any means either. This is different from, say, creating an automated Starbucks barista which is only designed to operate within the design of a Starbucks, as it has a much wider range of conditions which it must accommodate and perform flawlessly in.
Again, it might be a case of the "This robot can do X. People who can do X can usually do Y, too. Therefore, this robot should be able to do Y!"-fallacy.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by rotting bones »

For fixing bugs, we're working on gathering a wide range of data through simulation.
Raphael wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 4:00 pm
Ares Land wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:02 am (With a humongous load of data, a few months of work and constant nursing by a few engineers, you can teach a computer to recognize cats. Babies pick up that skill pretty much instantly.)
AI models can also pick it up instantly if the model has been pre-trained to recognize images generally. Most of a cat detecting AI consists of instructions on how to parse image data.

There's a whole subfield on instant training. Search for "zero shot learning".
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Travis B. »

rotting bones wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 4:05 pm For fixing bugs, we're working on gathering a wide range of data through simulation.
Raphael wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 4:00 pm
Ares Land wrote: Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:02 am (With a humongous load of data, a few months of work and constant nursing by a few engineers, you can teach a computer to recognize cats. Babies pick up that skill pretty much instantly.)
AI models can also pick it up instantly if the model has been pre-trained to recognize images generally. Most of a cat detecting AI consists of instructions on how to parse image data.

There's a whole subfield on instant training. Search for "zero shot learning".
This is more akin to designing and training an AI controlling a robot to locate an arbitrary cat in its environment and pet it without getting scratched or hissed at than merely picking out images of cats from a series of arbitrary images.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by malloc »

Raphael wrote:"I really hate the people running the tech industry, and I also believe everything they say about what the things they're working on can do!"
I hate the people running the tech industry because they're trying to render humans obsolete and by all appearances they are coming dangerously close to succeeding on that front. You hardly need to take their word for it regarding the capabilities of their products, though. They're already available to the public.
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rotting bones
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by rotting bones »

Travis B. wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 4:12 pm This is more akin to designing and training an AI controlling a robot to locate an arbitrary cat in its environment and pet it without getting scratched or hissed at than merely picking out images of cats from a series of arbitrary images.
Take a look at the FixAgent paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.17153
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Raphael »

malloc wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 4:16 pm You hardly need to take their word for it regarding the capabilities of their products, though. They're already available to the public.
You mean, the products that try to answer question and keep getting the most basic stuff wrong?
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by rotting bones »

Raphael wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 4:19 pm You mean, the products that try to answer question and keep getting the most basic stuff wrong?
I agree that AI capabilities have been overblown. On the other hand, it's been over a year that I've seen an answer from ChatGPT quite as bad as the example you posted. It looks like something from an older generation of AI models.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by rotting bones »

BTW, if you're going to search for "zero shot learning", search for "one shot learning" too.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by zompist »

Travis B. wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 2:25 pm The next step, IMO, is defeating Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test -- that an AI in a robot can enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, locate where the coffee is stored, find the coffee machine, figure out how to operate the coffee machine, and brew a cup (or pot) of coffee. Until an AI can do this, we can't say we have AGI, and there is no known AI which has beaten this test so far.
Do humans have General Coffee Intelligence? I’m not too confident I could operate any given coffee machine… though maybe it’s because it’s easier and safer to ask the owner to make a cup.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by bradrn »

zompist wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 5:10 pm
Travis B. wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 2:25 pm The next step, IMO, is defeating Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test -- that an AI in a robot can enter an unfamiliar house, find the kitchen, locate where the coffee is stored, find the coffee machine, figure out how to operate the coffee machine, and brew a cup (or pot) of coffee. Until an AI can do this, we can't say we have AGI, and there is no known AI which has beaten this test so far.
Do humans have General Coffee Intelligence? I’m not too confident I could operate any given coffee machine… though maybe it’s because it’s easier and safer to ask the owner to make a cup.
Honestly, I also have my doubts that I could do it. (And not just because I have no clue how to make coffee…)
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Ketsuban »

I would also probably have difficulty operating an arbitrary coffee machine the first time I see it, but I don't know how to make coffee because I don't drink it. (I mostly drink water, but my caffeinated beverage of choice is tea.) On the other hand, coffee machines can differ substantially in feature set and design and a human who knows how to operate one will probably pick up another given the opportunity to examine it purely from their knowledge of the process of making coffee and the affordances of the machine, whereas robots have to be taught any given interface from first principles. The Wozniak Coffee Test is about precisely that ability to generalise.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by malloc »

Sheesh, it seems like I'm the only one here familiar with coffee machines. Doesn't anyone else here like coffee?

Alongside my many other projects, I have been thinking of writing a novel about humans struggling to survive against the onslaught of artificial intelligence. Much as fascism and Stalinism inspired dystopian fiction, I feel the time has come for TESCREAL to have its own fictional rebuttal. The main problem I find is explaining how humans could plausibly hold their own against intelligent computers. We can't even beat the current generation of computers at chess or arithmetic so keeping pace with far more powerful ones seems impossible to explain. Realistically the AI would simply outwit humans at every turn just as we effortlessly drive one megafaunal species after another to the brink of extinction.

Perhaps the humans have buffed their intelligence somehow, although it seems difficult to imagine how that would work. Simply getting to the point of beating computers at chess and similar games would entail an extraordinary leap in cognitive ability that would make Einstein seem dull-witted. It would require either absurdly large brains or massive improvements in how existing neurons function and connect.
Last edited by malloc on Tue Dec 10, 2024 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

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malloc wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 7:22 pm Sheesh, it seems like I'm the only one here familiar with coffee machines. Doesn't anyone else here like coffee?
We’re tea drinkers in my family! (Except for myself, who only drinks water.)
Alongside my many other projects, I have been thinking of writing a novel about humans struggling to survive against the onslaught of artificial intelligence. Much as fascism and Stalinism inspired dystopian fiction, I feel the time has come for TESCREAL to have its own fictional rebuttal. The main problem I find is explaining how humans could plausibly hold their own against intelligent computers. We can't even beat the current generation of computers at chess or arithmetic so keeping pace with far more powerful ones seems impossible to explain. Realistically the AI would simply outwit humans at every turn just as we effortlessly drive one megafaunal species after another to the brink of extinction.
See Vinge’s A Fire Upon the Deep, or Stross’s Accelerando. Plenty of nightmare fuel there.

(For which reason, you might want to consider whether you really want to read such things or not. I know I can only read these things during the day, when I’m sure I’m in a particularly good mood. And when I’m prepared for that mood to vanish really quickly…)
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Travis B. »

I primarily live off coffee and, to a lesser extent, root beer, for one.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

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Quite honestly, I feel a deep sense of shame regarding my intellectual inferiority to computers. I could spend my entire life studying chess or mathematics and even a bargain bin smartphone would still blow me away at either.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

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malloc wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 7:22 pm Alongside my many other projects, I have been thinking of writing a novel about humans struggling to survive against the onslaught of artificial intelligence. Much as fascism and Stalinism inspired dystopian fiction, I feel the time has come for TESCREAL to have its own fictional rebuttal. The main problem I find is explaining how humans could plausibly hold their own against intelligent computers. We can't even beat the current generation of computers at chess or arithmetic so keeping pace with far more powerful ones seems impossible to explain. Realistically the AI would simply outwit humans at every turn just as we effortlessly drive one megafaunal species after another to the brink of extinction.

Perhaps the humans have buffed their intelligence somehow, although it seems difficult to imagine how that would work. Simply getting to the point of beating computers at chess and similar games would entail an extraordinary leap in cognitive ability that would make Einstein seem dull-witted. It would require either absurdly large brains or massive improvements in how existing neurons function and connect.
Ignoring that fact that I agree with very little of this (computers are only a tool in higher math, intelligence doesn't exist, AIs have no instinct for self-preservation, etc, but yes, tech CEOs have got to go), the bigger problem is that the literary tradition originating from Neuromancer doesn't really understand linear algebra. If you don't study AI theory, you will probably end up recreating a critique of 20th century totalitarianism like ChatGPT did: https://pastebin.com/raw/2BHEJtTJ An AI that took over the world would probably be more human than human. It would probably control us like Trumpist stochastic terrorism.
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Re: AIs gunning for our precious freelancers

Post by Lērisama »

bradrn wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 6:20 pm
zompist wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2024 5:10 pm Do humans have General Coffee Intelligence? I’m not too confident I could operate any given coffee machine… though maybe it’s because it’s easier and safer to ask the owner to make a cup.
Honestly, I also have my doubts that I could do it. (And not just because I have no clue how to make coffee…)
I think maybe a tea test?¹ You'd have to find the teabags (easier said than done), but kettles are usually easier to work out than coffee machines². Fewer buttons, and their's only so much that a kettle can do

¹ Setting aside the other problems with it
² I think, but I also don't drink or make coffee
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