United States Politics Thread 47

[Torco]

I think you're conworlding here. Trump is doing nothing to extend US power; quite the reverse.

very much so, yeah.

As a rising power, what's in China's interest is maintaining the status quo. Hopefully Xi realizes that and doesn't actually try to grab Taiwan. In any case it seems like the magic has gone out of China's growth.

oh, i think he very much does. there's a lot of problems with having an ally of the opposite power bloc right in your backyard, and he already got one, HK. plus he and the CCP would gain soooo much face from successfully doing so.

[Raphael]

Preserving the "unipolar moment" has been the goal of every US administration since then. It's the same for Trump, only the means have changed.

I'm honestly not sure. there's a certain chilean sociologist that defends the notion that trump is, rather, adapting to the end of that unipolar moment, and it's not absurd: like, he's rolling back some of the apparatus of the overseasempire, picking which allies to keep and which allies to let loose, leaving europe to fend for itself, his focus on bilateral deals. a reasonable middleground seems to be that he's trying to prepare the us for the transition from only big dog to biggest dog in a pack with other big dogs.

That's projecting both more reason and more humility on Trump than he has. The sociologist in question might be falsely assuming that everyone shares their ability to do serious sociological analysis.

[Ares Land]

I'm honestly not sure. there's a certain chilean sociologist that defends the notion that trump is, rather, adapting to the end of that unipolar moment, and it's not absurd: like, he's rolling back some of the apparatus of the overseasempire, picking which allies to keep and which allies to let loose, leaving europe to fend for itself, his focus on bilateral deals. a reasonable middleground seems to be that he's trying to prepare the us for the transition from only big dog to biggest dog in a pack with other big dogs.

That honestly makes sense, except that it seems to rely on Trump being moderately competent and that is a bold assumption to make.

[Torco]

That's projecting both more reason and more humility on Trump than he has. The sociologist in question might be falsely assuming that everyone shares their ability to do serious sociological analysis.

granted that's a fault in the analysis of many people in social sciences.

That honestly makes sense, except that it seems to rely on Trump being moderately competent and that is a bold assumption to make.

i mean... he's at least somewhat competent, he's the most powerful politician in the planet: that title doesn't require being the most competent politician on the planet, but it probably does require some baseline level.

like, don't get me wrong, i agree that he's incompetent to some nontrivial level and that that incompetence will make the us lose power and prestige faster than it would have lost them under some other more "normal" politician, but i don't think he's an utter dumbdumb either.

[Ares Land]

That honestly makes sense, except that it seems to rely on Trump being moderately competent and that is a bold assumption to make.

i mean... he's at least somewhat competent, he's the most powerful politician in the planet: that title doesn't require being the most competent politician on the planet, but it probably does require some baseline level.

like, don't get me wrong, i agree that he's incompetent to some nontrivial level and that that incompetence will make the us lose power and prestige faster than it would have lost them under some other more "normal" politician, but i don't think he's an utter dumbdumb either.

In some areas he's good. He's a very effective salesman, taking over the Republicans and won two elections with a couple of very simple ideas and that's pretty smart, honestly.

On the other hand, he's good at getting the top job, but not particularly at actually doing it. I just don't think he's that good at geopolitics, or even that interested.

[alice]

I have no idea what he does think he's getting with Russia; it's no substitute for Europe. Russia has taken the last year to advance like ten miles in Ukraine, what the hell is it going to do against China?

I think, as Raphael says, he just likes dictators.

And a lot of his base admire Putin for putting teh gays, among others, in their place, and having the power to do so.

[romddude]

Trump's foreign policy isn't that hard to understand in my view, as it is built on a similar foreign policy approach as some other global conservatives and on the foreign policy ideologues of the MAGA movement.

From what I can tell, there are two schools of thought at play in regards to Russia.

The first is a reinterpretation of Samuel P. Huntington's ideas about 'Clash of Civilizations' mixed with modern concerns about the culture war and Christian politics. They see an inevitable conflict in the future between a conservative Judeo-Christian West with 'democratic' values (though their idea of democracy is warped) against either a woke leftist front or a despotic Orient, or a mix of both of them. The Minister of Foreign Relations in my country was an advocate of this idea and we see it very clearly with Milei as well, though Milei has softened a bit towards China since becoming president obviously. In this context, Russia is a part of this conservative West, with a government built on strong Christian family values, but has been pushed away by Europe. Russia is a natural ally for the USA as part of this 'Western' bloc, even more to an extent than some of the 'woke' Europeans and the bureaucratic European Union. (Samuel P. Huntington noticeably did not consider Russia a part of the West but these guys clearly do).

The second is the approach you've probably heard about isolating China by courting Russia towards the USA. In a way it is a reverse of Kissinger's policy during the Cold War of rapprochement with China to drive a wedge between the USSR and China. Under this view of opposing China by courting other countries, countries that are deemed as ineffective or unable to side with China are ignored. Ukraine is seen as geopolitically worthless as it will never be able to align with China, and the European Union is deemed ineffective while also being very unlikely to side with China as well, so both of these are ignored. Meanwhile, Russia is courted to stimulate a reorientation against the Chinese.

The second position is clearly not enough to explain all of Trump's decisions so I think both of these are interlinked. These two are also mixed with the impact of domestic policy and populism, which stimulates Trump to seek 'solutions' and hyperfocus on issues like Panama rather than working long-term to resolve issues.

[Raphael]

I'd say romddude's "first school" makes the most sense, and partly describes my own thoughts on the matter better than I could have done it myself.

I'm less sure about the "second school". I suspect that Trump himself and large parts of the MAGA base aren't really all that aware of the Chinese-Russian alliance, or are actively in denial about it. Keep in mind that they're deeply racist. They probably think of Russia first and foremost as a "white" country, and of China first and foremost as an "Asian" country, and the idea that a "white" country and an "Asian" country could be real allies doesn't make sense to them.

[keenir]

I'm less sure about the "second school". I suspect that Trump himself and large parts of the MAGA base aren't really all that aware of the Chinese-Russian alliance, or are actively in denial about it. Keep in mind that they're deeply racist. They probably think of Russia first and foremost as a "white" country,

Which is deeply weird to me. I mean, even if we ignore the question of "where did the Huns come from?", we still have such racism classical peoples as the Tartars and their neighbors - where do these people think Tartars et al come from?

oh.
my bad, I used the TH word.
{think}

[Raphael]

Which is deeply weird to me. I mean, even if we ignore the question of "where did the Huns come from?", we still have such racism classical peoples as the Tartars and their neighbors - where do these people think Tartars et al come from?

oh.
my bad, I used the TH word.
{think}

I guess they look mainly at the ethnic group of Russians, not at everyone with the citizenship.

[malloc]

Bad news round up:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/06/economy/ ... index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/06/politics ... index.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump- ... 025-03-06/
https://www.newsweek.com/americans-goin ... ns-2040439
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pl62kCBax4

[WeepingElf]

Don't relapse into doomscrolling, malloc. Of course, what Trump does is horrific; you need not know every detail about it. Like I have ceased watching TV documentaries about the Nazis years ago - I know enough about them, and they trigger bad feelings, including fantasies about snowstorms in July during WWII and even more outrageous atrocities they had no occasion to carry out any more, such as trying to extinguish the Sun - of course, they never really planned that.

[jcb]

Trump is (sadly) as much an imperialist as any other POTUS before him.

He simply realizes that the world has changed and the US cannot afford to fight Russia and China at the same time. So he wants to roll up the US pet project in Europe and redirect the resources to fight China. If the US is lucky, US global hegemony can be extended by 5-10 years and the fall of the US from the position of the global hegemon can happen on US terms.

His foreign policy, while far from rational, is still more rational than his domestic policy.

But Trump's hostility for NATO allies predates the current situation. He started talking about how US should abandon its allies in 1987, when the Soviet Union was still around:
- https://thehill.com/opinion/national-se ... k-to-1987/

I think Trump likes Russia for two reasons:
- Trump wants to run America the same way that Putin runs Russia.
- Trump is a Russian asset that makes money from doing deals with Russia.
-- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsIntuxmXf0
-- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k35P4dDoLFw

Trump is not playing 4D chess. Trump is a narcissistic ignoramus who's too lazy to learn anything about the world, and cares only about increasing his own wealth.

As a rising power, what's in China's interest is maintaining the status quo. Hopefully Xi realizes that and doesn't actually try to grab Taiwan. In any case it seems like the magic has gone out of China's growth.

Unfortunately, I think Xi will try to take Taiwan in the next couple years, and will probably succede. Trump has shown that he isn't willing to help Ukraine, so why would he help Taiwan if China attacks?

If Taiwan wants a chance, they should give him a Trump Tower in Taipei, and nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. That might give him enough personal interest and flattery to make him care about Taiwan.

Bad news round up:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/06/economy/ ... index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/06/politics ... index.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump- ... 025-03-06/
https://www.newsweek.com/americans-goin ... ns-2040439
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pl62kCBax4

Also:
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5Oipx6pjHY
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD-7zLxU7DA

[Travis B.]

Too bad Trump isn't just the president of the people who could have voted and didn't vote for Harris; they certainly deserve Trump, every last one of them. And yes, that is you, the people who voted for Trump because you thought eggs were too expensive at the grocery store. You deserve this. Being a 'low-information voter' is no excuse for your idiocy.

[jcb]

Too bad Trump isn't just the president of the people who could have voted and didn't vote for Harris; they certainly deserve Trump, every last one of them. And yes, that is you, the people who voted for Trump because you thought eggs were too expensive at the grocery store. You deserve this. Being a 'low-information voter' is no excuse for your idiocy.

Speaking of eggs, Trump's goon has just told us the solution to high egg prices: Just raise your own chickens!
- https://www.huffpost.com/entry/brooke-r ... c440ed7fa7

[malloc]

Don't relapse into doomscrolling, malloc. Of course, what Trump does is horrific; you need not know every detail about it. Like I have ceased watching TV documentaries about the Nazis years ago - I know enough about them, and they trigger bad feelings, including fantasies about snowstorms in July during WWII and even more outrageous atrocities they had no occasion to carry out any more, such as trying to extinguish the Sun - of course, they never really planned that.

Except that the Nazis lost WWII and collapsed (the recent resurgence of the German far right not withstanding). Currently there is nobody both capable of defeating the US in WWIII and committed to democracy. Do you expect Europe to defeat the MAGA regime and restore democracy here?

[jcb]

Don't relapse into doomscrolling, malloc. Of course, what Trump does is horrific; you need not know every detail about it. Like I have ceased watching TV documentaries about the Nazis years ago - I know enough about them, and they trigger bad feelings, including fantasies about snowstorms in July during WWII and even more outrageous atrocities they had no occasion to carry out any more, such as trying to extinguish the Sun - of course, they never really planned that.

Except that the Nazis lost WWII and collapsed (the recent resurgence of the German far right not withstanding). Currently there is nobody both capable of defeating the US in WWIII and committed to democracy. Do you expect Europe to defeat the MAGA regime and restore democracy here?

Democracy isn't dead in America yet.

[keenir]

Don't relapse into doomscrolling, malloc. Of course, what Trump does is horrific; you need not know every detail about it. Like I have ceased watching TV documentaries about the Nazis years ago - I know enough about them, and they trigger bad feelings, including fantasies about snowstorms in July during WWII and even more outrageous atrocities they had no occasion to carry out any more, such as trying to extinguish the Sun - of course, they never really planned that.

Except that the Nazis lost WWII and collapsed (the recent resurgence of the German far right not withstanding). Currently there is nobody both capable of defeating the US in WWIII and committed to democracy.

why the need to do both at once? Stalin demonstrated you don't need democracy to defeat evildoers.

just think about how much China would benefit socially and probably economically from being part of the Coalition Of The Willing to kick the butt of your WW3 USA.

(heck, its probably one of the few things Mainland China and Taiwan China could agree upon - the need to stop Evil America)

also, no matter how small a role they had, the Kims would undoubtedly claim they were invaluable.

Do you expect Europe to defeat the MAGA regime and restore democracy here?

Alone? They could do it - but its unlikely they'd need to do it alone. They'd have support around the world.

Democracy isn't dead in America yet.

{facetiousness & sarcasm}

But but Trump has mind control and total and utter dominating every single newspaper and tv station on Earth! Everyone must agree with him or be thrown into prison and hit with bankrupting lawsuits!

{ /facetiousness} { /sarcasm}

[malloc]

Alone? They could do it - but its unlikely they'd need to do it alone. They'd have support around the world.

Do you think the few countries left still committed to liberal democracy could defeat the US in battle and deprogram Americans sufficiently for democracy to return here?

But but Trump has mind control and total and utter dominating every single newspaper and tv station on Earth! Everyone must agree with him or be thrown into prison and hit with bankrupting lawsuits!

You clearly don't understand the concept of propaganda or how dictators and cult leaders build consent for their policies. There are plenty of countries where the vast majority of people are hopelessly brainwashed. It can and will happen here once all major media outlets have embraced the MAGA regime.

[keenir]

*sigh* just when I was coming back online, in order to apologize to Malloc for trying to show Malloc how it looks to start heading for the proverbial deep end.

Alone? They could do it - but its unlikely they'd need to do it alone. They'd have support around the world.

Do you think the few countries left still committed to liberal democracy could defeat the US in battle

again, WHY would they need to be committed to liberal democracy, to defeat America??

and deprogram Americans sufficiently for democracy to return here?

deprogram? Malloc, you seriously misunderstand how the Great Man principle works.

But but Trump has mind control and total and utter dominating every single newspaper and tv station on Earth! Everyone must agree with him or be thrown into prison and hit with bankrupting lawsuits!

You clearly don't understand the concept of propaganda or how dictators and cult leaders build consent for their policies.

Oh I do, very much so. those are all things that have killed my ancestors, so I know them very very well. I'm not sure YOU understand them, however, beyond what you see in movies.

also, you seriously think cult leaders need consent...thats adorable.

There are plenty of countries where the vast majority of people are hopelessly brainwashed.

agreed; weird how nobody needed to deprogram Cambodia, Rwanda, or Germany.

It can and will happen here once all major media outlets have embraced the MAGA regime.

which will be never.

but at least you seem to be admitting that it is not already happening here. thats a big first step; and we're proud of you.