Zompist Bboard Again

Following the count in the Irish local elections, which were held on the same day as the Irish part of the EU election, I notice that they keep reporting that in this or that place, they've finished separating the EU ballots from the local ballots. Err, couldn't they have told the voters to put them into separate ballot boxes in the first place?

OK, I'll post about the German part of the EU election here rather than in the German Politics Thread so that all EU election discussions can stay in one place.

Result of the exit poll-based prognosis; Germany has a total of 96 seats in the EU Parliament:

CDU: 23.5 percent; 23 seats
CSU: 6.0 percent; 6 seats
AfD: 16.5 percent; 17 seats
SPD: 14.0 percent; 14 seats
Greens: 12.0 percent; 12 seats
Alliance Sarah Wagenknecht (people who ended up being too decidedly tankie-ish for The Left): 5.5 percent; 5 seats
FDP: 5.0 percent; 5 seats
The Left: 2.8 percent; 3 seats
Volt (a kinda left-ish, pan-European party): 2.8 percent; not sure how many seats
Free Voters: 2.6 percent; not sure how many seats
The Party (satirists): 1.8 percent; not sure how many seats
Animal Protection Party: 1.4 percent; not sure how many seats
Ecological Democratic Party: 0.8 percent; might get a seat if they're lucky

Over in France, results have been so good for Le Pen and so bad for Macron that Macron has called a snap election for Parliament. I don't know enough about the French constitution to know what exactly that means.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 2:32 pm Over in France, results have been so good for Le Pen and so bad for Macron that Macron has called a snap election for Parliament. I don't know enough about the French constitution to know what exactly that means.

Wow… that’s really scary. If Le Pen does win, I would certainly reconsider any plans to come back to France for further study.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 2:32 pm Over in France, results have been so good for Le Pen and so bad for Macron that Macron has called a snap election for Parliament. I don't know enough about the French constitution to know what exactly that means.

It means that the President will have to chose a Prime Minister from the new majority party. Macron is essentially hoping for a cohabitation, so that all problems of day-to-day governing could be blamed on the new (RN) government, while he keeps his international stature and his powers (among them the ability to call for a snap election whenever he wants).

On a slightly lighter note, I feel obliged to quote this wonderfully evocative headline from The Times of Israel:

Macron calls snap poll after being flambéed by far-right in EU vote

Vilike wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 2:53 pm
It means that the President will have to chose a Prime Minister from the new majority party. Macron is essentially hoping for a cohabitation, so that all problems of day-to-day governing could be blamed on the new (RN) government, while he keeps his international stature and his powers (among them the ability to call for a snap election whenever he wants).

Thank you. Does it change the date of either a) the next presidential election or b) the legislative election that would normally be hold after the next presidential election?

nope, the president do what he want during 5 years...
this decision is somewhat unexpected...

Meanwhile, there are now apparently three far-right anti-immigrant Councillors on the Dublin City Council, with 16 seats still to be filled - the total number of city council seats is 63.

Can anyone explain what the hell is happening to Europe with the far right taking over so suddenly? Assuming the best outcome for our own elections this fall, the US could well end up more left wing than Europe, which would really astound me.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 3:00 pmDoes it change the date of either a) the next presidential election

No, it's still scheduled for 2027. It's almost impossible to remove the French President, though a hostile Assembly can render him relatively harmless. Unless Macron personally decides to resign, which he probably won't.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 3:00 pm or b) the legislative election that would normally be hold after the next presidential election?

Yes. The Assembly is elected for five years, so in theory, the next legislative elections will be in 2029.

In practice, in 2027, if the newly-elected President doesn't have a majority in the Assembly, their first decision will be to dissolve it and call for new legislative elections.

If it seems terribly unfair that the President can dissolve the Assembly but can't be removed by it... well, that's because it is.

Man, I am really fucking angry about this, let me tell you. Fuck.

Vilike wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 2:53 pm It means that the President will have to chose a Prime Minister from the new majority party. Macron is essentially hoping for a cohabitation, so that all problems of day-to-day governing could be blamed on the new (RN) government, while he keeps his international stature and his powers (among them the ability to call for a snap election whenever he wants).

Either that, or he's planning to get a majority this time (he didn't have one, for the last two years.
People might get really scared -- it's one thing to send RN representatives to the European parliament, where they won't do much, another to have actually in power. Besides, the European elections use a proportional system, while the parliamentary election it's run off voting in many constituencies; plenty of opportunity for people to rally behind whichever of the two candidates isn't RN in the second round.
But it's a fucking dangerous bet, let me tell you.

Ideally, all left wing parties will finally get their act together, unite, and nominate a single candidate in each consistuency. I'd also like one billion dollars, and a unicorn. And, believe me, I have a way higher chance of getting a unicorn.

So anyway, it's extremely likely the next prime minister will be far right. Probably one Jordan Bardella, (first on the European election list, led the campaign, the clear winner here). He's very young, very stupid, and kind of looks like a used car salesman.

So yeah, I'm really angry, and likely to get even angrier.

malloc wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 4:53 pm Can anyone explain what the hell is happening to Europe with the far right taking over so suddenly? Assuming the best outcome for our own elections this fall, the US could well end up more left wing than Europe, which would really astound me.

It's not really sudden; it is, actually, more like the far right slowly slouching towards power.
The far right has been high in the polls, and growing steadily stronger since the 80s. Personally, I don't remember a single election where the far-right and far-right ideas weren't a huge factor.

The explaining factors are, I think, general stupidity and a lack of education combined with media encouragement. The media bear a huge responsability in this (when all you hear on the news is either stories about the RN or sordid crime stories, the results are not so surprising.)

The story is similar in many European countries. I think it came a bit earlier in France, and fairly later on in Germany (though we've been hearing about the AfD for about a decade.)

My own view on this is that the far right has been tacitly encouraged. People are mostly right-wingers here, but there is a strong left-wing or even far-left minority. Elections are a lot easier when they come down to blackmail: either us or the fascists.

at European level, the calamitous management of the migrant crisis
and its operation without any further control by European "citizens"
largely explains this sanction...

it's much the same in France,
What's astonishing is that Macron has decided to reshuffle the cards,
when nothing obliged him to do so,
like a poker player intoxicated by his ubris...

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:43 am at European level, the calamitous management of the migrant crisis
and its operation without any further control by European "citizens"
largely explains this sanction...

In other words, Europeans and French people in particular are racist and vote accordingly. A shame on all of us.

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:43 am it's much the same in France,
What's astonishing is that Macron has decided to reshuffle the cards,
when nothing obliged him to do so,
like a poker player intoxicated by his ubris...

It's a dangerous decision but it makes sense in a way. Macron's legitimacy is questionable to begin with; he didn''t have a majority to begin with; then his party is soundly defeated in the European election. If he hadn't called for new elections, he'd have been paralyzed for the next three years.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:13 am In other words, Europeans and French people in particular are racist and vote accordingly. A shame on all of us.

I do not think that it is a question of racism but of calamitous management of Europe and its absence of international vision and ambition,
if not ultra liberalist oligarchy,
it is not surprising that this translates into a asks citizens for a return from the states in its management...

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:13 am It's a dangerous decision but it makes sense in a way. Macron's legitimacy is questionable to begin with; he didn''t have a majority to begin with; then his party is soundly defeated in the European election. If he hadn't called for new elections, he'd have been paralyzed for the next three years.

Macron already governs by ordinance, he has never had a favorable assembly since his re-election,
given the result of the European elections, it seems difficult to believe in a new, more favorable assembly...
He seems more to practice the politics of chaos, as if he were not concerned by the future of the state for which he ran for the supreme office...
it's crazy...

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:55 am I do not think that it is a question of racism but of calamitous management of Europe and its absence of international vision and ambition,
if not ultra liberalist oligarchy,
it is not surprising that this translates into a asks citizens for a return from the states in its management...

We should not delude ourselves
If people were bothered by neo-liberalism/ultra-liberalism, they'd vote for left-wing parties. Largely, they don't.
The RN and more generally the far-right in Europe have left a great deal of their anti-EU rhetoric aside, and gained even more as a result.

I think it's time to accept the simpler explanation that people just want an authoritarian fascist state and vote accordingly.

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:55 am Macron already governs by ordinance, he has never had a favorable assembly since his re-election,
given the result of the European elections, it seems difficult to believe in a new, more favorable assembly...
He seems more to practice the politics of chaos, as if he were not concerned by the future of the state for which he ran for the supreme office...

I mean, it's a very risky bet, and his ego has played no small part in the decision, that's a certainty. But he probably would have run into trouble later this year -- it's likely the budget vote would have let to a political impact so the decision to hold the inevitable elections at a convenient time makes a bit of sense.
Though as you say, the likely result is either a divided assembly as we have now or an outright RN victory.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 4:13 am

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:43 am at European level, the calamitous management of the migrant crisis
and its operation without any further control by European "citizens"
largely explains this sanction...

In other words, Europeans and French people in particular are racist and vote accordingly. A shame on all of us.

I read this as xxx directly supporting the narrative of a ‘migrant crisis’. (Although as with all his posts it’s near-impossible to be sure.)

Ryusenshi wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 12:25 am

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 3:00 pmDoes it change the date of either a) the next presidential election

No, it's still scheduled for 2027. It's almost impossible to remove the French President, though a hostile Assembly can render him relatively harmless. Unless Macron personally decides to resign, which he probably won't.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Jun 09, 2024 3:00 pm or b) the legislative election that would normally be hold after the next presidential election?

Yes. The Assembly is elected for five years, so in theory, the next legislative elections will be in 2029.

In practice, in 2027, if the newly-elected President doesn't have a majority in the Assembly, their first decision will be to dissolve it and call for new legislative elections.

If it seems terribly unfair that the President can dissolve the Assembly but can't be removed by it... well, that's because it is.

Ah, thank you.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 10, 2024 5:14 am We should not delude ourselves
If people were bothered by neo-liberalism/ultra-liberalism, they'd vote for left-wing parties. Largely, they don't.
The RN and more generally the far-right in Europe have left a great deal of their anti-EU rhetoric aside, and gained even more as a result.
I think it's time to accept the simpler explanation that people just want an authoritarian fascist state and vote accordingly.

the left has largely discredited itself, either by being particularly social-liberalist without the social (to the point of becoming Macronists),
or by being obsessed with a doctrinal social re-engineering which has become that of minorities against the majority, like an inverted universalism
(to the point that its traditional electorate, the weakest citizens, no longer knows which way to turn)
which opens the way to those who promise protection to the weakest citizens, they just have to believe it...