Elections in various countries

[xxx]

I regret having to experience this 07/07
and making my children experience it,
whatever the results of the elections,
the fault of the "serious" parties
of all sides who took turns at the helm
without looking down on the demands
of those they were supposed to represent...

[rotting bones]

in France, job creation is very low,
so untrained migrants have no other choice
than social assistance, delinquency and the drug economy...

If you create jobs by popular vote instead of monetary profit, then you could raise job creation as long as people demand goods. Poor people both demand and create goods. This would measure demand by what "demand" means in ordinary language rather than "the police violently defend my right to hold onto these fake counters and I'm willing to spend them for this task".

did you mean with the return of immigration to the country of origin...

Possibly. It could also be the case that the Algerians will stay in France and the French will move to Algeria. After all, if that's where all the action is...

since the second world war,
the extreme right has been nothing but a fantasy
that allows a deletere status quo that explains votes
that are analyzed as a mistake or a lack of explanation,
anything to avoid questioning oneself...

The Far Right exists. They have the most popular democratically elected leader in the world right now. This person's party demolishes minority neighborhoods with bulldozers, they have effectively made it illegal to marry outside one's religion, and they use these idpol issues as a veil behind which they offer a blank check to big business.

far less unequal and brutal
than the current decolonization

Even with that leader in charge, I'm still better off as a minority in today's India. I could stay in a state like West Bengal, where a different party is in power. Even in BJP areas, as long as I speak like an educated man and avoid regions of turmoil, I should be ok. (How would they know I'm from a Muslim background?) Under the British Raj, I would have no human dignity.

But even if you don't believe me, why advocate for a comparably brutal system? Why not live by the spirit of the French revolution and try to create a system of genuine liberty?

[Ares Land]

In a few days, the far right will be in power here anyway.

How certain is this? (And when actually is the election?)

First round this Sunday, second round the Sunday after.

We don't hear about opinion polls as much as usual this time -- results are noticeably harder to predict.
(I think the relative silence on opinion polls is a bit suspicious; but that's probably just me being paranoid )

The likeliest scenario so far is that the RN will come out ahead, but that we'll end up with no clear majority, so essentially France will be ungovernable until next year, when the president will be allowed to call for new elections.

Now, and this opinion appears to be shared by many French people, I think a RN victory is very likely. Why is that? In brief:

• Opinion polls routinely underestimate the far right.
• The left wing is unacceptable for many people and in particular for Macron voters. It's very likely they will either abstain or vote RN if the centrist candidate isn't present in the second round. You can have three or four candidates in the second round; in which case the candidate with the most votes wins -- almost always, a RN candidate.

We have an old political saying in France: 'Plutôt Hitler que le Front populaire.' (Rather Hitler than the Front Populaire). This dates back to the 30s and to the original Front populaire, but it's more current than ever.

The situation is volatile and hard to predict, really, but I'm pretty certain the far-right will be in power.

[Ares Land]

I regret having to experience this 07/07
and making my children experience it,
whatever the results of the elections,
the fault of the "serious" parties
of all sides who took turns at the helm
without looking down on the demands
of those they were supposed to represent...

Oh, come now. You'll get a fascist in power and that's exactly what you want. Yeah, they will fuck up everything; don't come crying when they do.

[xxx]

I don't know who we should fear the most,
both sides have been swallowed up by the extremes
thanks to the extreme center
which was parachuted into the Elysée,
that's the whole problem...

[Ares Land]

I don't know who we should fear the most,
both sides have been swallowed up by the extremes
thanks to the extreme center
which was parachuted into the Elysée,
that's the whole problem...

Then you've lost all common decency. I don't know if I can blame you; most French voters are the same.

At this point there's probably nothing but seeing evil in actual that'll help.

[bradrn]

The likeliest scenario so far is that the RN will come out ahead, but that we'll end up with no clear majority, so essentially France will be ungovernable until next year, when the president will be allowed to call for new elections.

Well… it’s better than them getting fully in power, I guess…

We have an old political saying in France: 'Plutôt Hitler que le Front populaire.' (Rather Hitler than the Front Populaire). This dates back to the 30s and to the original Front populaire, but it's more current than ever.

The situation is volatile and hard to predict, really, but I'm pretty certain the far-right will be in power.

Ugh.

At this point there's probably nothing but seeing evil in actual that'll help.

I’m not sure this will do anything, alas. People still support Trump. Heck, people still support Hamas.

[xxx]

But even if you don't believe me, why advocate for a comparably brutal system? Why not live by the spirit of the French revolution and try to create a system of genuine liberty?

I am not advocating any of them,

the universalist ideal of the Enlightenment
reached its climax with colonization,
like the torch of civilization brought to the world...

In return with the adoption by local elites of this ideal,
the colonized countries took back the reins of their destiny,

but in many parts of the world,
globalism driven by money as the only ideal
replaced colonization and put under guardianship of these countries
and automatically places its abused children in former colonizing countries...

in France, as long as assimilation was possible whatever the country of origin,
the religion, the customs,
as long as they remained in the private domain
was never a problem, the ideal of laicité remaining...

but due to lack of being able to assimilate
because of the gluttony of globalization
both in France and in the countries of origin,
this universalist ideal no longer exists,

and now deconstructed by decolonial relativism
until the adoption of exotic obscurantism
in the place of obsurantists against whom it was created...

Then you've lost all common decency. I don't know if I can blame you; most French voters are the same.

voters say what they think,
based on the choices offered to them,
rather than hearing them since 2002,
the parties analyze this as an error,
and continue, until they dissolve into LFI and the RN,
and risk pushing us into a harmful adventure...

the main culprit in my opinion is the socialist party,
which since Mitterrand has played the FN card to weaken the right
and immigrationism to weaken the PC,
until its Hollandian suicide
and then in the poor negotiation of its result in the European
to submit to LFI...

[rotting bones]

the universalist ideal of the Enlightenment
reached its climax with colonization,
like the torch of civilization brought to the world...

Ideals do not reign supreme. The world is ruled by self-reinforcing social systems that function according to rules you can learn by reading Cockshott, Mesquita and Marx.

These social systems are machines that destroy themselves once in a while. None of them keep going forever.

When one of these destructions happen, a natural process which is no one's fault, that gives us an opening to create a more just system in its place. Doing this requires both the knowledge of how these systems function and the political will for justice. This is where ideals become relevant.

In the past, people thought replacing an unjust king with a just king can usher in an era of justice. But there is only so much that a king can do. As Mesquita shows in his book, the limits of a king are not the limits of nature.

If we really want justice, we can replace the system of monarchy with a system of democracy. But legislative democracy remains beholden to the economic monarchy of capitalism. If we can institute economic democracy, we can have a just social system that truly benefits everyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_democracy

As for culture, I only believe in the culture we are creating today. The rest belongs in a museum.

[Ares Land]

voters say what they think,
based on the choices offered to them,
rather than hearing them since 2002,
the parties analyze this as an error,
and continue, until they dissolve into LFI and the RN,
and risk pushing us into a harmful adventure...

There is no satisfying RN voters, because immigration is not the cause of all their problems, and you can't give them what they want. What they want is a racist, illiberal state and they won't be satisfied until they get a racist illiberal state.
I remember Sarkozy trying to listen to them. How did that work out?

As for equating RN and LFI... I mean, one of them wants to humiliate Black people and Arabs at every turn; the other wants to increase the marginal tax rates. Which one is worse? I leave that to your conscience.

the main culprit in my opinion is the socialist party,
which since Mitterrand has played the FN card to weaken the right
and immigrationism to weaken the PC,
until its Hollandian suicide
and then in the poor negotiation of its result in the European
to submit to LFI...

Mitterrand did encourage the FN in its early day. Of course he should have left Jean-Marie Le Pen in the gutter where it belongs. The FN (then-rebranded as the RN) did all right without him, though. Back in the 80s, the PS did bring anti-racism (not 'immigrationism') to the forefront as an important and topical issue. They had ulterior motives in doing so, of course, but it was still the right thing to do. I don't share your worries about LFI, which has a platform about similar to the 1990s socialists. People are turning this country over to the fascists because the rich might pay slightly higher taxes. Sounds insane but it's true;

All that being said, let's remember Bardella is an immature little idiot. How will he react when he can't get what he wants? When it turns what he wants to do is unconstitutional? How about the little band of violent thugs lurking in the shadows, how will they react when they find out you can't outlaw Arabs and gay folks?
Suppose a riot starts in a poor suburbs somewhere and someone gets killed and they enact martial law faster than you can say 'Reichstag fire?'

It'll be no use blaming Mitterrand or Hollande then. You will be personally responsible for whatever happens because you voted for these guys.

[bradrn]

As for equating RN and LFI... I mean, one of them wants to humiliate Black people and Arabs at every turn; the other wants to increase the marginal tax rates.

There’s also the antisemitism, although admittedly they’re both guilty of that in equal measure. (If you had been talking about FP more broadly, I would have agreed with you.)

[xxx]

You will be personally responsible for whatever happens because you voted for these guys.

oh no, whatever I think, I won't be voting for any of these 3 extremist parties...

Le Pen is not clear on its politics except against migrations,
Macron is clear about his will to shit on France,
Mélanchon propose to shave for free a pro Islamist France, otherwise he promises chaos...

and the three of them don't care about representing only themselves,
if ideal takes precedence over everything else,
none of them has any vision beyond their own election...

[Ares Land]

As for equating RN and LFI... I mean, one of them wants to humiliate Black people and Arabs at every turn; the other wants to increase the marginal tax rates.

There’s also the antisemitism, although admittedly they’re both guilty of that in equal measure. (If you had been talking about FP more broadly, I would have agreed with you.)

As for LFI, what I said over at the Middle East thread also applies. They've played their dangerous game with that anti-Zionism insanity and got about what was expected.

But they're not at all in the same ballpark. The RN is far worse, as its history shows. They play up the Muslim antisemitism card for all it's worth and it works; the election results for the Eighth constituency for French residents overseas. I don't fully understand why French Jews fall for that... but they do.

The thing is, even leaving aside the antisemitic roots of the far right, there is much in their platform that would hurt French Jews. Ritual slaughtering? check. Discrimination based on dual citizenship? I'd have to check, but it's probable dual Israeli-French citizenship is common. Anyway.

The annoying bit is the following equation LFI has antisemtic members > LFI is antisemitic > the entire French left is antisemitic > let's put a fascist in charge > ???? > Profit.

[bradrn]

But they're not at all in the same ballpark. The RN is far worse, as its history shows.

Agreed. I would vote for LFI over RN (albeit reluctantly).

The annoying bit is the following equation LFI has antisemtic members > LFI is antisemitic > the entire French left is antisemitic > let's put a fascist in charge > ???? > Profit.

Yes, practically everything after the second step there is wrong and dangerous.

[masako]

Mélanchon propose to shave for free a pro Islamist France, otherwise he promises chaos...

Your tendency to spout barely-sub-textual racism is concerning.

[xxx]

to shave for free is a Gallicism that indicates promises without funding...
it fits in well with the introduction into the public space of marks of recognition of antisemitic and antiwestern ideology
(and not of the race of the participants of all origins...),
but no, LFI doesn't intend to cut these terrorist seeds in the bud...

[Ares Land]

I've been watching politics since 1997, sometimes rather closely. French politics is truly an amazing thing!

For insance, any party that's even slightly less pro-business than the other is always too soft on crime, when not actually encouraging terrorism. There is an amazing correlation between higher taxes for the rich and support for Islamism. Incredible.

I'm sure this has nothing to do with all social media, most TV and radio networks nd almost all newspaper being owned by billionaires.

Truly astonishing, I tell you.