Elections in various countries

[Ares Land]

Anyway, the RN did very well (33.5%), followed by the Front Populaire at 28.1%, and Macron's list at 20.7%.

Participation was very high, and due to the intricacies of the electoral system, there will be a lot of three way races in the second round. A big unknown is whether the candidate that comes last in each consituencies will step down. Front Populaire candidate will, when the case arises. Whether Ensemble (Macron's alliance) candidate will do so is not always clear.

Three way races will give some advantage to the RN; but Macron and allies are being, hmm, weaselly about stepping down. Especially so when they have to step down in favor of a LFI candidate. (There's a single Front Populaire candidate in each constituency, can be Green, Communist, PS or LFI)

The electoral systems got pretty arcane here; I tried to sum things up as best I can. Hope this makes sense somehow.

It's very probable the RN gets a majority. Needless to say, I'm not happy about it.

[xxx]

you become insulting and you veil your face...

it's not a mistake, France hasn't become fascist...
it's just parties stuck on obsolete ideologies
that refuse to listen to their voters' demands
and respond to the problems they face...

there's no need for false shame or hypocritical morality,
it's a question of proposing measures
adapted to the real problems of voters...

we're not going again to end up electing Hitler
just because the parties can't open their eyes above their blinkers
and carry on with their little political tricks to gain little power......

[Ares Land]

You deserve to be insulted.

[xxx]

you're insane, wake up...

[zompist]

OK, that's enough. xxx, you can take a day off. Then stop trolling about Muslims in France; racism is against the house rules.

(Since we haven't had one of these for awhile, a procedural note: xxx has been warned before, so this is a 1-day ban. The idea is bans of increasing length, but people who double down on their antisocial tendencies can accelerate the process.)

[Ares Land]

More on this now that we have the full election results.

No chance of the Front Populaire getting anywhere close to a majority -- they would have to win in every single consistuency where they remain in the second round. Most if not all follow the simple logic of stepping down when in third position.
The traditional right and Macron's center-right are being difficult about it. This is not surprising but still infuriating. As a reminder, Macron and his coalition are in power due to left-wing voters doing the right thing. Unsuprisingly centrists and right-wingers are a lot less bothered with the prospect of seeing the fascists win.

My own consistuency is likely to have a three way contest, with the RN winning.

The one hope remaining is that the RN doesn't get a clear majority. A technocratic government, similar to the Draghi government in Italy would be a possibility then.

Macron and PM Attal are evidently hoping for some sort of wide coalition with the bits of the left they like. Macron is a very clever politician and he could've pulled it off... But the centrists have been so insulting with the left it looks impossible now. Also there is the presidential election in 2027 to think of, and if anyone wants a chance against the RN candidate then, the one thing to do is to avoid Macron like the plague.

In my view, there is a very real possibility that the RN gets a majority and Bardella becomes PM; either through the vote or by building a coalition. A lot of people, ordinary voters and people in higher circles are working under the impression that the RN won't be so bad. As the coming months or years will make clear, they are wrong.

[WeepingElf]

The one hope remaining is that the RN doesn't get a clear majority. A technocratic government, similar to the Draghi government in Italy would be a possibility then.

Yes. A nonpartisan technocratic government is certainly preferable over a government which includes fascists!