Zompist Bboard Again

WeepingElf wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 5:21 am I don't know much about the French constitution, but does the President have the power to veto acts of the National Assembly? If yes, Macron may be able to stop the worst abuses, and thereby force the RN into compromises. Perhaps it won't result in anything worse than the Meloni government in Italy (which is pretty bad but not as bad as some people feared beforehand). You have to know that I am always hopeful, though I don't expect miracles.

No veto power. The French president's power rests on what the Romans called auctoritas, and Macron hasn't much left. His role would be more or less that of the German federal president.
One important bit where he can still restrict a RN government is that much of what they'd like to do is unconstitutional. They'd need a referendum and constitutional reform, and they can't do that without the President cooperating. So there are safeguards against the worst excesses.

One thing to note is that Meloni is pushing for a revision of the constitution too. Generally it looks like the far right, in Italy, in Poland or Hungary starts out slow and prefers to gradually erode constitutional protections rather than do anything dramatic. We can expect it'd go down that way here too. That being said, the far right in Europe usually works with the traditional right and can rely on experienced people. RN members, by contrast, will be mostly alone, plus they are thugs and generally pretty dumb. So they might get frustrated quickly and try for a coup instead. I don't think they would though -- they have to look respectable at least until the presidential election in 2027.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:38 am

MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:33 am No, quite the contrary. CGT, FSU and some parts of SUD have actively called for NFP. The student unions UNEF and Union Etudiante have also done so. Calling actively for a political coalition is a first in French politics for a century. That was the charte d'Amiens. Others, like CFDT, have called against RN.

My bad. I must have read some overly pessimistic article somewhere!

---

On the opinion polls, though, I'll admit to a lot of caution and pessimism. This wouldn't be the first time they're excessively optimistic.

The first round polls slightly *over*estimated the RN vote, but were otherwise reliable. The second round votes the pollsters themselves recognise the difficulties, especially with the sudden increase in participation and the new situation of many triangular elections becoming dual ones. Even with most of the three-way elections becoming two-way, there are still more than ever before.

The second round seat projections certainly understimated the RN in 2022, but the government coalition had a more ambiguous approach, in that they equated the left and the far right. It was more akin to that of the first round this time. Their second round approach is more clearly anti-RN than the first round one.

WeepingElf wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 5:21 am I don't know much about the French constitution, but does the President have the power to veto acts of the National Assembly? If yes, Macron may be able to stop the worst abuses, and thereby force the RN into compromises. Perhaps it won't result in anything worse than the Meloni government in Italy (which is pretty bad but not as bad as some people feared beforehand). You have to know that I am always hopeful, though I don't expect miracles.

Under Article 10 of the French Constitution, the President of France does have the power to request that Parliament reconsider a bill within 15 days of receiving it, but only once (and it can still get passed by the same majority that passed it initially), so it's a very weak veto power. He can also refer bills for review by the Constitutional Council (Article 61), but if it's judged constitutional, there's not much else to be done.

This just in: huge surprise. RN came out third. NFP is first, Ensemble did better than expected.
(No clear majority though)

I'm off to get drunk or something.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 1:08 pm This just in: huge surprise. RN came out third. NFP is first, Ensemble did better than expected.
(No clear majority though)

Wow!

Apparently it was a record turnout, too. I’m guessing that the prospect of a RN government was sufficient to get people motivated to vote against them.

Let's hope this holds true through the night.

A big rock fell off my heart when I read these news. Of course, government formation will be difficult, in a country that has not much of a tradition of coalition governments; but at least, the RN majority so many of us feared did not happen.

This is such a relief for me. These results raise my hopes that the spread of fascism can be stemmed.

Travis B. wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 3:33 pm This is such a relief for me. These results raise my hopes that the spread of fascism can be stemmed.

Yes. Everybody feared the RN would win a majority in the Assembly, but they not only missed that, they finished third behind the Macronists. This is a reason to hope the best for France and for the EU, even though the negotiations between the leftists and the centrists to form a new government won't be easy. And a few days before, the UK voters sacked Sunak and his cronies. Yeah!

So I turned out to be wrong about several things, and I'm very happy about that.
One is that the RN didn't do as well as I expected -- though 143 seats is way too many.

NFP doing better than anyone expected is good news too, so it turns out the NFP platform is actually still relevant.

At this stage it's really unclear who will govern and with whom.

One big question is how to neutralize the RN as much as possible until 2027, again 143 seats is way too much. Still, that was a good night.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:09 am So I turned out to be wrong about several things, and I'm very happy about that.
One is that the RN didn't do as well as I expected -- though 143 seats is way too many.

There's no shame in that. It looked bad. I saw a report that 213 third-place candidates (left and center) stood down in order to keep RN out, which is a level of cooperation that wasn't guaranteed.

I can only hope Trump does as badly.

One big question is how to neutralize the RN as much as possible until 2027, again 143 seats is way too much.

It's not pretty. It seems to me you have an advantage with proportional representation: it seems like a winning coalition that's not Macron appeared out of nowhere. With FPTP it's hard to keep the bad guys out indefinitely with just one party. Voters are fickle and parties in power lose their effectiveness.

zompist wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:41 am It's not pretty. It seems to me you have an advantage with proportional representation: it seems like a winning coalition that's not Macron appeared out of nowhere. With FPTP it's hard to keep the bad guys out indefinitely with just one party. Voters are fickle and parties in power lose their effectiveness.

The system isn't proportional, but two-rounds FPTP. It's not as bad as single-round FPTP, but it took quite a bit of ingenuity to overcome.
NFP is a very demanding kind of alliance: it requires people from four parties that basically hate each other to cooperate very closely. They had some experience with NUPES in 2022 though.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:06 am The system isn't proportional, but two-rounds FPTP. It's not as bad as single-round FPTP, but it took quite a bit of ingenuity to overcome.
NFP is a very demanding kind of alliance: it requires people from four parties that basically hate each other to cooperate very closely. They had some experience with NUPES in 2022 though.

Ah, sorry! How do you manage to have four major political coalitions (and that's counting NFP as one) with nearly-FPTP?

(I know the Brits have for a century kept 3 parties around with old-style FPTP. But they have centuries of experience building bafflingly arcane and inefficient institutions.)

zompist wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 5:01 am

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:06 am The system isn't proportional, but two-rounds FPTP. It's not as bad as single-round FPTP, but it took quite a bit of ingenuity to overcome.
NFP is a very demanding kind of alliance: it requires people from four parties that basically hate each other to cooperate very closely. They had some experience with NUPES in 2022 though.

Ah, sorry! How do you manage to have four major political coalitions (and that's counting NFP as one) with nearly-FPTP?

(I know the Brits have for a century kept 3 parties around with old-style FPTP. But they have centuries of experience building bafflingly arcane and inefficient institutions.)

More like three and a half: LR is still around and did better than expected, but they're smaller than the other three.

But anyway, your question still stands and I don't think anyone has a good answer. If I had to guess, I suppose Macron calculated this would amount to a fight between his side and the RN and he still can't understand where he went wrong.

A few ideas though.
Up until 2017 we had two clearly defined left-wing and right-wing blocks in Parliament (though never bipartisan, it was clear what the alliances were.) All was as theoricians would predict.
The big factor is that we have an unusual configuration where one third the voters want the RN and nothing else, while the other two thirds don't want to do anything with them.
Another key bit is Macron himself, from a center-left party and elected by left-wing votes to counter Le Pen, but pursuing a right-wing policy. The problem is... 2017's not so long ago; the left-wing voters are still there and they haven't converted to centrism. (Personally, I think Macron's policies have generally been really bad, but YMMV.)

Other factors:

• The presidential election is a great platform for (sometimes eccentric) outsiders. It's always very good for the RN, as by nature the campaign has to revolve around a central charismatic figure.
• Other elections: European, municipal, regional have different systems, but always a kind of proportional system.

European or local elections reveal political trends; historically the RN did well in those, and not well at all in the legislative elections. Macron took the European elections' result as a clear signal.
More positively, I think they played a big factor in building left-wing coalitions. With a number of Green mayors and left-wing forces not doing so bad in the European elections, it's harder to insist the only two forces in presence are Macron and the RN.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:09 am So I turned out to be wrong about several things, and I'm very happy about that.
One is that the RN didn't do as well as I expected -- though 143 seats is way too many.

Yes - every single seat for a far-right party is one too many!

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:09 am NFP doing better than anyone expected is good news too, so it turns out the NFP platform is actually still relevant.

At this stage it's really unclear who will govern and with whom.

One big question is how to neutralize the RN as much as possible until 2027, again 143 seats is way too much. Still, that was a good night.

Yep.

Everything remains to be done,

the PFN is the second largest group in terms of votes and have a majority of deputies (!, at least we avoided the riots...),
and LFI, according to the pre-electoral agreements, obtains the largest number of seats in it, and claims the post of prime minister.

Macron's party is the third-largest in terms of votes and the second-largest in terms of number of MPs (!!), and would have great difficulty forming a government on its own,

the RN, the leading party in terms of votes and the third largest number of MPs (!?),
risks seeing the expectations of its majority voters ignored,

at the risk of a worse next election...
but no party is willing to step outside its ideological sphere, despite the alarming situation...

business as usual, democracy no thanks...

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 7:18 am Everything remains to be done,

Finally something we can agree on

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 7:18 am risks seeing the expectations of its majority voters ignored,

at the risk of a worse next election...
but no party is willing to step outside its ideological sphere, despite the alarming situation...

That's really the part I don't get; and it's not just you, but plenty of right-wing commentators. What you're suggesting is implementing the RN's policies on immigration and Islam... so more or less become the RN to fight the RN? I remember Sarkozy trying to do that... Essentially getting as close to the far-right policy while remaining within the bounds of liberal democracy. That didn't work out; not for him: he lost the next election; not against the far-right: which really took off after his presidency; not for France either, which was not particularly safer or more prosperous as a result.
Macron tried to do the same lately; with hardliners such as Darmanin, or the immigration law, which was pretty drastic. The RN voters still didn't get what they wanted. At the risk of repeating myself: you can't really outlaw Muslims forever, so that expectation is one that can't be met, within the rules of liberal democracy.

For that matter, I don't think a RN victory in three years is inevitable.

I don't think Islam is any more of a problem,
than Catholicism, Protestantism or Buddhism,
in a laical society...

sweeping votes under the carpet,
and repressing them until the next election,
is the problem...

or no longer being proud of your own values,
and no longer being able to set an example for others to follow,
and leaving them to the extremists...

or confusing human rights with humiliating charity,
this is not what those who have chosen France are looking for,
for what is free and effortless has no value...

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:55 pm I don't think Islam is any more of a problem,
than Catholicism, Protestantism or Buddhism,
in a laical society...

sweeping votes under the carpet,
and repressing them until the next election,
is the problem...

or no longer being proud of your own values,
and no longer being able to set an example for others to follow,
and leaving them to the extremists...

or confusing human rights with humiliating charity,
this is not what those who have chosen France are looking for,
for what is free and effortless has no value...

Umm the people of France didn't want the far-right to come to power in France. How is enabling the people's will, by avoiding vote splitting, "sweeping votes under the carpet, and repressing them until the next election"?

xxx wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:55 pm I don't think Islam is any more of a problem,
than Catholicism, Protestantism or Buddhism,
in a laical society...

Ah yes, the old story… ‘I have no problems with religion, all I ask is for no-one to look or behave differently’. Right.