Zompist Bboard Again

Raphael wrote: ↑Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:59 am But hasn't Lachlan pretty much won out in those struggles now?

I mean, it seems he's won the executive chairmanship, yeah, but until old Ruprup is in the forever Downunder, nothing is truly settled.

Out of curiosity, has anyone interesting and viable decided to primary-challenge Pelosi yet?

Oh.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66963341

Does this mean McConnell gets to be Majority Leader for the three days until Newsom appoints a replacement now?

Raphael wrote: ↑Fri Sep 29, 2023 8:05 am Does this mean McConnell gets to be Majority Leader for the three days until Newsom appoints a replacement now?

No, because he is not in the majority. It's 50-49 for the Democrats (including 3 'independents').

zompist wrote: ↑Fri Sep 29, 2023 1:54 pm

Raphael wrote: ↑Fri Sep 29, 2023 8:05 am Does this mean McConnell gets to be Majority Leader for the three days until Newsom appoints a replacement now?

No, because he is not in the majority. It's 50-49 for the Democrats (including 3 'independents').

Ah, thank you!

For all those not paying attention, this is the threat that faces all Americans today: https://www.alternet.org/red-caesar/.

Travis B. wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:21 am For all those not paying attention, this is the threat that faces all Americans today: https://www.alternet.org/red-caesar/.

The more insidious (and likely) possibility is the Project 2025.

Could someone explain the basic structure of a major US federal government cabinet-level department to me? I mean, I get that at the top there's the Secretary, who's overall in charge. But below that, there's a dizzying collection of Deputy Secretaries, Assistant Secretaries, Undersecretaries, and perhaps Assistant Deputy Undersecretaries as well. I have no idea how each of these ranks compares to each other rank. And that makes following historical or journalistic accounts of the stuff happening inside the US government a bit difficult for me.

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 9:07 am Could someone explain the basic structure of a major US federal government cabinet-level department to me?

Well, they're not all exactly analogous to each other, so we'd almost have to go through them one-by-one.

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 9:07 am I have no idea how each of these ranks compares to each other rank. And that makes following historical or journalistic accounts of the stuff happening inside the US government a bit difficult for me.

Some of that is actually by design. Seriously.

Thank you. Hm, in State, it currently seems to be

Secretary
|
Deputy
|
Under
|
Assistant

https://www.state.gov/department-of-sta ... ion-chart/

Robert F Kennedy Jr announces independent run for 2024 US election

“The Democrats are frightened I’m going to spoil the election for President Biden, and the Republicans are frightened that I’m gonna spoil it for President Trump,” he said. “The truth is, they’re both right. My intention is to spoil it for both of them.”

Seriously, fuck this dude.

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 3:53 pm Robert F Kennedy Jr announces independent run for 2024 US election

“The Democrats are frightened I’m going to spoil the election for President Biden, and the Republicans are frightened that I’m gonna spoil it for President Trump,” he said. “The truth is, they’re both right. My intention is to spoil it for both of them.”

Seriously, fuck this dude.

Agreed most completely.

Third party candidates (in the US) never seem to realize they are messing with the very thing they purport to want to save/fix.

This guy is one of the worst because his antics are painfully obvious as publicity...not unlike several of the GOP ""candidates"".

I've seen someone seriously claim that this guy will take more votes from Trump than from Biden. Seems extremely unlikely to me, given that right-wingers - especially the sort most likely to go in for conspiracy theories - are a lot more in thrall to Trump than anyone is to Biden.

Raphael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 2:32 amI've seen someone seriously claim that this guy will take more votes from Trump than from Biden. Seems extremely unlikely to me, given that right-wingers - especially the sort most likely to go in for conspiracy theories - are a lot more in thrall to Trump than anyone is to Biden.

Yeah, I've seen that claim, too, and I'm not sure what the basis is for it beyond one recent poll (which lacks predictive power this far out). His main distinguishing feature seems to be his anti-vaccine nonsense, which Politico calls "a poor match for the Democrats". But there are loony anti-vax Democrats and my impression is that they're exactly the subgroup you'd expect might be impressed by the Kennedy name. (This despite the fact that four of his ten siblings have signed a letter condemning his candidacy and saying, in effect, he's not his father's son.) Why, if you were a MAGA antivaxxer, would you vote for an off-brand Trump when the real one is in the running? He seems to be polling best with independents, which tend to break more Democrat than Republican.This makes his ego-fueled vanity run really concerning. And, of course, since this the USA, we have a couple shadowy billionaires stuffing him full of money so he doesn't anything more than token support to keep going.

So, is Biden going to lose to a convict? What happens next?

PS. I previously heard he was struggling because the households buoyed up by Covid payments crashed once Biden stopped the payments. Now there are people saying they can't bring themselves to vote for a supporter of genocide no matter what, not even if the result is an even bigger genocide. Not sure which components are the most significant, and I don't have the free time to sort it out.

PPS. Given America's incarceration rates, is it all that surprising to get an incarcerated president eventually?

rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2023 3:58 amSo, is Biden going to lose to a convict? What happens next?

The predictive power of presidential polls is lousy this far out. A lot can happen between now and next November--including several more convictions.

Unfortunately the chances are looking better than I would have thought. For me the most distressing aspect of those polls is how Biden is tanking among young voters. It's not clear how much of this is due to recent factors (e.g. his staunch support of Israel), which could be less important months from now, and how much is due to age, which can't be changed.

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2023 10:13 amUnfortunately the chances are looking better than I would have thought. For me the most distressing aspect of those polls is how Biden is tanking among young voters. It's not clear how much of this is due to recent factors (e.g. his staunch support of Israel), which could be less important months from now, and how much is due to age, which can't be changed.

The age argument is of course ridiculous because his main rival is more or less of the same age.

MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2023 12:01 pm

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2023 10:13 amUnfortunately the chances are looking better than I would have thought. For me the most distressing aspect of those polls is how Biden is tanking among young voters. It's not clear how much of this is due to recent factors (e.g. his staunch support of Israel), which could be less important months from now, and how much is due to age, which can't be changed.

The age argument is of course ridiculous because his main rival is more or less of the same age.

Yes and no. I think the problem with that rebuttal is that it emphasises for younger voters just how limited their choices are: Do you want this doddering old white guy or do you want the other doddering old white guy? Keep in mind that the key to the youth vote is engagement. Many haven't internalised the directive of "Vote every time as if your life depended on it, because it does." For them it's a less a choice between this guy or that guy and more a choice between this guy and not voting at all.

A year is an eternity in politics. Still, we just had elections and they don't support the "Trump-über-alles" analysis.

1. A Democrat was re-elected governor of Kentucky, by 52.5%. The state went 62% for Trump in 2020.
2. Democrats took control of both houses of the legislature in Virginia.
3. A constitutional amendment protecting abortion passed in Ohio by 57%. (Ohio also went to Trump in 2020.)

The key issue in all three victories was abortion rights. Repealing Roe, and aggressive anti-abortion laws and prosecutions, are wildly unpopular-- and the abortion rights side is just as fired-up as the anti-abortion side.

As ever, don't be complacent, consume responsibly, use adequate ventilation, etc.