Elections in various countries

[Raphael]

Looks like they'll elect an actual organized crime leader to the legislature in Ireland:

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/202 ... n-central/

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/res ... in-central

[Raphael]

Looks like they'll elect an actual organized crime leader to the legislature in Ireland:

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/202 ... n-central/

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-24/res ... in-central

Or not. He was overtaken on the last count.

EDIT: The candidate who overtook him on the last count has the surname Sherlock.

[Raphael]

The news from Ireland after Friday's election seems to be that, out of 174 seats in the Dáil - the more important one of the houses of Parliament - 161 have been definitely filled, one has been kind of provisionally filled, pending a possible recount that might take days, and 12 are still unfilled.

The results for the various parties, sorted roughly from left to right, keeping in mind that 12 seats still need to be filled, are:

On the hard left, People Before Profit - Solidarity has 3 seats so far, or perhaps they'll get 4 if they're lucky in the aforementioned potential recount.

Sinn Féin, a party whose relationship to the left might be fairly described as "complicated", though they're usually seen as left-wing, currently has 36 seats.

On the moderate left, the Social Democrats are on 11 seats, the Labour Party has either 8 or 9 seats, depending on what happens in the aforementioned potential recount, and the Greens have 1 seat, for a total of 20 or 21 seats for that corner of the political spectrum as a whole. Out of those three, the Greens are the only ones who took part in the outgoing governing coalition, and they completely collapsed - they had gotten 12 seats in the previous election. This may or may not have an impact on how the other two of those parties approach joining a potential coalition.

Over on the center-right, Fianna Fáil currently has 43 seats, and Fine Gael currently has 36 seats, for a combined total of 79 seats. For now, a coalition of those two with either the Social Democrats or Labour or both of them seems most likely.

The conservative Aontú party currently has 2 seats. (They're a fairly new party, trying to appeal to people who think the older parties aren't culturally conservative enough any more.)

On the hard right, Independent Ireland currently has 4 seats. Some people seem to have thought they'd get a lot more.

The 100% Redress Party, which is apparently a single issue party whose single issue is full compensation for home builders who got cheated by suppliers of dodgy building materials in some big scandal a while ago, has 1 seat.

16 seats went to independent candidates. You could probably guess based on purely theoretical considerations that the Irish multi-member constituency single transferable vote election system would lead to a lot of independent office holders, and that's pretty much what happens.

[Darren]

The 100% Redress Party, which is apparently a single issue party whose single issue is full compensation for home builders who got cheated by suppliers of dodgy building materials in some big scandal a while ago, has 1 seat.

That's mildly inspirational

[Raphael]

Irish final results, with all Dáil seats filled:

174 seats total

Fianna Fáil 48 seats
Sinn Féin 39 seats
Fine Gael 38 seats
Labour 11 seats
Social Democrats 11 seats
Independent Ireland 4 seats
People Before Profit - Solidarity 3 seats
Aontú 2 seats
Greens 1 seat
100% Redress 1 seat
Independents 16 seats

[Ares Land]

No elections here for some time, but the French government was overthrown. The left and far-right voted a motion of no confidence.
There's a procedure called 49.3 (the relevant article in the constitution) the governement to pass a law skippign all parliamentary debate, provided the government doesn't get a motion of no confidence. It usually works -- but didn't this time.

The left's always been very open about wanting to overthrow the government; the far right was willing to work with PM Barnier for some time. Evidently they felt a demonstration of power was in order.

Now we'll see what will get. (Personally, I didn't like the Barnier government much and I expect the next one to cater to the far right even more, so I don't expect any pleasant surprises.)

[bradrn]

Now we'll see what will get. (Personally, I didn't like the Barnier government much and I expect the next one to cater to the far right even more, so I don't expect any pleasant surprises.)

This has been my prediction too. I reckon the next government will include either LFI or RN, and a coalition of the right seems much more likely than a coalition of the left, so RN it would be.

[Ares Land]

Now we'll see what will get. (Personally, I didn't like the Barnier government much and I expect the next one to cater to the far right even more, so I don't expect any pleasant surprises.)

This has been my prediction too. I reckon the next government will include either LFI or RN, and a coalition of the right seems much more likely than a coalition of the left, so RN it would be.

My prediction is a right-wing government, excluding the RN, but including very, very conservative members of LR.
Macron won't accept a government with RN members, it would make him look bad. The RN is not interested in being part of the government, it's too much like work.

[Lērisama]

Macron won't accept a government with RN members, it would make him look bad. The RN is not interested in being part of the government, it's too much like work.

Ugh, I'm familiar with that branch of the far right. Why do government when that would just make everyone worse off, lose you votes¹ and involve actual effort when you can snipe from the sidelines and embezzle public money² instead? It's much more fun

¹ Because people realise you aren't a frustrated messiah³. I'm not saying that they don't want to get into government only because it would expose them as frauds, but it must be a factor
² Aren't the RN in a court case about this one? It seems to be a constant, but it's good they do it so flagrantly that the courts can get involved
³ After a while, you are the state, and people start to realise you might be complicit it what your government is doing. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but it must be a risk for them

[bradrn]

Macron won't accept a government with RN members, it would make him look bad.

Really? I thought that any considerations of ‘looking bad’ had basically disappeared by now.

(Besides, didn’t RN help vote in Barnier?)

[Lērisama]

Macron won't accept a government with RN members, it would make him look bad.

Really? I thought that any considerations of ‘looking bad’ had basically disappeared by now.

(Besides, didn’t RN help vote in Barnier?)

I think they abstained, for plausible deniability reasons

[Ares Land]

Macron won't accept a government with RN members, it would make him look bad.

Really? I thought that any considerations of ‘looking bad’ had basically disappeared by now.

(Besides, didn’t RN help vote in Barnier?)

Macron looks pretty bad, but that would be the first time since WWII the far right enters a government -- being associated with that precedent would be incredibly damaging.

As for the other question... In France the president names the prime minister. The PM then can ask for parliament to vote him in by a motion of confidence, but they don't have to. Barnier didn't, of course. (Neither did any PM since 2022 I believe.)
Of course, it's an open secret that Macron had asked Le Pen's opinion, and that the RN was willing to work with Barnier for a while.

[bradrn]

As for the other question... In France the president names the prime minister. The PM then can ask for parliament to vote him in by a motion of confidence, but they don't have to. Barnier didn't, of course. (Neither did any PM since 2022 I believe.)
Of course, it's an open secret that Macron had asked Le Pen's opinion, and that the RN was willing to work with Barnier for a while.

Ah, OK. I’m used to a non-presidential system where the PM must have confidence in order to govern.

[Ares Land]

As for the other question... In France the president names the prime minister. The PM then can ask for parliament to vote him in by a motion of confidence, but they don't have to. Barnier didn't, of course. (Neither did any PM since 2022 I believe.)
Of course, it's an open secret that Macron had asked Le Pen's opinion, and that the RN was willing to work with Barnier for a while.

Ah, OK. I’m used to a non-presidential system where the PM must have confidence in order to govern.

If you're confused, that's an entirely normal reaction! This is a very interesting situation, for apocryphal ancient Chinese curse values of 'interesting.' I'm keeping an eye on what constitutionalists are saying and they're kind of confused too.

We're in a situation that, according to standard political theory, is not supposed to happen. Under our voting system, we shouldn't have that sort of parliament, for instance.

[Ares Land]

The PS (socialistes, center-left, give or take) is apparently open to negotiations now.

It could mean a govenrment somewhat less to the right. Dubious though; Macron's centrists and the RN aren't really amenable to left-wing policies, so either the negotiations peters out or the PS accepts to lead right-wing policies to get minister portfolios, but it's possible.
This has interesting implications for the left-wing electoral alliance, which probably won't survive such a move.

[Ares Land]

The current round of discussion includes the Greens and the communists. LFI still out of any possible deal. Surprisingly, so is the RN.

I personally feel the left should enter a coalition, or at least find some kind of agreement. I am angry at Macron's general cynicism, and I also feel the left-wing should be more agressively left-wing.
Yet I am annoyed at left-wing commentators feeling this is some kind of betrayal. Yeah, we're not going to get a left-wing platform applied but no, this is not some kind of betrayal -- this is the result of there not being a left-wing majority in parliament.

We're going to governed by a sort of coalition nobody likes anyway, I'd rather the left was on it rather than the RN.

[Raphael]

Yet I am annoyed at left-wing commentators feeling this is some kind of betrayal. Yeah, we're not going to get a left-wing platform applied but no, this is not some kind of betrayal -- this is the result of there not being a left-wing majority in parliament.

We're going to governed by a sort of coalition nobody likes anyway, I'd rather the left was on it rather than the RN.

Completely agreed.

[bradrn]

So, apparently Macron has decided on a new PM, but we don’t yet know who it will be. The name I’m seeing mentioned is François Bayrou… could the better-informed here explain who that is?

[Ares Land]

Macron keeps delaying which I think is starting to get on everyone's nerves. I guess it's good to be king!

François Bayrou is a centrist, though not from Macron's relatively recent centrist party; he's been around since basically forever. I remember he was Minister for Education when I was in primary school (so when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, according to my kids).
He was a candidate in almost every presidential election, until 2017 when he decided to support Macron. We can place him as Macron's ally, though a difficult one, I hear.

Politically, kind of a right-winger really though without any sympathies for the far right. Not entirely honest I guess, since he's been High Commissioner to the Plan which to put it kindly seems to involve a high compensation but very light duties.
Otherwise neutral, hard to hate but not particularly likeable, difficult to get excited about but hard to be really angry with either.


It's a bit weird that Macron would keep us waiting for a whole week before selecting the political equivalent of vanilla ice cream, but again, it's good to be king.


Oh: believe in your dreams, folks. The guy has been waiting to save France for decades and now he gets the dream job!

[xxx]

it's him :