Ares Land wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:07 am
I think a likely scenario is that Trump simply applies the standard procedure for Republican administrations, only more so. You get tax cuts for the rich, a few measures for the Religious Right, conservative appointments wherever possible, generally beating up the poor and minorities, foreign policy that involves letting Russia do its thing, letting Likud do its thing, crazy foreign interventions are not out of the question. All of this hurts a lot but won't really affect neoliberalism or the status of the US as a superpower. The US's been there before. Additional likely events: appointments, gerrymandering and supreme court decision that ensures Republicans stay in power more or less forever, or get increasingly hard to dislodge.
You're doing a good job worrying, but I'm afraid Trump II will be far worse than that.
* Criminalization of dissent, as in Florida.
* Breaking up NATO. Support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and whoever's next.
* Very likely a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
* Politicization of the civil service.
* Continued MAGA-ization of the judiciary. The aim of many existing cases is to prevent government agencies from doing anything Republicans dislike, like regulation of business and taxation of the rich. The details are arcane, but can be summarized very simply as a seizure of power by a hyper-Republican Supreme Court.
Plus, you know, reversing progress on climate change is precisely what we don't need right now. We're already getting insane heat waves in Europe, starvation in the Sahel, stronger storms and wildfires, collapsing fish populations.
But Torco will get to crow about how the horrible Americans are getting what they deserve. Of course the rich will be exempt, but at least poor people, women, sexual minorities, and the "woke" will suffer.
Trump II administration turns out incredibly incompetent, seriously threatening the economy or the state stability. This is the most dangerous scenario, because this is where we get into fascism territory. The original fascists and Nazis were very bad at what they did; state power and efficiency was weakened by the constant purges and infighting. Fascists get really dangerous when they start to fail: that's when we got WWII, the Salo republic, the works. Getting back to Trump -- let's imagine the United States turn into a fail state. The state apparatus is breaking down, the economy is in the dumps, there are riots in the streets. They still have the largest army in the word and if you don't think they're not going to invade Mexico to attract attention elsewhere, you're more naive than I thought.
Oh, the incompetence is a given. And I'd say, so is foreign intervention, Mexico being a good possibility. Trump doesn't seem to seek out wars... but he was known, when in power, to keep asking "Why can't we just use nukes?" His party is going to find enemies abroad and he's impulsive.
The US sets the tone for much of Latin America and Africa, without determining everything. In the Cold War the US and USSR both preferred dictatorships and that's what they got. From the 80s, the US preferred democracies and lo and behold, democracies proliferated. Torco's idea that a fascist US will somehow not lead to a fascist Latin America is foolish.
Look at something like the coup attempt in Bolivia. The US and EU frowned, and the coup failed. This is precisely the sort of thing where Trump could get one more fascist in power while expending barely any effort. (We don't know exactly what happened, and I'm not discounting Bolivian internal opposition.)
Incompetence is not much of a mitigation. Trump himself is almost a sideshow; his importance is not so much what he personally wants to do, but the lawlessness which he normalizes. A corrupt and incompetent right-wing authoritarian state, with the opposition easily kept out of power, can persist for decades. And that's in part because the incompetence is carefully restricted to actually governing. They're generally quite competent at keeping in power, beating down the poor, and making the rich richer.
(I have said that fascist regimes tend to cause immense destruction and then implode. They can't be satisfied with just holding on like conservatives, they have to try out their worst fantasies. That works in some case, e.g. Trump's first term, or Bolsonaro. Probably the UK Conservatives are about to get decimated. But the other failure mode is Putin's Russia or Modi's India: they are generably horrible and they're a danger to their neighbors, but they're also well entrenched in power.)