Zompist Bboard Again

chris_notts wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:08 pm

Richard W wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:59 pm

Jonlang wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:01 pm I'm genuinely terrified about catching this virus. I work for Her Majesty's Prison Service and am one of Boris' "key workers" so I am expected to work as normal. I have asthma and a compromised immune system (my immune system has tried to kill me in the past).

Were you expecting to get the letter telling you to stay home for 12 weeks? (As opposed to the text baldly telling you to stay home.)

Were they sending letters? I'm really not sure how they would identify everyone "at risk". My wife has asthma, repeated chest infections and had a case of pneumonia a couple of years ago that required a brief hospital stay, and she's very worried right now. She's also yet to receive any kind of letter, despite these facts being known to our GP.

I heard from a normally unreliable source (BoJo at a press briefing) that vulnerable people would be sent such a letter, and thought it was to be received by Saturday 21 March. (I was worried that it could result in my being dismissed as unfit to perform my job.) All I can find in writing now is that extremely vulnerable people will be sent a letter, starting on that date. https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... m-covid-19 rather implies your wife should receive a letter, but perhaps her asthma is not considered 'severe'. Perhaps the 'instruction' that merely vulnerable people self-isolate for 12 weeks has been withdrawn.

On a lighter note, a 1822 remedy for respiratory infections: take plenty of foot baths, and apply a dozen leeches on your neck. These steps should be taken early on in the course of the infection.
Try it out at home! (and send pictures)

Richard W wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:59 pm

Jonlang wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:01 pm I'm genuinely terrified about catching this virus. I work for Her Majesty's Prison Service and am one of Boris' "key workers" so I am expected to work as normal. I have asthma and a compromised immune system (my immune system has tried to kill me in the past).

Were you expecting to get the letter telling you to stay home for 12 weeks? (As opposed to the text baldly telling you to stay home.)

Not particularly, but my employer is aware of my situation (and others I work with), and seeing as I am a Government employee I expected better of them in terms of protecting their staff – especially when providing such a vital public service. Luckily, I haven't shown any symptoms and nor has my partner.

chris_notts wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:10 pmFunny how there is no magic money tree until the rich and powerful want there to be one.

Oh, in some other countries, there has been at various points in the past.

Boris Johnson has tested positive for COVID-19. While somewhat ironic, as others have pointed out, his being a politician means that he's more likely to deal with crowds, and make public appearances, shake hands, etc. and be surrounded by journalists (who themselves are often surrounded by crowds, or by other journalists who are often surrounded by crowds).

He's now said, IIRC, that he will still lead the charge on the efforts to prevent the spread and effect of COVID-19 via video-call while he self-isolates.

Covid-19 has now killed more Americans than Hurricane Katrina. Lockdowns may be helping to flatten the curve, but of course those take 12 days to show up in the statistics, and all the lockdowns are less than 12 days old.

If these measures go on much longer, we're going to face a paradox. Social distancing means people stay home. Staying home means unemployment. Unemployment means an inability to pay rent, which means eviction. Eviction means an inability to stay home. Couch surfing, moving back in with parents, and living on the street sound like great ways to spread disease to me. So it almost seems unavoidable that any successful lockdown must include, at a minimum, a temporary freeze on eviction proceedings. April will probably be fine, but if May 1st roles around and these isolation measures are still in place, with no society-wide rent holiday or eviction freeze, we're going to lose our ability to maintain social distancing. Models show that even a small number of non-compliant actors can render a social distancing strategy much less effective, so a wave of evictions could easily lead to a spike in new cases and, a few days later, a spike in deaths. Fivethirtyeight has a running survey of medical professionals, and their consensus is that May will probably be the month that sees a peak in the number of deaths.

Part of me, a part that lives waaay deep down, dares to hope that Coronavirus might finally be the thing that breaks late stage Capitalism, because we are looking at economic realities that simply do not compute.

Moose-tache wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 pm Part of me, a part that lives waaay deep down, dares to hope that Coronavirus might finally be the thing that breaks late stage Capitalism, because we are looking at economic realities that simply do not compute.

Of course, the replacement system may be high-tech neo-feudalism, in which Grand Duke Bezos pays off your debts in exchange for the indentured labour of yourself and your children... which wouldn't be a great change to the way Amazon already works from his point of view.

Not to mention the transition is gonna ruin or end plenty of lives: not that late stage capitalism doesn't but hey. I trust it'll be worth it for the end of absurd copyright law alone.

Something silly that just occurred to me: In one of the most iconic MST3K episodes, one line was "Relax, you're in your own room!" Ok, right now a lot of people have trouble relaxing partly because they're in their own room all the time. (I'm sure there's a joke somewhere in there, but I can't find it.)

Oh, hi Torco! Nice to see you around here. I hope all's well for you.

Moose-tache wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 pm Part of me, a part that lives waaay deep down, dares to hope that Coronavirus might finally be the thing that breaks late stage Capitalism, because we are looking at economic realities that simply do not compute.

There's another possibility. I believe social distancing measures will be greatly relaxed a) as soon as the powers that be figure out how much exactly they'll cost b) they can end the lockdown without losing face.

As for ending capitalism... No, I don't think so. Over here in socialist hell, labor laws are already being suspended, in part, for the sake of the 'state of emergency'. For that matter, it'll be smal businesses that suffer. Uber or Amazon or Wal-Mart will be fine.

iI don't how things will play out in the UK or the US. But in the EU, I have a few ideas. Merkel said no to coronabonds. The crisis is going to put some major stress on various kinds of welfare, governments will face some serious pressure from businesses, plus he coming recession... I think the social distantiation or the state of emergency won't quite go away, but we'll have no choice but to get back to work pretty soon (and perhaps prematurely).

Of course, that's just a random thought, not predictions. The situation is really unprecedented and unpredictable; a lot will depend on how the epidemic evolves now, in Italy, or in Wuhan where the lockdown recently ended.

Meanwhile, Covid-19 has made the current leader of the British Conservative and Unionist Party acknowledge that society does, in fact, exist:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/tories-and-society

Ars Lande wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:19 pmlabor laws are already being suspended, in part, for the sake of the 'state of emergency'.

Now I'm curious - which labor laws, and in which way?

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:30 pm

Ars Lande wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:19 pmlabor laws are already being suspended, in part, for the sake of the 'state of emergency'.

Now I'm curious - which labor laws, and in which way?

Mostly, the work week has been extended to 60 hours, and the mandatory rest period to 9 hours. Of course that's only a temporary emergency measure for critical sectors, nothing to worry about! (*)


(*) It's supposed to last until December. But there's really nothing preventing Parliament from prolonging it; also, no matter what happens, the virus'll still be around by then, so of course, we'll still be in a public health crisis, technically. Also I don't think the critical sectors have been defined in any meaningful way. We have a long history of powerful trade unions, mass strikes and demonstrations, but say if, by some cruel twist of fate that no one could possibly predict, COVID-19 was to be back next winter, it would really be unsanitary and irresponsible to go on a strike or to protest, wouldn't it?

Ah, thank you.

So I've been researching this coronavirus since 3/13 and made a facebook group summarizing all the core information. It's a Public group (anyone can see whatever's written in it) but please join to show support:

Coronavirus Macomb County Michigan USA by Local Genius Larry Rogers Jr.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/960728787657295/
The name is supposed to be funny and memorable for locals. I grew up in this county. It's only the second group for coronavirus and that county.

I also put up annoucement posts in all of my

I study medical science a bit, am a former lifeguard, firefighter, and am trained in medical records coding and billing. Also, I have 5 years' experience running many facebook groups of up to 10,000 people. Which is a big deal, most of the USA and Michigan coronavirus groups are not run very sensibly. Yikes! My wife actually has studied disasters for years. And I've joined her a bit in this. And then I also study all sorts of things, especially safety matters.

I don't think it's a big hoax, I think the danger is real. Here are the dangers:

1) People will get sick before the vaccine is out and will get hospitalized or die of it.
2) Due to ICU bed and ventilator shortages, among other things.
3) Then other the other hand, having people quit their jobs and not working will hurt the economy.
4) And poor people living in trailer homes and apartments will be the least able to handle this thing. If they even believe in science or know anyone who can explain all the intricacies to them.

I feel for all these people, so I've been doing what I can.

The data from Italy and China earlier was that people under 70 don't die of it much and 70+ has an 8% mortality rate. People with preexisting medical conditions like asthma and COPD and such, these people are more likely to (get hospitalized?) and die. But recently I'm hearing more young people are getting hospitalized and dying than expected. And it's not clear what's going on. Is it because of asthma, obesity, etc.?

And I can't find updated statistics with demographics anywhere.

From what I read about China and Italy, the USA seems headed for a lot of avoidable deaths by ICU bed and ventilator shortage. And from what I hear and have seen during grocery runs, few here around Detroit seem to take this seriously enough: Not the government, not the people. I saw this short news spot or documentary on maybe BBC World about the Ebola Plague or Epidemic in the Congo recently. Lots of people involved just didn't believe ebola existed and that it was a government or foreign plot. And at least some people, maybe notably Republicans, seem to think things along those lines here in the USA.

There's a bunch of great wikipedia articles on Coronavirus Pandemic and Coronavirus Disease 2019 and on down to the country and state level. The C D 2019 article has this great chart about "the curve" which is a bell shaped curve or such on a graph - two. One is unideal and the other is ideal: Too many hospitalization cases too fast means ICU beds and ventilator shortages. The ideal is nothing like that. But there's another even better ideal where everyone could hold out for the vaccine in possibly 18 months (1.5 years).

But it sounds like most employers in the USA don't get it and or are willing to write off the lives of the older members of their employee's family. Wow, that's rough.

I also hear reports from all over the West that the most endangered demographic - 70+ - is just too senile to keep alive. By which I mean that I keep hearing from different reliable sources that 70+ people are not staying inside but wandering around grocery stores like they're lost. And this sort of thing. And if it's also hospitalizing much younger people, this sort of thing is endangering everyone.

Yeah, so, we'll see what the next year and a half brings.

...

From all the panic buying, it's quite obvious to me that most Americans - at least most Michigan people here around Detroit - apparently have not had a 5 years' supply of food and supplies stored in their houses. Why in the world would anyone not do that?

I read a recent New York Times article that the government tried starting around 2010 to have a huge stockpile of ventilators. But the contract fell through, so, hur-hyuck, whoops!

A month or so back, Italy ran out of ICU beds and ventilators. And it sounds like there was nobody sending them in from overseas. How did that happen? Of course, it didn't help that it started in China. Although the Black Death is now thought to have originated in China. It doesn't help that the media constantly reports ridiculous stories from China. Guess that one backfired, huh? Also, my experience with Chinese media is that it's totally full of bald-faced lies. And I've lived and worked in China quite a bit. But not since 2016!

...

But if I die, document all my work, put it in PDFs or Notepad files, and share it to everyone for their digital libraries. That's what I do with everyone else's scholarship, as far as possible. And hopefully my family will save a backup and keep sharing my scholarship online and continue my legacy, and teach their children to do the same, forever. But if not, it's happened to a lot of scholars before, and I know, and esteem them as they deserve. Ars longa, vita brevis. Swan song. But fortunately I have no preexisting conditions but asthma and am not so fat and get a lot of hard exercise. Also, I'm in my early 30's.

Here is the home page to all my websites and facebook groups:
https://anylanguageatall411.blogspot.co ... w=flipcard

But I wish you and your extended families all preservation from this coronavirus plague. And I thank you all and pledge the esteem of my generations and students to all of you that may die.

Screw up your courage now, get out the message, and act the hero.

Be ready should your country or world call now upon you.

Oh! Want to hear what's weird? Somewhere between maybe 2012 and 2016, maybe earlier, I figured out from research into history and population that the world was overdue for global plagues that would sadly remove up to 75% of the world's population, as the Black Death did for Eurasia c 1300.

I ever do a post about this about once a year to the facebook group World History. I did one last October, even.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/WorldHi ... 027020100/

The world's population, did you know?, is actually far far larger than it has ever been. Which I don't think is a problem but makes us all very ripe for plagues wiping out 75% of everyone. And modern travel technology does not help. But modern vaccine and such technology seems to help a lot.

But nukes are a bigger deal. I predict, from my research into anthropology across all ages, that world population will probably go down 75% or more within 100 or 500 years due to nuclear bombs. Maybe I shouldn't mention it but now seems like a good time.

Oh, what else? From vast reading and studying of many ancient languages and their texts, plus lots of other research, I actually know a lot of worthwhile and amazing secrets. But a lot of them you just can't share with anybody, almost all of the time.

But I did it all for you, folks, so I hope you know I bit the bullet for all of you. A big part of my decision to get the BA in Linguistics was growing up and developing a distrust for people. "Should we all rely on eachother and our leaders to find out what we should know and to tell us?" So I set out to find the secrets of the universe and use them for good. And, wow, I was successful. So it is possible to make a difference, and with good fortune and hard work, it can all pay off.

Hey, Ars ! still feels like home here. I'm perfectly safe this far, Chile is a lot earlier in its curve.

4) And poor people living in trailer homes and apartments will be the least able to handle this thing. If they even believe in science or know anyone who can explain all the intricacies to them.

holy fucking shit this is the most we-live-in-an-age-of-decadence thing I've read today. Are the lower classes in the empire already that lost ?

From all the panic buying, it's quite obvious to me that most Americans - at least most Michigan people here around Detroit - apparently have not had a 5 years' supply of food and supplies stored in their houses. Why in the world would anyone not do that?

please tell me this is ironic

But nukes are a bigger deal. I predict, from my research into anthropology across all ages, that world population will probably go down 75% or more within 100 or 500 years due to nuclear bombs. Maybe I shouldn't mention it but now seems like a good time.

I'm skeptical. I mean, I don't think those events aren't in our future, they're likely to be: hell, at some point humanity will end, like everything else, but I think in our overall history, present and future included, after we get medicine down such a big plague is likely to be a lot less frequent than before we did. Nukes have been pretty good at reducing wars... this far, though that might change, granted.

In related news, a 108 year old woman from the UK who had survived the 1918/1919 flu pandemic has died of Covid-19:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-aged-108

Also dead: one of the writers of the song I love Rock'n'Roll:

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-52089768

now, instead of splashing vodka on your hands, vodka and whisky distilleries are making proper hand sanitizer:

I am going to try to get a bottle when I can get down to the nearest place that's doing it, but I dont know if they are going to have just as many supply issues as the traditional outlets like Walgreens given the demand. They are selling it for such a low price ... only $3 for one bottle ... that it leads me to believe that they're deliberately *not* trying to make money off this crisis, and hope that the people who show up to just get hand sanitizer might think highly of them and end up buying liquor from them when happier times return.

image

I'll post a picture of the bottle if it looks interesting.

Ya I had heard of this. Adapt or go extinct i guess.