Elections in various countries

[malloc]

Albertans take great pride in having eliminated rats from their province, but it seems they've overlooked the ones nesting in the provincial legislative assembly.

[Ares Land]

What does everyone think of the Alberta independence referendum and its chances of passing? I believe someone already expressed their skepticism and said the Alberta independence movement lacks majority support. Nonetheless people once said the same thing about Brexit and Trump and so much else. The fact that they are even trying suggests that they have good reason to expect that it will pass.

The question might not be whether it passes (which seems unlikely, though of course one never knows) or not.
The idea is probably to get media attention for the separatists and garner support for the rest of their agenda. If the proposal doesn't pass but gets a good score anyway, this might get them leverage in negotiations with the federal government.

[Raphael]

If the proposal doesn't pass but gets a good score anyway, this might get them leverage in negotiations with the federal government.

Or help them prepare the ground for trying again in a while.

[WeepingElf]

Don’t underestimate the ability of humans to expend staggering amounts of time and effort in hopeless causes.

Exactly. If you've ever seen an interview at a parliamentary election where the candidate is bullishly confident of winning the seat when clearly they have no hope - e.g. a Conservative and Onionist in central Glasgow - you'll know exactly what bradrn means.

‘Onionist’?

The full name of the UK Conservatives is Conservative and Unionist Party, and it is this Unionist which is satirized as Onionist.

[Ares Land]

The sweet irony of Paul Krugman turning into a Very Serious Person: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what ... ith-france

It's interesting that the article starts out by correctly pointing the fallacy of ideologically motivated reasoning when it comes to discussing France, and then falling into the same error.

My own take (if you're interested!): I've heard right-wingers predict bankruptcy ever since I can vote (and I've been of voting age for what turns out to be a surprisingly long time). So I have trouble taking such warnings seriously.

I don't think the issue is retirement age. The real problem is having an undead government with no parliamentary majority, which needs no serious decisions can be made. I'd point out that there are worse things than Macron not having a majority though - (such as, Macron having a majority *shudder*)

Another issue is that France has been stuck in a state of 1932 Weimar Republic for more than ten years now (though without the paramilitary groups running around, thankfully.)

[Raphael]

My own take (if you're interested!): I've heard right-wingers predict bankruptcy ever since I can vote (and I've been of voting age for what turns out to be a surprisingly long time). So I have trouble taking such warnings seriously.

For most of that time, the West was a lot more clearly on top of the world than now. Easier to borrow money if you're one of the people on top.

[Ares Land]

My own take (if you're interested!): I've heard right-wingers predict bankruptcy ever since I can vote (and I've been of voting age for what turns out to be a surprisingly long time). So I have trouble taking such warnings seriously.

For most of that time, the West was a lot more clearly on top of the world than now. Easier to borrow money if you're one of the people on top.

I'd object that I'm not that old

[Raphael]

I'd object that I'm not that old

The decline of Western power and status, no matter how long it might have been going on, only started getting seriously noticed a few years ago.

[Ares Land]

I'd object that I'm not that old

The decline of Western power and status, no matter how long it might have been going on, only started getting seriously noticed a few years ago.

Oh, do you think so? I think people were already worried about China ten or fifteen years ago. But maybe I misremember. I'm pretty sure I heard similar arguments to yours during the Euro crisis though.

FWIW another reason I don't really believe in the bankruptcy threat is that the economy is still running, as a wealthy Western country; the machinery of government (collecting taxes, the works) is also still running. Financial markets react to the political uncertainty (there's also the energy crisis) as a factor, which means raising interest rates -- pretty bad of course, but Krugman's nightmare scenario is exaggerated.

[lëtzeshark]

The question might not be whether it passes (which seems unlikely, though of course one never knows) or not.
The idea is probably to get media attention for the separatists and garner support for the rest of their agenda. If the proposal doesn't pass but gets a good score anyway, this might get them leverage in negotiations with the federal government.

Also, the question is not like the Brexit referendum: the question is strangely worded, indeed, but it basically is asking "should there, at a later date, be a binding vote on independence", so it wouldn't be a done deal if the vote were to go that way. And while quite a number of the referenda are looking to be approved, opinion polling shows a quite wide gulf between the "remain" and "start the process of an independence referendum" positions. Of course, turnout will be important here, but given the wide difference in polling...

In other things related to Canada, though, Québec had their National Assembly election last week with interesting results: the Parti Québecois (the main party agitating for Québec independence) got a plurality of seats (59/127) while the party of the incumbent government (the Coalition Avenir Québec) went fron 79 seats to a nice, round zero. The PQ does want an independence referendum within their term of government (but after January 2029 because of certain things to their south) along with other things, but, without a majority government, who knows what all they can accomplish and how cooperative the other parties will be in helping with their goals.