Elections in various countries

[Vijay]

Omg! There's good political news coming out of the Maldives? Yay!

[Acid Badger]

Also, in other fun election things, on that same day, Bavaria will have their state elections for their Landtag. The CSU (the CDU's sister party that only runs in Bavaria) has been dominant in Bavarian politics since the formation of the Federal Republic, but polling shows them at 35% support compared to 48% at the previous election... the more troubling thing is that they've expressed a willingness to, if need be, coalition with the AfD, something the CDU/Angela Merkel vehemently opposed on the Federal level. On a Federal level, with the ongoing kerfuffle between Merkel and Horst Seehofer (CSU leader), if the CSU's support tanks like predicted, then the cabinet dynamics could become quite... interesting, to say the least.

The CSU is past that now as all their attempts to cater to voters lost to the AfD have proven to be futile. What they managed to do is driving even more people away from the party, and as of recently, The Greens surpassed the AfD as runner-up. After the quarrels between the two Union parties and recent neonazi scandals, the CSU completely changed tone, the Former Minister-President of Bavaria now Federal Minister of the Interior called the AfD staatszersetzend ("state corrosive/subversive") and the party announced they're taking him to court over it. It seems like the CSU leaders realized creating a new controversy every week won't get them their votes back and are now trying to repent.

Now next year is going to be interesting. In early September, there will be state elections in Saxony, where the AfD is notoriously strong and the governing CDU notoriously more on the right than their federal counterpart, argueing for a coalition between the two parties. Then, the Thuringian state elections will be held in late October. The AfD has established the Thuringian Eichsfeld region as their minature Capital of the Movement but The Left is doing equally well there. The state is currently ruled by a coalition of The Left, SPD and The Greens but with the SPD continuing to reach new record lows everywhere and The Greens never having been a strong party there, that coalition is standing on shaky grounds. A coalition of the CDU and The Left would likely have a majority in the parliament too, but is of course out of the question.

[Linguoboy]

Omg! There's good political news coming out of the Maldives? Yay!

I was really surprised--almost shocked, in fact--to see that.

[Salmoneus]

We should probably mention that Brazil is about to return to dictatorship.

Sure, Jair Bolsonaro is not, to my knowledge, officially running on an anti-democracy platform. But he has in the past promised that if he were ever elected, he would immediately dismiss the legislature and rule as a sole dictator ("I have no doubts - I would begin the coup on the very first day!"). If that does happen, he's made his views on the mistakes of former dictators plain: he's applauded the widespread use of torture against civilians (when he voted to impeach Rousseff, he dedicated the vote to the man who lead the junta's expert torture regiment, who tortured Rousseff), and condemned the military dictatorship for failing to murder people. He's applauded Pinochet, but, again, condemned him for only having murdered 3,000 people - if he were made President, he says, he'd kill far more people. He previously called for prior Presidents to be murdered, and for a military coup, saying "let's make this a dictatorship", and that voting has no role in Brazil's future, but that instead the best future would be one that allowed a period of refreshing civil war, and mass public executions.

Lest it appear that this is all stuff he said long ago, in this very campaign he's called for all members of the rival party to be rounded up and shot. His VP candidate, a general, has used slogans such as "we're the violence professionals" and "heroes kill", and has said that their government would launch a coup if there seemed to be a 'situation of anarchy'. He's also commented that there should be a new constitution, and that it would be a mistake to allow elected officials (other than him) any role in that constitution.


Aside from mass killings, Bolsonaro and friends have a wide range of policies. The poor will be sterilised, and something will be done about single mothers (or "drug trafficker factories" as he calls them) and homosexuality will be eliminated - it's for their own good, as "most homosexuals are murdered by their pimps" anyway - indeed, the majority of gay people, he says, die in drug-dens or brothels. Physical violence is the cure for homosexuality - good citizens, if they see two men kissing in the street, should grab then and beat them up, to beat the gay out of them. If he had a child who started being gay, he'd whip them until they were straight, but that would never happen, because his children have had a good education (gayness is caused by a lack of education, a lack of beatings, the global UN conspiracy to spread gay, and working (i.e. drug-taking) mothers). If for some reason a son of his was gay somehow, despite the beatings, then obviously he'd pray for them to die a horrible mangled death in a flaming plane crash, because otherwise they'd reduce the market value of his house. He's worried that the conspiracy is trying to "stimulate homosexuality" in six-year-olds, and feels that only encouraging hate crimes against gay people can save the children.

[some studies have shown that around half of all anti-LGBT violence in the world takes place in Brazil, though I suspect this is more a reflection of the level of reporting in some other countries]

Similarly, he's reassured that his children are too well-educated to consider dating a black person - which Bolsonaro describes as "promiscuity".

Women being less valuable, they will be paid less in the new Brazil, which will also stop them working (helping to defuse the gay crisis). Ideally, women will be eliminated altogether. He himself has worked hard to make sure he had no daughters - the sex of children is dependent on the moral virtue and willpower of the father, and he's proud of succesfully producing four sons, though he admits that he did once have a "moment of weakness" that permitted the conception of one daughter. He was probably thinking about gay or something, I guess. He's previously been convicted of inciting rape, though his actual remark specified that he wouldn't actually rape the MP of an opposing party, as she wasn't pretty enough - he helped publicise the incident, because he says it's important to "put women in their place". Oddly, he polls poorly among female voters - only 1 in 5 women want him to be President. In foreign policy, he would take a hard line against the global African conspiracy - black people he has said are the "scum of humanity", and would be banned from entering the country, though what he'd do about the existing population is unclear. He also wants to reclaim land from poor people and return it to the upper classes, privatise the government, ban abortion, re-introduce the death penalty, and encourage private gun ownership because there's only so much killing the government can do and it's going to need heroes from among the public to help out.



Bolsonaro is currently more than ten points clear in the first-round polls, and is projected to win the run-off.

[Raphael]

Which leads to the larger question: what to do about countries where most voters want a dictator? Accept the will of the voters, and you have a dictatorship; thwart the will of the voters, and you have a dictatorship, too.

[mèþru]

If the people want a dictatorship so badly, then democracy in that particular country is doomed anyway. Democracy must constantly be seen as worthwhile in order for it to work.

[Raphael]

Polls are now closed in the Bavarian state legislative election, and here's one of the exit poll based predictions:

CSU 35.5 percent; Greens 18.5 percent; Free Voters (independent, sort of anti-establishment) 11.5 percent; AfD 11 percent; SPD 10 percent; FDP 5 percent; The Left 3.5 percent (not in the legislature)


Note that the constitution of Bavaria mandates that the state legislature must elect a new prime minister within 29 days of the state legislative election.

[WeepingElf]

I consider a CSU/Free Voters coalition most likely. The CSU had stated before the election that they won't form a coalition with the far-right AfD, and if they broke that promise, the effect would be a nation-wide political earthquake with disastrous repercussions since such a coalition would break a taboo. Also, CSU and AfD disagree on too many key issues. Don't forget that the AfD wants an authoritarian government and to leave the EU. The FDP, if they are in at all, is too small to give a CSU/FDP coalition a majority in the Landtag, and of the remaining three parties, the Free Voters, themselves a center-right group, is politically closer to the CSU than the SPD or the Greens. (A coalition without the CSU is impossible because that would have to involve the AfD.)

[Raphael]

I consider a CSU/Free Voters coalition most likely. The CSU had stated before the election that they won't form a coalition with the far-right AfD, and if they broke that promise, the effect would be a nation-wide political earthquake with disastrous repercussions since such a coalition would break a taboo. Also, CSU and AfD disagree on too many key issues. Don't forget that the AfD wants an authoritarian government and to leave the EU. The FDP, if they are in at all, is too small to give a CSU/FDP coalition a majority in the Landtag, and of the remaining three parties, the Free Voters, themselves a center-right group, is politically closer to the CSU than the SPD or the Greens. (A coalition without the CSU is impossible because that would have to involve the AfD.)

Exactly.

[doctor shark]

Results are in from the Luxembourg election. (Voting happened today, and the final results have been published! Super-fast, though with less than 300K voters for the country...)
CSV (Christian Democrats): 21 seats (–2), swing of –5.35%
LSAP (Socialists): 10 seats (–3), swing of –2.68%
DP (Center-right): 12 seats (–1), swing of –1.36%
déi Gréng (Greens): 9 seats (+3), swing of +4.99%
ADR (Right): 4 seats (+1), swing of 1.64%
Pirates: 2 seats (+2), swing of +3.51%
déi Lénk (left): 2 seats (±0), swing of +0.54%

The outgoing coalition was LSAP-DP-Gréng, which did manage to keep the seats needed to be able to continue (31/60). My guess is that this is likely to be the case, especially with how much of a battering the CSV took (and especially with how they underperformed!), but we'll see in the coming days. Big winners were the Greens and the Pirates.

[mèþru]

Well the DP might decide that they want changes in the coalition or that the CSV is a better bet for getting ideologically goals

[Raphael]

Ok, update from yesterday on the Bavarian election: The Provisional Final Result (that is a thing in German elections, despite being, strictly speaking, a contradiction in terms) is:

CSU 37.2 percent; Greens 17.5 percent; Free Voters 11.6 percent; AfD 10.2 percent; SPD 9.7 percent; FDP 5.1 percent; The Left 3.2 percent (that is, below 5 percent and not in the legislature)

That is, of course, a result that few people would have predicted 5 or 10 years ago. The CSU, which used to have an outright majority in the Bavarian state legislature guaranteed, falling into the 30s! (Their attempt to keep voters tempted by the AfD failed (mostly), and seems to have driven some of their other voters over to the Greens.) The SPD, which used to have a second or first place in German elections guaranteed, in the single digits! (Their steady decline continues.)

But I guess eventually, there'll be a boring CSU/Free Voters coalition, and that'll be that.

[mèþru]

No chances for the Bavaria Party?

[mèþru]

What is their position on immigrants anyway? (the BP)

[Raphael]

No idea. Probably nothing good, though, given their conservative roots.

[MacAnDàil]

From the little I say of the Belgian local elections yet, it seems all three of the European elections yesterday were significant vote gains for the Greens so that's a good thing as far as I am concerned.

[Torco]

No Bolsonaro discussion yet? I mean, granted, it's yet another right wing fascistoid populist amongst a bit of a tidal wave of right wing populists, but Brazil is a pretty big deal.

[mèþru]

I swear I've talked about him a lot. I guess just not here. IMO he's worse than Trump and Kavanaugh rolled into one. I wished he died when I heard he got stabbed.

[Raphael]

No Bolsonaro discussion yet? I mean, granted, it's yet another right wing fascistoid populist amongst a bit of a tidal wave of right wing populists, but Brazil is a pretty big deal.

Hey, the longest post in this thread so far is about him! As for discussion, I guess the problem is coming up with new or interesting things to say, once you've explained who he is and what kinds of things he has said and done.

[Ares Land]

Which leads to the larger question: what to do about countries where most voters want a dictator? Accept the will of the voters, and you have a dictatorship; thwart the will of the voters, and you have a dictatorship, too.

Basically, I think we have, globally speaking, forgottent that the 'democracy' bit in 'liberal democracy' comes second.
An ideal political systems should preserve human rights, civil liberties enforce the rule of law. Proper check and balances should be in place to prevent abuses of power. The will of the voters is extremely important, sure, but only as a means to an end.

What populists are doing is, in a sense, gaming the system - what they're saying is, essentially: "we represent the will of the people, how dare you go against the people?". Not so. Sorry to put it that way, but when what the voters want is obviously stupid, screw the voters. Or, less crudely said, democracy doesn't mean dictatorship of the majority. We've been through this in the 1930s already. (I'm sure someone more knowledgeable about political science could put it more elegantly).

What to do then, when a country has elected a would be dictator? Well, not much, it's already too late. Cross fingers and hope the check and balances system is sufficiently solid. (From what I've read, there's some reason to hope this is the case in Brazil and Bolsonaro won't have free hands).

An another questions is what can be done before it's too late. And there I don't have any good answers. The FN/RN in France is an interesting case. They know they want an authoritarian regime, we know they want an authoritarian regime, but it can't be proven, so we have to let them hang around and pretty much fuck up every election. German voters, take note, you're in for 40+ years of the AfD hovering around 20%. But I digress.

Back to Bolsonaro, apparently, the Wall Street Journal endorses him: https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazilian- ... 1539039700
Apparently Haddad is taking hints "from the Hugo Chavez playbook"

Ah, if Venezuela didn't exist, we would have to invent it!