Zompist Bboard Again

I find it very interesting what people are buying here. I've seen pictures of row after row of totally empty shelves, but we don't have that here. The supermarket is full of food, it's just had a run on particular items:

chicken and beef, but not pork
pasta and rice, but leaving certain brands
toilet paper, except for the house brand
milk, but only dairy; sliced cheese; flour
cleaning products, including dishwasher detergent
bread, except in the bakery section

Some of this seems mildly irrational. Like, everyone decided they're going to finally do the dishes, and make chicken and beef recipes from scratch. But so far as I noticed, the soup and cereal and frozen dinner aisles are normal.

Slightly off-topic, but the reason why I was dismissed from my job last year was that I couldn't put in the hours they wanted, which in part was because they were too paranoid about security to let us work from home. I wonder what they're thinking now!

alice wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:16 pm Slightly off-topic, but the reason why I was dismissed from my job last year was that I couldn't put in the hours they wanted, which in part was because they were too paranoid about security to let us work from home. I wonder what they're thinking now!

That's terrible. It's amazing what a big difference there is between employers. Mine has always been pretty good about working from home. I normally work from home about one day a week on average. The VPN used to be a pain in the behind, but now we've migrated to Office 365 it's not really necessary for most things.

On the other hand, my experience of work with a certain public body is backward IT and insane restrictions (they couldn't even use most video-conferencing solutions because they were blocked by some outdated policy). God knows what the policy is in respect to document storage solutions accessible from off-site. I can't imagine any way for an office worker to work from home under those conditions.

Moose-tache wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:41 pm Raphael: no one who survives a bad flu ever takes disease lightly again. I once stayed perfectly still in bed for two full days because if I sat up to drink water I would vomit. Now I lean on the flu vaccine harder than the guy who cleans the public toilets at Varanasi. If enough rich elderly policy makers get sick, virus testing will become a sacred institution.

I hope you're right, but I have my doubts.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:09 pm

Ser wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:00 pm

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:51 amYou do all realize that, when this is all over, there will almost certainly be a lot of right-wingers who caught Covid-19, were among the high percentage of people who survived it and recovered, and got even more insufferable as a result, right?

Unfortunately, I have no idea what you mean. Why would they in particular get more insufferable?

Because they will think that the fact that they didn't die proves that they were right all along about not taking it seriously.

You realize that this is the best case scenario?

If everything goes really well-- and that's what we should be hoping for!-- then the virus spread will be slowed down, the health care system won't be overloaded, and the global economy won't tank.

And yeah, there's a political problem when disasters are consistently, competently avoided: people start thinking the anti-disaster measures are unnecessary, or that the problems they're intended to counter are not really so bad. That's one reason why things like world wars or plutocracy tend to recur as soon as the people who lived through the previous crisis all die off. This is also why I suggested, tongue in cheek, that in the Incatena near-disasters for the Agency were highly publicized, lest funding dry up.

I don't know how it's going in Germany, but I think we're going to wish, in this country, that things had been handled competently.

zompist wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:08 pm

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:09 pm

Ser wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:00 pm
Unfortunately, I have no idea what you mean. Why would they in particular get more insufferable?

Because they will think that the fact that they didn't die proves that they were right all along about not taking it seriously.

You realize that this is the best case scenario?

My impression is that even in a worst-case scenario, most of the people who got infected are predicted to survive.

If everything goes really well-- and that's what we should be hoping for!-- then the virus spread will be slowed down, the health care system won't be overloaded, and the global economy won't tank.

And yeah, there's a political problem when disasters are consistently, competently avoided: people start thinking the anti-disaster measures are unnecessary,

Yeah - I like to compare that particular attitude to an employee who says "right now I'm getting along really well with my boss, so I guess I can stop putting any effort into my work now". See, for instance, the right-wing argument that environmental protection rules are no longer needed because in some places that have had environmental protection rules for a while, the environment is now doing a bit better than it did when those environmental protection rules were first introduced.

or that the problems they're intended to counter are not really so bad. That's one reason why things like world wars or plutocracy tend to recur as soon as the people who lived through the previous crisis all die off.

There's some truth in that, but I'm not sure that it's completely true. For instance, I've got the impression that in the USA, support for Trump is to some extent highest among people who are old enough to remember the last global struggle against fascism.

That said, related to your point, I kind of wonder if part of the problem might be that most people in the richer parts of the world simply can't wrap their minds around the idea of a really all-encompassing disaster in their own part of the world. Their idea of disasters consists largely of 1) very serious disasters that hit only a few people at once, such as individual cases of illness, accidents, and death, 2) very serious disasters that hit really a lot of people at once somewhere else in the world and that you learn about from the news, such as wars and famines, 3) "moderately serious" disasters that hit a lot of people at home at once, but are usually mostly well-managed and not the end of the world, such as extreme weather events and earthquakes, and 4) "moderately serious" events that hit a lot of people at home at once, but gradually become routine and are still not the end of the world, such as economic downturns or drug abuse epidemics. Many people simply can't imagine 5) very serious disasters that might kill a lot of people at once at home.

I don't know how it's going in Germany, but I think we're going to wish, in this country, that things had been handled competently.

Well, at least no politicians with real power that I know of have called the whole thing a hoax. And there's apparently never been a shortage of tests so far. Aside from that, things could have been handled better. For instance, for a while, apparently local and state governments didn't want to do anything without Berlin telling them clearly what to do, and Berlin didn't want to give any instructions that might violate the prerogatives of local and state governments. And there seems to have been a bit of an attitude of "we'll watch and see what happens, and once there are a lot of cases, we'll start actually doing something".

Oh, I forgot to mention that I hope doctor shark's situation works out somehow.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:05 pm My impression is that even in a worst-case scenario, most of the people who got infected are predicted to survive.

I don't think you're quite grasping how bad this could get.

I wrote a blog post 5 days ago... then, there were 900 cases in the US. Today it's 3000.

At that time, Italy had 10,000 cases and 600 deaths. Today, 25,000 cases and 1800 deaths.

How long can these numbers triple every 5 days before it hits a million? About a month. About 10 days after that, we have more deaths than the US suffered in all of World War II.

And that doesn't affect conservatives any? When large numbers of their own side die off, including many of their leaders? (Politicians are not only likely to be old, but they are exposed to crowds constantly.)

It doesn't have to be that way. That's the whole idea of delaying the spread of the disease, isolating people. South Korea may have passed the peak-- because it is taking the virus seriously, testing the hell out of people, tracing contacts. Not enouraging people to spread the global pandemic to own the libs, like US conservatives.

There's some truth in that, but I'm not sure that it's completely true. For instance, I've got the impression that in the USA, support for Trump is to some extent highest among people who are old enough to remember the last global struggle against fascism.

Not really. My Dad fought in the war, and he was born in 1920. He'd be 100 today, but he's gone. If you were 90 today, you were nine years old when the war started. We're right on target for people to think fascism or world wars might not be so bad.

Well, at least no politicians with real power that I know of have called the whole thing a hoax. And there's apparently never been a shortage of tests so far. Aside from that, things could have been handled better. For instance, for a while, apparently local and state governments didn't want to do anything without Berlin telling them clearly what to do, and Berlin didn't want to give any instructions that might violate the prerogatives of local and state governments. And there seems to have been a bit of an attitude of "we'll watch and see what happens, and once there are a lot of cases, we'll start actually doing something".

Some Googling shows that you have nearly 6000 cases today-- twice the number here.

The counter-intuitive thing about this sort of crisis: the time is to act is when it seems (to laymen) that it's way too early.

The funny thing is that over here the far right, Trumpians and assorted fascists have been in full-panic mode for weeks. I've been adding up all the rumors they've been spreading. So, apparently, the virus will aparently make you drop 15 IQ points and make you sterile. Then it'll kill you. Then it ressuscitates you just to kill you again.

Anyway, and more seriously, I believe some of the reactions may be explained by statistics; for most people, it's going to be a mildly annoying cold, and yet it's likely the death rate will be extremely high when all is said and done. That's fairly easy to understand on a rational level, but hard to really comprehend emotionally, I think.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:38 pm Oh, I forgot to mention that I hope doctor shark's situation works out somehow.

Oh, and so do I!
And I'll add that I hope that things work out all right for all of you.

The one piece of advice that I think you may not have heard is to avoid Ibuprofen, and NSAIDS in general. Stick to paracetamol / acetaminophen. Ibuprofen is known to make things worse with viral infection, and apparently it could be particularly dramatic with COVID-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -infection

Ars Lande wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:05 pm The funny thing is that over here the far right, Trumpians and assorted fascists have been in full-panic mode for weeks. I've been adding up all the rumors they've been spreading. So, apparently, the virus will aparently make you drop 15 IQ points and make you sterile. Then it'll kill you. Then it ressuscitates you just to kill you again.

As I mentioned a while ago over in the US Politics Thread, I was honestly surprised that Trump didn't go down that path himself, at least not at first.

The one piece of advice that I think you may not have heard is to avoid Ibuprofen, and NSAIDS in general. Stick to paracetamol / acetaminophen. Ibuprofen is known to make things worse with viral infection, and apparently it could be particularly dramatic with COVID-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -infection

Oh, thank you, I didn't know that! Kinda sucks, though - I've heard that paracetamol is more likely to be addictive than ibuprofen.

Ars Lande wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:05 pm The one piece of advice that I think you may not have heard is to avoid Ibuprofen, and NSAIDS in general. Stick to paracetamol / acetaminophen. Ibuprofen is known to make things worse with viral infection, and apparently it could be particularly dramatic with COVID-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -infection

I showed my wife this same article earlier because ibuprofen is her go-to painkiller. It's funny because she's been struggling to buy any at all with all the hoarding going on, but the people hoarding it may now have buyer's remorse.

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:15 pm Oh, thank you, I didn't know that! Kinda sucks, though - I've heard that paracetamol is more likely to be addictive than ibuprofen.

Really? I can't say I've ever had any longings for more after using it. Although that's probably mostly because it's pretty useless as a painkiller compared to ibuprofen, so I normally choose nothing if my only available option is paracetamol. Ibuprofen is much more effective for pain relief.

I'm really grateful to the doctor who mentioned that when I had the flu (or WAS IT??(*)) a few weeks ago. It's a bit of a bummer since paracetamol doesn't do much for me, while ibuprofen is very effective, but there you go.
My layman's understanding is that ibuprofen, as an anti-inflammatory, suppresses inflammation. Which is exactly what you want if you got migraine or back pain, but is extremely dangerous with viral infection, since inflammation is your body's only way to get rid of, or contain the virus.

Re: addiction, I think I heard that about long-term use of paracetamol too. But AFAIK the current medical advice is to go easy on all painkillers, generally and to seek a doctor's opinion for any kind of long-lasting pain.

(*) I'm kind of hoping that weird, really nasty cold/flu... thing everyone in my family caught in February was COVID-19.

I had to look this up, but paracetamol is what we call acetaminophen in the US...

zompist wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:43 pmThe counter-intuitive thing about this sort of crisis: the time is to act is when it seems (to laymen) that it's way too early.

A friend of mine just pointed out that the Governor of Illinois is “lying” when he says restaurants and bars will closed for only two weeks. And I want to say, “No duh”. He’s dealing with a population still largely in denial. (Thousands of people went out partying in Chicago this weekend because *they* don’t feel sick yet.) Shutting everything down for the two months (minimum) experts think it will take for us to pass the peak is hard sell. He’s counting on it be so bad by April 1st that renewing the lockdown will be accepted without a whimper.

zompist wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:36 pm I had to look this up, but paracetamol is what we call acetaminophen in the US...

Yep, that took a bit for me to get used to. Though my go-to painkiller is naproxen.

Ars Lande wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:05 pm

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:38 pm Oh, I forgot to mention that I hope doctor shark's situation works out somehow.

Oh, and so do I!
And I'll add that I hope that things work out all right for all of you.

Thanks! I'm thinking they might, as the borders haven't closed to Belgium/the Netherlands, but I need to start looking around and making contingency plans. I did write to Immigration on Friday, so hopefully I'll hear soon what the situation about my carte de séjour is and if the fact that I have a provisional approval for the Netherlands helps me stay in legal status. (If, of course, the immigration office is staffed...)

The other downside is that all of the farewell events I was planning are now cancelled, so I probably won't see a good number of my friends and coworkers again before I leave. Somewhat sad.

Someone from Ireland reports: "Ireland is closing the pubs. It's definitely The Apocalypse."

Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:05 pm

If everything goes really well-- and that's what we should be hoping for!-- then the virus spread will be slowed down, the health care system won't be overloaded, and the global economy won't tank.

And yeah, there's a political problem when disasters are consistently, competently avoided: people start thinking the anti-disaster measures are unnecessary,

Yeah - I like to compare that particular attitude to an employee who says "right now I'm getting along really well with my boss, so I guess I can stop putting any effort into my work now". See, for instance, the right-wing argument that environmental protection rules are no longer needed because in some places that have had environmental protection rules for a while, the environment is now doing a bit better than it did when those environmental protection rules were first introduced.

THat's why we should lift the ban on murder now the murder rate has gone, amirite?

Infections will likely explode in the US with the contrarian misinformation e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6Bv5t9vvLs

Currently there is an average daily increase of 32.2% in new cases in the US, since the beginning of the month. If that rate continues, there will be 157k cases by the end of the month in the States. That makes a death toll below four digits nearly impossible, and a death toll under five digits unlikely.

I don't think the Democrats will ever recover from a blunder like this, do you?

(barely a joke)

Ser wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:29 am Someone from Ireland reports: "Ireland is closing the pubs. It's definitely The Apocalypse."

Just in tine for St. Patty's...Satan has a sense of humor.