Re: British Politics Guide
Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:55 am
"If God put the English on an island, He must have had His reasons."
"If God put the English on an island, He must have had His reasons."
It's something to do with that old joke you see on Scottish tea-towels, where God endows Scotland with so many Wonderful Things that other countries start to complain, then He says "just wait till you see who I'm going to give them as neighbours".
Is any confidence vote within the Conservative party anonymous? And do you see how people vote in real time? If you all put your bits of paper into a box and only get the result at the end, I can imagine that an attempt to almost topple May could accidentally turn into an actual toppling of May...alynnidalar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:50 pm It occurs to me that it's in a lot of people's best interests to almost topple May (so you can distance yourself from her while blaming her for everything) but not actually topple her (because now you've got to replace her with someone who can do a better job, or else you look bad for getting rid of her). I can't imagine anyone actually wants her job right now, so it seems dangerous to get rid of her without actually having a better alternative waiting in the wings.
(on the other hand, isn't that what much of the Brexit mess has been? Getting rid of something without having anything better to offer!)
I hope so. I really don't want the disaster of a crash-out Brexit, but even I'm struggling to regard this as the lesser of two evils. The idea that we'd leave a tighter union which we can explicitly, voluntarily leave, reject an alternative ("Norway") which we could also voluntarily leave at some point in the future, in exchange for an agreement where in effect the EU, the block which already has most of the power in the relationship, has a permanent veto on where we go from here... this is the biggest polished turd ever produced in British politics. It really does do the complete opposite of "taking back control", which I thought was the only supposed upside of this mess. I'm not some kind of hardline nationalist, but if I were an MP I couldn't vote for this.Salmoneus wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:36 am - the ERG say they now have at least 84 Tory votes against the deal, which means that it's basically dead in the water - even if the government strings this out to the last moment and hopes that panic changes some of their mind, that seems an impossible obstacle to overcome.
When I say "almost topple", what I mean is "get really close to but never quite actually hold a vote on the subject". Just teeter on the edge awhile more.chris_notts wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:59 pmIs any confidence vote within the Conservative party anonymous? And do you see how people vote in real time? If you all put your bits of paper into a box and only get the result at the end, I can imagine that an attempt to almost topple May could accidentally turn into an actual toppling of May...alynnidalar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:50 pm It occurs to me that it's in a lot of people's best interests to almost topple May (so you can distance yourself from her while blaming her for everything) but not actually topple her (because now you've got to replace her with someone who can do a better job, or else you look bad for getting rid of her). I can't imagine anyone actually wants her job right now, so it seems dangerous to get rid of her without actually having a better alternative waiting in the wings.
(on the other hand, isn't that what much of the Brexit mess has been? Getting rid of something without having anything better to offer!)
No indeed. It's not the first time I've heard a variation on that theory. But I believe Brexit being cancelled is wishful thinking on the level of Trump being impeached.
If it's calendar years then they have an option about to expire. Better call it before it's too late...Salmoneus wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:30 am And yes, it's certainly possible the ERG are just tormenting May. For one thing, under tory rules, they're only allowed one VONC a year, so they may be saving it for her weakest moment. [I THINK that means no more VONC for twelve months; obviously if it's based on calendar years it's very different]
Sal thinks correctly; once there's a VonC, there can't be another for a year.chris_notts wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:19 pmIf it's calendar years then they have an option about to expire. Better call it before it's too late...Salmoneus wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:30 am And yes, it's certainly possible the ERG are just tormenting May. For one thing, under tory rules, they're only allowed one VONC a year, so they may be saving it for her weakest moment. [I THINK that means no more VONC for twelve months; obviously if it's based on calendar years it's very different]
Noise is, he's actually pretty good - everyone who knows him seems to have found him likeable and capable. Including, apparently, civil servants, who usually think ministers are useless.
Wouldn't a similar scenario to the Thatcher example apply if TM won the VONC, but a large minority voted against her? If it were 60% - 40% in her favour, for example, it would underline again how weak she is, even if no actual leadership contest takes place. She might be protected for a year as PM in theory, but she'd lose what little authority she had left (if in fact she still has any).Salmoneus wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:23 pm If she doesn't stand down, she'll probably win the VONC. If she loses, but no big name tries to challenge her? Interesting. There are two obvious Tory examples here...
...in 1989, Thatcher was challenged for the leadership by Sir Anthony Meyer, an unknown MP with unpopular ideas. He was the textbook stalking horse candidate - he originally believed he would challenge Thatcher, and then Thatcher's real rivals would join the contest. But the reaction to the challenge wasn't positive enough, so everyone else stayed out, and Meyer ended up a sacrifice - demonised in the press, deselected by his local party, and outed as having had a quarter-century-long affair with a younger woman. However, it was a disaster for Thatcher - only around 30 people voted for Meyer, but another 30 intentionally spoiled their ballots. This, given how ridiculous Meyer's challenge was, effectively signaled to everybody that Thatcher lacked complete support, and fired the starting gun on the campaign to remove her - she was deposed about a year later.
Sure, as in my scenario at the end there. But the flip side of that is that she already has no authority, and no way to resolve the dominant issue of the day, and probably no longer a majority in parliament - at this point, keeping the job for another year would be a big win for her. A year's a long time in politics!chris_notts wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:33 pmWouldn't a similar scenario to the Thatcher example apply if TM won the VONC, but a large minority voted against her? If it were 60% - 40% in her favour, for example, it would underline again how weak she is, even if no actual leadership contest takes place. She might be protected for a year as PM in theory, but she'd lose what little authority she had left (if in fact she still has any).Salmoneus wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:23 pm If she doesn't stand down, she'll probably win the VONC. If she loses, but no big name tries to challenge her? Interesting. There are two obvious Tory examples here...
...in 1989, Thatcher was challenged for the leadership by Sir Anthony Meyer, an unknown MP with unpopular ideas. He was the textbook stalking horse candidate - he originally believed he would challenge Thatcher, and then Thatcher's real rivals would join the contest. But the reaction to the challenge wasn't positive enough, so everyone else stayed out, and Meyer ended up a sacrifice - demonised in the press, deselected by his local party, and outed as having had a quarter-century-long affair with a younger woman. However, it was a disaster for Thatcher - only around 30 people voted for Meyer, but another 30 intentionally spoiled their ballots. This, given how ridiculous Meyer's challenge was, effectively signaled to everybody that Thatcher lacked complete support, and fired the starting gun on the campaign to remove her - she was deposed about a year later.
Even more fun would be if she won a Conservative VONC and then the government as a whole lost one in the Commons. The DUP breaking with the Conservatives could do this, of course, if they were willing to risk JC becoming PM. It'd be an interesting test of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. Presumably if there were an election, TM would still be in the driving seat regarding the manifesto, protected for a year from being deposed, which is exactly what none of the Tory grandees wanted after the fiasco last time. And if she wrote support for her deal into the manifesto, would her MPs then be forced to campaign for it?Salmoneus wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:47 pm Sure, as in my scenario at the end there. But the flip side of that is that she already has no authority, and no way to resolve the dominant issue of the day, and probably no longer a majority in parliament - at this point, keeping the job for another year would be a big win for her. A year's a long time in politics!
Basically, I think her position now is so weak that almost anything other than deposition is an improvement for her. Among the party, that is - she could of course still be removed in the House.
...oh good god. This could get SO ridiculous. It could be even worse, too - what if she loses the VONC, showing her MPs have no confidence in her, but then wins the party membership vote to remain leader, and then the MPs have to campaign for her to win the election? On a manifesto they don't support, having just gone on record as not supporting her?chris_notts wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:00 pmEven more fun would be if she won a Conservative VONC and then the government as a whole lost one in the Commons. The DUP breaking with the Conservatives could do this, of course, if they were willing to risk JC becoming PM. It'd be an interesting test of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. Presumably if there were an election, TM would still be in the driving seat regarding the manifesto, protected for a year from being deposed, which is exactly what none of the Tory grandees wanted after the fiasco last time. And if she wrote support for her deal into the manifesto, would her MPs then be forced to campaign for it?Salmoneus wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:47 pm Sure, as in my scenario at the end there. But the flip side of that is that she already has no authority, and no way to resolve the dominant issue of the day, and probably no longer a majority in parliament - at this point, keeping the job for another year would be a big win for her. A year's a long time in politics!
Basically, I think her position now is so weak that almost anything other than deposition is an improvement for her. Among the party, that is - she could of course still be removed in the House.
Under the FTPA, there are now three ways to call an election early:Another fun scenario would be if the Commons had a vote of no confidence in the PM (is this even possible anymore?). As far as I understand it, this would not trigger a GE under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, it would just be a way of blowing a big raspberry in her direction.