Zompist Bboard Again

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 10:21 am

zompist wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2024 2:41 amWhy would the Russians suddenly become competent?

Maybe because they suddenly get an influx of classified intel from someone who has shown complete disregard for guarding US military secrets

As many of us saw befall others in school, cheating does not create competency.

zompist wrote: ↑Sat Nov 09, 2024 2:41 am Why would the Russians suddenly become competent? Why would the Europeans suddenly kowtow to a US that rejects them?

Even taking Russian incompetence into account, the Ukrainians can't do much without Western help, specifically weapons and military supplies. That's something a Trump presidency may change.
As for Europeans, it's worth keeping in mind some EU leaders (Orban, Meloni) are more or less aligned with Trump/Putin. Germany is going to be busy with elections and coalition building; and more generally European is not necessarily doing too well at the moment.

There certainly is a possibility that Trump and Putin will be left alone to negotiate, and that'd be almost certainly bad news for Ukraine.

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 12:25 pm Incidentally, I don't understand the whole "city people vs country people" side conversation going on here. The US population is over 80% urban. A third of all rural residents voted for Harris; 40% of urbanites voted for Trump. Harris also lost the suburbs (albeit narrowly). It wasn't the urban/rural divide that decided the election. That hasn't been the case for decades and won't be the case for the foreseeable.

It might be cities vs. small towns, though. This gives the threshold at 5,000 which isn't much: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... tions.html (also, I'm really not familiar enough with the US to see how they define an 'area'. Is it a county? Town? Something else entirely?

Ares Land wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:32 am (also, I'm really not familiar enough with the US to see how they define an 'area'. Is it a county? Town? Something else entirely?

I think it's Census Office internal terminology, used to be able to compare areas in different states which might use different local government terminology.

rotting bones wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:12 pm

MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:23 am This is a problem with overly focusing on the economy. You may get a self-proclaimed greedy person (along with his other faults of course). Morality should trump the economy.

PS also overly focusing on immigration/people moving house across countries. It just plays into the xenophobes' hands.

No one is telling people to care about the economy. They just do. If they didn't, nature would select against their survival.

Why do you think that the non-economy-focussers would not survive? And that it would be appropriate to focus on that?

rotting bones wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:12 pm And if you tell them to care about morality, they will take it as carte blanche to commit genocide. Humanity doesn't agree with your idea of what it means to be moral. So much so that the economy is pretty much the only thing that could motivate people to support the left.

How would placing importance on morality lead to genocide, the opposite of morality? Why do you think that left could not be supported on a myriad of bases?

Raphael wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:46 am
I think it's Census Office internal terminology, used to be able to compare areas in different states which might use different local government terminology.

The Census Bureau divides the US into tiny areas called census blocks (apparently there are over 8,000,000 of them) and groups contiguous ones over a certain population density into urban areas. So they don't correspond to any level of local government; they're just statistical constructs.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 5:32 amIt might be cities vs. small towns, though. This gives the threshold at 5,000 which isn't much: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... tions.html (also, I'm really not familiar enough with the US to see how they define an 'area'. Is it a county? Town? Something else entirely?

But it's not. I just explained that according to exit polls, Trump got 51% of the suburban vote. The suburbs have been a major focus for recent political campaigns, with a swing of a few points among suburban white women sufficient to decide all manner of elections.

You didn't have to drive far from where I live to see Trump signs. Hell, you didn't even have to leave the city limits.

Similar here. Not with yard signs, as it's too built-up for yards where I live -- but, for a deep-blue city in a blue state, there's no shortage of stickering, bumperstickers, postering, etc., like you describe.

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:22 am I just explained that according to exit polls, Trump got 51% of the suburban vote. The suburbs have been a major focus for recent political campaigns, with a swing of a few points among suburban white women sufficient to decide all manner of elections.

Then again, arguably one main reason why swings of a few points among suburban white women are often sufficient to decide all manner of elections is that so many other voter groups, including rural and urban ones, go reliably to the one or other party.

yeah, i don't think the question is really "why did so many people go to trump", because they didn't. obviously the numbers aren't finalized yet but as of right now trump gained about a million voters over his popular vote count in 2020, while harris's count is 9 million shorter than biden's that same year. it's looking like voter turnout is millions lower than in 2020 as well. this wasn't so much a trump win as a harris loss. and anyone who's serious about wanting the democrats to win needs to go beyond "well voters are all just too stupid" and actually examine how and why the democrats whiffed this one so bad

Raphael wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 2:45 pmThen again, arguably one main reason why swings of a few points among suburban white women are often sufficient to decide all manner of elections is that so many other voter groups, including rural and urban ones, go reliably to the one or other party.

Or perhaps it's just a function of them being the largest single demographic bloc in the electorate. A huge swing in, say, inner-city Asian men, is hardly a blip on the national map.

whether its huge hyperbole or close to accurate, I heard an off-the-cuff estimate that 1/3 of the US voters simply didn't vote - some because they didn't like either canidate, others for other reasons.

Aside from my grief over the catastrophic future that awaits us, I am deeply furious at the American people for their shameful decision to reëlect possibly the worst candidate in US history. The first time around, I feel inclined to excuse as sheer dumb luck and technicalities, but this time they gave him an unambiguous majority. More than half of Americans lived through the disaster of COVID, watched him attempt a coup, and heard about his dozens of felony charges and convictions and still voted for him. Americans have revealed themselves as incorrigibly bigoted and stupid in equal measure.

malloc wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:11 pm Aside from my grief over the catastrophic future that awaits us, I am deeply furious at the American people for their shameful decision to reëlect possibly the worst candidate in US history. The first time around, I feel inclined to excuse as sheer dumb luck and technicalities, but this time they gave him an unambiguous majority. More than half of Americans lived through the disaster of COVID, watched him attempt a coup, and heard about his dozens of felony charges and convictions and still voted for him. Americans have revealed themselves as incorrigibly bigoted and stupid in equal measure.

I read that in Trump's voice. "We have the best bigots!"

Incorrigible Bigotry, by the way, is the name of a 2002 death metal album by, coincidentally, a group of incorrigible bigots.

keenir wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 10:52 pmwhether its huge hyperbole or close to accurate, I heard an off-the-cuff estimate that 1/3 of the US voters simply didn't vote - some because they didn't like either canidate, others for other reasons.

With few uncounted votes still outstanding, University of Florida's election lab currently has 63.58% for the overall turnout rate. 66.4% was the turnout rate for the last election.

I haven't yet seen a breakdown of the chief reasons why people stayed home. Apparently the turnout in some swing states actually increased. (These were also where Harris concentrated her efforts given the tight schedule and where she actually had tighter margins than in the country as a whole.)

malloc wrote: ↑Wed Nov 13, 2024 11:11 pmMore than half of Americans lived through the disaster of COVID, watched him attempt a coup, and heard about his dozens of felony charges and convictions and still voted for him. Americans have revealed themselves as incorrigibly bigoted and stupid in equal measure.

No, 22.6% of USAmericans voted for him. Most Americans voted for nobody at all.

Maybe I'm being naïve, but I think that the "incorrigibly bigoted" are a minority in this country. (On my most optimistic days, I would say probably less than 30%.) I know that's kind of cold comfort when there's clearly a substantial number in addition who are willing to overlook bigotry for various reasons, but what it tells me is that this result was by no means inevitable and doesn't necessarily indicate a change for the worse in the character of USAmericans.

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 14, 2024 11:56 amNo, 22.6% of USAmericans voted for him. Most Americans voted for nobody at all.

Sure but much of the 77.4% that didn't vote for him includes children and other people ineligible to vote. It also includes people who couldn't bother to vote and clearly didn't find the Trump agenda bothersome enough to oppose it. Looking at it another way, only 20% of Americans overtly rejected Trump and his policies.

AOC has a good point that 1° most people are too busy with work, childcare and more to pay much attention to the news and 2° are overwhelmed by data. Hence some people asking her the following day "Is he really going to do that?".

One antidote to this is knowledge of what constitutes a reliable source and just focussing a few of the best of those. That would require the opposite of Trump's dismantling of the education department.

Back to the topic of the urban-rural divide, I have a possibly interesting anecdote. About a month before the election, I spent a few days in the small rural town of Morrison, Illinois (population 4,000). Inside the town, there were noticeably more Harris-Walz signs on people's lawns than Trump-Vance ones. But outside the city limits I don't remember seeing any Harris-Walz signs, while there were still plenty of Trump ones along the roads. That suggests that there isn't that much of a divide between small towns and larger cities, but the actual countryside overwhelmingly supported Trump. But of course this is just an anecdote, and signs might not be the same as how people actually ended up voting.

So one part of is that every country voting in 2024 has rejected their current governments because of inflation due to Putin and megacorps. What if Putin did it deliberately?

MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2024 8:32 am So one part of is that every country voting in 2024 has rejected their current governments because of inflation due to Putin and megacorps. What if Putin did it deliberately?

Possible, but on balance, I don't think he intended for the Ukraine War to take so long. He intended it to be over in a few days.