United States Politics Thread 47

[jcb]

Prediction: in ten years, everyone'll have forgotten Trump and all bad consequences from his terms will be blamed on the Democrats.

That's how they win. All good things during a Democratic term are actually because of a previous Republican term and all bad things during a Republican term are because of a previous Democratic term.

And the American population is braindead fucking stupid enough to fall for it every time. Low-information ass voters.

This is a symptom of a lack of trust in Dems. Most voters are "low-information". Dems just need to get over it. You're not going to educate your way out of this problem. Dems should embrace it and just start saying shit. After all, Trump says shit all the time, doesn't deliver, and they still vote for him anyways. More importantly, Dems need to rebuild links with the working class to build trust and convince them that they care.

[jcb]

I remember how unbeatable George W. Bush and his brand of politics appeared between 2001 and 2005. Now neoconservatism is basically a spent force. (OK, people like Glenn Greenwald might claim that neoconservatives run the Democratic Party these days, but that is, of course, nonsense.)

Not just him; if you had to rely from post-2012 sources alone, I wouldn't blame you for thinking George W. Bush was a Democrat

Prediction: in ten years, everyone'll have forgotten Trump and all bad consequences from his terms will be blamed on the Democrats.

(1) But what about all the shittiness of the lives of people that have to live through those years?
(2) If/When Trump eventually leaves office or dies, why would the Repubs stop doing Trumpism? After all, Trump has delivered things (unprotecting abortion, tax cuts, and now undoing birth-right citizenship) that the right has wanted for decades. It's just going to be continued by a new generation (DeSantis, Vance) of Repubs until Dems find an answer for it.
(3) I do think that there will be elections. Trump loves campaigning too much to do away with them.
(4) What makes you think that Trump(ism) will step down in 4 years (assuming they lose the election)? Trump has said repeatedly that he wants to be president for more than 2 terms. Trump is speeding America towards a constitutional crisis ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHjAYN0e1PI ), and if the police decide to listen to Trump instead of the courts, the only thing stopping a total Trump takeover is the military. How confident are you that the military will disobey him?

[keenir]

because thats too long-term for pretty much any of them; easier to just take liberals' money now.

Right now they are flooding social media with fascist propaganda and rapidly pushing people there rightward. Regardless of what you may think, Elon Musk doesn't seem terribly worried about liberals boycotting twitter and losing their money.

I don't think he'd be worried by anything; he's literally seen his rockets blow up in the atmosphere, and he says its a cool thing to see.

I said static, because you said static. The fact that different Soviet leaders have done different things internally and externally - and have been open to different diplomatic tactics - argues against a static nation over even 70 years...which is less than the century you initially argued for.

Obviously I was speaking metaphorically.

suddenly its metaphor when we disprove your claim.

Yes all dictatorships undergo superficial changes throughout their existence but that hardly changes their basic nature.

their basic nature? being run by humans?

or is it "superficial" to see the differences between the Soviet leader who allied with both Hitler & Churchill, and the Soviet leader who, to paraphrase a US President, "took down this wall" ?

People are trying to comfort me with the conclusion that MAGA will eventually collapse, whereas I am making the point that eventual collapse means little on the scale of human lifetimes.

I know a large number of people who were born before Stalin took power, so even that statement of yours, is hollow. Also, look at all the nations and governments who lasted less than a decade or two. (how long did Japan's WW2 'junta' last, when they decided to kill their Emperor? or Tito, who earned praise from both the Soviets and the British & Americans)

The idea that Trump will somehow set up a dictatorship that will last decades is an extraordinary claim, which requires extraordinary evidence.

There just isn't any evidence that he or Musk or Vance or whatever have the means to set up that sort of thing; or even that they'd get any kind of support trying to set this up; besides, do they even want that?

They have the entire federal government under their control,

...except for the parts that keep telling them No.

also, you didn't answer the "do they even want that?"

not only the executive branch but congress and the supreme court. Major corporations are rapidly embracing their policies from ditching DEI to renaming the Gulf of Mexico on digital maps.

probably because it literally costs nothing to change something on a digital map...just like it costs nothing to have more than one username in a public forum.

Even public opinion is broadly onboard, unlike last time when Trump faced widespread disapproval. There simply aren't any institutions left willing or able to oppose the MAGA regime, let alone the broad majority needed to stop them.

...except for all the ones we keep telling you about.

[keenir]

(4) What makes you think that Trump(ism) will step down in 4 years (assuming they lose the election)? Trump has said repeatedly that he wants to be president for more than 2 terms.

according to Trump himself, he's already a 3-term President...so any Republican attempt to make three-terms legal again (after FDR, after all), ends here.

[malloc]

suddenly its metaphor when we disprove your claim.

It always was. Surely you didn't think I was claiming all dictatorships were literally frozen (perhaps with actual ice?) in time. I clearly meant that from the standpoint of mortal humans, they often feel eternal.

I know a large number of people who were born before Stalin took power, so even that statement of yours, is hollow.

Unless you work in a nursing home, that seems incredibly unlikely. Anyone born before Stalin took power would be over a hundred years old by now.

Also, look at all the nations and governments who lasted less than a decade or two. (how long did Japan's WW2 'junta' last, when they decided to kill their Emperor? or Tito, who earned praise from both the Soviets and the British & Americans)

Tito spent thirty-five years in power. He was hardly an ephemeral leader as you seem to imply.

[keenir]

Surely you didn't think I was claiming all dictatorships were literally frozen

Its hard to tell.

(perhaps with actual ice?) in time. I clearly meant that from the standpoint of mortal humans, they often feel eternal.

also No. again, if there was no change (beyond window dressing) in a government from one leader to another, there would be no point in diplomats outwaiting a recalitrant ruler.

I know a large number of people who were born before Stalin took power, so even that statement of yours, is hollow.

Unless you work in a nursing home, that seems incredibly unlikely. Anyone born before Stalin took power would be over a hundred years old by now.

I know =/= I work alongside/with

Also, look at all the nations and governments who lasted less than a decade or two. (how long did Japan's WW2 'junta' last, when they decided to kill their Emperor? or Tito, who earned praise from both the Soviets and the British & Americans)

Tito spent thirty-five years in power. He was hardly an ephemeral leader as you seem to imply.

I never said he was ephemeral -- I said that he was an example of a leader whose personal power (or even his government) lasted for a century or more (or even 70 years)

heck, I believe it was Michigan which had its own independent theocratic nation for a while...if you don't consider that to be ephemeral, I'm going to need a definition so we can be on the same page.

[malloc]

Fine, there are dictatorships that last decades or more and dictatorships that crumble within years. Currently the MAGA regime has everything it needs to last indefinitely. Everything from corporations to mass media has already folded and endorsed the new regime. Billionaire backers like Elon Musk have lent it an unfathomably large war chest. Its propaganda machine is both incredibly sophisticated and well-funded with all the largest social media platforms and podcasters under its control. If all else fails, it has the world's strongest military, millions of police officers, and tens of millions of heavily armed true believers to crush any revolt. Consider how Putin has enjoyed 80% approval in Russia for decades despite all his terrible crimes and even setbacks in the ongoing invasion. That is what we can expect from the MAGA regime.

[keenir]

Fine, there are dictatorships that last decades or more and dictatorships that crumble within years. Currently the MAGA regime has everything it needs to last indefinitely.

oh for bleeps sake. they have everything except anything of note or worth.

why do you not like to listen to anyone who isn't doomsaying?

(though I'd wager that there were a number of "crumble within years" who were also thought to be equipped with "everything it needs to last indefinitely"...

Everything from corporations to mass media has already folded and endorsed the new regime.

folded? endorsed?

Billionaire backers like Elon Musk have lent it an unfathomably large war chest.

*snerk*
oh good, Musk can pay America's deficit.

pft, if Ross Perot couldn't do that, Musk has no chance.

Its propaganda machine is both incredibly sophisticated

yyyyeah, propaganda that keeps running itself over.

and well-funded with all the largest social media platforms and podcasters under its control.

saying "I'm not going to make trouble" is not the same as "I'm going to mindlessly obey"

If all else fails, it has the world's strongest military,

...with a healthy tradition of refusing to obey unlawful orders.

millions of police officers, and tens of millions of heavily armed true believers to crush any revolt.

tens of millions?? you do realize that million is more than a thousand, right?

That is what we can expect from the MAGA regime.

Do you want us to pat you on the head and say "oh sure, you're absolutely right, and there is no point in resisting Trump's evil rule - may as well put on our brown shirts and crack some skulls where Trump tells us to" ?

[rotting bones]

But politics is really like a giant pendulum, and you know, Trump and associates are pulling it as hard and as fast as they can in one direction.

I wouldn't describe it as a pendulum. It's closer to randomness. The kids will not care what crazy old people did back in the day.

Note that by "reset", I don't mean the old policies will necessarily come back. Trump's policies will be trampled over by new circumstances like he did with the US constitution.

[rotting bones]

Obviously I was speaking metaphorically. Yes all dictatorships undergo superficial changes throughout their existence but that hardly changes their basic nature. People are trying to comfort me with the conclusion that MAGA will eventually collapse, whereas I am making the point that eventual collapse means little on the scale of human lifetimes.

Trumpists will be here for a long time. That doesn't mean they will win elections.

Trumpists want to freeze a moment in history that was an outcome of systemic forces. Since it is physically impossible to do this, they are dissipating their energy. That's why they will soon be irrelevant.

My main point is: Why add to the suffering?

It might not look that way, but there are limits to human stupidity. People did blame Trump for Covid. Try to pick a candidate who serves as a good outlet for people's hysteria and hope for the best.

[rotting bones]

It is strange, yes, but that’s just how borrowings work. They don’t always refer to the same thing that they did in the source language. In this case, ‘religion’ has been thoroughly nativised and I would indeed argue that its meaning has changed substantially.

There is an element of choice in the terminology we use. I don't think it's illegitimate to describe the performance of rites as "religion" and Christology as "faith" if you alert the reader and do it consistently.

[jcb]

Consider how Putin has enjoyed 80% approval in Russia for decades despite all his terrible crimes and even setbacks in the ongoing invasion. That is what we can expect from the MAGA regime.

Why do you believe this? In Russia, answering a poll "wrong" can land you in prison. Therefore, many people that think "wrong" simply decline to answer such polls instead.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uQCNjIHeqU

[keenir]

hopefully someone can explain this: what does "I'm asperationally funny" mean?

{if it helps, Musk said that}

[malloc]

Why do you believe this? In Russia, answering a poll "wrong" can land you in prison. Therefore, many people that think "wrong" simply decline to answer such polls instead.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uQCNjIHeqU

It seems plausible that the vast majority support Putin and the war simply because Russian propaganda is so overwhelming and extreme. When literally everything people there see and read sends the same message, most will naturally accept it.

[rotting bones]

It seems plausible that the vast majority support Putin and the war simply because Russian propaganda is so overwhelming and extreme. When literally everything people there see and read sends the same message, most will naturally accept it.

It's economically inefficient for Russia, with its population, to hold on to Siberia and the Far East. But Russians think it's vital for their national security that they do this. Historically, the most devastating invasions of Mongols, Tatars and the Japanese came from the East. Even today, China and Alaska are directly to the East. Only a dictator can bully individual interests into this multigenerational national security project. Since Russia has always been a dictatorship for geopolitical reasons, most Russians don't see a realistic alternative to going along with whatever the latest madman wants.

[rotting bones]

hopefully someone can explain this: what does "I'm asperationally funny" mean?

{if it helps, Musk said that}

"I'm a wannabe comedian"?

[Ares Land]

(1) But what about all the shittiness of the lives of people that have to live through those years?

It's sad and disgusting, yes, and for plenty of people it'll be awful; there's no denying that. My point is rather that this won't last forever.

(2) If/When Trump eventually leaves office or dies, why would the Repubs stop doing Trumpism? After all, Trump has delivered things (unprotecting abortion, tax cuts, and now undoing birth-right citizenship) that the right has wanted for decades. It's just going to be continued by a new generation (DeSantis, Vance) of Repubs until Dems find an answer for it.

I don't know about specific people and who will be around in 4 or 8 years, but of course there'll still be Republicans. They've always been pretty unattractive, even before Trump -- remember Bush? Newt Gingrich? The Tea Party? McCain was about the only one that sounded reasonable -- so yes, I expect they'll still be plenty nasty in ten years time.

(3) I do think that there will be elections. Trump loves campaigning too much to do away with them.
(4) What makes you think that Trump(ism) will step down in 4 years (assuming they lose the election)? Trump has said repeatedly that he wants to be president for more than 2 terms. Trump is speeding America towards a constitutional crisis ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHjAYN0e1PI ), and if the police decide to listen to Trump instead of the courts, the only thing stopping a total Trump takeover is the military. How confident are you that the military will disobey him?

Trump says a lot of things; it doesn't mean he can actually do them.
Trump wasn't happy about losing four years ago and January 6 was a disgrace. He did have to step down. I don't really see why that would change. The military leans Republican (as far as I know), that doesn't mean they're happy with Trump or that they'd be willing to instigate a coup.
I'm also pretty sure there'll be plenty of Republicans who won't be willing to risk their necks for the sake of an 82-year-old

More generally, it's important to recognize the harm Trump is doing; it's also important not to paint as worse than it already is.
In short: the next four years will hurt, badly, mostly for women, immigrants, Black people, LGBT+ folks; it's likely the economy will take a hit, and if there's any kind of crisis (like COVID last time or 9/11 under Bush), it'll be handled horribly; I also expect the worst for Gaza and Ukraine. That is bad enough.
On the other hand, It is extremely unlikely that Trump will start WWIII or establish a military dictatorship.

[Ares Land]

hopefully someone can explain this: what does "I'm asperationally funny" mean?

{if it helps, Musk said that}

No idea... Maybe inspirational? aspirational?

[rotting bones]

(2) If/When Trump eventually leaves office or dies, why would the Repubs stop doing Trumpism? After all, Trump has delivered things (unprotecting abortion, tax cuts, and now undoing birth-right citizenship) that the right has wanted for decades. It's just going to be continued by a new generation (DeSantis, Vance) of Repubs until Dems find an answer for it.

The other Trumpists are unpopular. Trump himself said there's no Trumpism without Trump. Americans want the cult leader, not pathetic cultists.

[rotting bones]

For me, a bigger worry than Russia is Milei's popularity after the way he governed.