German Politics Thread

[Raphael]

Well, that bunch is still xenophobic and pro-Putin, only with left-wing social and economic policies. Not really more appetizing than the AfD.

It's as if someone had set out to prove horseshoe theory right.

[WeepingElf]

Well, that bunch is still xenophobic and pro-Putin, only with left-wing social and economic policies. Not really more appetizing than the AfD.

It's as if someone had set out to prove horseshoe theory right.

Yes.

[Raphael]

Looks like early new elections. The coalition has finally failed. More when I get around to typing it.

[Raphael]

OK, since the 2021 election, Germany had been governed, at the federal level, by a Traffic Light Coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD, political color red), the Greens (political color, you guessed it, green), and the Free Democrats - continental European classical liberals, that is, basically a kind of watered-down libertarians - (FDP, political color yellow). You might have noticed that one of those three things is not really like the two others.

The coalition never really worked - it had only been agreed to because it was seen as the least bad of the mathematically possible options. Especially the FDP under the leadership of Finance Minister Christian Lindner had a habit of agreeing to compromises within the coalition and then, later, arguing publicly against the very compromises they had previously agreed to. The core voters of the SPD and the Greens were angry about the compromises these parties had agreed to with the FDP, and the FDP core voters were angry about the compromises that party had agreed to with the other two parties. Everyone was angry about inflation and Ukraine. All three parties saw their popularity collapse, both in polls and in state elections.

Lindner's latest public counter-proposal to policy plans he himself had already agreed to was too much for Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He fired Lindner. His plan is to pass a number of urgent bills, then follow procedures to dissolve the legislature early in January, and have new elections in March. I don't know if he will be able to do things that way.

[Ares Land]

Thanks for the heads up. I'll be following this with interest.

Is there any chance this slows down the rise of the AfD?

[Ares Land]

Oh, I hear apparently Scholz is talking about some sort of deal with the CDU to keep things going?

[Raphael]

Oh, I hear apparently Scholz is talking about some sort of deal with the CDU to keep things going?

Yeah, temporarily, so that the timetable I described above doesn't get rushed.

Is there any chance this slows down the rise of the AfD?

Not that I can see.

[Raphael]

Apparently opposition CDU leader Friedrich Merz wants to have the early election already in January. That probably means that it will be done that way.

[Raphael]

For the record, yesterday Chancellor Scholz lost the ceremonial motion of confidence, and now at some point the President is supposed to dissolve the legislature. He might go through the motions of talking to party leaders first.

[Raphael]

The German federal election is in two weeks, and the TV debate between the main two party leaders, Chancellor Scholz and opposition leader Merz, was today. From a politically progressive perspective, it was often depressing: much of the time, Merz basically accused Scholz of not being conservative enough, and Scholz basically replied "No, I am conservative enough, I promise". The only exceptions to that rule - the only points where Scholz unapologetically asserted a progressive position - were tax policy, the question of how many genders there are, and Trump's Gaza proposal.

[Ares Land]

Unpleasant news, especially since that tactic rarely works on the left, and I find the CDU worrying these days.

[Raphael]

Just got home from voting. Feeling pretty grim.

[Lērisama]

Just got home from voting. Feeling pretty grim.

Good luck,¹ I am hoping for the spontaneous combustion of the AfD for you².


¹ What even is the correct thing to say in this situation?
² And people more generally

[Raphael]

Thank you.

[Raphael]

In German elections, there is something called the "provisional official final result", although it looks to me like that's a contradiction in terms - if something is provisional, it's not final, and if something is final, it's not provisional.

Anyway, the provisional official final result for yesterday's election is:

CDU/CSU: 28.6 percent and 208 seats
AfD: 20.8 percent and 152 seats
SPD: 16.4 percent and 120 seats
Greens: 11.6 percent and 85 seats
The Left: 8.8 percent and 64 seats
BSW: Just barely below 5 percent and therefore no seats
FDP: 4.3 percent and no seats
South Schleswigian Voters Association, SSW: 0.1 percent but exempt from the five percent rule because they're said to represent the Danish minority that lives near the Danish border, 1 seat

Hm.

[bradrn]

In German elections, there is something called the "provisional official final result", although it looks to me like that's a contradiction in terms - if something is provisional, it's not final, and if something is final, it's not provisional.

What a wonderful term that is. Though I feel it can be parsed sanely (or at least less insanely) as ‘provisional [official final result]’.

Hm.

Explain, for the non-Germans here?

[Raphael]

Hm.

Explain, for the non-Germans here?

Well, I'm not at all sure a) what it will all bring us, except probably something bad, and b) whether it will even matter at all, with Trump handing Europe to Putin.

[WeepingElf]

Well, I'm not at all sure a) what it will all bring us, except probably something bad, and b) whether it will even matter at all, with Trump handing Europe to Putin.

Don't be so gloomy. Things do look worrying, but so far, it doesn't look as if the AfD could become part of a governing coalition, and most people in Europe won't accept Trump handing Europe to Putin; in fact, they are deeply worried about Trump and his cronies, and most know for sure that we Europeans must stand united against this threat. A crisis like this can make the people suffering from it stronger.

[Ares Land]

The end result is not unlike the French situation in fact, with the far right doing well in election but not really in a position to do much. Though you guys are better at coalition building than we are!

Amusingly, the RN is actually a little embarassed because they kind of pretend not to get along with the AfD.
I think it's a given in Germany politics that the AfD does well in the East, but the results are still striking when displayed as a map.

[Ares Land]

and most people in Europe won't accept Trump handing Europe to Putin;

Not even that; the best Putin can hope for is that Europe kind of loses interest in Ukraine (which is not far from the present reality) so he can bully Ukraine and the Baltic states to his heart's content. Granted, it's not a very cheerful prospect.