War in the Middle East, again

[Travis B.]

There is also the three-state solution, reunite the West Bank with Jordan and the Gaza Strip with Egypt, after evicting the settlers. (Somehow I haven't seen any discussion of a four-state solution, because to be consistent then the Golan Heights ought to be reunited with Syria... but I doubt anyone wants to make any deals with Assad...)

[keenir]

Let me preface this by saying: I have family in Israel.

I hope they are okay & continue to be safe and healthy.

[keenir]

One thought that I've had, is "Wasn't intel about Israel, part of the folder(s) that then-President Trump leaked to Russia? If thats so, did Russia give a copy of that to anyone who could've given a copy to Hamas or other Palestinians?"

A number of analysts have speculated that Hamas struck now in order to take of advantage of the disarray caused by Bibi's heavy-handed moves against the judiciary. But I'm also reading that an attack of this size and complexity would have had to have been planned a year to a year-and-a-half out, which well predates the current crisis. (A year ago he was still in opposition.)

Indeed, Hamas has reported they’ve been planning this for a long time, though of course it’s hard to know whether they’re telling the truth.

[Linguoboy]

One thought that I've had, is "Wasn't intel about Israel, part of the folder(s) that then-President Trump leaked to Russia? If thats so, did Russia give a copy of that to anyone who could've given a copy to Hamas or other Palestinians?"

I saw a meme to that effect today. It's depressingly plausible, but all the coverage and commentary I've been seeing is focused on the immediate hostilities and political responses to them with no real speculation on the underlying intel failures. We may need to wait months to hear more about those, if we ever really do.

[bradrn]

I see Israel is waiting for everyone to evacuate from Gaza City before invading. I admire the ethics it takes to do that in the face of this situation, though I’m long resigned to the fact that everyone seems consistently biased against Israel no matter what the situation is. (That is to say: even in those cases when Israel is morally in the right, I rarely see positive comments about it.)

One thought that I've had, is "Wasn't intel about Israel, part of the folder(s) that then-President Trump leaked to Russia? If thats so, did Russia give a copy of that to anyone who could've given a copy to Hamas or other Palestinians?"

I saw a meme to that effect today. It's depressingly plausible, but all the coverage and commentary I've been seeing is focused on the immediate hostilities and political responses to them with no real speculation on the underlying intel failures. We may need to wait months to hear more about those, if we ever really do.

I have seen it mentioned in the Israeli press. But yes, it will probably take a while before we hear more.

[rotting bones]

I see Israel is waiting for everyone to evacuate from Gaza City before invading. I admire the ethics it takes to do that in the face of this situation, though I’m long resigned to the fact that everyone seems consistently biased against Israel no matter what the situation is. (That is to say: even in those cases when Israel is morally in the right, I rarely see positive comments about it.)

It's impossible to evacuate 1.1 million people in 24 hours, and Israel has admitted as much in a different communication. It's a flimsy pretext for genocide.

[bradrn]

I see Israel is waiting for everyone to evacuate from Gaza City before invading. I admire the ethics it takes to do that in the face of this situation, though I’m long resigned to the fact that everyone seems consistently biased against Israel no matter what the situation is. (That is to say: even in those cases when Israel is morally in the right, I rarely see positive comments about it.)

It's impossible to evacuate 1.1 million people in 24 hours, and Israel has admitted as much in a different communication. It's a flimsy pretext for genocide.

What I’m seeing says nothing about 24 hours. It says, and I quote: ‘We are monitoring … the movement of people … Once that [evacuation] is completed then the next stage of higher intensity operations in the northern part of the Gaza Strip will start’.

(Source: the spokesman of the IDF speaking on CNN, reported via the Sydney Morning Herald. Unfortunately, the latter makes linking to the quote difficult.)

Also: ‘genocide’? Seriously? As that quote should make clear, Israel at large has no intention of murdering innocent Gazans purely for being Gazans. They are interested only in destroying Hamas and getting the hostages back.

[rotting bones]

What I’m seeing says nothing about 24 hours. It says, and I quote: ‘We are monitoring … the movement of people … Once that [evacuation] is completed then the next stage of higher intensity operations in the northern part of the Gaza Strip will start’.

(Source: the spokesman of the IDF speaking on CNN, reported via the Sydney Morning Herald. Unfortunately, the latter makes linking to the quote difficult.)

Also: ‘genocide’? Seriously? As that quote should make clear, Israel at large has no intention of murdering innocent Gazans purely for being Gazans. They are interested only in destroying Hamas and getting the hostages back.

I did see 24 hours, but I think they will probably wait slightly longer: https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel ... -operation There are only 6 small bridges across the Wadi Gaza.

Once they invade and the civilian casualties inevitably mount, they will say, "Well, we warned them." IDF soldiers murder Palestinians for being Palestinian all the time. There are recordings of them laughing and joking about it. There are recordings of other IDF soldiers of being traumatized after witnessing it. There are award-winning pieces of Israeli media about this phenomenon. I've watched at least 2 of them.

I can understand defending Israeli citizens, but you have to understand the strength of Far Right politics in Israel. Netanyahu is basically a Jewish Putin. Did you know that Netanyahu has tried to absolve Hitler of the holocaust? He thinks Germans carried out the holocaust reluctantly after some Arab convinced them to do it.

[bradrn]

I can understand defending Israeli citizens, but you have to understand the strength of Far Right politics in Israel.

Oh, I know it full well. It’s Trumpian — Netanyahu cares only for saving his own skin from prison, and is willing to ally himself with as many evil people as he can in order to cling to power.

However, this is not just the Bibi Netanyahu Show any more. This is a whole-of-Israel crisis and response, with a national unity government (or as close as can be gotten under Netanyahu). And it’s one where we have no good options: either the IDF withdraws and leaves innocent Israelis to their fates, or they invade and leave innocent Palestinians to be caught in their cross-fire. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. And I consider it a credit to the IDF that they’re at least attempting to remove civilians from the scene before invading. Under these horrific circumstances, that’s probably as close to ‘the right thing’ as possible.

[Travis B.]

What I’m seeing says nothing about 24 hours. It says, and I quote: ‘We are monitoring … the movement of people … Once that [evacuation] is completed then the next stage of higher intensity operations in the northern part of the Gaza Strip will start’.

(Source: the spokesman of the IDF speaking on CNN, reported via the Sydney Morning Herald. Unfortunately, the latter makes linking to the quote difficult.)

Also: ‘genocide’? Seriously? As that quote should make clear, Israel at large has no intention of murdering innocent Gazans purely for being Gazans. They are interested only in destroying Hamas and getting the hostages back.

I did see 24 hours, but I think they will probably wait slightly longer: https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel ... -operation There are only 6 small bridges across the Wadi Gaza.

Once they invade and the civilian casualties inevitably mount, they will say, "Well, we warned them." IDF soldiers murder Palestinians for being Palestinian all the time. There are recordings of them laughing and joking about it. There are recordings of other IDF soldiers of being traumatized after witnessing it. There are award-winning pieces of Israeli media about this phenomenon. I've watched at least 2 of them.

I can understand defending Israeli citizens, but you have to understand the strength of Far Right politics in Israel. Netanyahu is basically a Jewish Putin. Did you know that Netanyahu has tried to absolve Hitler of the holocaust? He thinks Germans carried out the holocaust reluctantly after some Arab convinced them to do it.

The problem is that Hamas crossed an unwritten red line whose crossing simply cannot be tolerated no matter who is in power in Israel, i.e. killing more Israelis in the space of a week than those killed in both Intifadas combined. Unlike previous fighting beween Hamas and Israel, this time the Israeli gov't cannot just drop a few bombs and call it a day, Netanyahu or no Netanyahu. Hamas has effectively asked for their own destruction by putting the Israeli gov't in a position where it can no longer tolerate its existence.

Of course, this has the problem of that there are over a million innocent Gazans who share the same space with Hamas. And yes, evacuating over a million people in such a short span of time is difficult to impossible, and there will be deaths just from such a hasty evacuation unto itself. (E.g. far more people died from the evacuation after the Fukushima accident than from the radiation itself.) There is no good solution or outcome here, because the main options are either the destruction of Hamas combined with many civilian deaths from those who failed to evacuate and from the evacuation itself, or to not destroy Hamas and send the message that Hamas can premeditatedly kill over a thousand innocent civilians and take over a hundred hostages in one go and get away with it with relative impunity, which will only lead to this repeating itself in the future.

[rotting bones]

either the IDF withdraws and leaves innocent Israelis to their fates, or they invade and leave innocent Palestinians to be caught in their cross-fire. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. And I consider it a credit to the IDF that they’re at least attempting to remove civilians from the scene before invading. Under these horrific circumstances, that’s probably as close to ‘the right thing’ as possible.

How would a ground invasion of Gaza help Israel?

Personally, I think Israel would be better off without invading the concentration camp they've constructed, which is partly why I'm in favor of it.

[rotting bones]

Of course, this has the problem of that there are over a million innocent Gazans who share the same space with Hamas. And yes, evacuating over a million people in such a short span of time is difficult to impossible, and there will be deaths just from such a hasty evacuation unto itself. (E.g. far more people died from the evacuation after the Fukushima accident than from the radiation itself.) There is no good solution or outcome here, because the main options are either the destruction of Hamas combined with many civilian deaths from those who failed to evacuate and from the evacuation itself, or to not destroy Hamas and send the message that Hamas can premeditatedly kill over a thousand innocent civilians in one go and get away with it with relative impunity, which will only lead to this repeating itself in the future.

Hamas has no power in this situation. Israel deliberately withdrew the IDF from Gaza to terrorize the West Bank, Palestinians who are effectively cooperating with their own annihilation. If Israel implements strict security measures around Gaza, then Hamas is powerless. The invasion only serves the purpose of slaking Netanyahu's bloodlust.

Again, Israel kills more Palestinian civilians every year than Hamas kills Israeli civilians. The world only suffers attacks of conscience when victims fight back against their oppressors.

[Travis B.]

Of course, this has the problem of that there are over a million innocent Gazans who share the same space with Hamas. And yes, evacuating over a million people in such a short span of time is difficult to impossible, and there will be deaths just from such a hasty evacuation unto itself. (E.g. far more people died from the evacuation after the Fukushima accident than from the radiation itself.) There is no good solution or outcome here, because the main options are either the destruction of Hamas combined with many civilian deaths from those who failed to evacuate and from the evacuation itself, or to not destroy Hamas and send the message that Hamas can premeditatedly kill over a thousand innocent civilians in one go and get away with it with relative impunity, which will only lead to this repeating itself in the future.

Hamas has no power in this situation. Israel deliberately withdrew the IDF from Gaza to terrorize the West Bank, Palestinians who are effectively cooperating with their own annihilation. If Israel implements strict security measures around Gaza, then Hamas is powerless. The invasion only serves the purpose of slaking Netanyahu's bloodlust.

This isn't Netanyahu anymore. At the end of the day, Netanyahu is politically toast as this debacle has occurred under his watch, as happened with Meir and Begin. And no matter who is in power in Israel this would end the same at this point ─ and while it is easy to say that this was originally due to Netanyahu, it has been pointed out that due to the length of the planning necessary this was likely being planned while Netanyahu was in the opposition.

Again, Israel kills more Palestinian civilians every year than Hamas kills Israeli civilians. The world only suffers attacks of conscience when victims fight back against their oppressors.

People attending a music event are "oppressors"?

[bradrn]

either the IDF withdraws and leaves innocent Israelis to their fates, or they invade and leave innocent Palestinians to be caught in their cross-fire. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. And I consider it a credit to the IDF that they’re at least attempting to remove civilians from the scene before invading. Under these horrific circumstances, that’s probably as close to ‘the right thing’ as possible.

How would a ground invasion of Gaza help Israel?

Because it allows them to achieve their goals: namely, to rescue the hostages, and to destroy Hamas. There must be no reward for terrorism and kidnapping.

Hamas has no power in this situation.

OK, at this point I feel you are either willfully ignorant or arguing in bad faith. Either way, I cannot discuss this topic with you, and I will stop this conversation right here.

[rotting bones]

Of course, this has the problem of that there are over a million innocent Gazans who share the same space with Hamas. And yes, evacuating over a million people in such a short span of time is difficult to impossible, and there will be deaths just from such a hasty evacuation unto itself. (E.g. far more people died from the evacuation after the Fukushima accident than from the radiation itself.) There is no good solution or outcome here, because the main options are either the destruction of Hamas combined with many civilian deaths from those who failed to evacuate and from the evacuation itself, or to not destroy Hamas and send the message that Hamas can premeditatedly kill over a thousand innocent civilians in one go and get away with it with relative impunity, which will only lead to this repeating itself in the future.

Hamas has no power in this situation. Israel deliberately withdrew the IDF from Gaza to terrorize the West Bank, Palestinians who are effectively cooperating with their own annihilation. If Israel implements strict security measures around Gaza, then Hamas is powerless. The invasion only serves the purpose of slaking Netanyahu's bloodlust.

This isn't Netanyahu anymore. At the end of the day, Netanyahu is politically toast as this debacle has occurred under his watch, as happened with Meir and Begin. And no matter who is in power in Israel this would end the same at this point ─ and while it is easy to say that this was originally due to Netanyahu, it has been pointed out that due to the length of the planning necessary this was likely being planned while Netanyahu was in the opposition.

Again, Israel kills more Palestinian civilians every year than Hamas kills Israeli civilians. The world only suffers attacks of conscience when victims fight back against their oppressors.

People attending a music event are "oppressors"?

There are recent images of Hamas practicing for this attack. What you have to understand about Hamas is that they are not a national military. They are a prison gang in a concentration camp that spans entire cities. There is no possible world where the gang breaks out of confinement, and doesn't brutalize every civilian in sight. There used to be armed socialist resistance groups in Palestine. Israel helped Hamas and destroyed the socialists because they knew Hamas is bad for Palestine's optics.

[rotting bones]

either the IDF withdraws and leaves innocent Israelis to their fates, or they invade and leave innocent Palestinians to be caught in their cross-fire. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. And I consider it a credit to the IDF that they’re at least attempting to remove civilians from the scene before invading. Under these horrific circumstances, that’s probably as close to ‘the right thing’ as possible.

How would a ground invasion of Gaza help Israel?

Because it allows them to achieve their goals: namely, to rescue the hostages, and to destroy Hamas. There must be no reward for terrorism and kidnapping.

Hamas has no power in this situation.

OK, at this point I feel you are either willfully ignorant or arguing in bad faith. Either way, I cannot discuss this topic with you, and I will stop this conversation right here.

There are ways of dealing with prison gangs that don't require full scale military invasion of the prison complex. Since you're not going to answer, I'm disinclined to elaborate.

[Travis B.]

There are recent images of Hamas practicing for this attack.

This underscores how this is such an intelligence failure on the Israeli gov't's part, but it does not indicate that the Israeli gov't deliberately permitted this to take place.

What you have to understand about Hamas is that they are not a national military.

You could say that about just about any armed group that does not belong to a nation-state per se.

They are a prison gang in a concentration camp that spans entire cities.

They are more akin to the "governments" of the bantustans under apartheid South Africa, except that they have a habit of fighting with the Israeli gov't every so often, unlike the bantustans vis-à-vis South Africa.

There is no possible world where the gang breaks out of confinement, and doesn't brutalize every civilian in sight.

That justifies nothing.

There used to be armed socialist resistance groups in Palestine. Israel helped Hamas and destroyed the socialists because they knew Hamas is bad for Palestine's optics.

Netanyahu helped Hamas because he was focused on weakening the Palestinian Authority with the aim of aiding the settlers within the West Bank.

[rotting bones]

This underscores how this is such an intelligence failure on the Israeli gov't's part, but it does not indicate that the Israeli gov't deliberately permitted this to take place.

It is a failure. I don't think Israel allowed it to take place. Now they have to eradicate Hamas, which is bad for Israel.

You could say that about just about any armed group that does not belong to a nation-state per se.

...

They are more akin to the "governments" of the bantustans under apartheid South Africa, except that they have a habit of fighting with the Israeli gov't every so often, unlike the bantustans vis-à-vis South Africa.

Hamas is strapped for resources. The Israeli army is one of the most sophisticated in the world. If they were serious about boxing Hamas in, there is nothing Hamas could do about it.

That justifies nothing.

It's not justified. The justified position is to condemn both sides, and "both sides" rhetoric infamously accomplishes nothing.

Netanyahu helped Hamas because he was focused on weakening the Palestinian Authority with the aim of aiding the settlers within the West Bank.

He could have used the socialists to undermine the PA. Why choose a violent gang of regressives?

[rotting bones]

And yes, evacuating over a million people in such a short span of time is difficult to impossible, and there will be deaths just from such a hasty evacuation unto itself.

Meanwhile, Israel is blockading food and water shipments to Gaza, and the average age in Gaza is 18.

[rotting bones]

They are more akin to the "governments" of the bantustans under apartheid South Africa, except that they have a habit of fighting with the Israeli gov't every so often, unlike the bantustans vis-à-vis South Africa.

I'm not sure how to explain how bad the conditions are in Gaza. Maybe watching this video will help if you haven't already: https://youtu.be/bZq7tOGAkfA