Raphael wrote: ↑Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:33 pm
And the Irish ended the constitutional ban on blasphemy, too.
Indeed, although it's a symbolic gesture only at this point, since blasphemy wasn't actually banned in Ireland. The constitution requires a 'blasphemy' ban, but actually banning blasphemy was ruled unconstitutional a few decades ago (and there haven't actually been any convinctions for it in a century and a half). So a 'blasphemy' law was introduced that didn't actually relate to blasphemy. Instead, the blasphemy law is a hate-speech law: it outlaws publically making remarks grossly offensive to a religious community (like, say, the blood libel against Jews). The law was never actually used, because its safeguards were extremely high: the material had to be "grossly abusive", the effect had to be to actually and demonstrably cause significant outrage to a substantial number of people, the intent had to be specifically to cause that outrage, and the law was not applicable to any remarks that held literary, artistic, political, scientific or academic value, no matter how offensive they might be, which would rule out almost any possible actual remarks.
The government says it'll remove the 'blasphemy' hate crime laws now, but since they were unusable anyway and any use they might have had was already covered by other laws that didn't have 'blasphemy' in the title, the actual effect will be zero. It's basically a referendum on whether people like the word or not. And people didn't - even the Catholic Church supported the removal of the laws.
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Nerulent: nobody knows.
The first question is: does Bolsonaro want to impose a dictatorship? He's said so in the past, but is that still true? Was it ever, or was he just posturing?
The second question is: if he does, how will he go about it? He's got a series of possible routes open to him:
1: he can try to force through repressive legislation
2: he can call for a popular uprising to overthrow institutions like the legislatures and the courts
3: he can call for a popular uprising to enact his objectives while ignoring established institutions (eg, he could call for popular massacres, or more likely campaigns of violence to pressure dissidents to leave the country)
4: he can call for the army to take over
5: he can declare that existing institutions are abolished or placed under his direct command, rule by decree and enforce his decrees through paramilitary groups
The first option will be very hard for him: his party holds just over 10% of seats in the lower chamber and under 10% in the upper chamber. [it's the biggest party. The Brazilian national legislature is notoriously ungovernable, which is why governing parties have had to rely on pervasive bribery in order to get any legislation passed]. Of course, many smaller parties will side with him, but I doubt they would do so to establish a dictatorship and eliminate themselves.
The second is really hard to do: institutions are hard to topple.
The third is relatively easy to do, but tends to be limited in its efficacy: it can disrupt, but it's hard to actually get things done that way.
The fourth would very swiftly establish a dictatorship. The problem is, the military probably don't want to take over, and it would provoke popular hostility.
So the fifth is the usual way that this happens. This would require tacit support from the military, but wouldn't require them to actually get their hands dirty. But does he have the popular backing for it to work?
There are going to be two main routes for this to happen. The first is in the coming hours and days: will Bolsonaro launch immediate 'reform'? It would be unusual, but the things he's said suggest that it's not impossible. Right now is also when his mandate is greatest. The alternative route is safer for him: attempt major reform through the democratic institution, have it blocked, rally people around the idea that this proves that institutional reform (i.e. a dictatorship, or, as Fujimori put it, "a search for an authentic transformation to assure a legitimate and effective democracy") is required. The Fujigolpe that would presumably be his model didn't occur until 1992, two years into Fujimori's administration. This approach lets him show the military (and the public) that he has exhausted non-violent methods.
Having won, he's sworn "an oath before God" to preserve democracy... but Fujimori said that's what he was doing too. That said, that might indicate that Bolsonaro's not planning an immediate autogolpe.
Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks that. 