Zompist Bboard Again

jcb wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2026 8:41 am Russia will not sit idly by. I expect them to replicate, innovate, and mass produce the technology, just like they've already done with drones.

Of course both sides are trying to make advances. The Ukrainians seem to make them faster, though. And if Russia's oil export capacity is devastated, so is its ability to buy Chinese components.

I know that Western news outlets always present Ukraine as winning, and Russia as about to collapse,

I have the complete opposite impression: the Western news media is always predicting massive Russian breakthroughs, which either don't happen or are stategically meaningless, and consume thousands of troops per day.

This is confirmed by the fact that you were under the impression that Russia is "slowly gaining ground". In fact it looks like Ukraine reversed a year of Russian gains.

The scale of both Russia and Ukrainian operation is small; please don't take this as a statement that Ukraine is about to kick Russia out of its territory. If only.

zompist wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2026 5:03 pm The scale of both Russia and Ukrainian operation is small; please don't take this as a statement that Ukraine is about to kick Russia out of its territory. If only.

Indeed. We're only just on the favourable-to-Ukraine side of stalemate.

zompist wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2026 5:03 pm

jcb wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2026 8:41 am Russia will not sit idly by. I expect them to replicate, innovate, and mass produce the technology, just like they've already done with drones.

Of course both sides are trying to make advances. The Ukrainians seem to make them faster, though. And if Russia's oil export capacity is devastated, so is its ability to buy Chinese components.

I know that Western news outlets always present Ukraine as winning, and Russia as about to collapse,

I have the complete opposite impression: the Western news media is always predicting massive Russian breakthroughs, which either don't happen or are stategically meaningless, and consume thousands of troops per day.

This is confirmed by the fact that you were under the impression that Russia is "slowly gaining ground". In fact it looks like Ukraine reversed a year of Russian gains.

The scale of both Russia and Ukrainian operation is small; please don't take this as a statement that Ukraine is about to kick Russia out of its territory. If only.

(1) I'm watching more stuff on YouTube than from national broadcasters (ABC, CBS, NBC), so maybe that's why our impressions are different.
(2) Yes, the amount of troops that Russia loses per day is astonishing.
(3) Yes, I've learned that my impression was a few months out of date.
(4) I think that perhaps we're using different definitions of "winning". You're using it on a shorter timescale, and I'm using it on a longer one.

But even if the war stopped (with a ceasefire) right now, I wouldn't say that either side "won". Russia has lost an enormous amount of soldiers, gained a small amount of land compared to its vast holdings in Siberia, has been hit with heavy sanctions that will probably last for the next couple decades, and failed to remove or replace the pro-Western Ukrainian government. Ukraine has lost a large amount of soldiers, lost 20% of its land, has a devastated economy, and has no security guarantee from NATO to prevent this from happening again in the future. Both sides are worse off compared to before the war.

jcb wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2026 6:59 am (4) I think that perhaps we're using different definitions of "winning". You're using it on a shorter timescale, and I'm using it on a longer one.

I think the misunderstanding is that when we say "winning" we mean that Ukraine is on a trajectory to ultimately win. Obviously they're not in a position where they would come out on top if there was a ceasefire today, but that doesn't mean that they don't have a much more advantageous position than Russia, which actually gives them a realistic chance of winning back all their territory, including Crimea. Russia, on the other hand, has no plausible route to even claiming the entire Donbas, let alone the four oblasts they claim, and forget about taking Kyiv. They just can't make progress without sacrificing ever increasing numbers of lives.

The point of my somewhat contentious post earler was that, when I see quite a few stories like this, the definition and meaning of "winning" are not totally clear.

jcb wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2026 6:59 am (1) I'm watching more stuff on YouTube than from national broadcasters (ABC, CBS, NBC), so maybe that's why our impressions are different.

I watch a lot of YouTube content on the Ukraine war, but I have a much more optimistic view than you. We must be watching different channels.

Not directly related to the war, but apparently there has been an outbreak of the literal plague in Siberia over the past few days. Hopefully they get this resolved quickly or it could become the next COVID if not worse. There is something fitting about the threat of plague looming ahead given our apparent slide into a new dark age.

malloc wrote: ↑Tue Oct 06, 2026 7:54 pm Not directly related to the war, but apparently there has been an outbreak of the literal plague in Siberia over the past few days. Hopefully they get this resolved quickly or it could become the next COVID if not worse. There is something fitting about the threat of plague looming ahead given our apparent slide into a new dark age.

The plague is easily treatible with modern antibiotics, although the pulmonic plague is supposed to be slightly harder to treat that way. It's slightly worrying that the plague wasn't considered, given the person who died worked at an institute studying it, but you can be sure it will be on everyone's radar there now. It seems to be an isolated lab spill case, which is obviously bad, but shouldn't present a risk to the general public if it's taken seriously, and it will be, and in fact already has been, because it's the literal plague. I'm not sayinngthe plague situation is rosy, but it not worth worrying about unless we start to see more cases in Siberia that suggests human-to-human transmission, rather than lab spill. And maybe that institute should double check its plague is safe and isolated.

¹ And has a much higher risk of person-to-person transmission, but we've not heard anything about other people getting sick, so we seem to have been lucky that way, and it's not as bad as a bog standard respiratory virus for that. We think. There is a regrettable lack of data on the plague

Furthermore, the plague is endemic to Siberia anyway. That’s why they have a research institute there.

And just so you know, plague exists out west in the US today, and every year or so a few people catch it -- yet it has practically no interpersonal transmission.

I agree with everyone here. But don't tell me your first reaction reading that headline wasn't 'oh not now'

Malloc is no allowed to read this (you'll just get unnecessary anxiety):

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/10 ... as-google/

So, Russia's equivalent to Google, Yandex, has had its data centers hit. Apparently, it's knocked multiple Russian bots offline.

MysteryMan23 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2026 4:02 pm https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/10 ... as-google/

So, Russia's equivalent to Google, Yandex, has had its data centers hit. Apparently, it's knocked multiple Russian bots online.

Do you really mean "knocked ... offline"? Or perhaps "knocked mutiple online Russian bots"? Or am I too old to be familiar with the expression "to knock online"? The world needs to know!

alice wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2026 2:10 pm

MysteryMan23 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2026 4:02 pm https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/10 ... as-google/

So, Russia's equivalent to Google, Yandex, has had its data centers hit. Apparently, it's knocked multiple Russian bots online.

Do you really mean "knocked ... offline"? Or perhaps "knocked mutiple online Russian bots"? Or am I too old to be familiar with the expression "to knock online"? The world needs to know!

I think that was a thinko for "offline".

Travis B. wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2026 2:30 pm

alice wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2026 2:10 pm

MysteryMan23 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2026 4:02 pm https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2026/10 ... as-google/

So, Russia's equivalent to Google, Yandex, has had its data centers hit. Apparently, it's knocked multiple Russian bots online.

Do you really mean "knocked ... offline"? Or perhaps "knocked mutiple online Russian bots"? Or am I too old to be familiar with the expression "to knock online"? The world needs to know!

I think that was a thinko for "offline".

Correct. I fixed it just now.