Zompist Bboard Again

Ahzoh wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 7:20 pmIt makes me sad and scared that my mum, who works in the US on a work visa, might get randomly wrongfully detained and held in detention for being Canadian. And chances are she won't be able to go to my Aunt's wedding this summer for the same reason.

I'm sure you've heard the truism that dystopia is where what's already happening to POC happens to white people. Detained Canadian Jasmine Mooney made exactly that point in her recent piece for the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ine-mooney. (Like your mom, she was also in the US on a longstanding work visa, so I'm afraid your fears are grounded.)

I have a white friend who's a biologist at the University of Toronto. He's on sabbatical now and was planning to spend it in the States. Not any more. Several other white friends of mine, from Spain to Australia, have made similar decisions or are currently wavering. (I get it: pre-purchased travel is often a sunk cost if you don't pay extra for refundable tickets.) I support their decisions, even though I'll miss not seeing them. Plus it's going to be a big blow to Chicago's economy, which depends heavily on tourism, particularly from Canada. But I really can't recommend that anyone visit the USA right now.

Overall, the economic cost of these policies has been estimated at $64 billion, with one major analyst firm revising their forecast from a 5% increase in tourism to a 9% drop. If it really is true that what it takes to change opinion is to hit people in the pocketbook, one can only hope that the slump in visitors to places like Florida will cause some folks to reevalute the consequences of xenophobia.

Ahzoh wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 8:53 am https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/24/poli ... berg-order

And people thought Trump cared about drug gangs. He just let one go.

Of course, he knows that junkies don't rally in the streets and protest against the government. Drug gangs at least keep the people docile.

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 11:10 am I'm sure you've heard the truism that dystopia is where what's already happening to POC happens to white people. [...] But I really can't recommend that anyone visit the USA right now.

Seconded. We have family who are thinking about visits, and I'm trying to discourage them. It's absolutely absurd that travel to the US now carries a risk of detention in prison and torture, but that's what the Republicans have given us in just two months.

Overall, the economic cost of these policies has been estimated at $64 billion, with one major analyst firm revising their forecast from a 5% increase in tourism to a 9% drop. If it really is true that what it takes to change opinion is to hit people in the pocketbook, one can only hope that the slump in visitors to places like Florida will cause some folks to reevalute the consequences of xenophobia.

Yep, another industry destroyed by the Republicans. The simplest theory is still that they are foreign agents trying to ruin the country, but perhaps it's just that they never ever think that their actions have consequences. Imprison tourists, and tourism stops. Implement kill-switches on jets, and jet sales stop. Tax imports, and exports stop.

From someone on Mastodon:

A friend of mine is a scientist in France. He just got briefing on what to do when traveling to the US. He was told to use an empty, freshly installed laptop with nothing but his presentation on it. Uninstall all messengers and social media. If he has to surrender any of his devices even for a minute, he shall get it checked by the French secret service for back-doors and Trojans.

Commenters note that this is the procedure for going to China, too.

zompist wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 3:21 pm

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 11:10 am I'm sure you've heard the truism that dystopia is where what's already happening to POC happens to white people. [...] But I really can't recommend that anyone visit the USA right now.

Seconded. We have family who are thinking about visits, and I'm trying to discourage them. It's absolutely absurd that travel to the US now carries a risk of detention in prison and torture, but that's what the Republicans have given us in just two months.

Pre-current administration, I would always joke that I strongly recommended against any visits to the United States. Now it's no longer a joke. (And some of my coworkers have secondments to the US planned, so maybe I should start dropping hints that it's a horrible idea...)

In any event, plans for getting a red passport are picking up, not least of all because that would also give me an option to try to get my brother and mother out if things really nosedive.

I have coworkers who are here in the US who are from China and India -- since all this I have started wondering if the ICE will start disappearing them on their flimsy pretexts, to disappear into their detention centers and whether they'll even ever get out of them.

zompist wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 3:21 pm

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 11:10 am Overall, the economic cost of these policies has been estimated at $64 billion, with one major analyst firm revising their forecast from a 5% increase in tourism to a 9% drop. If it really is true that what it takes to change opinion is to hit people in the pocketbook, one can only hope that the slump in visitors to places like Florida will cause some folks to reevalute the consequences of xenophobia.

Yep, another industry destroyed by the Republicans. The simplest theory is still that they are foreign agents trying to ruin the country, but perhaps it's just that they never ever think that their actions have consequences. Imprison tourists, and tourism stops. Implement kill-switches on jets, and jet sales stop. Tax imports, and exports stop.

Trump has no great negotiation skills. He's just a bully who relies on simply being bigger than the other guy. When he's confronted with an opponent that has the autonomy and means to retaliate, his lack of skill (or plan, or knowledge, or allies, etc) is revealed.

zompist wrote:If the Republicans torch Social Security, then yes, states turn blue in a hurry. Or at least anti-red. The voters won't turn on Trump because of another Trump scandal, or because foreigners are dying because of him. They do care about bread and butter issues, such as the cost of bread and butter.

A couple of anecdotes from Mastodon. Anecdata, but interesting.

But is even that going to convince them to vote for Democrats, who they think are literally baby-eating spawn of Satan, to save/restore it?
- https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/ ... nes-229650
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-to-b ... fake-news/

jcb wrote: ↑Mon Mar 24, 2025 10:31 pm But is even that going to convince them to vote for Democrats, who they think are literally baby-eating spawn of Satan, to save/restore it?
- https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/ ... nes-229650
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-to-b ... fake-news/

It may not convince the people who think the Democrats are the baby-eating spawn of Satan, but it just has to convince the people who care oh-so-much about the price of eggs.

I don't think you can ever convince the hardcore base of the opposite side (whoever that may be) in politics.
Convincing people who are kind of on the fence is definitely possible, though!
The most committed conservatives won't ever vote Democrat... but some of them may decide to stay home in the next election.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 7:21 am I don't think you can ever convince the hardcore base of the opposite side (whoever that may be) in politics.
Convincing people who are kind of on the fence is definitely possible, though!
The most committed conservatives won't ever vote Democrat... but some of them may decide to stay home in the next election.

You're never ever going to convince people who make team sports politics their entire personality.

Ahzoh wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 9:58 am

Ares Land wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 7:21 am I don't think you can ever convince the hardcore base of the opposite side (whoever that may be) in politics.
Convincing people who are kind of on the fence is definitely possible, though!
The most committed conservatives won't ever vote Democrat... but some of them may decide to stay home in the next election.

You're never ever going to convince people who make team sports politics their entire personality.

Thing is, we don't need to convince those people, and it is a waste of time to try. We only need to convince people on the fence who previously voted Republican to stay home (they don't even need to vote Democrat).

Travis B. wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 12:25 pmThing is, we don't need to convince those people, and it is a waste of time to try. We only need to convince people on the fence who previously voted Republican to stay home (they don't even need to vote Democrat).

That admittedly is true. Based on everything I read, Trump didn't dramatically increase his vote totals over previous years but Harris failed to turn out voters on the same level that Biden did. Nonetheless the Republicans seem much harder to demoralize than liberals and never contemplate surrender even in their rare moments of defeat.

malloc wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 12:42 pm Nonetheless the Republicans seem much harder to demoralize than liberals and never contemplate surrender even in their rare moments of defeat.

that might be because you're comparing members of a political party {republican}, with members of a view {liberal}...which is harder to apply varnish to: blue paint or steam?

One thing I note is that the Signal leak seems to be the first time where the Congressional Democrats have really pushed back on the Republicans since Trump was inaugurated...

Travis B. wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 2:17 pm One thing I note is that the Signal leak seems to be the first time where the Congressional Democrats have really pushed back on the Republicans since Trump was inaugurated...

It's just so fucking egregious. Plus the Republicans have been saying for decades that we can't trust national security to the Democrats and making hay out of every tiny slipup on their part. It's worth a shot to see if there's still one or two lawmakers in the GOP who retains a nodding acquaintance with the notion of principles.

Now that you're here, Linguoboy, I have a serious question for you related to US politics:

IIRC, a few years ago, somewhere on the ZBB, you remarked that, with your traits and position in life, if you would be a completely unethical, self-serving person, it would make sense for you to support the Republicans. Do you still think that?

Linguoboy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 3:58 pm It's worth a shot to see if there's still one or two lawmakers in the GOP who retains a nodding acquaintance with the notion of principles.

Slim pickings. It might be relevant that 3 Republicans voted against approving Hegseth– Collins, Murkowski, and McConnell— forcing Vance to cast the deciding vote. It looks like Murkowski is calling for an investigation. I can't see that McConnell has said anything at all.

Collins called Signalgate "troubling", which is her patented move. I feel like Collins gets way too much credit for occasionally very lightly criticizing her party.

This latest scandal with Signal does give me hope that the MAGA regime could actually lose WWIII owing to sheer incompetence if nothing else. They still have an overwhelming advantage in military hardware and funding but that can only take them so far without good strategy and intelligence.

malloc wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 8:11 pm the MAGA regime could actually lose WWIII owing to sheer incompetence if nothing else.

Note that this is what we’ve all been saying to you for quite some time now.

malloc wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 8:11 pm This latest scandal with Signal does give me hope that the MAGA regime could actually lose WWIII owing to sheer incompetence if nothing else.

I don't think WW3 would actually start; but I do agree that they'd lose such a war if one did begin.

They still have an overwhelming advantage in military hardware

against Yemen, yes; against other nations, not so much.

we might have more of it, but the tech level isn't as disparate as you may think.

and funding

eh...see below.

but that can only take them so far without good strategy and intelligence.

that is true.

also hard when ones nation is speeding towards bankruptcy. (with or without considering which nations hold the US's debt}

malloc wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 8:11 pm This latest scandal with Signal does give me hope that the MAGA regime could actually lose WWIII owing to sheer incompetence if nothing else. They still have an overwhelming advantage in military hardware and funding but that can only take them so far without good strategy and intelligence.

That surprised me, as did the other fuckups. I really didn't expect them to be that stupid and incompetent.