Elections in various countries

[Vijay]

I completely forgot to mention that elections have been going on in India lately! In Kerala, the chief minister gave a speech recently, but no one was wearing a mask, soooo guess what happened?

[MacAnDàil]

In France, politics seems very different between local and national elections:
In the presidential elections, there is the threat of replacing Macron with Le Pen (thankfully no poll has ever given her ahead against Macron, but one or two have given her ahead against a Socialist, Green or Unsubdued candidate, which would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

By total contrast, in the local elections last year, the main winners were mainly independents and coalitions, but the main single parties to win were the Republicans and the Greens. If only people voted the same way they did in the local elections!

In any case, it might be an idea to have some experts in the field: Thomas Piketty as Minister of the Economy, Aurélien Barrau as Minister of Space, (there was another example I meant put here but then forgot) etc

[Ares Land]

In France, politics seems very different between local and national elections:
In the presidential elections, there is the threat of replacing Macron with Le Pen (thankfully no poll has ever given her ahead against Macron, but one or two have given her ahead against a Socialist, Green or Unsubdued candidate, which would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

By total contrast, in the local elections last year, the main winners were mainly independents and coalitions, but the main single parties to win were the Republicans and the Greens. If only people voted the same way they did in the local elections!

*sigh* What can I say? The problem here is that our presidential system is undemocratic.
The Republicans/Greens division seems to me a lot more relevant and representative.

What the poll reflect too is the very disturbing fact that there isn't yet a credible left-wing candidate. I still have some hope, but I don't think we'll get one in 2022. Though stranger things have happened : nobody would have thought of Macron as a serious presidential contender in May 2016.
There has been talk of Anne Hidalgo (the mayor of Paris) running. I have many issues with her, but we could do a lot worse.

In any case, it might be an idea to have some experts in the field: Thomas Piketty as Minister of the Economy, Aurélien Barrau as Minister of Space, (there was another example I meant put here but then forgot) etc

That could work, on the condition that the expert is left something to work with. Macron tried this to Hulot, but Hulot figured out soon enough that he was there as a publicity stunt.

I'm not sure I buy Piketty as a Minister, though. He's an excellent theoricians, but very short on actual politics. His proposals (UBI, capitals gains tax, universal capital grants) are good, but what the electorate wants is some kind of plan for putting this in practice -- and this, so far, is lacking.

[Vijay]

The BJP had one seat in Kerala. It has now lost that seat.

A BJP politician touring Kerala (to gain support in the elections) visited Thiruvalla, my parents' hometown, and insisted on referring to it as Srivallabhapuram or something. This doesn't seem to have endeared her much to anyone in Kerala.

[Ares Land]

In France, senescent military leaders are once again given a platform to complain about How The Country is Going to the Dogs and hinting that the military taking charge would be for the best.

I do agree that the country is going to the dogs, but that's because back in the day, the military shut their damn fucking mouths and stayed the fuck out of politics.

Jesus. These guys should be court-martialed.

Meanwhile, 48% apparently agree with the old reactionary farts. This is actually in accordance in tradition. If you say something incredibly stupid, the French will agree with it.

Oh, and Macron and his government do nothing and said nothing. This too, is traditional: when there is any sort of problem here, it is customary for the government to put its head in the sand and do nothing.

I'm actually not worried about a coup. But that's only because we're too lazy, stupid and ineffectual as a country to actually be bothered to have a coup.

[Ryusenshi]

Meanwhile, 48% apparently agree with the old reactionary farts.

I saw somewhere (sorry, I don't remember where, I'll post the link if I can find it) that this figure is incredibly misleading. First, it comes from a very small survey. Second, most people in this survey didn't know what the manifesto actually said. Only 48% of the people who had read the manifesto entirely agreed with it. Maybe (read: certainly) there is a correlation between the people who were interested in reading the whole thing, and the people who liked what it said!

[Ares Land]

Meanwhile, 48% apparently agree with the old reactionary farts.

I saw somewhere (sorry, I don't remember where, I'll post the link if I can find it) that this figure is incredibly misleading. First, it comes from a very small survey. Second, most people in this survey didn't know what the manifesto actually said. Only 48% of the people who had read the manifesto entirely agreed. Maybe (read: certainly) the people who were interested in reading the whole thing are, statistically, likely to be the people most likely to agree with it!

Ahh, thanks, that makes a lot more sense than the version I had.

[bradrn]

Oh, and Macron and his government do nothing and said nothing. This too, is traditional: when there is any sort of problem here, it is customary for the government to put its head in the sand and do nothing.

A-ha, so that’s where the Australian government got it from! Our government is also exceedingly good at being ostriches — except, apparently, when even a single COVID-19 case is found, at which point they become amazingly efficient at imposing lockdowns. (Not that I’m complaining, mind. It’s far preferable to the alternative! I just wish that they applied the same fervour to, say, climate change, woman’s rights, assistance to Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islanders…)

_____

Relatedly, your post reminds me of a bit I saw in the newspaper yesterday:

Apocrypha of the week: In 1815 the Paris Moniteur newspaper reported Napoleon Bonaparte’s flight from exile on Elba and his return to power and glory. March 9: The monster has escaped from the place of his banishment. March 10: The Corsican ogre has landed at Cape Juan. March 12: The monster has actually advanced as far as Grenoble. March 18: The usurper has ventured to approach within 60 hours’ march of the capital. March 19: Bonaparte is advancing by forced marches, but it is impossible for him to reach Paris. March 21: The Emperor Napoleon is at Fontainebleau. March 22: Yesterday evening His Majesty the Emperor made his public entry and arrived at the Tuileries. Nothing can exceed the universal joy.

Sadly, this piece of apocrypha turns out to be, well, apocryphal, but it’s an interesting reflection on the media, who do try this now and again. (My favourite was an incident recently, when the former head of Australia Post, who was fired for purchasing AU$12000 in Cartier watches for executives, informed us that her firing was in fact due to parliamentary misogyny. This is entirely believale — our government is easily incompetent and conservative enough to do that (cf above re ostriches) — but it was interesting to observe how abruptly my newspaper switched from castigation to ebullient praise.)

[MacAnDàil]

In France, politics seems very different between local and national elections:
In the presidential elections, there is the threat of replacing Macron with Le Pen (thankfully no poll has ever given her ahead against Macron, but one or two have given her ahead against a Socialist, Green or Unsubdued candidate, which would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.

By total contrast, in the local elections last year, the main winners were mainly independents and coalitions, but the main single parties to win were the Republicans and the Greens. If only people voted the same way they did in the local elections!

*sigh* What can I say? The problem here is that our presidential system is undemocratic.
The Republicans/Greens division seems to me a lot more relevant and representative.

What the poll reflect too is the very disturbing fact that there isn't yet a credible left-wing candidate. I still have some hope, but I don't think we'll get one in 2022. Though stranger things have happened : nobody would have thought of Macron as a serious presidential contender in May 2016.
There has been talk of Anne Hidalgo (the mayor of Paris) running. I have many issues with her, but we could do a lot worse.

Yes, and we have at least three other potential candidates yet to declare: Michel Barnier, Valérie Pécresse and the winner of the Green primary. So we don't even have all the candidates yet; we might even have four more major candidates.

In any case, it might be an idea to have some experts in the field: Thomas Piketty as Minister of the Economy, Aurélien Barrau as Minister of Space, (there was another example I meant put here but then forgot) etc

That could work, on the condition that the expert is left something to work with. Macron tried this to Hulot, but Hulot figured out soon enough that he was there as a publicity stunt.

I'm not sure I buy Piketty as a Minister, though. He's an excellent theoricians, but very short on actual politics. His proposals (UBI, capitals gains tax, universal capital grants) are good, but what the electorate wants is some kind of plan for putting this in practice -- and this, so far, is lacking.

Cool points AFAICT ATM

[MacAnDàil]

Having checked the surveys from May 2016, Macron wasn't even remotely considered as a candidate at that point, and when he did start to be considered the following month, he was at a respectable but unwinnable 12%. At least two non-declared candidates, Jadot and Hidalgo, could be said to have a headstart on him in that they are considered by surveys already.

[Ares Land]

Yes, and we have at least three other potential candidates yet to declare: Michel Barnier, Valérie Pécresse and the winner of the Green primary. So we don't even have all the candidates yet; we might even have four more major candidates.

I don't see the point of Barnier and Pécresse being candidates. How exactly are they supposed to differ from Macron?
I'll be glad to see them run though. Edouard Philippe can run too, I dig the cool beard.

(For outsiders: Edouard Philippe is our previous prime minister, generally well-liked. It helps that he has an air of gravitas about him, and also a cool beard. The others are from les Républicains but generally centrists not very different from Macron.)

I don't think any of these will run though. Macron's party LREM, isn't so much a party as an ad-hoc Macron vehicle designed to grant him a presidential majority. It's not working very well. I think Macron will eventually coopt it as his majority (negotiations seem to be underway to give a consolation prize for the presidential hopeful - Pécresse may end up Prime Minister). The right wing can either accept it or go kill their careers with the RN. So they will accept it.
Of course this means that Macron abandons all pretenses of being both right-wing and left-wing. But no one believes that anymore, if any ever did.


The left has a window for getting its shit together. It's a tiny window, but a window nonetheless. I hope the fact that we're now talking about, well, a fucking coup, gives them a wake-up call.

[Raphael]

Relatedly, your post reminds me of a bit I saw in the newspaper yesterday:

Apocrypha of the week: In 1815 the Paris Moniteur newspaper reported Napoleon Bonaparte’s flight from exile on Elba and his return to power and glory. March 9: The monster has escaped from the place of his banishment. March 10: The Corsican ogre has landed at Cape Juan. March 12: The monster has actually advanced as far as Grenoble. March 18: The usurper has ventured to approach within 60 hours’ march of the capital. March 19: Bonaparte is advancing by forced marches, but it is impossible for him to reach Paris. March 21: The Emperor Napoleon is at Fontainebleau. March 22: Yesterday evening His Majesty the Emperor made his public entry and arrived at the Tuileries. Nothing can exceed the universal joy.

Sadly, this piece of apocrypha turns out to be, well, apocryphal,

Oh, now I'm sorely disappointed.

[MacAnDàil]

Yes, and we have at least three other potential candidates yet to declare: Michel Barnier, Valérie Pécresse and the winner of the Green primary. So we don't even have all the candidates yet; we might even have four more major candidates.

I don't see the point of Barnier and Pécresse being candidates. How exactly are they supposed to differ from Macron?
I'll be glad to see them run though. Edouard Philippe can run too, I dig the cool beard.

(For outsiders: Edouard Philippe is our previous prime minister, generally well-liked. It helps that he has an air of gravitas about him, and also a cool beard. The others are from les Républicains but generally centrists not very different from Macron.)

I don't think any of these will run though. Macron's party LREM, isn't so much a party as an ad-hoc Macron vehicle designed to grant him a presidential majority. It's not working very well. I think Macron will eventually coopt it as his majority (negotiations seem to be underway to give a consolation prize for the presidential hopeful - Pécresse may end up Prime Minister). The right wing can either accept it or go kill their careers with the RN. So they will accept it.
Of course this means that Macron abandons all pretenses of being both right-wing and left-wing. But no one believes that anymore, if any ever did.


The left has a window for getting its shit together. It's a tiny window, but a window nonetheless. I hope the fact that we're now talking about, well, a fucking coup, gives them a wake-up call.

You're right about that last point.

Barnier is opposed to EM-LR alliances, so I certainly don't see him supporting Macron from the first round:
https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/l- ... 3-mai-2021

Choosing Edouard Philippe, former LR, as Prime Minister when he was first elected may already have given the game away of Macron being right wing.

[MacAnDàil]

Woah. Barnier is proposing zero immigration for five years: https://www.politico.eu/article/michel- ... ut-pledge/ Seriously. More immigration restriction than the National Rally.
Yet again the same awful aping of the far right’s ideas.
To properly counter the far-right, you should either talk about other subjects or offer better solutions to the same problems, or preferably a lot of both. Especially if you manage to come up with exciting popular policies.
If you just adopt the far-right’s ideas, you’re not countering the far-right, you’re becoming them. You’re also giving the impression that the problem with the far-right is not their ideas, but the idea that they are not bureaucrats, which is not exactly an idea to get people excited about.

Relatedly, I just bought a book called ’La grande confusion’ by Philippe Corcuff, about far-right-ising of French politics. And I’m participating in the online platforms of Anne Hidalgo (https://ideesencommun.org/) and the Ecologists (https://projet.lesecologistes.fr/).

[Ares Land]

Woah. Barnier is proposing zero immigration for five years: https://www.politico.eu/article/michel- ... ut-pledge/ Seriously. More immigration restriction than the National Rally.

Oh Christ, what an asshole. And to thint that creature was several times on the European commission...

And I’m participating in the online platforms of Anne Hidalgo (https://ideesencommun.org/) and the Ecologists (https://projet.lesecologistes.fr/).

Oh, thanks for sharing this! I just joined.

[MacAnDàil]

Cool!

By the way, I finally got around to starting the petition, after much procrastination: https://www.change.org/p/28911101/previ ... d=politics

[Ares Land]

Oh, cool! I can't see the petition (yet?) though.

[MacAnDàil]

That's odd because I have no problem going back to it. Perhaps you need to connect on another device?

[Ares Land]

I already tried that

I get Vous n'avez pas les droits pour modifier cette pétition, no matter what device I use.

[MacAnDàil]

I don't know what happened. I can't get back to it now myself. I expect I missed a final step. I'll sort that out this following week hopefully.