Raphael wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:53 pm
Interesting information. English- and German language news outlets seem to report mainly that the protestors are all about opposing high fuel taxes, which would make them sort of right-wing, or, at most, people who might see themselves as left-wing but haven't really noticed what the left is to a large extent about these days. Your information, on the other hand, places them clearly on the left side of the political spectrum.
It's hard to say, really. Frankly I had them as yet another right-wing protest; it started out pretty similar to the 2013 Bonnets rouge red caps movement (makes you wonder what the next mass protests will be called. The pink balaclavas? The yellow turbans? Er, maybe not that one.)
Some of their "representatives" are clearly far-right; one of them has demanded that general de Villiers (a former chief of staff) take over and of course, another is supposedly "psychic", others are really into conspiracy theories.
The main difficulty is that the movement rejects violently the idea of "representatives" and the yellow vests are pretty adamantly apolitical.
Lists of demands, and comments from random yellow vests place them firmly on the Left (frankly, it's pretty much Mélenchon's electoral platform. Which is pretty suspicious in itself!)
So all of this can be pretty confusing.
Myself, I don't think it is that confusing, though.
While Macron is supposedly a centrist, or even left-wing (!), he's clearly a pretty traditional conservative, into supply-side policies and trickle-down economics. So it's not really a surprise that people opposing him would support traditional, left-wing policies.
It's not really all about the oil, either. Or the environment. People don't care about fuel prices that much, and are usually in favour of environmental policies. The real problem is that the taxes were really not about the environment, but about balancing the budget and they disproportionally affect working-class people!
So what happens next?
The treatment Macron got while trying to talk to protesters last night is a bad sign: French people can be pretty rude, but we don't habitually call the President a bastard and a son of a bitch to his face.
The government has announced a "moratoire", that is a moratorium (it's just as pretentious in French as it is in English). The tax hikes are suspended for six months -- and the energy prices will be fixed for the same duration (which is something the government can't actually do, but, hey, whatever).
The consensus is that it's too little too late.
But it might work for the time being; not that the protesters will be convinced, but there could be a silent majority getting sick over the violence.
Or maybe it'll get even worse over the weekend. I really have no idea.
In the long run, I'm sure Macron is fucked.
It's pretty clear that most French are not interested in a Thatcherite reform package, no matter what colour you paint it. Conservatives - who are interested - won't trust Macron: he's forever tainted with the brush of illegitimacy from beating Fillon, and now it's clear he's not good at law and order. Macronists' contempt for working class people has grown to disgusting levels and that's not going to end well for them.
The real opposition could well be between France Insoumise and the far-right now, with Macron crushed in between.
Macron was elected on a platform of "I'm not Le Pen and Mélenchon is scary too" but a year and a half in, the economy still shows no sign of recovery, taxes are higher, and violent revolution is now a possibility. (A remote possibility, sure, but the fact that it's even considered a risk is unprecedented).