War in the Middle East, again

[Raphael]

Well, Netanyahu took part in a campaign of hate that ended up turning one of his political opponents into a martyr - and it didn't hurt Netanyahu's own career all that much.

Wait, what are you referring to?

The Rabin assassination, and the incitement leading up to it, eventually ending with Netanyahu's first stint as Prime Minister.

[bradrn]

Well, Netanyahu took part in a campaign of hate that ended up turning one of his political opponents into a martyr - and it didn't hurt Netanyahu's own career all that much.

Wait, what are you referring to?

The Rabin assassination, and the incitement leading up to it, eventually ending with Netanyahu's first stint as Prime Minister.

Hmm. But, for all his current horribleness, I doubt he ever actually wanted Rabin to actually be assassinated.

[rotting bones]

Now, maybe its just me, but that made me think "wait, of all the possible Israeli politicians who could possibly be unaware of the concept of a martyr - Bibi's the one??" oi vey.

Americans wanted him alive to legitimize Iran's surrender the way they used Emperor Hirohito. On the other hand, the Supreme Leader's successor candidates are reputed to be incompetent. There is strategic value for Iran's enemies in letting them make the calls.

[rotting bones]

Other updates:

Israel is circulating false rumors that a Shia cleric issued a fatwa for the murder of Netanyahu and Trump. For a while, I was hopeful that Israel was dissuaded by the Iranian missile damage from restarting the war anytime soon, but that's not what this guy says: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4hUgfHB5us

Iran has begun to build a modern air defense system with Chinese help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIa0NsSutOA Iran has now left GPS: https://youtu.be/BQb_hQalexY They think it was used to target people.

Reportedly, Evangelicals loved Trump's warmongering: https://dianabutlerbass.substack.com/p/ ... ic-ecstasy

Also, the Western-allied Islamist government in Syria is massacring minorities. Who could have foreseen it?

---

Misc analyses:

1. Marxist analyses from the multipolarity school (AFAICT anti-Americanism regardless of individual welfare): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwH780cEcEQ (Extra: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DEXReFGb24)

2. Conservative analyses: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCk_1BE6oWY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scJ-WaBAzow

---

(Trigger warning: Ben-Gvir propaganda contains Islamophobia. And yet, Islamophobes never mention the one argument that carries the most weight with me: These days, the loudest of both Sunni and Shia scholars ban chess. To be crystal clear, the Israeli Jewish far left sounds nothing like Ben-Gvir.)

You know, I used to think Ben-Gvir's theorists are marginalized in Israel. However, given that 58% of the Israeli right has a positive opinion of Ben-Gvir, and his theorists were right about Israel's plans to ramp up attacks in Syria (I don't know if this Stanford graduate understands that Hezbollah is Shia) and Iran, I can't help wondering what else they were right about.

Annexing Jordan? https://youtu.be/O60hEttZwPk

Genociding the Houthis and probably the people around them? https://rumble.com/v6tghst-jonathan-pol ... mbies.html

The tweets about turning Iran into a place like Lebanon, where they can bomb at will?

Attacking Egypt? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn4dzHfc8Tw

...

Not that these individuals are particularly credible. A rabbi involved in the Noahide movement and a disgraced criminal spy (assuming this is the same person). I'm sure the attacks won't be as extreme as their plans, and they weren't in Syria.

(I'm not Jewish, but wearing tefillin while planning genocide looks inappropriate to me given what Rambam said about them. Maybe genocide doesn't feel hateful when you're a sociopath.)

[rotting bones]

Not ominous at all: https://youtu.be/6F4i2JEbhF8

[Raphael]

Not ominous at all: https://youtu.be/6F4i2JEbhF8

What is "ANR News"?

[rotting bones]

Not ominous at all: https://youtu.be/6F4i2JEbhF8

What is "ANR News"?

I assumed it had to be Iranian propaganda. IIRC Israel has done this before. Why is Iran increasing tensions? Will they attack first this time?

[bradrn]

The hostages have all been released!!

[Ares Land]

The hostages have all been released!!

That's the best news we've heard from the Middle East in a long time.

[bradrn]

The hostages have all been released!!

That's the best news we've heard from the Middle East in a long time.

Yes, agreed! Let’s hope the good news continues.

[Torco]

Nevermind that by reasonable estimates a hundred thousand people from an ethnic minority lie dead after two million of them were bombed for two years, the better news is not that the indiscriminate bombing of said two millions will possibly stop, but rather that 20 hostages from the dominant ethnicity are released?

this is grim math. at the base of it could imaginably be that the release of the hostages might stop what me and others call the genocide, but still.

[bradrn]

Nevermind that by reasonable estimates a hundred thousand people from an ethnic minority lie dead after two million of them were bombed for two years, the better news is not that the indiscriminate bombing of said two millions will possibly stop, but rather that 20 hostages from the dominant ethnicity are released?

Oh, I consider both of those to be excellent news; no dispute about that!

[Ares Land]

Nevermind that by reasonable estimates a hundred thousand people from an ethnic minority lie dead after two million of them were bombed for two years, the better news is not that the indiscriminate bombing of said two millions will possibly stop, but rather that 20 hostages from the dominant ethnicity are released?

this is grim math. at the base of it could imaginably be that the release of the hostages might stop what me and others call the genocide, but still.

I don't really get you here; The hostages are innocent -- isn't it good news that innocent people are released? That doesn't diminish the extent of crimes in Gaza.
It'll be great news if the massacres in Gaza cease for good but to be honest, I don't dare hope it's actually over yet.

[Travis B.]

Nevermind that by reasonable estimates a hundred thousand people from an ethnic minority lie dead after two million of them were bombed for two years, the better news is not that the indiscriminate bombing of said two millions will possibly stop, but rather that 20 hostages from the dominant ethnicity are released?

this is grim math. at the base of it could imaginably be that the release of the hostages might stop what me and others call the genocide, but still.

I don't really get you here; The hostages are innocent -- isn't it good news that innocent people are released? That doesn't diminish the extent of crimes in Gaza.
It'll be great news if the massacres in Gaza cease for good but to be honest, I don't dare hope it's actually over yet.

I think what Torco is pointing out is that in the media more emphasis has been put on the 20 hostages that have been released than that the genocide may come to an end.

Personally, while I do consider it a good thing that the hostages have been released -- they are innocent people after all -- I would consider it a better thing if the genocide is actually coming to an end.

Now, I don't like Torco's rhetoric about how the former hostages are of the 'dominant ethnicity', as to me innocent people are innocent people regardless of their ethnicity, and being born into the wrong ethnicity makes you no less of an innocent person. But I assume you guys would expect me to say this, so I will not belabor the point.

[Torco]

travis is correct, what i find grim is not thinking that the release of 20 israeli hostages is a good thing; they *are* civilians, after all, what i find grim is the notion that 20 innocents be released is the better news, not that two million people may be free of the persistent, indiscriminate, and genocidal attacks the state of israel is engaged in.

this one to a 100.000 ratio is what makes the dominant ethnicity a relevant feature of the situation. both things are true, the 20 are noncombatants [and thus not valid targets of military action] and that they're of the dominant ethnicity, while the two million are also civilians (or at least the vast majority of them are) and of the nondominant ethnicity.

of course, in a hardly surprising move, the ceasefire has already been violated by israel.