Elections in various countries

[Ares Land]

In my very, very left-wing neighbourhood Mélenchon's campaign is very, very active and I expect him to do very well. But it's not a very representative kind of place I'm afraid.

I have very conflicted feelings about Mélenchon. On one hand, I'd much, much prefer a Mélenchon vs. Macron second round (it'd be a much more constructive debate besides getting rid of the fascism). On the other hand, I strongly disagree with him on Europe and foreign affairs -- which are the president's real job!

Something of a paradox: I may well vote for Mélenchon in the first round. But if, by an extraordinary accident, the second round finalists were Mélenchon and Macron, I'd probably abstain.

[MacAnDàil]

I understand. Perhaps the best scenario out of the most likely ones (although we are entirely lacking legislative polls about two months away - shows how too much things are focussed on the president and not the deputies) is Macron v Mélenchon in the second round, Macron winning by a small margin, leaving enough motivation and momentum for FI to won a majority or close to itin the legislatives leading to the first cohabitation since the changeover to 5 year presidencies.

[Ares Land]

So, this is the big day...

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There actually was a line at the voting station today, which is somehow unusual. Participation might be a bit higher than expected.

A lot of people seem to be applying the tactic I outlined above, naming voting for Mélenchon in the hopes of disqualifying Le Pen from the second round; whether it'll work remains to be seen! **

[bradrn]

And… the Australian federal election has finally, finally been called, for May 21. That is to say, we will have to endure six weeks more of campaigning before we are put out of our misery by someone winning the damn thing. Cue the baby-kissing. God help us all.

Anyway, there have been a number of new scandals since my last post about the last set of scandals. First and foremost: the rain. For forty days and forty nights, the rain has fallen upon the earth of eastern Australia; and every town that we have made in its way was practically destroyed from off the face of the earth. Lismore flooded to 14.4 m (2 metres above its previous record), then flooded again to ~12 m just a few weeks later. Sydney received more rain in three months than its entire average annual rainfall. Truly, this was a flood of Biblical proportions. (One enterprising man asked around for a tape measure in cubits. Apparently he’s building something.)

You may ask: what, exactly, did the government do about this? And the answer is: they did exactly the same as they do every time a crisis comes; that is, absolutely nothing whatsoever. Morrison in particular has perfected the tortoise-like manoeuvre of retreating inside his shell whenever he might be remotely challenged. Thus, instead of actual action, we were treated to scenes of neighbours desperately trying to rescue neighbours as they were trapped under their own roofs by the floodwaters. The human spirit is a commendable and wonderful thing, but one can’t help but feel that external help might have led to somewhat less trauma.

Secondly: the preselection issues. I’m not quite sure I understand these thoroughly, but the issue seems to have proceeded roughly as follows. Around the beginning of this year, the NSW division of the Liberal party attempted to refuse to re-preselect some particularly moderate current MPs. This was stymied by the federal Liberals by the simple expedient of MP Alex Hawke refusing to attend the relevant meetings, because for some reason his presence is required to review nominations. Instead, Morrison attempted to override the NSW Liberals’ preferences by preselecting the current MPs as ‘captain’s picks’ (as it’s called here). This was challenged by now former Liberal party member Matthew Camenzuli, who launched a legal challenge, leaving several safe Liberal seats without any preselected Liberal candidate. The challenge actually made it all the way to the High Court, who threw it out saying they have no jurisdiction in internal party matters such as these. The end result of all this is, of course, that the relevant seats now have exactly the same candidates as are already elected to those seats, with Mr. Camenzuli having been kicked out of the party for his troubles.

Not that infighting and backstabbing are limited to the Liberals, of course — Labor is perhaps even more famous for it. And it’s been on full display recently! The catalyst in this case was the tragic death of Senator Kimberley Kitching of a heart attack. She was apparently much loved by everyone on both sides of politics (or at least that’s what they said after she died), and was the key person in getting Magnitsky-style laws passed here. At her funeral, however, her husband accused three senior and much-respected Labor senators of being ‘mean girls’ who subjected Kitching to constant bullying. This was naturally denied by everyone involved, and especially Albanese, who rejected the allegations so strongly that he refused to even consider opening an investigation.

And then the whole thing boiled over when Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (a right-wing Liberal senator) used the allegations as a springboard to attack her own party, and in particular Morrison, calling him ‘not fit to be a prime minister … an autocrat, a bully who has no moral compass’. She also mentioned that Michael Towke, who was originally preselected in 2007 to the seat of Cook before Morrison won the seat by overturning his preselection, had signed a statutory declaration several years ago saying that Morrison argued for his overturning on the basis that ‘we can’t have a Lebanese person in Cook’. Morrison has denied the allegations in the strongest possible terms, though curiously enough he hasn’t signed any sort of statutory declaration just yet. (But as soon as he needs to, he says…)

In any case, this has not been a fun campaign. I am now utterly disgusted by both parties, though perhaps slightly more so for Liberal than for Labor. I suspect I’ll end up voting for an independent candidate.

[Travis B.]

To me the most important thing is voting for whoever, no matter how awful they may be individually, will ensure that fascists and conservatives will not win, unless a vote against the latter is practically a vote for the former, where then I would be willing to grudgingly vote for the latter (luckily I live in a country where this is mostly not the case). All other considerations are irrelevant to me, as voting for whomever I might personally like may very well help conservatives and/or fascists. Protest votes, or simply not voting, in particular are an awful idea, as they almost inevitably result in this.

[Ares Land]

A lot of people seem to be applying the tactic I outlined above, naming voting for Mélenchon in the hopes of disqualifying Le Pen from the second round; whether it'll work remains to be seen!

So it looks like most people on the left did try that tactic... It didn't work. Mélenchon got a very good score.. but the finalists are Le Pen and Macron just as expected.

I'll vote for Macron, but I'll admit the prospect of yet again voting for a guy I despise just to keep the fascists out does not make me happy.

[Yiuel Raumbesrairc]

So it looks like most people on the left did try that tactic... It didn't work. Mélenchon got a very good score.. but the finalists are Le Pen and Macron just as expected.

I'll vote for Macron, but I'll admit the prospect of yet again voting for a guy I despise just to keep the fascists out does not make me happy.

Due to the number of French citizens in Quebec nowadays, we've been following the craziness of it all. I feel your pain. Macron's extreme-centrism is ugly and definitely not likable to me either.

Were you a Mélenchonisant? Sincerely, if I had a right to vote, I wouldn't know which one I'd go for. I know that I'm probably closest to Mélenchon, but I dunno.

It's disturbingly funny how Zemmour's participation and subsequent fall due to his lackluster opinion about the Ukraine invasion made mellowed down Le Pen enough to make her seem decent...

[Travis B.]

Any French person (children aside) who does not vote for Macron at this point is either a fascist or a fool or both, no matter how odious Macron may happen to be.

[Ares Land]

Were you a Mélenchonisant? Sincerely, if I had a right to vote, I wouldn't know which one I'd go for. I know that I'm probably closest to Mélenchon, but I dunno.

I voted for Mélenchon, but I really don't like him or his party that much.
As it happens, there was really no candidate I liked that year and an opportunity to try and kick out Le Pen from the first round.

Any French person (children aside) who does not vote for Macron at this point is either a fascist or a fool or both, no matter how odious Macron may happen to be.

I certainly agree with you; the sad fact is that most French voters don't.

We got a lot of people on the left who are completely convinced that Macron is a fascist and so dangerous that there's not much difference with Le Pen, and quite a few who feel Le Pen might even be an improvement.
The sad thing, of course, is that they have a good chance of being proven wrong, in a very brutal fashion.

Another thing is that the various Le Pens have been around for so long people have trouble seeing them as a real threat anymore.

[Travis B.]

Any French person (children aside) who does not vote for Macron at this point is either a fascist or a fool or both, no matter how odious Macron may happen to be.

I certainly agree with you; the sad fact is that most French voters don't.

We got a lot of people on the left who are completely convinced that Macron is a fascist and so dangerous that there's not much difference with Le Pen, and quite a few who feel Le Pen might even be an improvement.
The sad thing, of course, is that they have a good chance of being proven wrong, in a very brutal fashion.

Another thing is that the various Le Pens have been around for so long people have trouble seeing them as a real threat anymore.

Anyone who doesn't see that there is a difference between a neoliberal and a fascist is an idiot. Anyone who is going a make a protest vote or non-vote is also an idiot. Anyone who believes in voting for the other person just because they don't like the incumbent regardless of how truly awful the alternative actually is is an idiot.

[Civil War Bugle]

I generally agree with Travis as far as this election goes. I think I would be pretty disgruntled if I were French right now. I was reading an editorial today which endorsed Macron in the practical sense of what the author suggested for French voters to do in this particular election but which noted a line he uttered in maybe 2016 or thereabouts about how France needs to avoid a point ten years in the future where someone like Le Pen is still as influential as she is... and here we are, halfway to that point, and Macron hasn't successfully marginalized her, so what's up Mac? [Editorialist's spin, which I agree with.]

It would be so nice if we could get candidates in our respective countries who are within the boundaries of sanity, rather than one guy more or less within the boundaries vs the Le Pens, Orbans, and Trumps of the world.

[Ares Land]

I was reading an editorial today which endorsed Macron in the practical sense of what the author suggested for French voters to do in this particular election but which noted a line he uttered in maybe 2016 or thereabouts about how France needs to avoid a point ten years in the future where someone like Le Pen is still as influential as she is... and here we are, halfway to that point, and Macron hasn't successfully marginalized her, so what's up Mac? [Editorialist's spin, which I agree with.]

Macron promised to marginalize the far right back in 2017. I think he promised a lot more than anyone can deliver.

We're dealing with a lot of people (a third of the electorate) who are absolutely convinced outlawing Arabs and black people is the solution to all their problems. Plus, I should add, an unknow proportion of the left-wing electorate who think it's okay to throw minorities under the bus as long as they get to righteously stick it to the man.

There's nothing you can do with these people. We'll to have to work around the far-right for a long, long time. At least a generation.

I should add the Macron was elected in 2017 on a platform of not being Le Pen and if he's reelected in 2022, it will be on a platform of not being Le Pen.
Worst case scenario, he's not reelected and Le Pen makes such an horrid mess of things he'll be remembered with a fair amount of nostalgia.
At no point does he have any incentive to get rid of the fascists.

[Travis B.]

Plus, I should add, an unknow proportion of the left-wing electorate who think it's okay to throw minorities under the bus as long as they get to righteously stick it to the man.

Aiding fascists just so one can have the satisfaction of self-righteously sticking it to the man is unforgivable, especially because these people ought to know better.

[Moose-tache]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people. Therefore, going into the runoff he has walked back a retirement reform so that he will be more popular with old people. Brilliant strategy. Well done. Retirement ages are like minimum wages that never adjust for inflation, but in reverse.

One of the problems with idiotic centrist drivel like this is that it sets the bar very low for populist right wing economics. Will Le Pen's tax cuts for under 30s actually make life better for the youth? No, because Le Pen's France will be underwater before they can reach 45 or whatever France's retirement age is. But she only has to seem like she might help, maybe, if she had the chance. Meanwhile every boil on Macron's record shows up in stark relief because it's a real thing that happened and there's pictures of it.

And the worst part is, you know none of this will discredit the next wave of charlatans. If Le Pen succeeds in turning France into the opening song of Les Miserables, it will all be forgotten when the next con artist comes along and offers the under 30s a tax cut.

[Travis B.]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people. Therefore, going into the runoff he has walked back a retirement reform so that he will be more popular with old people. Brilliant strategy. Well done. Retirement ages are like minimum wages that never adjust for inflation, but in reverse.

One of the problems with idiotic centrist drivel like this is that it sets the bar very low for populist right wing economics. Will Le Pen's tax cuts for under 30s actually make life better for the youth? No, because Le Pen's France will be underwater before they can reach 45 or whatever France's retirement age is. But she only has to seem like she might help, maybe, if she had the chance. Meanwhile every boil on Macron's record shows up in stark relief because it's a real thing that happened and there's pictures of it.

And the worst part is, you know none of this will discredit the next wave of charlatans. If Le Pen succeeds in turning France into the opening song of Les Miserables, it will all be forgotten when the next con artist comes along and offers the under 30s a tax cut.

The big problem is people who believe that fascists are an acceptable option provided they make the right promises in the first place, rather than voting for whoever is not a fascist who is most likely to win in the first place to keep the fascist from winning regardless of who promises what.

[zompist]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people.

Kind of, but that's because Mélenchon won among young people. Here's the breakdown:

18-24: Mélenchon 34%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 17%
25-34: Mélenchon 31, Macron 22, Le Pen 27
35-49: Le Pen 29, Macron 22, Mélenchon 20
50-64: Le Pen 29, Macron 25, Mélenchon 20
65+: Macron 41, Le Pen 17, Mélenchon 11

It's the middle-aged who really like Le Pen, les bâtards.

Though we could also say that Macron + Mélenchon outpolls Le Pen at all ages:
18-24: 79 to 17; 25-34: 53 to 27; 35-49: 42 to 29, 50-64: 45 to 29, 65+: 62 to 17.

[Travis B.]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people.

Kind of, but that's because Mélenchon won among young people. Here's the breakdown:

18-24: Mélenchon 34%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 17%
25-34: Mélenchon 31, Macron 22, Le Pen 27
35-49: Le Pen 29, Macron 22, Mélenchon 20
50-64: Le Pen 29, Macron 25, Mélenchon 20
65+: Macron 41, Le Pen 17, Mélenchon 11

It's the middle-aged who really like Le Pen, les bâtards.

Though we could also say that Macron + Mélenchon outpolls Le Pen at all ages:
18-24: 79 to 17; 25-34: 53 to 27; 35-49: 42 to 29, 50-64: 45 to 29, 65+: 62 to 17.

Now we just have to get those Mélenchon voters to hold their noses and vote for Macron...

[Yiuel Raumbesrairc]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people.

Kind of, but that's because Mélenchon won among young people. Here's the breakdown:

18-24: Mélenchon 34%, Macron 25%, Le Pen 17%
25-34: Mélenchon 31, Macron 22, Le Pen 27
35-49: Le Pen 29, Macron 22, Mélenchon 20
50-64: Le Pen 29, Macron 25, Mélenchon 20
65+: Macron 41, Le Pen 17, Mélenchon 11

It's the middle-aged who really like Le Pen, les bâtards.

Though we could also say that Macron + Mélenchon outpolls Le Pen at all ages:
18-24: 79 to 17; 25-34: 53 to 27; 35-49: 42 to 29, 50-64: 45 to 29, 65+: 62 to 17.

Tabarnack, the people my age...

[Civil War Bugle]

I was reading an editorial today which endorsed Macron in the practical sense of what the author suggested for French voters to do in this particular election but which noted a line he uttered in maybe 2016 or thereabouts about how France needs to avoid a point ten years in the future where someone like Le Pen is still as influential as she is... and here we are, halfway to that point, and Macron hasn't successfully marginalized her, so what's up Mac? [Editorialist's spin, which I agree with.]

Macron promised to marginalize the far right back in 2017. I think he promised a lot more than anyone can deliver.

We're dealing with a lot of people (a third of the electorate) who are absolutely convinced outlawing Arabs and black people is the solution to all their problems. Plus, I should add, an unknow proportion of the left-wing electorate who think it's okay to throw minorities under the bus as long as they get to righteously stick it to the man.

There's nothing you can do with these people. We'll to have to work around the far-right for a long, long time. At least a generation.

I should add the Macron was elected in 2017 on a platform of not being Le Pen and if he's reelected in 2022, it will be on a platform of not being Le Pen.
Worst case scenario, he's not reelected and Le Pen makes such an horrid mess of things he'll be remembered with a fair amount of nostalgia.
At no point does he have any incentive to get rid of the fascists.

I perhaps could have been clearer in that I, and I think the editorial I mention, recognize that it's a bigger problem than one person can solve, but I think one problem with Macron is that he adopts a tone as though he will solve it. I prefer him by a wide mile over Le Pen and other such people but here we are.

[Moose-tache]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people.

Kind of, but that's because Mélenchon won among young people.

Oh, I'm aware. I think Macron is likely to win the runoff. But we should not assume that Melenchon votes are just STV Macron votes, so I wouldn't say that Melenchon's good showing among young voters means that Macron will do well with that demographic in the runoff. I mean probably, but it's not guaranteed.

The fact that every French election turns into a near-miss with Armageddon is already kind of disturbing, but maybe that says more about the two-round system than the volatility of French politics.