Re: Russia invades Ukraine
Posted: Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:52 am
You must have misread me - I said the number of fence-sitters is diminished. So exactly what you're saying.
You must have misread me - I said the number of fence-sitters is diminished. So exactly what you're saying.
NATO made it crystal clear for years that they won't accept a country that has territorial conflicts. That's why neither Georgia nor Ukraine will be able to join as long as Russia or Russian-allied separatists hold part of the territory. In order to join NATO, Ukraine would have to accept the Russian annexation of Crimea and the independence / Russian annexation of the Donbass republics. Everybody knew that, including Putin and Zelenskyy; it was what Scholz referred to shortly before the invasion when he said that NATO membership wasn't anything realistic in the near-term. So NATO would really have to change its policy here to make Ukrainian membership possible.rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:49 pm I'm surprised. Wasn't Ukraine more likely to join NATO than before the invasion? I thought Putin would have to turn Ukraine into a failed state to get what he wanted.
The second sentence doesn't make sense to me; can you explain? Which "civilisations" choose to be hungry?rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 7:13 pm Although values have some importance, I don't like the recent tendency to emphasize them at the expense of self-interest. There is no war between civilizations where people choose to be hungry and civilizations where they don't.
The purely economic situation wasn't bad before the war - Russia had a COVID slump like most other countries and was recovering nicely; oil prices (which are important for the Russian budget) were going up long before the war started. The reasons for Putin's falling popularity are complex - mostly growing repression and corrruption and a general sense that Russia doesn't have a perspective as a modern society. The problem isn't fear of hunger or poverty, but of a lack of perspectives for personal growth and development. It's no coincidence that the supporters of Navalny are mostly young, urban professionals - they feel most stifled by the current system. These issues won't be solved by subduing or annexing Ukraine, but Putin cannot solve them without dismantling his own system. That may have contributed to a sense of him feeling cornered.MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:38 am The economic status quo was bad in both countries. Just having grain is not sufficient to fix Russia's economic crisis. Putin's popularity has been in free fall recently: https://www.statista.com/statistics/102 ... c-figures/
Well, but Ukraine letting Donbass (and not to forget Crimea) officially go is really, really, really unlikely to happen, except if Ukraine gets clobbered to near-extinction by Russia, in which case Ukraine would become a satellite of Russia which also wouldn't apply for NATO Membership anymore. If all Putin wanted was Ukraine not getting into NATO, he could just have sat tight, keeping Crimea occupied and supporting the separatists in Donbass. So either he really believed that NATO would disregard its own principles and admit Ukraine despite the territorial disputes, or potential NATO Membership wasn't more than a pretext.Moose-tache wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:28 am Travis and hwhatting: On the topic of Ukraine not being eligible for NATO membership, the main problem is of course ongoing border disputes. But guess who's in charge of Ukraine's territorial claims? Imagine a scenario in which Ukraine says "Let us in," and NATO says "not while you're fighting Russian-backed separatists," and Ukraine responds with "OK, we relinguish our claims to Donbas. The cease-fire line is now an international border." That would be catastrophic for Putin. Not only would Ukraine have a chance of joining NATO, but Donbas would suddenly lose all of its strategic usefulness in damaging the government in Kyiv.
That was rottingbones, not me.hwhatting wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:10 amThe purely economic situation wasn't bad before the war - Russia had a COVID slump like most other countries and was recovering nicely; oil prices (which are important for the Russian budget) were going up long before the war started. The reasons for Putin's falling popularity are complex - mostly growing repression and corrruption and a general sense that Russia doesn't have a perspective as a modern society. The problem isn't fear of hunger or poverty, but of a lack of perspectives for personal growth and development. It's no coincidence that the supporters of Navalny are mostly young, urban professionals - they feel most stifled by the current system. These issues won't be solved by subduing or annexing Ukraine, but Putin cannot solve them without dismantling his own system. That may have contributed to a sense of him feeling cornered.MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Mon Feb 28, 2022 8:38 am The economic status quo was bad in both countries. Just having grain is not sufficient to fix Russia's economic crisis. Putin's popularity has been in free fall recently: https://www.statista.com/statistics/102 ... c-figures/
Are you saying Zelenskyy can't remain in power if he surrenders territorial claims no matter how bad the crisis gets?
My point is, nowadays class struggle is commonly misinterpreted as struggles between "civilizations". The ridiculousness of that sentence was the intended sense.
It is well known that the US works very hard to keep oil prices low. In this case, I was arguing that the critical factor is not material resource but popularity of the figurehead in charge of the system. (Under the hood, this system looks analogous to a Roman oligarchy to me for both Russia and the US.)
The Russian economy was uncompetitive and overly dependent on energy revenues before the COVID crisis, the sanctions that existed prior to the recent invasion led to a considerable loss of wealth, income was relatively low, etc.hwhatting wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:10 am The purely economic situation wasn't bad before the war - Russia had a COVID slump like most other countries and was recovering nicely;
Hamas is currently not in power. If you don't think that will last in an independent Palestine, there was a 2014 coup in Ukraine too with considerable pro-Putin vs. Neo-Nazi involvement, remember?Moose-tache wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:28 am rotting bones: The Palestinian people are certainly not the problem. I’ve taught Palestinian children, and I can confirm that they are neither more nor less annoying than children who have their own state. The problem is, as Zompist pointed out, Palestine has a worse record of effective leadership than the Judean People’s Front. The first hurdle to Palestinian independence is having a viable unity government that is not Hamas, and even that basic accomplishment has proved elusive. An independent Palestine has to not just be peopled by non-psychopaths; that’s the easy part. It also needs to be durable enough to withstand temporary waves of reactionary movements, foreign powers who want to use them in geopolitical contests with Israel, and of course great power meddling from Russia, China, and the US. You’ll note these are all criteria on which the US has faltered at some point, and they would be infinitely worse for Palestine.
Good heavens, who said the war was over? If anything it's accelerated, as a frustrated Putin is increasing long-range bombardment.rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 5:52 pm If the war is effectively over, I haven't heard anything to that effect in the past week.
Er, yes it is; it rules the Gaza Strip.Hamas is currently not in power.
Moose-tache did:
Moose-tache wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:16 pm He did it. Putin got what he wanted.War successfully completed. Once they hammer out some formal negotiations everyone can go home."I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a televised interview. "The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia."
IIRC Fatah is still recognized as being in charge of the Palestinian Authority, with a breakaway Hamas Government in the Gaza Strip. Fatah was also in charge of the Unity Government, so why is it so unlikely for them to lead an independent Palestine?
Moose-tache wasn't saying that the war was actually over, but was expressing her opinion that Putin had already achieved his war aims, something which I disagree with because if keeping Ukraine out of NATO was his sole goal, he had already achieved that goal before he started his invasion.rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:25 pmMoose-tache did:
Moose-tache wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:16 pm He did it. Putin got what he wanted.War successfully completed. Once they hammer out some formal negotiations everyone can go home."I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a televised interview. "The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia."
I don't know. "Once they hammer out some formal negotiations everyone can go home," sounds very literal to me.Travis B. wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:31 pm Moose-tache wasn't saying that the war was actually over, but was expressing her opinion that Putin had already achieved his war aims, something which I disagree with because if keeping Ukraine out of NATO was his sole goal, he had already achieved that goal before he started his invasion.
Yes, that's what "it rules the Gaza Strip" means. You said they weren't in power, and they are. The rest of your post I take as being addressed to Moose.rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:25 pmIIRC Fatah is still recognized as being in charge of the Palestinian Authority, with a breakaway Hamas Government in the Gaza Strip.
It should be remembered that de facto rule over some territory does not require any outside recognition thereof. Hamas rules over Gaza despite not being recognized as ruling over such, just like the Republic of China rules over Taiwan despite being formally recognized as such by few nations today, much the less the smattering of "frozen conflicts" after the breakup of the Soviet Union constitute de facto rule despite their typically lacking widespread recognition.zompist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:45 pmYes, that's what "it rules the Gaza Strip" means. You said they weren't in power, and they are. The rest of your post I take as being addressed to Moose.rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:25 pmIIRC Fatah is still recognized as being in charge of the Palestinian Authority, with a breakaway Hamas Government in the Gaza Strip.
"Here I am a barbarian for no-one understands me."rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 5:52 pmPersonally, I don't even believe in the existence of a single civilization. A civilized man is often a barbarian who will kill you if you call him a barbarian.
should we be worried that you think the Gaza Strip could only be ruled by a dictatorship?rotting bones wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 7:25 pmIs there any particular reason that it would be easier for Hamas to establish a dictatorship in the West Bank than for Fatah or a successor party to establish a dictatorship in the Gaza Strip?
aside from by simply existing?Or if the Gaza Strip breaks away from the Palestinian Authority for good, can an independent Gaza Strip do anything to injure Israel all by itself?
Only in the way its been thus far, weathering both illegal settlements and attacks on it (retaliatory and otherwise)
I believe in civilization if you allow me to use paradoxical formulations like: A civilization is exactly what it's not.keenir wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:10 pm "Here I am a barbarian for no-one understands me."
Yeah, I figured either I could use the Classical Greek quote, or use the Gandhi joke about Western Civilization.
or point out that a. there is a difference between "a civilized man" and "a civilization"...and b. if you get killed for just saying "barbarian", theres a whole nother problem taking place.
I have already explained what I want in terms of governance in the Capitalism thread.
Irrelevant. This conversation is about whether Israel should fear an independent Palestine. Israel doesn't care why Hamas is popular as long as Hamas remains committed to wiping Israel off the face of the earth.keenir wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:10 pm as I understand it (from it being explained to me by those who knew more about the subject, people, and local politics than I did), a large % of Hamas' popularity and ability to be elected, is because Hamas provides things that are needed - schools, civic events, garbage cleanup, etc. You know, the things a government is supposed to be able to provide its citizens.
IIRC Hamas is supported by Iran, and Iran is committed to wiping Israel (but not Jews, they insist every single time) off the face of the earth. From online conversations, it sounds to me like even some Far Leftists on the Gaza Strip are committed to wiping Israel off the face of the earth. Not that I completely blame them. It's like the Irish who hate the English.