Zompist Bboard Again

bradrn wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 9:48 am

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 9:45 am Now that's weird.

Why? Two years is too short, four years is too long. Three years is just right.

It makes sense if you turn it upside-down, then Aussie "3" becomes Northern Hemisphere "5". Well, sort of.

alice wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 1:06 pm

bradrn wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 9:48 am

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 9:45 am Now that's weird.

Why? Two years is too short, four years is too long. Three years is just right.

It makes sense if you turn it upside-down, then Aussie "3" becomes Northern Hemisphere "5". Well, sort of.

If you rotate 3, you get something like E, which is the same letter as e, so then you have to hold elections roughly every 2.71828182845904523536028747135266249775724709369995 years.

I like that it rotates which much more important election will overshadow Australia's.

2025: German general election, Australia meanwhile does something
2028: American presidential election, secondarily Australia
2031: Empress Priti I sham election, Australia eats hot dogs on bread
2034: Indian general election, also Australia I guess

But isn't that going to be the case whenever Australia holds their elections unless it's "once in a blue moon" which is the second worst time to hold elections after "never"?

MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:54 am But isn't that going to be the case whenever Australia holds their elections unless it's "once in a blue moon" which is the second worst time to hold elections after "never"?

The point is that it's not the same every time, like if it were on a normal schedule.

Moose-tache wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 4:11 pm

MacAnDàil wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:54 am But isn't that going to be the case whenever Australia holds their elections unless it's "once in a blue moon" which is the second worst time to hold elections after "never"?

The point is that it's not the same every time, like if it were on a normal schedule.

I’m sorry, but we are on a normal schedule. It’s not our fault if everyone else has messed-up timing.

Three years is unusual but I think it's about right. It roughly matches the time at which a government tends to lose steam anyway.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 9:32 am Three years is unusual but I think it's about right.

Thank you for agreeing with me!

So, French legislative elections: we have the full results of the first round. (*)

NUPES is slightly ahead at 26.1%
Ensemble (Macron's coalition. Annoyingly they semi-regularly change the name): 25.81
RN (far-right): 18.7%
LR ('historical' right-wing): 11.31%

Good news: no candidate for Reconquête! (Eric Zemmour's party, far right but somehow even worse than the regular far right) makes it to the second round.

Projections suggest Macron would have a majority (though, just barely); NUPES would have 150-190 members in the Assemblée Nationale which is very good but not enough.
That's very disappointing for Ensemble. They fully expected a clear majority. As far as I can see they're going through the five stages of grief (they're between denial and anger right now.)

I think projections for number of seats and votes in the second round greatly underestimate NUPES. Them getting a majority isn't the most likely scenario, but it's possible.
Generally speaking:

On one hand: the electoral system favors centrists; plus Ensemble can count on LR votes and possibly a government coalition with LR.
On the other hand: Ensemble has done a pretty bad campaign. The government is bogged down in endless SNAFUs and scandals.
They also don't have an electoral platform at all. Their only argument, so far, is that NUPES are 'extremists' and 'far-left', on par with the RN. That's somewhat insulting, and ridiculous.
The clear implication is that any opposition would be painted as 'extremist' and beyond the pale, which is, um, not terribly democratic.

(*) Oh, also, in a pretty childish move, the Ministry of the Interior is claiming Ensemble won because they decided, somehow, that left-wing candidates in the overseas territories don't count as NUPES.

Thank you for the update! Any seats that were already decided in the first round?

Five; four NUPES candidates (all in Paris or the metropolitan area) and one Ensemble candidate.

It's worth noting that NUPES got very, very high scores in the east of Paris (and the north and eastern suburbs.)
There's an interesting paradox btw: people in areas with a high number of immigrants evidently have no problem with immigration. People in areas with little to no immigrants strongly object to it.

Thank you! Yes, I've heard about that paradox, though I don't think it holds true all the time.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:36 am There's an interesting paradox btw: people in areas with a high number of immigrants evidently have no problem with immigration. People in areas with little to no immigrants strongly object to it.

That's explained easily. People who have many immigrants around them know from their own experience that immigration is not a problem and prejudices are wrong.

And, conversely, those people that are prejudiced steer clear of the Modern Babylon.

(Relatively frequently, I get amusing lectures on how I live in an ivory tower and how terrible things really are... in my own neighborhood.)

WeepingElf wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:01 am That's explained easily. People who have many immigrants around them know from their own experience that immigration is not a problem and prejudices are wrong.

That's often the case, but not always. When members of two different communities live in very close contact, it might happen that from time to time, members of each community do things that are perfectly fine by the standards of their own community, but completely wrong by the standards of the other community, and this might lead to an increase in prejudices.

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:13 am (Relatively frequently, I get amusing lectures on how I live in an ivory tower and how terrible things really are... in my own neighborhood.)

Then again, you mentioned on some occasions that you know a number of fascists - are they from your neighborhood, too?

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:16 am That's often the case, but not always. When members of two different communities live in very close contact, it might happen that from time to time, members of each community do things that are perfectly fine by the standards of their own community, but completely wrong by the standards of the other community, and this might lead to an increase in prejudices.

In my experience, the kind of conflict that poor people engage in by themselves is the competition for jobs. The narrative of a conflict of values is usually spread by the elites of every majority community because "They took our jrbs!" is amenable to far left subversion.

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:18 am

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:13 am (Relatively frequently, I get amusing lectures on how I live in an ivory tower and how terrible things really are... in my own neighborhood.)

Then again, you mentioned on some occasions that you know a number of fascists - are they from your neighborhood, too?

Nope. They're either from all-white rural areas or all-white upper-class suburbs.

Raphael wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:16 am That's often the case, but not always. When members of two different communities live in very close contact, it might happen that from time to time, members of each community do things that are perfectly fine by the standards of their own community, but completely wrong by the standards of the other community, and this might lead to an increase in prejudices.

That happens all the time. Apparently people seem to get a more balanced view of things anyway.
(I mean, I'm not terribly happy about veiled women. I also don't think 'we just have to outlaw Islam' is anything but absurd.)

Ares Land wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:34 am Nope. They're either from all-white rural areas or all-white upper-class suburbs.

I'm actually kind of happy to hear that - fascists who live next to the targets of their bigotry are arguably more alarming.

rotting bones wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:24 am In my experience, the kind of conflict that poor people engage in by themselves is the competition for jobs.

Then again, to some extent, every poor person looking for work competes with every other poor person looking for work who lives nearby and has comparable skills and abilities, yet they often seem to see those from other cultural communities as rivals to an extent to which they don't see fellow members of their own cultural communities as rivals.