Elections in various countries

[Raphael]

Thank you for the update, and commiserations!

[MacAnDàil]

The RN got better results than even themselves expected, which is probably partly because some Ensemble politicians misequated RN and NUPES as 'the extremes', while mischaracterising NUPES as the opposite of what it actually is:

NUPES proposes staying in the EU and improving it. Some Ensemble politicians said that they were for Frexit (never mind that some far-right groups actually were for Frexit).

NUPES proposes blocking prices for necessity products. Some Ensemble politicians said that NUPES would lead to spiraling inflation (which we are already having under them).

NUPES proposes introducing a 6th republic to democratise the institutions. Some Ensemble politicians said that the NUPES project would somehow be antirepublican.

[Ares Land]

Another a factor is that the far-right is now a strong and alas, very stable political force. Whereas the left had to be rebuilt from scratch in two months.
All in all the respective performance of both are not too bad.

That said, your analysis is correct. I'm generally getting strong vibes of 'well, sure, they're Nazis... but at least they won't raise the taxes!!)

[MacAnDàil]

Meanwhile, the far right in Sweden increased their vote and politican share the most the other day which meant the centre-left prime minister resigned and the main centre-right gets a go at building a coalition. It seems that the only way it would work is if they include the liberals and get external votes only from the far-right. Anybody else have a take on that?

[Raphael]

My main take on that is that it's pretty bad; I don't know enough about Swedish politics to have more of a take about it.

[Ares Land]

I don't know that much about Sweden.

Immigration and security seem to have been a point of contention is Swedish politics for quite some time now. It was already an issue the only time I went there ca 2009 (I was cautioned against staying in Malmö, which however didn't strike me as a terribly dangerous place)

From what information I could get about it (this didn't get a lot of interest in the media):

• The Social-Democrats taking a harder stance against immigration didn't help any. Which again proves that giving far-right people what they want don't help any; they won't be happy with anything less than fascism.
• I'm told the Stockholm stock exchange reacted very positively to the news. Which means there are people out there who are ready to do anything and ally with anyone to get what they want. (I think the long term goal is to dismantle social-democracy, and if some brown people get beaten up, hey, no big deal.)

[Ares Land]

Oh, more depressing news. The far-right wins the Italian elections.

[Travis B.]

My thought is - how can one be a decent human being and vote for anyone to the right of, say, Angela Merkel...

[Rounin Ryuuji]

Garden-variety doublethink, I imagine.

[Ares Land]

My thought is - how can one be a decent human being and vote for anyone to the right of, say, Angela Merkel...

There's an almost endless list of factors contributing to this(*). But FWIW the official line seems to be that Meloni is 'right of center'. Ha!

We hear a lot about the Italian elections here, being close neighbours and all, geographically and culturally. Normal people are very disturbed by the news of course, but I still heard grown-up, serious people wonder out loud why anyone would make a connection between fascism and the Italian far-right.

(*)IMO a very influential segment of our ruling class finds the current breakdown of democracy very convenient politically and economically, so of course very effective measures are taken to make fascism palatable.

[Raphael]

The German state of Lower Saxony had a state legislative election today. The exit poll based prognosis is as follows:

SPD: 33.5 percent - 3.4 percent less than in the previous Lower Saxony election
CDU: 27.5 percent - 6.1 percent less than in the previous Lower Saxony election
Greens: 14.0 percent - 5.3 percent more than in the previous Lower Saxony election
AfD: 11.5 percent - 5.3 percent more than in the previous Lower Saxony election
FDP: currently at exactly 5 percent - 2.5 percent less than in the previous Lower Saxony election
The Left 2.5 percent - 2.1 percent less than in the previous Lower Saxony election

So first and foremost a dramatic increase for the AfD, which is not good at all. The main thing to wonder about is whether the FDP falls below 5 percent and gets kicked out of the state legislature - and, in either case, whether their recent string of losses will make them leave the federal level traffic light coalition with the SPD and the Greens. So for the SPD and the Greens, although they'll apparently take power together in Lower Saxony (which had an SPD-CDU grand coalition before the election), it might turn out to be a very Pyrrhic victory.

[Raphael]

Oh, and it looks like the President of Austria, Alexander Van der Bellen, got re-elected in the first round of the presidential election there, without even needing a run-off, so at least we don't have to worry about Austria getting a fascist president for now.

[Raphael]

Lower Saxony update: at the moment, it looks like the FDP will fall below 5 percent and won't get into the state legislature.

[MacAnDàil]

But why would the FDP withdraw from the traffic light coalition when they are losing? Then again, that happened in Italy and Bulgaria recently.

[hwhatting]

But why would the FDP withdraw from the traffic light coalition when they are losing?

They're in a strange position right now. Progressive voters see the FDP as the tail that wags the dog and prevents progressive ideas from being implemented / pushes through non-progressive policies for its own voters, but its own voters don't see it that way and don't show up in sufficinet numbers; they blame the FDP for inflation and high energy prices as part of the government. So the FDP is torn between sticking it out and hoping that in three years time things will look better, and going into opposition and hoping that their voters like them better when they snipe against the government. For the moment, I guess they'll hang on.

[Raphael]

Looks like the things people had been worrying about in Brazil are actually happening, now. Sigh.

[Ares Land]

That's sad, though alas predictable. On the plus side, the far right seems generally horribly depressed at the news (it turns the People wasn't secretely hoping for fascism, you see) so I admit to some schadenfreude;

[Linguoboy]

Looks like the things people had been worrying about in Brazil are actually happening, now. Sigh.

Looks like some truckers blocked some roads. Is there more going than that which simply hasn't reached English-language mass media?

ETA: Bolsonaro hasn't officially conceded, which isn't great, but his chief of staff has been working with the incoming illustration to end the blockades and has said he will cooperate with them on the official transition. The Supreme Court has ruled that, by not official contesting the result, Bolsonaro has de facto accepted it.

According to the journalist Thomas Traumann, the most likely explanation for Bolsonaro's behaviour (besides the fact that he's still in shock at the result) is that he's negotiating behind the scenes to secure some kind of protection from prosecution (since he did a lot of illegal shit in office) and that street protests are likely his only real bargaining chip left at this point.

[MacAnDàil]

From reading the Wikipedia page about the election, I learnt that some bosses like the bilionaire Luciano Hang were bullying their employees into voting Bolsonaro. Meanwhile Israel and Denmark. What do you make of them?

[Man in Space]

Staving Mac from the Venting thread so I do not derail it:

I do not which health problems you are referring to and am not sure how that would be related to voting. In any case, I encourage everyone to vote unless they would vote for the far right.

Mental health is health, full stop. The day I got out of politics on Twitter was one of the best days of my life. My judgment is compromised by my issues and I cannot support either party.

Sure, mental health is an aspect of health but the problem with politics on Twitter is Twitter, not politics.

It isn’t just Twitter. My dad watches all manner of right-wing political YouTube and it depresses me.

As well, my judgment is compromised due to my mental illnesses and I do not trust myself to make the best choice possible. I used to be a Trump supporter—look how that turned out; I however cannot in good faith support the Democrats either, and third parties in my neck of the woods are a non-starter. You can’t win and you can’t break even.

I’m legitimately becoming a monarchist. Trump ruined the appeal of democracy for me and people at large are stupid.