Zompist Bboard Again

For discussing upcoming elections and politics in general in countries that don't have their own thread

Can someone give an in depth explanation of the Loktantrik Janata Dal's policies? I looked up their RS MP, M. P. Veerendra Kumar, years ago and he seemed to be someone who stands for things I agree with.

Oh dear God. All I have to say about this is that basically, every political party in India has people separating from it to form a new party all the time, and this is another one of those, and this particular time, the split was apparently initiated by some asshole who made sexist comments against South Indian women and said voting is more important than protecting your own daughter or something.

The next two years will be interesting for me in Borealia.

After the Ontarian Disaster a few weeks ago, the Next Most Populous Province Up-North, where I happen to live, will also be having its elections next fall. And, for the first time in forever, the political parties finally show hints of Left-Right alignment. The Liberal Party, after almost two decades of rule, with a tiny interlude after the Maple Spring, is reaching a low in support. The vacuum is now occupied by a political party that I would call Conservative, but that's not its name (that would be Coalition Avenir Québec). To the left, you have the two independentist/separatist parties, even if the more leftist one, Quebec Solidaire, does not make it its main goal. It's gonna get weird.

Then, a year later, All Of Up-North will go to the polls. The poster boy of pseudo-liberalism Justin Trudeau will try to get reelected. He just decided to change his team and their tasks/portfolio ahead of the elections. What's unfunny is that it seems that Consie Andrew Sheer does have a chance somehow. Jagmeet Singh, of the Left party NDP has a hard time to impress. Overall, things are gonna be fun to look at next year.

Asking fellow Israelis: Will Israeli support for Bibi and Likud drop when he's indicted?

I'm not Israeli, but based on my observations of right-wing movements in various countries, I strongly suspect that it won't make a difference - or, if anything, that it will strengthen support for him and his party, by giving him even more opportunities to strike a pose as a right-wing martyr. Sigh.

I heard Nelson Chamisa in the news a few days ago. He was infuriating, talking about the ZANU-PF as if the MDC was entirely innocent of political violence. If only there was an alternative to both...

I heard Jacinda Ardern is back. Has Winston Peters broken anything while she was gone?

Also, the Sweden Democrats are scarily close to being the party with the most seats in Sweden. What are the chances of an S+M+C+MP coalition replacing the 2014 agreement?

mèþru wrote: ↑Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:20 amI heard Jacinda Ardern is back. Has Winston Peters broken anything while she was gone?

Surprisingly, Winnie's six weeks were fairly uneventful. At the end of the day, he's a great politician - very adept at manoeuvring through questioning from both the opposition and the press. He did make a few negative remarks towards China and Australia, but luckily no one seems to be making a big deal about it because 'it's just old Winnie'. Otherwise it was just business as usual.

I'm conflicted about who I want to see win the Republican primary for Governor of Kansas. Both Colyer and Kobach are terrible, but Kobach is worse and would make an even more disastrous Governor than Brownback (which is really saying something). But current polls show him losing to Kelly, the Democratic nominee, whereas Colyer would probably win. Of course, we've been there before and we all saw how that turned out. (As some of my friends said when requesting Republican ballots in order to vote against Trump in Illinois' open primaries, "The only way to ensure he doesn't win is to keep him off the ballot.")

How long can we expect the Swedish coalition negotiations to take?

mèþru wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:37 pm How long can we expect the Swedish coalition negotiations to take?

As long as Belgium's?

Yiuel Raumbesrairc wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:37 am

mèþru wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:37 pm How long can we expect the Swedish coalition negotiations to take?

As long as Belgium's?

That would be funny and possibly well-deserved, though they could end up with a semi-coalition agreement like they had in the previous Riksdag. (The opposition parties would abstain from budget votes and votes of confidence.)

Also, in election things, Luxembourg goes to the polls in just over a month (14 October). Like usual, the CSV (Christian democrats) is polling as the single strongest party, but the question comes in whether any of the other parties will work with them (which did not happen during the last term of parliament, with a DP-LSAP-déi Gréng coalition), as they almost assuredly won't have the 31 seats for the majority. The current coalition doesn't seem to have enough projected seats to continue, on the other hand, so...

The ADR doesn't seem like an extremist party, maybe they can be the kingmakers in Luxembourg.

At least the Maldivian election gives some good news among a flood of awful

mèþru wrote: ↑Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:23 pm At least the Maldivian election gives some good news among a flood of awful

When the Maldives are the beacon of light in this world, things must really be wrong. But yay for the Maldives.

Elsewhere, in Canada, after the disastrous election of Doug Ford as premier of Canada's most populous province, we had elections in Canada's only bilingual province that resulted in a pure stalemate. There were 49 seats to fill: 22 went to the Conservatives, 21 to the Liberals who were the majority before the election, 3 each to the Greens and People's party (anti-bilingual party). Normally, you'd expect the Consies forming the next government, but their majority hinges on a single seat, said seat being held by an MP that will not (and politically cannot) accept any alliance with the People's party. So the Liberals will try again, with the Greens most probably. But if that wasn't enough, in a twist that copies the southern Neighbor, the Liberals actually won the popular vote by a 5% margin. Neighboring Quebec is looking closely as it unfolds.

Because next week, on Monday, Canada's only French province goes to the polls. And the results might turn out just as weird. This WILL be interesting years to come.

What about a Cons + Greens? Liberals + Greens is less than half the seats by one seat, unless if you have Liberals + Greens + People's.

mèþru wrote: ↑Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:06 pm What about a Cons + Greens? Liberals + Greens is less than half the seats by one seat, unless if you have Liberals + Greens + People's.

The Greens have approximately 0 ideas in common with the Consies, though it would be the only paring that would lead to a majority. As for the People's, neither Greens nor Liberals would dare, as the fact these two are pro-bilingualism makes sure they have the support of the third of the province for which it is important. Basically, the People's are the persona non grata they cannot ally with.

Less than a month to go until the Irish presidential election.

The candidates are:
Michael D Higgins - an acclaimed, bilingual (trilingual - he also speaks Spanish, though I don't know if he's fluent) poet, sociologist, political theorist, philosopher, international human rights campaigner and orator. He was a TD for over twenty years, and a Senator for a decade; he was Minister for Arts, Culture and the Gaeltacht (he established TG4, the Irish-language TV channel), he was President of the Labour Party, and he was Mayor of Galway. He is the incumbent, having been elected with more votes than any other Irish President in history, and is supported by the Labour Party, Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and several small parties (i.e. all the parties but one). He is a 'dear friend' of Martin Sheen, but comes from extreme poverty.

Seán Gallagher - celebrity businessman, off of Dragon's Den. He would have won the Presidency in 2011, but fell at the last hurdle due to multiple allegations of corruption. But that was years ago, so nobody will remember now.

Gavin Duffy - celebrity businessman, off of Dragon's Den.

Peter Casey - celebrity businessman, off of Dragon's Den.

Joan Freeman - recently appointed Senator, founded an anti-suicide helpline.

Liadh Ní Riada - Sinn Fein candidate.



Other candidates have failed to receive sufficient nominations - including anti-corruption journalist Gemma O'Doherty, and black, bisexual, far-right, recently-homeless TV star and artist pro-Trump candidate Kevin Sharkey. [non-incumbent candidates must be nominated by either political parties or by at least four local councils].

The only poll I'm aware of puts Higgins on 67%, with Gallagher in second place again. It seems unlikely that this will be a nailbiter. It is, however, historic: it's only the second time an incumbent President has been challenged for re-election.

So, here in the one and only Grand Duchy, an election is due to take place on 14 October for the Chamber of Deputies, the 60-member legislature. Seats are largely filled by proportional representation from open lists in four constituencies, so the quotas for seats vary from constituency to constituency, but the final result does largely reflect the nationwide voting.

The largest party in the Chamber, the Christian Social People's Party (CSV), is not in government partly due to a spy scandal that led to the 2013 election taking place a year ahead of schedule. The outgoing government, led by Xavier Bettel, is a three-party coalition of the center-right Democratic Party (DP), the left-leaning Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP), and the Greens (déi Gréng). There's also the right-wing ADR (which is kinda like the AfD, but less Euroskeptic and less notoriously racist), the Pirates, the Left Party (déi Lénk), the Communists (KPL), and a few other parties. Most seat projections give the CSV the greatest number of seats, as usual, but the issue will be who they end up in a coalition with: the DP has suggested a willingness to work with the CSV if certain red lines are respected. Current projections for seat totals suggest that the current three-party coalition government likely won't have the seats to continue... but we'll see what happens. Notably, voting is mandatory for Luxembourgish citizens, so turnout won't be an issue as much as popularity.

Also, in other fun election things, on that same day, Bavaria will have their state elections for their Landtag. The CSU (the CDU's sister party that only runs in Bavaria) has been dominant in Bavarian politics since the formation of the Federal Republic, but polling shows them at 35% support compared to 48% at the previous election... the more troubling thing is that they've expressed a willingness to, if need be, coalition with the AfD, something the CDU/Angela Merkel vehemently opposed on the Federal level. On a Federal level, with the ongoing kerfuffle between Merkel and Horst Seehofer (CSU leader), if the CSU's support tanks like predicted, then the cabinet dynamics could become quite... interesting, to say the least.