United States Politics Thread 47

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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by zompist »

Torco wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2026 2:11 pm
zompist wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2026 4:39 am I think left vs right explains almost none of the current situation. There are some tankies who think that China and even Russia are still communist. Well, no, they're not, they're capitalist, just with a strong authoritarian state. Arguably the Chinese are "the most prominent capitalists in the world"; it's one of the few places in the world where capitalism works-- e.g., by having so much capitalist competition that corporate profits are low. (See my review of Breakneck.) But I suppose it'll be a generation before the world realizes it.
soo... low corporate profits are a sign of capitalism, the system where the operating principle is maximizing corporate profits? :P
It's common to define "capitalism" as 'whatever the US happens to be doing right now", but you should know better. A lot of elements of capitalism were present in Assyrian times; on the other hand, basic elements of capitalism like the corporation and the stock market are far more recent. US Capitalism worked differently in the 1820s, the 1870s, the 1950s, and the 2020s. Capitalism is not the same in the US, in France, in India, in Brazil, etc.

There may be better pictures available, but here's a chart of US corporate profits (red, right-hand scale) over a 70-year period:

Image

There are two entirely different economic systems shown in this chart. One, 1946–1980, is liberal capitalism; note the high and stable wage portion of the economy, and the lower and stable corporate profit level. Two, 1980–2016, is plutocracy; note the steady decline in the wage level and the steadily increasing profit level.

(I can't find comparable data for the last 10 years, but profits are up.)

Capitalism doesn't mean "high and always rising corporate profits" as it apparently says in the Comintern manual; if it did, the manual would be entirely unable to explain the liberal period, or for that matter mature industries like food distribution, which is still very low-profit.

High profits mean that businesses are not under pressure to increase wages, and that sectors are increasingly controlled by monopolies or cartels. Capitalists always hate high wages— Adam Smith pointed this out two centuries ago, and had to spend a large part of his book explaining that no, bad years (what we would call recessions) are bad. They are not however always able to prevent wages from rising, and the smarter ones among them (including, famously, Henry Ford) understood that high wages meant a larger and more profitable economy.

If Trump gets his way we'll enter a third type of economy, crony capitalism. If under plutocracy the CEOs (re)took power, under crony capitalism the president and his coterie subjugate the CEOs to themselves. This has mostly been seen in the Third World, and is disastrous for both the people and non-corrupt businesses, but it's great for that coterie.
a quarter of the GDP, half of market cap, a bit under a third of corporate profits and something like a tenth of employment is directly state-owned companies. sure, you can call that state capitalism if you want, but the same can be said about the soviet union. also, there's a lot of coops. sure, there's a big private sector as well, but hey.
Sure, and all these numbers are higher in Europe. For instance, government spending / GDP is 58% in France; cf. 38% in the US, 27% in Chile. The same source (the IMF) has 33% for China.
the CPC says "yo guys we're gonna develop renewables" and the chinese economy, in fact, develops renewables. they CPC says "yo, its time for trains" and, in fact, the chinese build trains.
Sure, and Dan Wang's book explains what they are good at— building stuff— and what they are bad at— anything social or health-related. The CPC spectacularly mismanaged Covid and population policy, and its increasing authoritarianism doesn't benefit anyone but Xi.

But Wang is also worth reading for what happened in Shenzhen, where the government's hand amounted to piling electronics makers together. The original impetus was, IIRC, helping Apple build iPhones, but there was a free market in electronic parts, all suppliers were in walking distance, and the area learned to make more and more iPhone components, which turned out to be excellent training for making electronics in general, such as drones. The Party wasn't there saying "Make part X329 more slender and instead of using Y4359 tell the guys who make Z4503 to fit W4304 instead." Also note the "catfish principle": allow a more versatile foreign company in with few restrictions in order to spur local firms to do better.

There's a lot to learn from China, but one of those things is not "let policy be determined by old men reading Mao and Marx with no say by the actual workers.". It's a lot more explanatory to think of China's leaders as being engineers (most of them are literally trained that way), with all the good and bad parts of the engineering mindset.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Torco »

elements, sure. there's also elements of socialism in assyrian times. there's elements of a chair in a table. as often happens with charts the edges tell the story here. the 30ies to 60ies were a period of relatively socialdemocratic policy, but that's not representative of what was there before. in many ways the period betwen 1850 and 1920 is a lot like the post-1980s plutocracy. capitalism has a natural tendency towards plutocracy that was suspended, or curtailed, during the new deal and ww2, you can't extrapolate 1944 backwards: what you had before 29 was the gilded age, not more 1950ies welfare.

still, you're right that you can have different kinds of capitalism. it's not like low profit rates alone make china socialist.
zompist wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2026 4:04 pm
a quarter of the GDP, half of market cap, a bit under a third of corporate profits and something like a tenth of employment is directly state-owned companies. sure, you can call that state capitalism if you want, but the same can be said about the soviet union. also, there's a lot of coops. sure, there's a big private sector as well, but hey.
Sure, and all these numbers are higher in Europe. For instance, government spending / GDP is 58% in France; cf. 38% in the US, 27% in Chile. The same source (the IMF) has 33% for China.
public spending is not the same, though. a quarter of gdp being produced by SOEs is not the same as french dirigisme, or public spending in general. the french state spends a lot, but that's not the same as industry being public. this isn't that unique, granted, vietnam (another country trying to do socialim) and russia (a weird country, as we know ex-socialist) are other countries with very high SOE share in the economy, but it's different from french or chilean public spending, it's public production. between a quarter and a third of industrial profits are SOEs in china, this is not the case in france, despite its high spending.

plus, neither chile nor france have literal communist cadres on boards by law, or five year plans, or state owned banks, or any of the other elements. if it's capitalism, it's one weird sort of capitalism.
There's a lot to learn from China, but one of those things is not "let policy be determined by old men reading Mao and Marx with no say by the actual workers.".
it really does seem to be working better than "let policy be determined by old men reading rothbard and friedmann with no say by the actual workers". not ideal, though, but at least the old men reading mao and marx don't bomb civilians all over the world.

i'll see about finding breakneck as an audiobook, it sounds interesting
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Torco wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2026 10:57 am he 30ies to 60ies were a period of relatively socialdemocratic policy, but that's not representative of what was there before. [...] capitalism has a natural tendency towards plutocracy that was suspended, or curtailed, during the new deal and ww2,
According to Marx, capitalism has a natural tendency towards socialism. I don't think either of these opposite tendencies are natural laws, but you can make as good a case for Marx's as for yours.
public spending is not the same, though. a quarter of gdp being produced by SOEs is not the same as french dirigisme, or public spending in general. the french state spends a lot, but that's not the same as industry being public. this isn't that unique, granted, vietnam (another country trying to do socialim) and russia (a weird country, as we know ex-socialist) are other countries with very high SOE share in the economy, but it's different from french or chilean public spending, it's public production. between a quarter and a third of industrial profits are SOEs in china, this is not the case in france, despite its high spending.
Public spending was just the easiest number to research, and I don't think it can be so easily dismissed. France is unusually state-oriented, Chile unusually not. Dirigisme is not identical to the Chinese sytem, but neither is it identical to US plutocracy.
plus, neither chile nor france have literal communist cadres on boards by law, or five year plans, or state owned banks, or any of the other elements.
France does have state banks, notably the Caisse des dépôts et consignations. I think you're being silly about "five year plans" in general; if you have state planning on the level of France or Japan, it hardly matters if it's divided into chunks in precise Leninist fashion.
it's capitalism, it's one weird sort of capitalism.
Absolutely! Yet it's only an unaccountable puzzle if the only form of capitalism you compare it to is the US. You can find authoritarian capitalism in South Korea (till 1987) or Taiwan (till 1996). Or Nazi Germany.
There's a lot to learn from China, but one of those things is not "let policy be determined by old men reading Mao and Marx with no say by the actual workers.".
it really does seem to be working better than "let policy be determined by old men reading rothbard and friedmann with no say by the actual workers". not ideal, though, but at least the old men reading mao and marx don't bomb civilians all over the world.
Sure they do, but not at the moment. Also you're giving Trump too much credit; he doesn't read anything.

Until proven otherwise, we have the chance to throw the bums out, which the Chinese do not have. But really, "no say by the workers"? Let me introduce you to the 40% of union workers who voted for Trump. Not only should you read something past Marx, you should read Kropotkin who explained this 150 years ago. Nor are reactionary factory workers just a US phenomenon.

And please don't give me any canards about "voting doesn't matter"; if it didn't matter, Trump and his party wouldn't be so hell-bent on restricting or subverting it.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Oh, so China is not capitalist because corporate profits there are low? Err, if they're so non-capitalist, why do they have corporations with profits in the first place? I might buy that they're non-capitalist if they wouldn't have those things, but they do.

Yes, they have limits on capitalism. So does pretty much everyone else these days. A limited war is still a war. Having a limited illness doesn't mean you're healthy. Limited capitalism is still capitalism.

As for the Chinese political system, I might accept that it's better than the Western system once I hear about all the prominent critics of the Chinese leadership and the way things are run in China who have prominent positions in Chinese culture or society without getting imprisoned, disappeared, or murdered.

And defending their foreign policy as not involving bombing civilians is ridiculous as long as they're close allies of Putin's Russia.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Good summary of the whole Iran War thing by Bret Devereaux: https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellan ... r-in-iran/ (For they record, right now as I write this, a substantial share of the comments in the comment section there were written by me.)
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Raphael wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2026 7:14 am Good summary of the whole Iran War thing by Bret Devereaux: https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellan ... r-in-iran/ (For they record, right now as I write this, a substantial share of the comments in the comment section there were written by me.)
And now I've let myself get drawn into an argument with some delusional guy who thinks that everyone who doesn't support this war wants the Mullahs to take over the world. I know, I know, I probably shouldn't do that. But first, I somehow can't help it, and second, I do want to make clear for the record that I have good arguments against that guy's position which that guy can't counter.

It's just annoying that it seems to distract me from the writing I want to do.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Raphael »

Raphael wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2026 4:46 am
Raphael wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2026 7:14 am Good summary of the whole Iran War thing by Bret Devereaux: https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellan ... r-in-iran/ (For they record, right now as I write this, a substantial share of the comments in the comment section there were written by me.)
And now I've let myself get drawn into an argument with some delusional guy who thinks that everyone who doesn't support this war wants the Mullahs to take over the world. I know, I know, I probably shouldn't do that. But first, I somehow can't help it, and second, I do want to make clear for the record that I have good arguments against that guy's position which that guy can't counter.

It's just annoying that it seems to distract me from the writing I want to do.
I guess I've gotten the guy in question to the empty bluster stage.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Torco »

zompist wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2026 3:42 pm
Torco wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2026 10:57 am he 30ies to 60ies were a period of relatively socialdemocratic policy, but that's not representative of what was there before. [...] capitalism has a natural tendency towards plutocracy that was suspended, or curtailed, during the new deal and ww2,
According to Marx, capitalism has a natural tendency towards socialism. I don't think either of these opposite tendencies are natural laws, but you can make as good a case for Marx's as for yours.
yeah, i don't think he was right about that one. it's a lot easier to see how capitalism tends towards plutocracy (competition breeds winners and losers> winners buy the losers>you end up with just a few winner concentrating economic power. then you know economic power gives a person political power (lobbying is just legalized lawbuying) and boom, plutocracy). whereas how it leads to socialism, specifically, is not nearly as clear.
Sure they do, but not at the moment. Also you're giving Trump too much credit; he doesn't read anything.
hahaha true, but i don't mean trump specifically just like you didn't mean xi specifically, i meant neoliberal capitalism more generally. I don't think the sematics argument is that interesting though, if the chinese economic model is a variety of capitalism, characterized by communist party rule state owned banks and an explicit ideology of "we allow billionaires but they exist at our convenience, and we get to boss them around or remove their billionaire power if we want" and all the rest of it, then sure, okay, i guess... sure looks like a more viable and reasonable model of capitalism than the one being pushed by the states. maybe we can call it marxist capitalism

also how do you mean "not at the moment"? list me the genocides the PRC has perpetrated. list me the countries china has invaded. list me the violent regime changes through which the chinese have established fascist governments abroad. i don't say the chinese are perfect, they've done and do fucked up things, but we're comparing apples to oil tankers full of apple juice here.
And defending their foreign policy as not involving bombing civilians is ridiculous as long as they're close allies of Putin's Russia.
this is a really obvious.... oh, how do you say this in english? in spanish we say "jugar al empate", playing to draw.... what i mean is that sure, russia is engaged in a war of aggression against ukraine, and that's bad, and china is allied with them, and that's bad. israel is engaged in bombing and starving two million civilians, and the us is allied with them, and that's bad. but not all bad is equally bad. the amount of civilians who have been bombed by the us and its allies in the last, say, 50 years, is a looooot bigger than the amount of civilians being bombed by china and its allies in the same time. it's like that scene from that movie nuremberg, where the guy is saying "you say we are bad cause of the final solution, huh? but you firebombed us. we're all violent" and it's like... yeah, sure? but the scores aren't tied.

reminds me of people who deny us imperialism and then call russia imperialist. who has the entire world using their currency? who has military bases in like 90% of the countries in the planet? who dictates policy to the rest of the world like it's nothing, and then regimechanges countries that don't follow its dictates throughout the world world? who invades a new country every five to ten years under some bullshit flimsy excuse veryone knows is false (the maine, tonkin, WMDs, the taliban, iran is one week away from getting nukes, blabla). i'm not generally as against whataboutism as other people, but still.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Erm…, I suspect the Uyghurs and Tibetans would beg to differ on your genocide point. I apologise for the unevidenced claim, but I did have a longer post with links, but the board ate it, and it really wasn't hard to find. I'm actually a little sympathetic to your argument¹ but that line really tipped the balance from “slightly heterodox argument” to “anti-American screed” for me.

¹ Although I'd be a lot more nuanced and be a lot less cavalier about the realities of an entrenched dictatorship
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Travis B. »

Torco, what China hasn't done is for lack of opportunity not lack of want. If China could be, China would be just as much of an imperialist power as the US. And as Lērisama mentions, Uyghurs and Tibetans would not think the Chinese Communist Party is as benevolent as you seem to think it is.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by zompist »

Torco wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2026 1:49 pm
zompist wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2026 3:42 pm
Torco wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2026 10:57 am he 30ies to 60ies were a period of relatively socialdemocratic policy, but that's not representative of what was there before. [...] capitalism has a natural tendency towards plutocracy that was suspended, or curtailed, during the new deal and ww2,
According to Marx, capitalism has a natural tendency towards socialism. I don't think either of these opposite tendencies are natural laws, but you can make as good a case for Marx's as for yours.
yeah, i don't think he was right about that one. it's a lot easier to see how capitalism tends towards plutocracy (competition breeds winners and losers> winners buy the losers>you end up with just a few winner concentrating economic power. then you know economic power gives a person political power (lobbying is just legalized lawbuying) and boom, plutocracy). whereas how it leads to socialism, specifically, is not nearly as clear.
When capitalists get too outrageous, workers start to organize, and people start to fight back. It happened in the robber-baron period and it's happening today. A poll last year found that 54% of US people had a positive view of capitalism, 39% of socialism. Socialism polls higher than capitalism among Democrats. That's not The Revolution, of course; but it is probably a sign that deep reform is becoming more likely.

But neither tendency is some natural law that we can only gawk at and not reverse. The turn toward plutocracy was a mix of particular policy changes: dramatically lower taxes on the rich, dramatically higher executive pay, lax anti-trust enforcement, anti-union agitation, etc. All aided by a frank appeal to racism that ended the Democrats' previous majority.

Plutocracy may look strongly entrenched now, but 1) its enforcers are busy shooting themselves in the foot; and 2) it looked a lot more entrenched in 1926, when we couldn't point to a previous period of reform or liberalism.
sure looks like a more viable and reasonable model of capitalism than the one being pushed by the states.
If you mean neoliberalism, sure, that is a disaster. But it's an odd comparison: it's like comparing the French and British empires by saying that it was worse to live in a British colony than to live in Paris. Absolutely true, but shouldn't the comparison be Paris/London or British/French colonies?
maybe we can call it marxist capitalism
I don't see anything Marxist about it. How about fascist capitalism? The Nazis even had four year plans. They had a mixed economy where business was subordinated to the Party, a growing economy, a state bank, repression of the people, concentration camps for the bad people— all the things you admire about China.
list me the genocides the PRC has perpetrated. list me the countries china has invaded.
Korea, Vietnam, Tibet, India. Ongoing genocide in Xinjiang. Support for and aid to genocidal regime in Cambodia. Support for and aid to rebels who took over Laos. Plus a program of Han settlement that, if it occurred anywhere else, lefties would call settler colonialism. Plus an unknown level of support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (North Korea was actually fighting for Russia.) A longtime threat to invade Taiwan. A policy of military confrontation in the South China Sea against the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

Has the US done worse? Sure, but China was simply not in a position to do much damage till the last couple decades. Which was a worse imperial power in 1890, the US or Britain?

To avoid red herrings, my point is not "US good, China bad". Plutocracy is horrible, crony capitalism is worse. I admire the PRC for modernizing China, something neither outsiders nor the Nationalists could do. Deng is one of the remarkable leaders of the 20th century. And as I said, the engineering mindset gets a lot of things done. But authoritarianism is bad and eventually causes disasters and collapses and wars. Yes, even in China.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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zompist wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2026 3:56 pmPlutocracy may look strongly entrenched now, but 1) its enforcers are busy shooting themselves in the foot; and 2) it looked a lot more entrenched in 1926, when we couldn't point to a previous period of reform or liberalism.
Then again, propaganda has also improved dramatically over the past century. The plutocrats and their sycophants have incredible new media technology at their disposal that robber barons of the past could hardly imagine. We've gone from biased newspapers to social media platforms algorithmically optimized for promoting far right ideology and ensconcing people in echo chambers. Plenty of people today have no idea that economic inequality has reached such extremes, or consider it good and dream of "wealthmaxxing" their way to trillionaire status, or blame immigrants and Jews and so forth rather than plutocrats.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by Travis B. »

malloc wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2026 2:19 pm
zompist wrote: Thu Mar 26, 2026 3:56 pmPlutocracy may look strongly entrenched now, but 1) its enforcers are busy shooting themselves in the foot; and 2) it looked a lot more entrenched in 1926, when we couldn't point to a previous period of reform or liberalism.
Then again, propaganda has also improved dramatically over the past century. The plutocrats and their sycophants have incredible new media technology at their disposal that robber barons of the past could hardly imagine. We've gone from biased newspapers to social media platforms algorithmically optimized for promoting far right ideology and ensconcing people in echo chambers. Plenty of people today have no idea that economic inequality has reached such extremes, or consider it good and dream of "wealthmaxxing" their way to trillionaire status, or blame immigrants and Jews and so forth rather than plutocrats.
Obviously the plutocrats aren't doing a good job at that despite the advantages you suppose they have, with how Trump's polls are in the toilet, Republicans keep on losing races they ought to be able to win (and only winning them on thin margins in races that they ought to be able to win by a landslide), and socialism is at its most popular here in the US in decades.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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Travis B. wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2026 3:28 pmObviously the plutocrats aren't doing a good job at that despite the advantages you suppose they have, with how Trump's polls are in the toilet, Republicans keep on losing races they ought to be able to win (and only winning them on thin margins in races that they ought to be able to win by a landslide), and socialism is at its most popular here in the US in decades.
Are they really, though? Sure there are plenty of headlines proclaiming that his approval ratings have reached all-time lows. Yet the polls I've seen have scarcely budged. He reached his peak at the start of his term, declined over the next few months and has remained stuck at 40% for what feels like nearly a year.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2026 7:23 pm Are they really, though? Sure there are plenty of headlines proclaiming that his approval ratings have reached all-time lows. Yet the polls I've seen have scarcely budged.
Here's the NYT's amalgamation of multiple polls.

Please explain how the all-time low is not an all-time low, and how the steadily declining line has "scarcely budged" in moving from 52% to 40%. I know, I know, UNSTOPPABLE GOD EMPEROR DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by malloc »

zompist wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2026 8:36 pmPlease explain how the all-time low is not an all-time low, and how the steadily declining line has "scarcely budged" in moving from 52% to 40%. I know, I know, UNSTOPPABLE GOD EMPEROR DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
Fair enough. My point was that I have seen numerous news reports over the past year declaring that Trump was cratering in opinion polls and every time, his numbers are in the low forties. Bobbing between forty and forty-five percent approval over months does not sound like collapsing popularity to me.

Furthermore we must also acknowledge that young people are swinging far to the right, something which will undoubtedly pose significant problems in future decades even if Trump is defeated. If present trends continue, they will be voting for someone like Nick Fuentes in a landslide. We need serious plans for defeating the manosphere and similar movements now, turning zoomers away from reactionary politics if possible and certainly preventing still younger generations from going down the same path.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2026 3:16 pmWe need serious plans for defeating the manosphere and similar movements now, turning zoomers away from reactionary politics if possible and certainly preventing still younger generations from going down the same path.
Quite true. Do you have any suggestions for how we might do this? More generally, do you imagine that you are the only one who has thought of this, or is doing anything about it?
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by bradrn »

alice wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2026 3:25 pm
malloc wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2026 3:16 pmWe need serious plans for defeating the manosphere and similar movements now, turning zoomers away from reactionary politics if possible and certainly preventing still younger generations from going down the same path.
Quite true. Do you have any suggestions for how we might do this? More generally, do you imagine that you are the only one who has thought of this, or is doing anything about it?
I’m sure he knows that other people are doing things about this now; I read his post as asking for more information about such plans.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

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malloc wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2026 3:16 pm
zompist wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2026 8:36 pmPlease explain how the all-time low is not an all-time low, and how the steadily declining line has "scarcely budged" in moving from 52% to 40%. I know, I know, UNSTOPPABLE GOD EMPEROR DOOM DOOM WORSHIP TRUMP.
Fair enough. My point was that I have seen numerous news reports over the past year declaring that Trump was cratering in opinion polls and every time, his numbers are in the low forties. Bobbing between forty and forty-five percent approval over months does not sound like collapsing popularity to me.
My guess is that you are reacting to news stories of individual polls, rather than an amalgamation as the NYT is providing. The NYT also provides recent individual polls, which report anywhere from 36% to 46% approval. I hope you understand that the amalgamation is more accurate. Again, you can look at the line, it is not "bobbing between 40 and 45%", it is steadily declining.
Furthermore we must also acknowledge that young people are swinging far to the right,
No we mustn't, because it isn't true. That article reports 23.6% support for Trump in the 18 to 29 bracket.
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Re: United States Politics Thread 47

Post by malloc »

zompist wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2026 3:40 pmNo we mustn't, because it isn't true. That article reports 23.6% support for Trump in the 18 to 29 bracket.
Sure but that doesn't necessarily mean they've moved away from right wing politics. Perhaps they no longer believe that Trump is capable of killing the "woke mind virus" or turning back the clock on women's rights. They may well still support the Manosphere and all that and are simply waiting for a better champion of reactionary politics to appear. We made a grave mistake in assuming young people were still moving leftward in 2024 and we should not assume they have learned any lesson just yet.
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