United States Politics Thread 47

[rotting bones]

When Israel first created the settler colony, the surrounding natives naturally resisted. Nowadays, Israel is surrounded by puppet dictatorships that are largely allied with it. This includes the most powerful Arab states. Saudi Arabia is larger than Iran in area, though the land is less hospitable.

The problem is that Israelis don't believe Arabs are allied with them. Among Israeli youth, far right extremists are a majority: https://www.reddit.com/r/jewishleft/s/MgKS2YvWM0 See the comments for some reasons why.

One big factor that's never mentioned, I think, is propaganda. IME lots of people seem to have become incapable of believing that non-whites could possibly want a genuinely progressive, non-traditional future. Their sense of reality has become misaligned with the facts. Middle class non-whites who train in cultural conservatism in Western universities have contributed to this impression. Secular people like us try to voice our opinions, but "listening to minorities" has come to mean listening to middle class cultural conservatives. A non-conservative like me is only nominally a minority, apparently. Some people even think I'm lying about not being a conservative. They assume I'm religious despite being repeatedly told I'm not.

This propagandized mind seems true of American Zionist institutions as well: https://www.reddit.com/r/jewishleft/s/Y6x8JsEkyX However, my understanding is that only a tiny minority tries to commit actual murder like this: https://substack.com/@premthakker/note/ ... 07?r=e7ptw (There's also a text article. The video is easier to identify because of the thumbnail. Sorry.)

This doesn't seem to be the case in Israel, where the support for violence is high. Settlers routinely commit murder. The state only restrains them when the optics will be bad. I assume the people who used to be in the Jewish Mafia become Settlers these days.

I wonder if Netanyahu's plan is to create a perpetual war that will let him declare a state of emergency to avoid holding elections. Perhaps Zionists will change the definition of democracy to fit this new state of affairs: anyone who says democracy doesn't mean serving Netanyahu as one's eternal Lord and Savior is an antisemite.

[Travis B.]

One big factor that's never mentioned, I think, is propaganda. IME lots of people seem to have become incapable of believing that non-whites could possibly want a genuinely progressive, non-traditional future. Their sense of reality has become misaligned with the facts. Middle class non-whites who train in cultural conservatism in Western universities have contributed to this impression. Secular people like us try to voice our opinions, but "listening to minorities" has come to mean listening to middle class cultural conservatives. A non-conservative like me is only nominally a minority, apparently. Some people even think I'm lying about not being a conservative. They assume I'm religious despite being repeatedly told I'm not.

Is Zohran Mamdani a cultural conservative to you?

[rotting bones]

One big factor that's never mentioned, I think, is propaganda. IME lots of people seem to have become incapable of believing that non-whites could possibly want a genuinely progressive, non-traditional future. Their sense of reality has become misaligned with the facts. Middle class non-whites who train in cultural conservatism in Western universities have contributed to this impression. Secular people like us try to voice our opinions, but "listening to minorities" has come to mean listening to middle class cultural conservatives. A non-conservative like me is only nominally a minority, apparently. Some people even think I'm lying about not being a conservative. They assume I'm religious despite being repeatedly told I'm not.

Is Zohran Mamdani a cultural conservative to you?

I don't know what's behind Mamdani's politician face. I'd say that to the extent he enacts policies distinctive to Muslim idpol groups to garner their support, he's participating in the social system of cultural conservatism I've referred to here.

I don't live in NYC and I'm not educated on Mamdani's policies. I'm inclined to say him allowing protests in front of synagogues qualifies. But maybe protesting in front of churches, mosques and temples are normal in America. I wouldn't know.

[Raphael]

You're partly right, but this is complete bullshit:

I assume the people who used to be in the Jewish Mafia become Settlers these days.

Very, very different motivations and mindset.

As for Netanyahu, based on observing him and people who think like him for generations, I'd say it's not so much that they want to create a forever war, as that they're absolutely convinced that a forever war is the unavoidable permanent state of affairs anyway.

[Raphael]

Some good points, but just for the record:

But you seem to be saying that one should never, like Obama, make a deal with the bad guys.

I am not. I'm just against being too openly friendly with people like that.

[Raphael]

Specifically in the context of Israeli understanding, or lack thereof, of the USA, you might have heard of certain passages which Yonatan Netanyahu wrote in letters to Israel when he lived in US suburbia as a teenager. If you're not, he basically wrote that the US teenagers around him, and perhaps the country as a whole, were living shallow, clueless, meaningless lives, only concerned with trivial things, and insulated from the harsher sides of the world. Judging from some comments I sometimes see some Israelis make on the Internet, I've got the impression that that kind of view is still at least somewhat common there. In which case they have no idea how real the concerns that lead many Americans to oppose the right-wing, and therefore many of Israel's closest allies in the USA, are.

My understanding of this phenomenon is that, because Israel is almost surrounded by hostile neighbours whose topmost priority is to destroy the state, some Israelis are convinced that this is a natural state of affairs which must be true of all Western countries. Therefore, people who don’t see this must be weakling leftists in denial about the true state of the world.

Also, I presume mandatory conscription has strongly influenced this attitude. I recall hearing that some veterans from other countries end up feeling similarly about civilian society.

Oh, personally I do think that by now, that is true of most Western countries outside North America. That was different at the start of this (CE) century. It's just that, if the Western country in question isn't named "Israel", IMNSHO Middle Eastern fundamentalists are relatively low on the list of most urgent threads, and we shouldn't focus our resources on them.

Another angle: part of the "understanding gap" might be a refusal to understand that there are other potentially life-shaking concerns aside from "external enemies want to destroy the country and kill people in it." Like, for instance, "the country has a level of internal violence that causes more than enough death and destruction each year without any need for help from external enemies." Or "the country's health system and socioeconomic structures are such that it's very common for people to have no idea where to find the money to cover various expenses which they must cover to stay alive." Or "there are a lot of people in the country, who may or may not include some of the people I am or used to be closest to, who try everything to make life for members of a demographic group I belong to as unsufferable as possible."

So the assumption "If you're not first and foremost concerned about the threat of Muslim fundamentalists, it must mean that you're only concerned with partying" is simply nonsense. (Not directed at you; directed at people who seem to believe that assumption.)

[rotting bones]

You're partly right, but this is complete bullshit:

I assume the people who used to be in the Jewish Mafia become Settlers these days.

Very, very different motivations and mindset.

Do humans do things for reasons, or find reasons to justify their urges? Correct me if I'm wrong. My impression is that there's a group of kids who grow up fighting in school, one segment of the "bad kids". When they grow up, these "bad kids" gravitate towards professions that require occasional violence and low responsibility like bouncer, although poor people of all kinds in need of cash also take these jobs. The most extreme of the violent "bad kids" become minions for crooks along with the most desperate among the poor.

It's not just violent "bad kids" who come up with post hoc rationalizations. Nationalists keep saying their universally destructive monstrosity is morally superior to social solidarity.

As for Netanyahu, based on observing him and people who think like him for generations, I'd say it's not so much that they want to create a forever war, as that they're absolutely convinced that a forever war is the unavoidable permanent state of affairs anyway.

I tend to strongly distinguish cultists from the cult leader. The cultists match what you said. As for the cult leader, I read Netanyahu might initially have been acting on bad intelligence that the Iranian regime will fall quickly. When it didn't, he just kept escalating. The question is, what plan B is he pivoting to? Does he still hold out hope Iran will fold, today perhaps, or has he made plans for every outcome?

[bradrn]

Another angle: part of the "understanding gap" might be a refusal to understand that there are other potentially life-shaking concerns aside from "external enemies want to destroy the country and kill people in it." Like, for instance, "the country has a level of internal violence that causes more than enough death and destruction each year without any need for help from external enemies." Or "the country's health system and socioeconomic structures are such that it's very common for people to have no idea where to find the money to cover various expenses which they must cover to stay alive." Or "there are a lot of people in the country, who may or may not include some of the people I am or used to be closest to, who try everything to make life for members of a demographic group I belong to as unsufferable as possible."

Yes, that’s basically what I was trying to say. Really it’s boils down to yet another case of ‘importing politics from one country into another’.

[MacAnDàil]

I tried to write the following message but the only contact method I found was directly to the White House:

Hello Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard,

You have long opposed US interventions abroad in Syria, in Iraq and Iran. As Director of National Intelligence, you now have the power stop such interventions. Please stick to your principles.

Regards,

The threatening of a civilization dying goes past being a US issue.

[rotting bones]

The threatening of a civilization dying goes past being a US issue.

If you think almost all Americans would be against wiping out a civilization, you'd be wrong: https://bbc.com/news/videos/c0krp3mpxg5o

Reminds me of interviews in Israel: https://youtu.be/hLQbPCvV8W8

Edit: But it looks like a ceasefire will happen.

[MacAnDàil]

BTW, and this is not at all important, but I'm amused that Zemaitis follows proper citation etiquette in giving the publisher for a book published in 1790. Like, sure, we're gonna call up that publisher in order to score a copy.

Citation etiquette was devised for a paper-based world where you asked the university librarian to get a book for you. The publisher was a vital piece of information. It hasn't adapted to a world where you can Google that shit.

It's also a status marker. "See, I know how to do academics."

Certainly, the telling-the-librarian and contacting-the-publisher reasons for citation etiquette are less relevant nowadays. The former is still necessary for interlibrary loans, at least with my uni.

There are at least two other reasons for citation etiquette, the latter of which is more relevant nowadays.

1° Source quality: the editor may indicate the source quality even more than the author. Indeed, if a researcher has no idea of the author, they may nonetheless trust the quality of the source before having read it if it is a university press or another academic publisher.

2° Availability: some sources are available to me, and it is more likely with some editors than others. This is even more the case with online back catalogues, where the researcher has access to the online back catalogue of a whole publisher.

[Raphael]

Phew. Better than what might have happened, I guess.

On a cynical note, how many people are, by now, absolutely convinced that Trump achieved a brilliant and historic triumph by forcing Iran to open the Strait, which they, now, are equally absolutely convinced had been closed before the war?

[malloc]

On a cynical note, how many people are, by now, absolutely convinced that Trump achieved a brilliant and historic triumph by forcing Iran to open the Strait, which they, now, are equally absolutely convinced had been closed before the war?

Too many at least. Whether you consider Trump a stealth genius or complete buffoon, there's no denying that he keeps lucking into remarkable success.

[zompist]

Phew. Better than what might have happened, I guess.

On a cynical note, how many people are, by now, absolutely convinced that Trump achieved a brilliant and historic triumph by forcing Iran to open the Strait, which they, now, are equally absolutely convinced had been closed before the war?

In my area gas has gone up from $3 to $4.50. That's the sort of thing that people notice.

Republicans are predicting they'll lose the midterms.

Some MAGAhats are outraged at the war on Iran: "The roster of conservative luminaries rebuking Trump over Iran this week could have been cut and pasted from a list of his most reliable supporters of the past: Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Mike Cernovich, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Turning Point USA's former communications director Candace Owens, among many others."

More relevant to your question, maybe: about 70% of Republicans support the war... on the other hand, only 49% of Republicans under 30. But as we know from malloc, young Republicans are all brainwashed by influencers and more conservative, so 49% must really mean 94%.

Still, it's all kind of moot until we know how the negotiations go. Trump actually said "We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate." If you actually look at the 10 points, it looks like a total capitulation by the US. That might not be clear to Trump or his supporters. Among many other things unclear to them.

If the US agrees to any of Iran's points, it would be a big strategic loss for the US. But again, listen to malloc. If he thinks Trump has achieved a "remarkable success", other Trump worshippers will too.

[malloc]

If the US agrees to any of Iran's points, it would be a big strategic loss for the US. But again, listen to malloc. If he thinks Trump has achieved a "remarkable success", other Trump worshippers will too.

It's not treason to acknowledge your enemy's strengths. Time and time again, liberals and leftists have written off the right as incompetent and doomed to extinction. We made the mistake of taking support from young people and ethnic minorities for granted only to watch them flock to Trump in the 2024 election. We dismissed the right as dogmatic and unable to adapt only for them to exploit new media like the internet and podcasts far better than us. Given their evident victories over the past decade, they are either extraordinarily lucky or have genuine skills somewhere.

[zompist]

Time and time again, liberals and leftists have written off the right as incompetent and doomed to extinction.

You're making shit up again.

There's plenty to be angry about in the actual world, you don't have to make up new shit to get angry at.

[Travis B.]

Yesterday, the liberal candidate, Chris Taylor, for Wisconsin Supreme Court beat the conservative candidate, Maria Lazar, by more than 20 points, shutting out the chance of conservative control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court until at least 2030 (and that would require conservatives winning all of their elections between now and then, which is unlikely given their track record), and while the Republicans won Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, they won it by only 12 points, in deep red country, when MTG had originally won it by 29 points and Trump had won it by 37 points. Does this look like the invincibility that you ascribe to the Republicans?

[Travis B.]

Or in other words, if the average swing in the midterms is similar to the average swing in the special elections we have seen so far during Trump's second term, the Republicans are fucked.

[malloc]

You're making shit up again.

There's plenty to be angry about in the actual world, you don't have to make up new shit to get angry at.

Just to name one example, when Communism and apartheid collapsed in the early 90s, many proclaimed an "end of history" in which liberalism had decisively triumphed over authoritarian ideologies. All alternatives to liberalism had been tried and found wanting, settling once and for all the ideal political framework for humankind. Thus not only were alternatives to liberalism morally reprehensible, they were also effectively impossible like cold fusion or alchemy.

Obviously that proclamation has failed miserably. Authoritarian regimes have proliferated enormously since the 90s with many supposed success stories like Russia jumping right back into dictatorship. Right now the most successful country is arguably China, as illiberal a regime as one can imagine. Far from having decisively defeated all rivals, liberalism is currently facing its strongest challenges in generations.

[Raphael]

I'm not at all sure this ceasefire, or, if you prefer, "ceasefire" will last the whole two weeks. Or even two more days.

But as far as the competence or lack thereof of the Far Right is concerned, I'd say that they're a lot more competent at getting power than at using it. They are very competent at pushing many people's buttons in just the right way, and telling many people the comforting untruths they want to hear, and as a result, they are very competent at getting support and therefore power. But their ideas about how the world actually works are generally false, and as a result, they are not at all competent at using the power they get.

Probably related to my earlier point about how they understand a lot about human nature, but very little about physical reality.