Elections in various countries

[mèþru]

At this point it might not even be Bennett but Shaked as the candidate. The two work so closely with each other though you might as well consider them to be a single hybrid Bened or Shanett.

[Raphael]

Hasn't Shaked been pretty much demoted to extra over the course of the last few months? That was the impression I got - left out of important talks, not included in various offers, etc.

[mèþru]

She's much more popular than Bennett though, so I wouldn't be surprised if either one was the candidate.

[Moose-tache]

So... Bolivia?
If I understand correctly, Morales has continued to be popular with the public, but the constitutional gymnastics required to allow him to evade term limits and the accusations of fraud in the most recent election led to the military crypto-coup that forced him to resign. In the immediate aftermath some level-headed center right politicians spoke up about Morales' increasingly undemocratic efforts to stay in power, and I thought "OK, maybe they're right. Maybe Morales did get a little too cocky and forced the opposition to get tough in order to restore some degree of competition to the political process."

Then this happened. From a deleted tweet Áñez made years ago: "Sueño con una Bolivia libre de ritos Satanicos indigenos, la ciudad no es para los indios que se vayan al altiplano o la chaco!!" Now she has declared herself President of Bolivia without even having a quorum in the legislative assembly. She walked into the Presidential Palace holding a bible that looked like something Bruce Campbell would throw into a fireplace. Now it's starting to look more and more like a good ol' fashioned Latin American putsch. Of course the initial uprising was by Bolivian military, which inevitably creates a connection to the CIA and the School of the Americas, if you feel like going in that direction. People have pointed out the on-going question of Bolivia's lithium resources under the Morales government that will no doubt be swiftly answered in favor of foreign corporations.

Here I was, thinking that maybe a Socialist could be overthrown by reasonable moderate people, without the whole thing becoming an ugly reactionary spectacle.

[dhok]

So... Bolivia?
If I understand correctly, Morales has continued to be popular with the public, but the constitutional gymnastics required to allow him to evade term limits and the accusations of fraud in the most recent election led to the military crypto-coup that forced him to resign. In the immediate aftermath some level-headed center right politicians spoke up about Morales' increasingly undemocratic efforts to stay in power, and I thought "OK, maybe they're right. Maybe Morales did get a little too cocky and forced the opposition to get tough in order to restore some degree of competition to the political process."

Then this happened. From a deleted tweet Áñez made years ago: "Sueño con una Bolivia libre de ritos Satanicos indigenos, la ciudad no es para los indios que se vayan al altiplano o la chaco!!" Now she has declared herself President of Bolivia without even having a quorum in the legislative assembly. She walked into the Presidential Palace holding a bible the size of the Necronomicon over her head and chanting. Now it's starting to look more and more like a good ol' fashioned Latin American putsch. Of course the initial uprising was by Bolivian military, which inevitably creates a connection to the CIA and the School of the Americas, if you feel like going in that direction. People have pointed out the on-going question of Bolivia's lithium resources under the Morales government that will no doubt be swiftly answered in favor of foreign corporations.

Here I was, thinking that maybe a Socialist could be overthrown by reasonable moderate people, without the whole thing becoming an ugly reactionary spectacle.

If I recall correctly, Áñez was fifth in line for the presidential succession after the first four resigned. ...of course, that doesn't mean those first four weren't pushed to resign in the hopes that she would take power.

I think we need to wait and see whether or not new elections are called (signs right now point to 'yes') and whether or not they're fair. Morales' party has an overwhelming majority in the legislature, and the second-largest party are social democrats; Áñez's party is small. Of course, part of the problem with trying to go by party affiliation is that a lot of Latin American parties are very, very weak ideologically--you have different flavors of vehicles for elites to rent-seek. (Cf. Brazil, which has something like two dozen parties in the legislature). Of course, the military is a completely different kettle of fish--if it doesn't answer to the new government, no matter what that government is, then you're in deep shit. This article is a good outline of why I think the lithium is a red herring--I don't think this is quite a repeat of 1973. (For another thing: this White House leaks like a sieve, and the American media is much more fractured and keen on going after the White House, particularly on foreign policy, than it was during the Nixon administration. If somebody high up had given orders to oust Morales, I think we'd probably know about it...and, also, in 2019, if a resource-insecure Great Power gave the order to orchestrate a coup in a foreign country, it's probably at least as likely to be Beijing as Washington).

That doesn't mean the CIA didn't see it coming (it's almost certain they've got contacts in the Bolivian military, as they do in any military), but that's not at all the same as orchestrating it. Note also that Morales had been losing support from indigenous Bolivians, trade unions, and other core supporters for a while at this point--though the replacement, if we're unlucky, may well be disastrous.

I will say that Costa Rica's move of getting rid of the military is looking increasingly smart. Except for the Falklands, Latin America hasn't had a serious state-on-state shooting war for nearly 90 years at this point (apparently Peru and Ecuador were at war for about a week in the '40s over a border skirmish), and the region's militaries are hotbeds for fascists and in many cases are active threats to democracy. Of course, abolishing them would require e.g. joining NATO as a replacement. (But then, a lot of Latin American countries also have trouble with paramilitaries, and there's not really any way to deal with that other than having a military...)

[Moose-tache]

I agree that the CIA and the White House probably did nothing to instigate this. Morales courted this by defying the referendum to impose term limits, and encouraging rough tactics against anti-Morales protesters. I won't be sad to see him replaced. I just hope the new elections (mandated to take place within 90 days) replace him with someone who can continue pro-human policies, and not the whack-a-doodle right wing politicians who are currently capitalizing on his demise.

[MacAnDàil]

Regarding German elections, 1) I just found out the existence in Belgium of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draining_law. Could this be a possibility in Germany? 2) Does anyone have experience with the postal vote in Germany?

[hwhatting]

1) My understanding is that in Germany, as long as a party is not prohibited, it has the right to government funding as long as it meets the necessary conditions (like vote thresholds in elections etc.) I assume that any attempt to introduce a draining law would be squashed by the Constitutional Court - if you want to limit the activities of a party because it's inimical to the constitution, you can try the prohibition procedure.
2) Yes. What exactly do you want to know?

[MacAnDàil]

How long does it take for your vote to arrive? How long before the election do you need to send it?

Because, as mentioned earlier in this thread, I am a German citizen that lives in Réunion so would be interested in registering for the postal vote but am unsure of whether my vote would arrive on time. I usually get letters and parcels from the UK a month after sending.

[hwhatting]

The postal vote must arrive at the indicated address latest on election day, before the vote closes; in Germany, that usually means 6PM. As elections normally take place on Sundays, and mail isn't delivered on Sundays, it actually has to arrive on the preceding Saturday (except if you go for a courier service instead of normal mail). It's your responsibility to send it in time, i.e. figuring out how much ahead you must send your vote. Problem: you can't ask for a postal vote before you receive the election notification, which inside Germany is ca. three weeks before an election. If you're abroad, the lead time will be shorter due to longer mail delivery times*). Then you'll have to request a postal vote (can be done online or per e-mail nowadays) and wait until you get the postal vote documents by snail mail. After that, you can send your postal vote, by mail or courier.
So this all kinda works when you're in a country with reasonable mail delivery times from Germany. In your case, I'd guess that the logistics don't work out and you better don't even bother. I certainly never did when I was abroad in more exotic countries.
*) If you still are registered at an address in Germany, it will be delivered there. If someone lives there who can open the notification and send the information on it to you, that shortens the lead time substantially.

[MacAnDàil]

It is much as I feared, thank you for explaining. Is there no proxy vote in Germany? If so, I might be able to vote in another state from where I was voting last time (Thuringia) as I have family in at least three other states.

[hwhatting]

Having somebody else vote for you? I think that's only possible if you're disabled or something like that.

[MacAnDàil]

Oh that's a shame becuase my sister does that for me for the UK. I was hoping I could get my cousin to vote for me in Germany.

[hwhatting]

Well, in Germany, I only ever heard about other people being allowed to submit your vote for you in the context of people being handicapped or seriously ill. But maybe I am wrong; just check out the election laws. But I am quite sure it's bound to your official residence, so whoever votes for you has to do it there, not at the place where they are residing.

[Pabappa]

http://news.trust.org/item/20191121170000-t5eia Netanyahu indicted ....

[Raphael]

Two German parties got new leadership today - ok, strictly speaking with an asterisk; more about that later.

The hard right AfD held a convention where Tino Chrupalla and Jörg Meuthen were elected co-chairmen. Meuthen had already been co-chairman, while Chrupalla replaces Alexander Gauland, who had chosen to retire his co-chairmanship. I don't know much about any of these men, except that I don't like them, but apparently the relevance of all this is that now all the original founders of the party have been removed from the leadership.

Over in the center-left and constantly shrinking SPD, there was a run-off vote of the grassroots membership in which the ticket of former finance minister of North Rhine-Westphalia Norbert Walter-Borjans and Member of the Bundestag Saskia Esken won against Vice Chancellor and Federal Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and Brandenburg politician Klara Geywitz. (Full disclosure: I helped my Mom, who's a bit less tech-savvy than me, with taking part in the online part of the vote.)

The SPD vote was mainly seen as a fight between Scholz and his running mate and the people who are not Scholz and his running mate. Scholz is, as Vice Chancellor, more strongly associated with the coalition of CDU, CSU, and SPD, so his defeat might theoretically mean trouble for the coalition. Before he became Vice Chancellor and finance minister, he had been Mayor of Hamburg, where the main event of his Administration was when he volunteered to host the 2017 G-20 summit. It's generally a bad idea for any city to host one of those big international summit meetings, and that goes especially if the city has a long-established lively and vibrant local far-left scene. During the ensuing debacle, I tweeted something along the lines of "Hamburg city government shocked and surprised by turn of events predicted by anyone who knows anything about either Hamburg or summit meetings". Well.

As for the asterisk I mentioned above, for legal reasons, the SPD members' vote was technically just advisory - the winners are meant to be formally elected by an upcoming party convention, but it is expected that that will just be a formality.

[Yiuel Raumbesrairc]

Canadian PM appointed a "Minister of Middle Class Prosperity".

I kid you not. It is real. I would be laughing if it weren't so sad a position.

[MacAnDàil]

-_- And proletariat prosperity? Or do working class people often identify as middle class?

[Vijay]

Indian news headline (not confusing):

Exhausted after performing for 2 hrs, dancer takes a break, is shot in face

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/12 ... 68/photo/1

[mèþru]

there's some really delicious drama going on right now among the right wing parties in Israel

HaBayt HaYehudi has in the last minute decided to withdraw their alliance with the Kahanist party Otzma Yehudit in order to reform an alliance with The New Right (headed by the former leader of HaBayt HaYehudi) and Tkuma. One of the 2 MKs, Moti Yogev, was an opponent of allying with Otzma Yehudit. He was put in 11th place on the list, causing him to quit and accuse the other MK and leader of the party Rafi Peretz having stolen the party, being a liar and unfit for the Knesset. This all happened today, only two days after HaBayt HaYehudi's central committee approved the alliance with Otzma Yehudi

In the meanwhile, on the left Meretz, Havodah and Gesher are running on a list together. The Green Party will not run. I have no idea what Democratic Israel is doing, they haven't been mentioned. Hopefully Ehud Barak will not run independently, but then again it is Ehud Barak we're talking about.