United States Politics Thread 46

[Ares Land]

On the plus side, they're eager to contract Covid and die or get permanent brain damage.

Or penis damage. I wonder if the death cultists realize that erectile dysfunction is a common side effect in Covid survivors.

I don't want to disappoint you or squash any hopes, but I'd bet a good sum on the death cultists being a lot more careful and a lot more vaccinated then they'd admit to.

[zompist]

On the plus side, they're eager to contract Covid and die or get permanent brain damage.

Or penis damage. I wonder if the death cultists realize that erectile dysfunction is a common side effect in Covid survivors.

I don't want to disappoint you or squash any hopes, but I'd bet a good sum on the death cultists being a lot more careful and a lot more vaccinated then they'd admit to.

You underestimate the foolishness of Trumpists.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/10/us/us-va ... index.html

The vaccination rate by state (shown on the map on that page) correlates very strongly with politics. (Another factor is ease of access to the vaccine.)

[alice]

The usual follow-up to a failed coup is a real coup. GOP legislators are busy restricting voting and making it legal for GOP legislatures to overturn elections. In their off moments they're pursuing their war on trans people.

Do you foresee a real coup taking place by legislative or by military means?

[zompist]

The usual follow-up to a failed coup is a real coup. GOP legislators are busy restricting voting and making it legal for GOP legislatures to overturn elections. In their off moments they're pursuing their war on trans people.

Do you foresee a real coup taking place by legislative or by military means?

I try to avoid catastrophizing; in the last four years reality has been horrible enough that it isn't helpful to invent things that are worse that what's happened already.

What we got after the election was a failed coup, led by incompetents in service of an idiot. It's fortunate that it was so incompetent: they couldn't bring up a single problem that could stand up in court; the people in charge of elections did their best to run them fairly; Congress was protected from the people trying to kill them; Trump had no military support.

The point is, people learn from their mistakes, and the GOP didn't learn "trying to end democracy is bad", they learned "next time, we'll end it more competently." They are changing the laws, and they will push out those competent officials, as well as Republicans like Liz Cheney who stood up to the lie. Will they send armed insurrectionists to kill Congress members? Sure, that's what they did this time.

[Raphael]

Something I sometimes get a bit curious about: Is there any pair of two places in the US that are fairly similar in terms of demographics and socioeconomic structure, but vote very differently?

[Nortaneous]

Something I sometimes get a bit curious about: Is there any pair of two places in the US that are fairly similar in terms of demographics and socioeconomic structure, but vote very differently?

Rural Vermont and rural Utah, although that's eliding a density difference of two orders of magnitude (the "rural" East Coast is still pretty dense outside Maine, which doesn't pattern with New England, probably because of the French)

[Moose-tache]

What's the next horrible thing?

Incel and QAnon sites have been ghost towns for months. We're overdue for a hot new alt-right lunatic cult. There's a nihilistic "ironic bigotry" movement*, formed mostly from Black Pill types and the sort of teenagers that would be called "South Park Conservatives" ten years ago, that has the weird energy of an up-and-coming alt-right lunatic cult. But it's not really gotten anywhere since all the platforms that allow that sort of thing have gone bankrupt. Maybe the next big thing in fascism will involve playing outside?

* as exemplified here and here.

[Nortaneous]

the next thing is the hollowing out of the urban core, which the right aestheticizes as a back-to-the-land movement, eliding that a lot of it is growth in small towns; the only leftist response so far (aside from increasingly irrelevant holdouts from early 2010s urbanism) is making noises about "BIPOC" "decolonization" of "unceded land"

where do things go from there? optimistically, the left briar-patches itself into irrelevance and we get a center-populist type who plays like an Orban; realistically, progressivism retrenches as the political voice of the urban professional class and voids both its pretense of countercultural succession and the claims of its inconvenient clients, the magazine class's attempt to rebase the Republican Party onto "post-liberal" political Catholicism quietly fails, and 2028 is managerial "Google Democrats" (with vote bank support from urban political machines, as has been the case since before the last realignment) vs. liberal Republicans

a lot of this is already settled, though - in Maryland, the wild countercultures were pressed out of major cities into places like Frederick and Taneytown a while ago, and DC Pride doesn't have anything but Lockheed Martin floats. if I were a life stage or two older I'd have already bought land in Martinsburg

[Moose-tache]

I have come to the conclusion that some of those were definitely words in English.

[Nortaneous]

I have come to the conclusion that some of those were definitely words in English.

In shorter words, I think that, once the realignment settles and the urban cores are hollowed out, the main political divide in English will pit the primarily urban, mercantile, and credentialed Eastern establishment (which we may as well call "managerialists" because this is what some of their enemies call them), in a difficult coalition with urban political machines and a less difficult one with academia and the established parts of the narrative industry, against the small-town petit-bourgeoisie and rural landholders (which we may as well call "populists" because this is what some of their enemies call them). The managerialists will see the populists as a dangerous and uncivilized peasant revolt; the populists will see the managerialists as authoritarians trying to preserve an unjust hierarchy.

The political positions of these factions will be decided primarily by material concerns - both factions will campaign for securing more resources for themselves.

There are still a number of open questions, such as what happens to social conservatism. Is America ready for a gay William Jennings Bryan? Maybe! There are a lot of social conservatives, but the managerialists will be hostile enough to them (they might campaign for ending or strictly limiting the tax exemptions of churches, for example) that they could be willing to settle for a liberal (in the European sense) who'll preserve things like religious freedom exemptions without working to reverse Obergefell or anything like that.

[Ares Land]

In shorter words, I think that, once the realignment settles and the urban cores are hollowed out, the main political divide in English will pit the primarily urban, mercantile, and credentialed Eastern establishment (which we may as well call "managerialists" because this is what some of their enemies call them), in a difficult coalition with urban political machines and a less difficult one with academia and the established parts of the narrative industry, against the small-town petit-bourgeoisie and rural landholders (which we may as well call "populists" because this is what some of their enemies call them). The managerialists will see the populists as a dangerous and uncivilized peasant revolt; the populists will see the managerialists as authoritarians trying to preserve an unjust hierarchy.

Two things here seems a bit surprising to my outsider eyes:

Haven't American urban centers been already emptied out decades ago?
The rest seems legit, but isn't it pretty much how US politics has worked since the 60s or the 70s?

On a more global perspective: populism is over. It rarely wins elections, and if by chance it wins you one, you end up looking like an idiot, being surrounded by idiots, fucking things up, having to deal with the bad PR of being surrounded by idiots that do idiotic things and losing the next election.
I mean, how happy are conservatives, really, with having picked Trump in 2016?

[zompist]

Haven't American urban centers been already emptied out decades ago?

Not exactly. Here's a map of population change 2010-19, by county:



Unfortunately the map doesn't show you where the cities are. Some are shrinking a lot, including a number of old northeastern cities. But some are growing, including Seattle, Fort Worth, Miami, Atlanta, and Denver.

On the above map, many of the areas losing population are rural counties. People are not too hot to keep living in the rural northeast, or in the Black Belt in the south.

FWIW New York City has grown by 2% in the 2010s, Los Angeles County by 2%, and Chicago shrank by less than 0.1%. If you're looking at a longer period (like since 1960), NYC and LA have grown, Chicago is smaller.

[Rounin Ryuuji]

With North Carolina specifically, the central purple blob is Raleigh, which is quite large, the lavender between the two dark purple blobs that aren't coastal is Greensboro (mostly a University town; lots of "college kids" coming and going) and Winston-Salem, and the lower purple blob is Charlotte, and Mecklenburg County, the second-largest city in the South, after Atlanta. Charlotte is also currently experiencing some sort of property bubble, according to a friend who lives there — houses in her (not remarkable) neighbourhood are selling for a great deal more than she paid for her house, and she only bought it last year.

The coastal dark purple blob is some nice beaches — more comfortable places, like Holden and Sunset Beach, where I think older people might be retiring more (this is just based on some of my parents' acquaintance, not any sort of study), and Wilmington, a city of some size, though it's been ages since I was there. The part bleeding into South Carolina contains Myrtle Beach. I think my natural mother lives somewhere in here. It's a fairly popular tourist area, and I suspect more people are retiring there, too. The dark orange line represents, I think, a number of rural communities that are dying out. My stepfather's mother lives in that area, which is mostly older people. Some parts of it look like they're right out of some past decade or other. There's charm to it, but it's also growing rather decrepit. People seem to leave this region because of low economic opportunity.

[Ares Land]

Not exactly.

Ah, thanks for the correction and data!

[Raphael]

In news that some might find trivial, but that I find quite telling, one of the better-known commentators on the USA's right-wing - a notorious sociopath who, a few years ago, had tweeted that he was laughing while watching Christine Blasey Ford's Senate testimony - went on a lengthy Twitter rant last night in which he openly called for outlawing everything he considers left-wing - opinions, media reports, ways of life, even masks.


These people have, for several generations, successfully convinced themselves and a lot of other people that the thing they value most is freedom.

[MacAnDàil]

In news that some might find trivial, but that I find quite telling, one of the better-known commentators on the USA's right-wing - a notorious sociopath who, a few years ago, had tweeted that he was laughing while watching Christine Blasey Ford's Senate testimony - went on a lengthy Twitter rant last night in which he openly called for outlawing everything he considers left-wing - opinions, media reports, ways of life, even masks.


These people have, for several generations, successfully convinced themselves and a lot of other people that the thing they value most is freedom.

I tried for a few minutes to identify who you are referring to but to no avail. What is the person's name?

[Raphael]

Kurt Schlichter.

[bradrn]

Out of morbid curiosity, I Googled this man’s name and found this. I quote verbatim:

The bizarre contortions that the libs are going through to blame you for the virus because you selfishly refused to submit to their fussy commands illustrates, for the umpteenth time, an undeniable fact about these fascist-curious creeps. They hate hate hate the idea of rights, particularly yours. In fact, when they refer to rights, they often insist on encasing the word in quotation marks, as if it was some bizarre and alien concept those Jesus-gun-truck-cisnormative people from Iowabamaho invented under the influence of moonshine and the Holy Spirit.

Rights, they realize, are an intolerable obstacle to the things they want to do – especially when it’s inferiors like yourself asserting said rights. In this case, what they want to do is inject you, regardless of your choice, with a medicine that works intermittently but they want to inject you with it because it is not preventing the virus and therefore they need to prevent the virus and my head hurts it hurts it hurts it hurts. And they also want to wrap your face in a towel because that is the only thing that can protect them, despite the fact their faces are wrapped in towels already and that should protect them, and now my head really hurts.

This is just… wow. Absolutely surreal. (In the sense that I get the feeling that my brain is melting like one of Dalí’s clocks.) I am so glad I don’t follow American politics.

By the way, I think I found the thread Raphael was referring to. I quote, again, verbatim:

… Ban CRT, Marxism and anti-American misinformation. Nationalize big tech and academia and mandate conservatism as their operational ideology. Ban leftist media and entertainment from spreading misinformation.3/
Penalize barren, non-familial lifestyles through taxes and disqualification from political participation. Establish property and military service qualifications for voting. Increase America’s carbon footprint. Ban masks. Dismantle unions.n4/
Use the law to ensure blue submission. Imprison dissenters. Force them to act against their deepest beliefs to keep their jobs. End all social programs and deport all illegals. Outlaw crime again. 5/
Seems kind of harsh. But hey, isn’t this the flip side of what they want to do to us? So I’m unclear why they would object that it’s wrong. 6/

Admittedly, it seems clear from the last line that he’s doing this as a rhetorical device, not proposing anything seriously. But still I find it kind of shocking someone could even consider saying something like this.

[Raphael]

Yup, that's the thread I meant.

I am so glad I don’t follow American politics.

Oh, if only it was a US-only thing. Opponents of Covid-19 measures in many countries say stuff like that, and worse. Here's a Twitter thread about a recent rally in Trafalgar Square, London:

https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1418915810416934915

Admittedly, it seems clear from the last line that he’s doing this as a rhetorical device, not proposing anything seriously.

I don't see any reason to believe that.

But still I find it kind of shocking someone could even consider saying something like this.

The US right-wing has, for decades or generations, thrived on saying shocking things. It's a subculture where, the more shocking things you're willing to say, the more you'll be rewarded - with fame, respect, status, money, political power. Every iteration makes them go farther out there. Each time they do, some people for whom the latest stuff goes too far leave the camp, driving the "average out-there-ness" (for lack of a better term) of those who remain even higher.

[bradrn]

I am so glad I don’t follow American politics.

Oh, if only it was a US-only thing. Opponents of Covid-19 measures in many countries say stuff like that, and worse. Here's a Twitter thread about a recent rally in Trafalgar Square, London:

https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1418915810416934915

Believe you me, I am well aware of this. Australia has its fair share of ‘boofheads’ as well (as our Police Minister so memorably called them). The difference is that after the first anti-lockdown protest here, they set up a massive police operation in the CBD, and slapped a half-a-million-dollar fine on any taxi or Uber driver caught taking someone to a protest — and the protesters mysteriously went away. The governments here are a lot less tolerant of anti-lockdowners and similar types than most other governments seem to be.

Admittedly, it seems clear from the last line that he’s doing this as a rhetorical device, not proposing anything seriously.

I don't see any reason to believe that.

Well, he does himself admit that the proposal ‘Seems kind of harsh’ — even he realises it’s extreme, though unfortunately he doesn’t seem to realise exactly how extreme. And he’s clearly making a point about leftists (an incorrect one, but nonetheless he argues this): ‘isn’t this the flip side of what they want to do to us?’.

All this being said, it’s probably a futile exercise to read too much into a series of poorly-written Twitter posts. You could argue it either way.

But still I find it kind of shocking someone could even consider saying something like this.

The US right-wing has, for decades or generations, thrived on saying shocking things. It's a subculture where, the more shocking things you're willing to say, the more you'll be rewarded - with fame, respect, status, money, political power. Every iteration makes them go farther out there. Each time they do, some people for whom the latest stuff goes too far leave the camp, driving the "average out-there-ness" (for lack of a better term) of those who remain even higher.

Oh, I don’t think this is just a right-wing thing. It happens on the extreme left as well: https://unherd.com/2020/01/cast-out-how ... ty-spiral/. The main difference is that extreme right-wingers are more prominent in mainstream politics than extreme left-wingers are, making them correspondingly more dangerous. (Or at least, this is my impression of the US. Here in Australia neither side has become particularly extreme yet.)