Elections in various countries

[MacAnDàil]

What seems eccentric depends on the country : the Pirates are major parties in the Czech Republic and Iceland.

It does seem Mélenchon would have benefited by reacting more calmly but it does seem unfair that the France Insoumise are disproportionally affected by the police searches when other politicians with similar accusations don't get the same treatment. Or Benalla for that matter.

I thought I had a dirty mind but it had never occured to me to interpret 'France Insoumise' in such a way.

[Ares Land]

What seems eccentric depends on the country : the Pirates are major parties in the Czech Republic and Iceland.

Yes; perhaps I should mention that unlike in other European countries, the Pirate Party never really took off in France. Back in 2014, they did their best score, around 1% in my electoral precinct.

It does seem Mélenchon would have benefited by reacting more calmly but it does seem unfair that the France Insoumise are disproportionally affected by the police searches when other politicians with similar accusations don't get the same treatment. Or Benalla for that matter.

That's debatable.
The way the Benalla case has been handled is suspicious. For those not in the know: Alexandre Benalla worked for Macron in an entirely unclear capacity: he was basically, the unofficial head of security and handy man; everything about his job completely flouts existing practices and regulation. He was caught beating up demonstrators in May. There has been a police cover-up and the prosecution has been curiously slow. It's likely our former Minister of the Interior, Gérard Collomb resigned over being bypassed in this case (it's also probable he was expected to act as scapegoat, which he refused to do).
It should be mentioned that state prosecutors ultimately report to the Minister of the Interior and the President through their hierarchy; which makes all judicial investigations in political parties look a little shady.

On the other hand... well there are suspicions of fraud in Mélenchon's case; the search was legal and perhaps Mélenchon's over-the-top reaction has something to do with the suspicious evidence that turned up in the search. Similar searches have been conducted at several other parties' headquarters before.

On the whole I don't buy into the idea that Mélenchon is receiving special attention. It just doesn't make political sense. Mélenchon and La France Insoumise are ideal left-wing opposition. What Macron needs is scaring off the moderates so they vote for LREM, the 'safe' party and Mélechon is excellent at scaring off the moderate left.

[MacAnDàil]

See here for how 17 other politicians, likewise accused in the same context, have had zero searches.

The things taken during the search do not correspond with the supposed motives for the search: book ideas were taken, but tax forms were ignored.

[Ares Land]

Well, I think I could go on all night bashing that blog post, but that wouldn't be fair to those on the board who don't read French

François Ruffin dénonçait le « deux poids, deux mesures ». On ne fera pas ici la liste des exemples qui justifient cette appréciation.

François Ruffin denounced the "double standards". We will list here the examples that justify that assessment

Too bad. Someone might go check on those MEPs that were accused and see that while their personal homes, unlike Mélenchon, have not been searched, their party seats, like Mélenchon's, have and some time earlier.

I do agree that there are double standards at work. Especially with respect to the Benalla case, and the power the executive branch has over judicial investigations is unhealthy, to put it mildly.
But I don't see how it would make sense for Macron to weaken la France Insoumise and not the RN, as the author suggests.
RN is a great foil for Macron -- and I fully expect it to be used as a such in 2022. What the author fails to see is that there many on the left that would never vote for Mélenchon. Weakening LFI could conceivably leave a space for a left-wing candidate that could appeal to the moderates. An attack on LFI would be a dangerous maneuver for Macron... As it is, Mélenchon is the best opposition he could dream of.

In other French politics news:

• Contrary to what I am assumed, Ségolène Royal is apparently not interested in being a candidate. Well that's a relief. Faced with a choice between Royal and Macron, I don't know what I would've done. Maybe move to Australia.
• Macron had a few kind words to say about Maréchal Pétain. Doesn't the guy have at least one advisor that could be tasked with preventing him to put his foot in his mouth, again?

[MacAnDàil]

I was in my Theory of argumentation class today and the professor said he knew people who preferred Hamon or Mélenchon but who voted Macron on the basis of a 'useful vote' to keep Fillon from getting to the second round. So Mélenchon, and Hamon besides, has a larger potential voter base than it would seem.

[Ares Land]

I was in my Theory of argumentation class today and the professor said he knew people who preferred Hamon or Mélenchon but who voted Macron on the basis of a 'useful vote' to keep Fillon from getting to the second round. So Mélenchon, and Hamon besides, has a larger potential voter base than it would seem.

Yes, Macron is a paradox: a conservative elected by social-democrats... Or more charitably, he's the Condorcet winner of the election: the majority's second favourite candidate.

The real problem with Mélenchon's strategy is that nothing he says is particularly reassuring to the moderate left. And his anti-EU rhetoric will create a divide with that electorate...

[mèþru]

How unsurprising: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46254625

[mèþru]

https://twitter.com/mru95111093/status/ ... 8333905929

[Ares Land]

I'm always a little surprised to see that some people can read "AirBnB in a West Bank settlement" and see no problem with that!

As for AirBnB, I'm divided on the issue. I'm in favor in principle, but concerned about the effect on housing, especially living in a city with both housing problems and a limitless supply of tourists. OTOH an early equivalent of AirBnB did allow me to find a place to crash for a few months when I arrived and couldn't get a rental...

[MacAnDàil]

How unsurprising: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46254625

Could he not just give to charity that way a corrupt person wouldn't benefit financially?

[Raphael]

How unsurprising: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46254625

Could he not just give to charity that way a corrupt person wouldn't benefit financially?

Good question.

[Ares Land]

Not really an election, but still, political news.
You may have heard about the yellow safety vests protests.

(I don't know if you have: right-wingers here love to suggest that the whole world watches us, ready to pull out investment as soon as there's a slight chance of unrest. It's flattering, but I don't think France is that important.)


Long story short: protests started over rises in fuel taxes have degenerated over a few weeks; we've had full blown riots in Paris last weekend.
The government is trying to back down carefully; Macron has, basically, not said anything. The opposition is busy gloating coming up with helpful proposals.

I'm divided on the issue myself.

Con: Protests discussed over social networks? Conspiracy theories? No representatives? Political violence? Death threats? Sure, that's going to end well...

Pro: On the other hand, reactions to the protesters demands range from stupidity to disgusting elitism.
Apparently, they're incoherent, or as left-wing rag Libération puts it: "a jumble of miscalleneous claims" (let me stress that Libération is a left-wing paper. Curiously, le Monde, otherwise closer to Macron's line is a lot more sympathetic.)
Let's take a look at those claims. Protesters demand: less taxes for low incomes, ecological transition that doesn't punish the working class, raising the minimum wage, better pensions, indexing wages on inflation, rent control, all to be financed by taxes on the rich and corporate profits.

Crazy nonsense! Who dares suggest that wages are too low? Obviously we need five more years of austerity; any suggestion that we do otherwise is populist nonsense. Let them eat cake!


Protesters also demand Macron's head, er, I mean his resignation. That's not going to happen, obviously, but still: Macron is soooooo fucked... And the Louis XVI impersonation is not helping.

(Macron thinks he's the next de Gaulle, or so it seems -- but, you know, maybe it'll turn out he wasn't even the next François Hollande).

[Raphael]

Let's take a look at those claims. Protesters demand: less taxes for low incomes, ecological transition that doesn't punish the working class, raising the minimum wage, better pensions, indexing wages on inflation, rent control, all to be financed by taxes on the rich and corporate profits.

Interesting information. English- and German language news outlets seem to report mainly that the protestors are all about opposing high fuel taxes, which would make them sort of right-wing, or, at most, people who might see themselves as left-wing but haven't really noticed what the left is to a large extent about these days. Your information, on the other hand, places them clearly on the left side of the political spectrum.

[Ares Land]

Interesting information. English- and German language news outlets seem to report mainly that the protestors are all about opposing high fuel taxes, which would make them sort of right-wing, or, at most, people who might see themselves as left-wing but haven't really noticed what the left is to a large extent about these days. Your information, on the other hand, places them clearly on the left side of the political spectrum.

It's hard to say, really. Frankly I had them as yet another right-wing protest; it started out pretty similar to the 2013 Bonnets rouge red caps movement (makes you wonder what the next mass protests will be called. The pink balaclavas? The yellow turbans? Er, maybe not that one.)
Some of their "representatives" are clearly far-right; one of them has demanded that general de Villiers (a former chief of staff) take over and of course, another is supposedly "psychic", others are really into conspiracy theories.
The main difficulty is that the movement rejects violently the idea of "representatives" and the yellow vests are pretty adamantly apolitical.
Lists of demands, and comments from random yellow vests place them firmly on the Left (frankly, it's pretty much Mélenchon's electoral platform. Which is pretty suspicious in itself!)
So all of this can be pretty confusing.

Myself, I don't think it is that confusing, though.
While Macron is supposedly a centrist, or even left-wing (!), he's clearly a pretty traditional conservative, into supply-side policies and trickle-down economics. So it's not really a surprise that people opposing him would support traditional, left-wing policies.
It's not really all about the oil, either. Or the environment. People don't care about fuel prices that much, and are usually in favour of environmental policies. The real problem is that the taxes were really not about the environment, but about balancing the budget and they disproportionally affect working-class people!

So what happens next?

The treatment Macron got while trying to talk to protesters last night is a bad sign: French people can be pretty rude, but we don't habitually call the President a bastard and a son of a bitch to his face.
The government has announced a "moratoire", that is a moratorium (it's just as pretentious in French as it is in English). The tax hikes are suspended for six months -- and the energy prices will be fixed for the same duration (which is something the government can't actually do, but, hey, whatever).
The consensus is that it's too little too late.

But it might work for the time being; not that the protesters will be convinced, but there could be a silent majority getting sick over the violence.
Or maybe it'll get even worse over the weekend. I really have no idea.

In the long run, I'm sure Macron is fucked.
It's pretty clear that most French are not interested in a Thatcherite reform package, no matter what colour you paint it. Conservatives - who are interested - won't trust Macron: he's forever tainted with the brush of illegitimacy from beating Fillon, and now it's clear he's not good at law and order. Macronists' contempt for working class people has grown to disgusting levels and that's not going to end well for them.

The real opposition could well be between France Insoumise and the far-right now, with Macron crushed in between.
Macron was elected on a platform of "I'm not Le Pen and Mélenchon is scary too" but a year and a half in, the economy still shows no sign of recovery, taxes are higher, and violent revolution is now a possibility. (A remote possibility, sure, but the fact that it's even considered a risk is unprecedented).

[Ares Land]

Sorry it was long, and rambling, and I have one more thing to add...

Contrary to what some Americans are saying on Twitter, nobody is chanting "we want Trump" in Paris. There are some obvious parallels to 2016, of course. But nobody wants Trump in France.
We have some Trump supportes here; they're usually the kind of people that believe that the moon landing was a fake.

Also, note to Donald Trump, in case he's reading: saying you support the yellow vests will actually strengthen Macron. Not really what you want, I guess.

[Salmoneus]

To an outsider, Macron vs the protesters looks a lot like a classic liberal technocrats vs populists dispute. Which explains both why Macron campaigned with relatively little reference to left/right ideology, and why the protesters are incoherent in their left/right policies - populism appeals to both left and right, as Le Pen and Melenchon can attest.

And it matches the reorientations toward a liberalism vs populism axis in both the US and the UK. In both those countries, however, the reorientation seems to have failed, or at least to have stalled: Trump's populism was quickly hijacked by the Republicans (because Trump lacks both political intelligence and ideological conviction), while in the UK it seems as though the rigid two-party system is resisting he shift (although it may yet prove that the shift breaks the party system instead).


Meanwhile,

general de Villiers (a former chief of staff)

Bloody hell, they're everywhere!
I was just reading about 15th century France, and up pop the Villierses (Villiersi?) near the top of the French bureaucracy. That made me think of how, two centuries later, the Villiersi would take over the British government (George Villiers, boyfriend of James I and de facto PM; George Villiers* (his son), best friend of Charles II, and de facto PM (joint leader of the C.A.B.A.L.**); Barbara Villiers, girlfriend of Charles II, who had the PM removed to allow George Villiers to take over, etc). That made me wonder what Theresa Villiers was doing now - she was our Secretary of State for Northern Ireland until May kicked her out. She's oddly vanished - she was a leading Brexiteer, but not been heard from since. Apparently she was one of the most active campaigners against Corbyn on the anti-semitism issue, but I can't say I heard her. Anyway, between the 17th century villiersi and the 21st century one, they've contributed iirc over a dozen Prime Ministers, although not under that surname.

So I was both surprised and... well, not surprised... to hear you say there was another one of them at the heart of French government...


[although admittedly, it's possible the French de Villiers and English Villiers families are unrelated and coincidental dynasties...?]


EDIT: wait, is 'general de Villiers' different from Philippe Marie Jean Joseph Le Jolis de Villiers de Saintignon, Viscount de Villiers?

[Ares Land]

To an outsider, Macron vs the protesters looks a lot like a classic liberal technocrats vs populists dispute. Which explains both why Macron campaigned with relatively little reference to left/right ideology, and why the protesters are incoherent in their left/right policies - populism appeals to both left and right, as Le Pen and Melenchon can attest.

And it matches the reorientations toward a liberalism vs populism axis in both the US and the UK. In both those countries, however, the reorientation seems to have failed, or at least to have stalled: Trump's populism was quickly hijacked by the Republicans (because Trump lacks both political intelligence and ideological conviction), while in the UK it seems as though the rigid two-party system is resisting he shift (although it may yet prove that the shift breaks the party system instead).

You can certainly look at it as a populist vs. technocrat dispute!
The tactics are interesting to watch.
Macron and LREM, right now, are trying to bring back scared sheeps back into the fold by playing the 'reasonable people vs. populists' angle for all it's worth. I'm not sure that'll work.
Part of the left is fully behind the protesters: they feel -- correctly -- that they can either support them or die.
RN has of course tried to make use of the protests, unsuccessfully -- but they're doing well in opinion polls, of course.

general de Villiers (a former chief of staff)

[although admittedly, it's possible the French de Villiers and English Villiers families are unrelated and coincidental dynasties...?]

Yep, they're unrelated. Well, both are ultimately from Normandy, so there could be a very distant relation I suppose, but I don't think so. 'Villiers' is a very common placename.
The family's pretty old, though - the earliest noble ancestor was captain of archers to Henry IV apparently.

EDIT: wait, is 'general de Villiers' different from Philippe Marie Jean Joseph Le Jolis de Villiers de Saintignon, Viscount de Villiers?

Pierre de Villiers is his younger brother.
For anyone interested in what our aristocratic families are up to:
Philippe [snip] de Villiers is a polician, former minister and unhappy presidential candidate, a competent businessman, and a complete right-wing nut, of the aristocratic, traditional Catholic faction that believes the country's gone to the dogs ever since the Revolution.
The general (his brother)'s main claim to fame is being unceremoniously fired by Macron over a budget dispute. He's said to be a very competent general officer (hence the outrage at his firing) and as far as I know, not particularly interested in politics.
Rumors of Pierre de Villiers' political ambitions are conspiracy theory material at this point, of course. But we're through the looking glass here, so who knows?

[Salmoneus]

You can certainly look at it as a populist vs. technocrat dispute!
The tactics are interesting to watch.
Macron and LREM, right now, are trying to bring back scared sheeps back into the fold by playing the 'reasonable people vs. populists' angle for all it's worth. I'm not sure that'll work.

I suspect it will in the long run - maybe not enough to win him reelection, but enough to defuse the protests. The problem with leaderless mass protests is that they struggle to actually do anything, because they have no strategy. So they get outmanoeuvred. As the death toll rises, and as the public profile of the protesters is hijacked by the most extreme and unacceptable elements (who are almost always the most organised), public sentiment will turn against them.

Yep, they're unrelated. Well, both are ultimately from Normandy, so there could be a very distant relation I suppose, but I don't think so. 'Villiers' is a very common placename.
The family's pretty old, though - the earliest noble ancestor was captain of archers to Henry IV apparently.

Yeah, looking at it the English ones sort of come out of nowhere, largely on the grounds of being pretty and sexually open-minded. As a result of which they've contributed between 16 and 18 prime ministers, depending when you start counting.

Oh, I forgot my footnotes, which are completely off-topic, but...

More: show

*George Villiers was also the coolest man alive. He was considered one of the greatest swordsmen in the world - as a boy, he was once attacked by eight fully-armed Roundhead soldiers, and killed them all, single-handedly, without any injury to himself. Part of the reason he was in control of the country was that he could fabricate matters of honour with other politicians, and threaten to duel them unless they obeyed him or resigned. He once slept with the wife of an Earl, killed the Earl in a duel when he protested, in front of the Earl's wife, then threw the wife over his horse and rode her off to the country to live in an apparently happy threesome until legal uproar died down (this was the eventual cause of his downfall, when the woman's son sued him years later). Openly bisexual, he was considered the most skilled lover in England. He was also considered the most skillfull hunter in England - four centuries later, there are still dozens of hunting songs about him preserved in the folk memory in various rural areas. Indeed, he is believed to have invented fox-hunting. It helped that he was the greatest rider in England (he also won races as a jockey). Coincidentally, he was the best violinist (well, fiddler) in England. He was a noted alchemist, and though he didn't turn lead into gold, it was said that of all Europe's budding chemists, he had come closer to it than any other. He was the best dancer in England. He could out-drink and out-fornicate Charles II, his childhood friend. To pass the time between the drinking, the sex, the sword-fighting, the dancing, the fiddling and the recreational alchemy, he used to do amusing impersonations of celebrities - his talent for mimicry was considered "unsurpassed". He was adored by the public - perhaps the most popular man in England. Although famed in his youth as an atheist, when he got older and a little tired of his decadent youthful ways, he became one of England's leading theologians (he promoted religious tolerance). In his spare time, he was a talented though undeveloped poet, and a playwright, who wrote a famous satire of the excesses of contemporary theatre (as a play set behind the scenes of a theatre, it's one of the first of that genre), reflecting his reputation as one of the funniest men, and one of the most cultured men, in England. Ironically, he died of foxhunting.
Dryden summed him up thusly:
A man so various that he seemed to be
Not one, but all mankind's epitome;
Stiff in opinions, always in the wrong,
Was everything by starts and nothing long;
But, in the course of one revolving moon
Was chymist, fiddler, statesman and buffoon.
Beggar'd by fools, whom still he found too late,
He had his jest, but they had his estate

** yes, England was once ruled by the C.A.B.A.L. - although the word did exist as an obscure borrowing, it's this use, describing the Cabal Ministry, which originated as an acronym of the leader's titles, which popularised the word and gave it its modern connotations. It ended as well as you might think - of they five men, they respectively ended killing themselves in disgrace, impeached, impeached, arrested for high treason, and forced to live in Scotland.

Wait, do you mean your Henry IV, or ours?

[Ares Land]

I suspect it will in the long run - maybe not enough to win him reelection, but enough to defuse the protests. The problem with leaderless mass protests is that they struggle to actually do anything, because they have no strategy. So they get outmanoeuvred. As the death toll rises, and as the public profile of the protesters is hijacked by the most extreme and unacceptable elements (who are almost always the most organised), public sentiment will turn against them.

I don't think I can really predict anything... but if I had to try, I would say the movement will slowly defuse (though not without spreading to the unions...) over the holidays. And then another crisis will erupt next year (possibly over the withholding tax) and then another, in the kind of excruciating downward spiral experienced by Hollande, only more so.

Wait, do you mean your Henry IV, or ours?

Ours. (Which dates the family back to the Renaissance. Although of course the modern Villiers can trace their lineage to Hugues Capet too, like any good aristocrat!)

[Raphael]

Thank you for the information, Ars Lande and Sal!