In a scenario where the Boxers overran the legations and the reaction to the Boxer Rebellion was harsher with China partitioned into colonies and protectorates*, how would the baihua(s) of post-colonial China develop?
*including a Yangtze protectorate, French protectorate of Yunnan and Liangguang, a former Russian North, Japanese Fujian and South Manchuria, German Shandong etc.
At the time, missionaries preferred using local topolects instead of wenyan or baihua to comunicate, and used romanizations as well
The Baihuas in a Postcolonial China
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zompist
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Re: The Baihuas in a Postcolonial China
Moving this--- all "what would have happened" stuff should go in the conlang/conworld section.
As to your question, it depends on where the boundaries were and how long the colonial situation lasted. FWIW the administrative language of Hong Kong and Macau was Cantonese.
As to your question, it depends on where the boundaries were and how long the colonial situation lasted. FWIW the administrative language of Hong Kong and Macau was Cantonese.
Re: The Baihuas in a Postcolonial China
A very important question is whether the anti-colonial movements in the different protectorates would be based on Pan-Chinese or regional nationalisms, and what the preferred medium of communication of the intellectuals would be. China had a written language at that point; I guess the parallels with Italian and French nationalism show that Chinese intellectuals would treasure that as both a reminder of old glory and as a tool to coordinate with their peers in other territories. There would be meetings and congresses, during which spoken Mandarin would be the obvious means of communication for the intellectuals who also would provide the ideological underpinning of the anti-Colonial movement(s).
The colonial powers might want to counteract this by strengthening local / regional nationalisms, but that would put the local nationalists in a kind of Quisling situation, and probably would work only in the non-Han areas.
If we don't assume world history to go substantially different from our time line, WW I with Germany losing its colonies to Japan would still happen, as well as the October revolution with repercussions on the Russian Zone, which probably also would be snapped up by Japan. Japan would still be an expansionist power, which would, however, have to confront the other colonial powers, probably with a story of an Asian bloc of nations led by Japan, similar to the story it tried to sell in South-East Asia. So if we assume that we again get a Revanchist and Fascist Germany, it would make sense for Japan to join it in *WW II, as Germany doesn't have any territorial interests in the area (any more). A significant number of Chinese nationalists might actually fight alongside the Japanese in this scenario, either believing the Japanese promises or hoping to establish a Chinese military presence on the ground that would be able to force the Japanese to accept an independent China after throwing out the colonial powers. So a likely outcome of that would be an independent, united China (maybe with different borders, especially without some or all of of Manjuria, Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjian), either as a Japanese ally or granted independence by the *Western Allies, to peel it off from the alliance with Japan or because they don't have the strength to reestablish the protectorates after defeating Japan.
A lot of things are up in the air in such a scenario. But even if we assume that the *Western Allies win and even go to the length of restoring the protectorates, decolonialisation is around the corner, the USSR will support Communist insurgencies, etc. - I don't think the protectorate system would last beyond the 1960s, and the long period of anti-Colonial struggle would actually strengthen Han nationalism and the role of Mandarin as an unifying language.
And even if we assume the scenario diverges more from our timeline, I assume that an anti-Colonial struggle would happen, that those fighting in it would dream of a great, united China, and that the Western powers would be unable to hold on to their colonies much longer than they did in our time line, so the most likely outcome of the protectorates scenarion would be a united China with Mandarin sweeping everything before it, as in our TL.
IMO, if you want scenarios that strengthens the Baihuas without going back beyond the 20th century, I'd propose two scenarios where Han nationalism is weakened by being in power, but ineffectual, or by being associated with a dreaded bully:
(1) A unified but ineffectual China, trying to control and homogenise the country, but being too weak and ineffectual to succeed, creating all kinds of regional resistance - that might be an Empire trying to reform but with only limited success and a brutal but inefffectual approach to resistance (like late Tsarist Russia), or a Chinese Republic that doesn't descend into warlordism, but isn't strong enough to really centralise the Country, but tries nevertheless and thus creates all kind of separatist movements..
(2) Descent into warlordism, but without any player emerging who is strong enough to unite China; the strongest player to be based in the North under an ideology and maybe leading personality that is so repulsive that it gives Han nationalism a bad name (some utterly brutal type of Fascism, Communism, reactionary Imperialism), leading the other territories to define themselves by other ideologies and regional identities over the next decades and generations (like nowadays Taiwan, but with an even stronger emphasis on local identity).
The colonial powers might want to counteract this by strengthening local / regional nationalisms, but that would put the local nationalists in a kind of Quisling situation, and probably would work only in the non-Han areas.
If we don't assume world history to go substantially different from our time line, WW I with Germany losing its colonies to Japan would still happen, as well as the October revolution with repercussions on the Russian Zone, which probably also would be snapped up by Japan. Japan would still be an expansionist power, which would, however, have to confront the other colonial powers, probably with a story of an Asian bloc of nations led by Japan, similar to the story it tried to sell in South-East Asia. So if we assume that we again get a Revanchist and Fascist Germany, it would make sense for Japan to join it in *WW II, as Germany doesn't have any territorial interests in the area (any more). A significant number of Chinese nationalists might actually fight alongside the Japanese in this scenario, either believing the Japanese promises or hoping to establish a Chinese military presence on the ground that would be able to force the Japanese to accept an independent China after throwing out the colonial powers. So a likely outcome of that would be an independent, united China (maybe with different borders, especially without some or all of of Manjuria, Mongolia, Tibet and Xinjian), either as a Japanese ally or granted independence by the *Western Allies, to peel it off from the alliance with Japan or because they don't have the strength to reestablish the protectorates after defeating Japan.
A lot of things are up in the air in such a scenario. But even if we assume that the *Western Allies win and even go to the length of restoring the protectorates, decolonialisation is around the corner, the USSR will support Communist insurgencies, etc. - I don't think the protectorate system would last beyond the 1960s, and the long period of anti-Colonial struggle would actually strengthen Han nationalism and the role of Mandarin as an unifying language.
And even if we assume the scenario diverges more from our timeline, I assume that an anti-Colonial struggle would happen, that those fighting in it would dream of a great, united China, and that the Western powers would be unable to hold on to their colonies much longer than they did in our time line, so the most likely outcome of the protectorates scenarion would be a united China with Mandarin sweeping everything before it, as in our TL.
IMO, if you want scenarios that strengthens the Baihuas without going back beyond the 20th century, I'd propose two scenarios where Han nationalism is weakened by being in power, but ineffectual, or by being associated with a dreaded bully:
(1) A unified but ineffectual China, trying to control and homogenise the country, but being too weak and ineffectual to succeed, creating all kinds of regional resistance - that might be an Empire trying to reform but with only limited success and a brutal but inefffectual approach to resistance (like late Tsarist Russia), or a Chinese Republic that doesn't descend into warlordism, but isn't strong enough to really centralise the Country, but tries nevertheless and thus creates all kind of separatist movements..
(2) Descent into warlordism, but without any player emerging who is strong enough to unite China; the strongest player to be based in the North under an ideology and maybe leading personality that is so repulsive that it gives Han nationalism a bad name (some utterly brutal type of Fascism, Communism, reactionary Imperialism), leading the other territories to define themselves by other ideologies and regional identities over the next decades and generations (like nowadays Taiwan, but with an even stronger emphasis on local identity).