Elections in various countries

[Ares Land]

Macron apparently only won decisively among old people. Therefore, going into the runoff he has walked back a retirement reform so that he will be more popular with old people. Brilliant strategy. Well done. Retirement ages are like minimum wages that never adjust for inflation, but in reverse.

The main point of contention with that reform is retirement age. By and large old people won't really be affected. It's one reason why Macron does better among pensioners; the main explanation is probably that he's a serious looking young man that probably won't rock the boat too much.
In fact he hasn't walked back the reform; he just emitted some non-committal centrist noise about being open to discussion.

That being said, yeah, you are correct that he generally set a pretty low bar. He had a very poor reelection campaign, really.

I perhaps could have been clearer in that I, and I think the editorial I mention, recognize that it's a bigger problem than one person can solve, but I think one problem with Macron is that he adopts a tone as though he will solve it. I prefer him by a wide mile over Le Pen and other such people but here we are.

Definitely agree. Supposedly the Ukrainians came up with a verb, 'to macronize' (in reference to Macron's talk with Putin) which essentially means 'acting very concerned and very decisive about an issue, while actually not doing anything about it.' Looks like they have pretty much figured out the guy.

Oh, I'm aware. I think Macron is likely to win the runoff. But we should not assume that Melenchon votes are just STV Macron votes, so I wouldn't say that Melenchon's good showing among young voters means that Macron will do well with that demographic in the runoff. I mean probably, but it's not guaranteed.

Early polls are pretty depressing. Some predict something like 51% Macron, 49% Le Pen (well within the margin of error.)
More depressing figures: among Mélenchon voters, about one third will vote Macron, one third would abstain, one third would vote Le Pen. (Seriously, what's wrong with these people? Then again, the French left has grown pretty nasty of late, so it's not very surprising.)

The fact that every French election turns into a near-miss with Armageddon is already kind of disturbing, but maybe that says more about the two-round system than the volatility of French politics.

I read De Gaulle's thoughts on the subject (he's the one who pretty much came up single-handedly with the system.)
The general idea is that the choice rests entirely on the voter. One positive feature of the system is that the far-right can't really come into power through weird parliamentary maneuvers or unholy political alliances (as happened recently in Italy.) Also none of that American nonsense about great electors. So ultimately the voters are fully responsible for whatever happens.

De Gaulle's idea was that voters can and should be fully trusted to do the right thing.
I'd say it makes a lot of sense. If you can't trust the voters, why bother with democracy in the first place? We'll test that interesting theory in two weeks.

My own take on this is that ultimately, yeah, voters will do the right thing and that a lot of left-wingers that currently plan to abstain or vote Le Pen will eventually come to their senses. I'm still very worried though.

[Raphael]

a lot of left-wingers that currently plan to abstain or vote Le Pen

What? Ok, make that WHAT?

[Vardelm]

De Gaulle's idea was that voters can and should be fully trusted to do the right thing.
I'd say it makes a lot of sense. If you can't trust the voters, why bother with democracy in the first place? We'll test that interesting theory in two weeks.

I'd like to believe that, and I think many people do believe that. Events over the last 15 years leave me skeptical, especially the past few years. Misinformation plays a key role, and frankly a general lack of knowledge and intelligence does too. A grocery working at the self-checkout this morning didn't know that COVID numbers are very low in our area now. She thought they were sky-high and going up: "that's what the news says". I see this a lot, and I don't know that the average person now has the capacity to keep up with and understand the media/information landscape. That doesn't bode well IMO.

My own take on this is that ultimately, yeah, voters won't do the right things and that a lot of left-wingers that currently plan to abstain or vote Le Pen will eventually come to their senses. I'm still very worried though.

This confuses me. If left-wing voters "come to their senses", doesn't that mean they WILL do the "right thing"?

[Ares Land]

This confuses me. If left-wing voters "come to their senses", doesn't that mean they WILL do the "right thing"?

I meant they will do the right thing, sorry!

[Ares Land]

I'd like to believe that, and I think many people do believe that. Events over the last 15 years leave me skeptical, especially the past few years. Misinformation plays a key role, and frankly a general lack of knowledge and intelligence does too. A grocery working at the self-checkout this morning didn't know that COVID numbers are very low in our area now. She thought they were sky-high and going up: "that's what the news says". I see this a lot, and I don't know that the average person now has the capacity to keep up with and understand the media/information landscape. That doesn't bode well IMO

Collective intelligence is at play here. If you ask me the COVID numbers in the area, I'll get these wildly wrong (I follow them pretty distantly). Now ask a few thousands people in my area, the average answer will approximate the correct answer.
Voting ups the stakes of course (your choice will have consequences on your life for the next five years), and the question is after all, a very simple one. So presumably the odds of getting the correct answer are good.

We'll test that interesting theory very soon; I'm not honestly very confident.

TBH if fourty-five million people can't get the correct answer to a question like 'how about giving fascism another chance?', it means it's high time to question the whole 'democracy' thing.

a lot of left-wingers that currently plan to abstain or vote Le Pen

What? Ok, make that WHAT?

Yep, this is actually happening. Our left-wing really is in a pretty bad state.

[Raphael]

TBH if fourty-five million people can't get the correct answer to a question like 'how about giving fascism another chance?', it means it's high time to question the whole 'democracy' thing.

Problem is, once you do that - you're already uncomfortably close to the fascists yourself.

[Ares Land]

Problem is, once you do that - you're already uncomfortably close to the fascists yourself.

Le Pen being elected would be something of a political singularity: none of our expectations would hold beyond that point.
We'd be faced with a situation where the 'liberal' and 'democracy' parts of 'liberal democracy' would be in direct contradiction: either we respect human rights, or the popular vote. Much like Popper's paradox of tolerance.

I think Germany has a very good answer to that question, in allowing that some parties or ideas be declared beyond the pale. The problem is that it took 12 years of Nazism and a world war to get there.

[MacAnDàil]

I think disinformation is a major factor in the few left-wingers who are considering voting for the discriminatory police state. I know someone through La France Insoumise who says they intend voting Le Pen on the second round because Macron would be wanting to put people "into slavery" and that all the Macronist ministers are under investigation for transgenderism. It's not even close to the truth. And something about Freemasons and VKontakte (an internet network often used by Nazis). So basically it seems to wind up as: voting for the far right because the far right managed to convince them that the reasonable candidate is actually the far right one. It's absolute nonsense, but apparently some people believe it just because they want to avoid 'mainstream media' and end up falling into much worse stuff. It's very disappointing and worrying but the people modt likely to make the right decisions are maybe not those who waste much of their time on (anti-)social networks.

Another factor is that people say "oh she isn't the same as her dad". But the main difference is that she talks more in dog whistles, in insinuation. But, at the end of the day, whether you say "sandniggers out" or "everything reserved for those who only have French citizenship", the consequences for immigrants like me are just the same.

[Ares Land]

I definitel agree, on both counts.

We seem to have collectively decided that Le Pen is a candidate like any other and that having actual fascists as the main opposition force is a perfectly normal things. This is horribly depressing.

Disinformation is key, indeed. I've talked to Le Pen voters. They're so immmersed in propaganda they practically live in a parallel universe.

(Le Pen's campaign is pretty bad, she really came across as incompetent in the debates and opinion polls are slightly more optimistic. So there's that. Though I'll be glad on Sunday night when all of this is over.)

[Moose-tache]

In America we have a generation of Boomers and Xers who grew up feeling like anti-authority rebels, but it turns out their beef was never with society on a structural level; they just liked being iconoclasts. Now the politics of rebellion have changed. When you meet a hip, youth-savvy revolutionary, you can no longer guess if they are left-wing or right-wing. So there’s a perfect opportunity for these older, mostly white, contrarians to maintain their rebellious attitude while switching the target of their ire to woke snowflakes and protesters. When there are centrists or Liberals in charge, they can still frame this as being against the establishment, even if the cause they’re fighting for is a radical right agenda instead of a radical left one. Personally, I call this the “Roseanne to Roseanne Pipeline.”

Do they have something like this in France? Have the children of ‘68 turned into a bunch of delusional crypto-Fascists? And if so, does this explain some of the more irrational opposition to centrists like Macron?

[Ares Land]

Oh, yes, definitely.

I think it's somehow more a Gen X thing than a Boomer thing though.

[Ares Land]

Macron won. That's a relief.

[Raphael]

What about the legislature?

[WeepingElf]

Macron won. That's a relief.

Indeed!

[zompist]

Macron won. That's a relief.

It is! It looks like the results are 59%-41%. In US terms this would be a landslide (it about matches Reagan's 1984 results).

But I understand the frustration... not only having a fascist get a total that high, but having the alternative be a centrist, and the most boring of diacritical marks.

[Ares Land]

What about the legislature?

Legislative elections will be held on the 12th and 19th of June. We can be pretty much certain that Macron will get a majority.

There will be an electoral alliance of left-wing parties under the umbrella of La France Insoumise. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has begun his campaign between the two presidential round (a very ungraceful thing to do, given the fascism thing, if you ask me) -- he calls for voters to grant him a majority and make him Prime Minister. This won't happen: first, the numbers aren't there. second, the general unpleasant attitude of LFI will lose them some voters. Given the electoral alliance and the left being more or less united now, he may get a large-ish minority.
The RN will attempt the same feat. They're not very good or very motivated at legislative elections, or at legislative work (it's hard work, you have to go vote and get in debate, it's all very tiring; they very much prefer to sit there and grumble about foreigners.) They'll probably get more representatives than usual, though. They did rather well in the elections.

It is! It looks like the results are 59%-41%. In US terms this would be a landslide (it about matches Reagan's 1984 results).

But I understand the frustration... not only having a fascist get a total that high, but having the alternative be a centrist, and the most boring of diacritical marks.

That's a very good summary of the situation right now! It's a landslide in French terms, too. Just not as big as we could have hoped for.

---

On a more personal note -- you may skip that rant:
I'm personally pretty mad at the French left right now. LFI -- which is now, by far, the main left-wing force in this country -- has behaved in an incredibly crass manner in the past two weeks. They've gone around parading as if they'd won, bullied Greens and communists, tried to claim credit for Le Pen losing even though they called for voters to abstain...
Besides, a way too high number of left-wing voters either didn't bother voting, or even voted for Le Pen. (She actually won by a landslide - up to 70%! - in the Antilles, a left-wing stronghold.) It seems a troubling number of left-wingers feel their retirement age is more important than, you know, what happens to minorities. When they're not outright buying into conspiracy theories (as seems to be the case in the Antilles.)
Basically, I think the French left needs to collectively go to its room, get a time out and think long and hard about itself before thinking about winning elections.

I have a lot of misgivings about Macron. But all in all, I can't be dissatisfied with the election results, because it turns out he was the least evil of the possible options.

[zompist]

I only learned today that Mélenchon advocating leaving NATO, which he called "useless". Apparently now he thinks France should delay this a bit, on the principle I suppose that you shouldn't cancel your insurance while your house is burning down, but only right afterwards.

[alice]

But I understand the frustration... not only having a fascist get a total that high, but having the alternative be a centrist, and the most boring of diacritical marks.

Not for nothing is he known in these parts as "Monsieur Circonflèxe".

[Ares Land]

I only learned today that Mélenchon advocating leaving NATO, which he called "useless". Apparently now he thinks France should delay this a bit, on the principle I suppose that you shouldn't cancel your insurance while your house is burning down, but only right afterwards.

When you're out of your depth, cheap anti-Americanism is apparently a good substitute for foreign policy.
I assume it really means leaving NATO's integrated command structure, not NATO itself (which would merely unnecessarily increase our military budget) but with Mélenchon, you can never be sure.
This comes up perennially in French politics, because apparently de Gaulle's disagreements with Johnson back in the '60s are a national treasure that must be forever revered.

[Moose-tache]

Ah, de Gaulle. The Scrappy Doo of world leaders.