Elections in various countries

[alynnidalar]

[a lot of things about George Villiers]

Did he also rule North Korea??

[Salmoneus]

[a lot of things about George Villiers]

Did he also rule North Korea??

No, but he did discover Korea!

[N.B. he did not actually discover Korea.]

[Ares Land]

More news from French Revolution 2: Electric Bugaloo.

The president's services have announced that the tax on fuel is cancelled; no 'moratorium', it's just canceled. It's a slap in the Prime Minister's face, pretty much. According to the rumor mill, things are not going well between Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and his boss; it's even possible that the government will be replaced before Christmas. The logic sort of escapes me: protesters have demanded Macron's head and it's pretty hard to believe the government cooked up an entire fiscal policy without the president noticing. But well, I've had bosses like that so Philippe has my sympathies.

This is all from Elysée insiders, by the way. Macron himself hasn't been heard yet. I guess he's stockpiling canned goods, guns and ammo.
Also: the Elysée has made quite clear that the solidarity tax on wealth will not be reinstated (that was one of the more serious suggestions). Which proves that Mr President hasn't read Piketty, or that he has and doesn't care. Also, the deficit will not be increased. Translation: all that talk about the fuel tax is bullshit; as the middle class will pay anyway. Come on, guys. The protesters aren't exactly intellectuals, but they aren't entirely dim either.

On with the FUD program: again according to the Elysée, thousands of "putschists" are expected on Saturday, and they are out to "break things and kill". Also, the Ministry for the Interior is seriously considering the use of tanks.

High school protests! Yes, high schoolers protest and go on strike in France on a semi-regular basis. It's not usually serious, but kind of a nuisance. I hear you asking: isn't that just a pretext to skip class? Well, it totally is! Except this time they kind of have a point. You see, high school students have to make higher education applications (which includes universities and equivalent institution) through a shining new web application called Parcoursup, which has turned out to be a complete mess. The whole process is pretty anxiety-inducing for both students and parents.

And finally, our daily conspiracy theory report: on December 10th, Macron will sell France to the UN for nefarious purposes, involving immigrants and -- of course -- George Soros. The whole yellow vest thing was intended to distract the French from that devious plot.

[mèþru]

#2? I can count three within a 60 year period! (1789, 1830, 1848)

[Ares Land]

#2? I can count three within a 60 year period! (1789, 1830, 1848)

You're absolutely right. But 1830 and 1848 are really boring and I forgot about them!

[Raphael]

Sort of election related: At the party convention of Germany's conservative CDU, Angela Merkel's handpicked successor, the rather dull and grey Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, was elected new party chairperson on the second ballot with 517 of 999 votes. Doesn't get much tighter than that. She narrowly beat run-of-the-mill business conservative Friedrich Merz. Health Minister and Trump fan Jens Spahn had been eliminated after the first ballot, when he got only 157 votes. I'm really confused by the apparent existence of delegates who voted for Spahn on the first ballot and AKK on the second ballot.

[Raphael]

I am sort of looking forward to international media people, politicians, etc. trying to pronounce "Kramp-Karrenbauer".

[Salmoneus]

I am sort of looking forward to international media people, politicians, etc. trying to pronounce "Kramp-Karrenbauer".

Is it not how it looks?

As an English speaker, my problem with with "Annegret"...

[Salmoneus]

Sort of election related: At the party convention of Germany's conservative CDU, Angela Merkel's handpicked successor, the rather dull and grey Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, was elected new party chairperson on the second ballot with 517 of 999 votes. Doesn't get much tighter than that. She narrowly beat run-of-the-mill business conservative Friedrich Merz. Health Minister and Trump fan Jens Spahn had been eliminated after the first ballot, when he got only 157 votes. I'm really confused by the apparent existence of delegates who voted for Spahn on the first ballot and AKK on the second ballot.

These things are often political. They just have hated Merz for some personal reason; or they may have voted Spahn as an ideological protest, but felt it was more important to rally behind the candidate they thought would win anyway?

Or, if Spahn's Trump-loving, they may have been populists who saw a business conservative as an ideological enemy.

[mèþru]

I'm shocked. I thought someone much more conservative would have won.

Spahn and AKK are both anti-Russia, Merz isn't. I hope that that was a major factor in deciding to reject Merz.

[mèþru]

People here may be interested in my twitter arguments with Alon Levy about the protests.

[mèþru]

I have read that someone made a list of Yellow Jacket demands that seem like they were co-written by Fillon and Farage. They are for lowering taxes, quitting the EU and NATO and against climate change action. How credible is this document?

[Ares Land]

People here may be interested in my twitter arguments with Alon Levy about the protests.

Hey, I hadn't realized that before, but he's practically my neighbour! Yay Eastern Paris.
As for his positions on the whole thing... Let's say I have my disagreements.

I have read that someone made a list of Yellow Jacket demands that seem like they were co-written by Fillon and Farage. They are for lowering taxes, quitting the EU and NATO and against climate change action. How credible is this document?

I haven't seen that one. But it certainly exists somewhere -- views within the movement cover the whole political spectrum except the center. As wacky lists goes, it's nothing compared to the one that demands a 40% hike on all wages and that we default on the national debt.

Now, how representative is it of the movement as a whole?
-Lowering the taxes: yeah. Thought it's not just about the taxes; it's about purchasing power. It's claimed that the demands are incoherent because the protesters ask for less taxes and more social spending -- but it's only incoherent if you're unwilling -as LREM is- to shift the burden of tax towards higher incomes...
- Quitting the EU? Well, that's always a popular suggestion. Except protesters don't seem to blame the EU for anything really -- they blame Macron.
- Quitting NATO? That's not come up even once in reports. (Not that NATO is popular here -- I don't understand why we had to join, either -- but no one really cares)
- About climate change action, the real question is about who bears the burden of that action. Climate change denial isn't much of a thing here. And it's a little naive, at best, to assume that the tax hike was about climate change in the first place.

Now, don't get me wrong. The protesters aren't happy little leftists; but the problematic parts center around immigration and general agressivity towards the media.
And there's of course the question of who benefits the most -- and as always that would be the RN who are sort of a Farage/Fillion cross with added racism if needed.

In French politics, these days, the alternative seems to be between Macron and Le Pen. Mélenchon/LFI is a possible third option, but not without a lot of problems of their own.
In other words, if you don't like what Macron is doing, there's just no acceptable exit strategy. And people with no way out tend to get nervous...

A quick recap of what's happening:
- I've talked about high school protests. Some of these went bad; riot police made high-schoolers crouch with their hands on their hands for four hours. Not that those protests were particularly peaceful either; some joker threw acid at a journalist, and there's talk of home-made bombs.
- There were yellow vests protests again today. Paris was in lockdown with most stores closed, along with museums and libraries. Agressive search policies and heavy use of riot police ensured that slightly less damage was done. Somehow this feels anticlimatic.
- Macron will finally speak on Monday, helpfully leaving two days to the journalist to guess what he'll announce. I'm starting to feel sorry for him: no matter what he says or does, it'll only make things worse.

[Raphael]

-Lowering the taxes: yeah. Thought it's not just about the taxes; it's about purchasing power. It's claimed that the demands are incoherent because the protesters ask for less taxes and more social spending -- but it's only incoherent if you're unwilling -as LREM is- to shift the burden of tax towards higher incomes...

But is there anything explicitly about shifting the tax burden towards higher incomes in these demands?

[MacAnDàil]

As the death toll rises,

For the moment, there has been a grand total of 4 deaths in the yellow jacket movement: 2 protesters and 2 drivers. The latter 2 cases were basically road traffic accidents. And one of the protestors was an old lady gassed by a CRS. With tear gas, banned by the Geneva Convention in cases of war. So the death toll is firmly in the protesters' favour. And the majority of injured are protesters too.

[Ares Land]

-Lowering the taxes: yeah. Thought it's not just about the taxes; it's about purchasing power. It's claimed that the demands are incoherent because the protesters ask for less taxes and more social spending -- but it's only incoherent if you're unwilling -as LREM is- to shift the burden of tax towards higher incomes...

But is there anything explicitly about shifting the tax burden towards higher incomes in these demands?

As usual, yes and no.
One list of demands has:
"Impôt sur le revenu davantage progressif (plus de tranches)."
"Que les GROS (Macdo, google, Amazon, Carrefour...) payent GROS et que les petits (artisans, TPE PME) payent petit."
"More progressive income tax (more brackets)"
"Let the big ones (MacDonald's, Google, Amazon, Carrefour) pay big, and the little ones (small businesses) pay little". It's no accident that protests target regressive taxes -- and virtually no one says anything about income tax. But they are protesting the CSG, which is a form of income tax.
Reinstating the ISF (tax on wealth) is a common proposal, and there's a lot of outrage at the flat tax on capital Macron set up.

Now it is true that the whole list of demands doesn't work as a coherent work. But neither do most campaign promises!

More news:
I just read that Macron confessed to local elected officials that he 'fucked up'. He's also going to adress the nation tomorrow night. He also stated, in his usual poetical fashion: 'where there is hatred, there is a need for love also.' That doesn't mean much, but it sounds pretty!

An interesting paradox: everyone, of course, denounces violence. But someone - I forgot who - pointed out that the executive would never have backed down, or even listened, if the protests hadn't turned violent.

I'm still a little skeptical of the protests, but in retrospect they do seem kind of inevitable. But I think Macron's cardinal sin was not tax cuts for the rich, or fuel taxes hikes, or even the general air of arrogance he can't help projecting. It was killing all opposition -- even if that was through no fault of his own.
Now I'm curious as to what Macron's next move will be. I'm not quite so sure he's fucked... while he has little redeeming qualities, he does have a way to turn people around.

[Raphael]

http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/201 ... the-king-s

(Pedantic note: that blog post claims that Les Miserables is about the revolution of 1830; in fact, it (or at least the book; I dunno about the musical) is about a failed attempt at revolution that happened a while later.)

[Ares Land]

http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/201 ... the-king-s

(Pedantic note: that blog post claims that Les Miserables is about the revolution of 1830; in fact, it (or at least the book; I dunno about the musical) is about a failed attempt at revolution that happened a while later.)

Ironic, but not so suprising. The pretenders to the throne, as far as I can see, are far right nuts. L'Action Française - AFAIK, the only group that supports the monarchy - are also far-right nuts. Neither are very far from Marine Le Pen's position -- except they probably think she's too soft.
No Bourbon has had any importance in politics whatsoever, by the way. (I think De Gaulle courted the comte de Paris in the 1960s and vaguely considered constitutional monarchy, or so I've heard.)

Macron has a theory that the French public misses the kings, and that's why he's acting, as he puts it, 'Jupiter-like.'

So Jupiter came down from the Olympus (or would it be the Elysian Fields?) and deigned to adress us mere mortals.
Besides condemning the violence, apologizing for giving the impression of not caring, and looking a bit ill, he announced that the minimum wage will be raised by 100 euros a month (to be paid by the state), encouraged employers to give an end-of-year bonus, cancelled the tax raise on small pensions and reinstated the tax-free overtime scheme.
There'll also be plenty of local consultations, with mayors playing a key role. Why mayors? Because they've been busy lobbying. He probably needs to court the Senate a little, and senators are elected by mayors, among other local representatives.
No taxes for the rich. But tax evaders will definitely get stern looks!
Oh, and 'our lives will never be the same again.' (Macron's got a taste for the dramatic.)

Everybody is too busy figuring out how, exactly, they're getting screwed to riot. More importantly, he framed all of this as a huge concession, and the yellow vests would probably run the risk of looking greedy if they continue protesting.
The real question is, of course, how will all of this be paid for? And the answer is, we'll run a bigger deficit and screw the rules.

So budget deficit rules don't apply to you if you're in the 1%, or if you're willing to burn enough stuff to be noticed!

[mèþru]

What about the Bonapartist pretender, Jean-Christophe (Louis Ferdinand Albéric) Napoléon?

[Ares Land]

What about the Bonapartist pretender, Jean-Christophe (Louis Ferdinand Albéric) Napoléon?

I had to look him up I think I had him mixed up with his father who's a Corsican autonomist and supported the PS back in 2012. (He's very low profile, but you tend to remember the name...)
There's a whole current of far-right monarchists called l'Action française,going back to the early 20th century; they've made something of a comeback, but no Bonapartist equivalent (Thankfully. We've got more than our share of far-right crazies as it is.)

Or I suppose you could say the Bonapartists have won, after a fashion...