War in the Middle East, again

[Travis B.]

They are more akin to the "governments" of the bantustans under apartheid South Africa, except that they have a habit of fighting with the Israeli gov't every so often, unlike the bantustans vis-à-vis South Africa.

I'm not sure how to explain how bad the conditions are in Gaza. Maybe watching this video will help if you haven't already: https://youtu.be/bZq7tOGAkfA

Oh, I know that conditions in Gaza are awful. But that does not change the fact that Gaza is essentially a bantustan, just like the West Bank.

[keenir]

either the IDF withdraws and leaves innocent Israelis to their fates, or they invade and leave innocent Palestinians to be caught in their cross-fire. We’re damned if we do and damned if we don’t. And I consider it a credit to the IDF that they’re at least attempting to remove civilians from the scene before invading. Under these horrific circumstances, that’s probably as close to ‘the right thing’ as possible.

How would a ground invasion of Gaza help Israel?

Who said anything about a ground invasion?

Hamas has no power in this situation.

I imagine if you told a member of Hamas that, they'd either laugh, or they'd remark "We can do all this when we have no power? How have we not been stronger sooner?"

Israel deliberately withdrew the IDF from Gaza to terrorize the West Bank, Palestinians who are effectively cooperating with their own annihilation. If Israel implements strict security measures around Gaza, then Hamas is powerless.

You do realize that Hamas has rockets, right?

[rotting bones]

Who said anything about a ground invasion?

Israel did. If they changed their minds, I haven't heard about it.

I imagine if you told a member of Hamas that, they'd either laugh, or they'd remark "We can do all this when we have no power? How have we not been stronger sooner?"

No, that is objectively not what they say. They say that the Palestinian people are already dead. We can choose to die, either by drinking poisoned water or fighting to save our families like a man.

You do realize that Hamas has rockets, right?

Cheap rockets that knock corners off buildings. Israel has countermeasures for such things, albeit imperfect ones. When Israel fires their rockets, entire apartment complexes collapse, and that's them holding back.

[Travis B.]

I imagine if you told a member of Hamas that, they'd either laugh, or they'd remark "We can do all this when we have no power? How have we not been stronger sooner?"

No, that is objectively not what they say. They say that the Palestinian people are already dead. We can choose to die, either by drinking poisoned water or fighting to save our families like a man.

Doing what Hamas has done simply results in certain eradication for Hamas and substantial death and destruction for the Gazans in general, regardless of whether they support Hamas or not, now with no actual gains. And as we have seen, it has greatly increased support for Israel and caused many to overlook the actions of the Israeli gov't, which runs completely counter to any goal of increasing sympathy for the Palestinian cause.

[rotting bones]

Doing what Hamas has done simply results in certain eradication for Hamas and substantial death and destruction for the Gazans in general, regardless of whether they support Hamas or not, now with no actual gains. And as we have seen, it has greatly increased support for Israel and caused many to overlook the actions of the Israeli gov't, which runs completely counter to any goal of increasing sympathy for the Palestinian cause.

Hamas doesn't care about support from neckbeards on Reddit like me. They don't believe that anyone who matters will ever support the Palestinian cause since Israel functions as a military outpost for the country with the most powerful military in the world. Their goal is go out in a righteous suicide that is glorious in the eyes of the Palestinian people. The more gross we consider their methods to be, the more glorious they find it. They get off on our disgust. Apart from Nazi Germany, there have been historical precedents in Rome, Japan, Bali, etc.

[keenir]

Who said anything about a ground invasion?

Israel did. If they changed their minds, I haven't heard about it.

I was referring to the discussion thread here.

[rotting bones]

I was referring to the discussion thread here.

Israel is telling them to evacuate prior to the planned ground invasion.

[xxx]

collateral consequence of the Middle East crisis,
after pro-Palestinian protests held despite bans,
a first terrorist knife attack in a French school,
a teacher dead...

[keenir]

I was referring to the discussion thread here.

Israel is telling them to evacuate prior to the planned ground invasion.

Its very tempting to ask you when the nation of Israel was posting in this thread.

[Travis B.]

Hamas doesn't care about support from neckbeards on Reddit like me. They don't believe that anyone who matters will ever support the Palestinian cause since Israel functions as a military outpost for the country with the most powerful military in the world. Their goal is go out in a righteous suicide that is glorious in the eyes of the Palestinian people. The more gross we consider their methods to be, the more glorious they find it. They get off on our disgust. Apart from Nazi Germany, there have been historical precedents in Rome, Japan, Bali, etc.

Hamas has done the most possible to negate sympathy for the Palestinians, and justify the killing of Palestinians, in the course of a week. The Israelis are now the victims and the Palestinians are now the perpetrators, and however many Palestinians die due to this is just an unfortunate side effect of that now Hamas must be destroyed, in the eyes of the world. Even people like myself who are inclined to sympathize with the Palestinians now tend to be of the view that the Israeli gov't now has no choice but to destroy Hamas, as sad as the inevitable deaths of Palestinian civilians are and will be. Furthermore, the fact that Hamas must have known that this would be the certain consequence of their actions negates any sympathy with them, because they are effectively sacrificing very many innocent Palestinians for their own self-righteous suicide, which should have been obvious from the beginning.

[zompist]

Hamas has done the most possible to negate sympathy for the Palestinians, and justify the killing of Palestinians, in the course of a week. The Israelis are now the victims and the Palestinians are now the perpetrators, and however many Palestinians die due to this is just an unfortunate side effect of that now Hamas must be destroyed, in the eyes of the world.

You have to get out more. The Hamas attack is widely popular in the Arab world. Where autocratic rulers might be willing to make peace with Israel, the people are not. Saudi Arabia is in a particularly delicate spot, and it's hard to imagine that it's going to choose this moment, or this year, to normalize relations.

This doesn't mean that Arabs in general like Hamas-- but they like Palestinians, and they hate when their government ignores the Palestinians. As the article says, many Arabs would support a two-state solution, but absolutely not the Likud one-state solution.

I don't believe the Hamas leadership is suicidal-- I don't see that even a ground invasion can actually get rid of them. The Israelis don't have detective vision where the Hamas militants glow red and civilians are blue. And it seems likely they can escape when they choose-- unlike ordinary Gazans.

Finally, Hamas obviously intended to provoke Israel into counter-atrocities, and Israel is taking the bait. Will Western approval for Israel be maintained a few months from now as Palestinians, and probably hostages, die in large numbers?

[Travis B.]

Tis true, but the key thing is that now Israel can attempt to justify its atrocities to the world as sad but necessary, whereas they would have been very broadly denounced, and not just within the Arab world, had they done before this what they are doing now.

[bradrn]

I don't believe the Hamas leadership is suicidal-- I don't see that even a ground invasion can actually get rid of them. The Israelis don't have detective vision where the Hamas militants glow red and civilians are blue. And it seems likely they can escape when they choose-- unlike ordinary Gazans.

On the other hand, Hamas leadership is so ideological as to make insane and horrible decisions. All reports I’ve seen suggest that many civilians are trying to evacuate, whereas Hamas is determined to stay put. I’ve even seen some reports claiming that Hamas is forcing people at gunpoint to stay at home and not follow Israeli orders.

There’s a broader point to be made here… what’s the alternative to what Israel is doing? Israel cannot allow Hamas to murder and kidnap people with impunity. If a ground invasion results in atrocities, it will largely be because Hamas uses– no, forces ordinary citizens to stay as human shields for military installations. And allowing Hamas to dictate terms in this way will only result in more terrorism and more kidnappings. I see Israel as doing the best they can to remove civilians from the area, before acting decisively on Hamas’s terror.

Finally, Hamas obviously intended to provoke Israel into counter-atrocities, and Israel is taking the bait. Will Western approval for Israel be maintained a few months from now as Palestinians, and probably hostages, die in large numbers?

If hostages start dying in large numbers, probably Israelis themselves will immediately stop supporting the war. Insofar as I understand it, the primary reason for this ground invasion is to rescue the hostages. Destroying Hamas is important, but secondary.

[Travis B.]

I don't believe the Hamas leadership is suicidal-- I don't see that even a ground invasion can actually get rid of them. The Israelis don't have detective vision where the Hamas militants glow red and civilians are blue. And it seems likely they can escape when they choose-- unlike ordinary Gazans.

On the other hand, Hamas leadership is so ideological as to make insane and horrible decisions. All reports I’ve seen suggest that many civilians are trying to evacuate, whereas Hamas is determined to stay put. I’ve even seen some reports claiming that Hamas is forcing people at gunpoint to stay at home and not follow Israeli orders.

Making a decision that will force one's enemy to seek one's annihilation in a war that one cannot possibly win or even bring to a negotiated end is definitely an insane and horrible decision ─ and that is precisely what Hamas has done here. In all the previous cycles of violence between Israel and Hamas this line has not been crossed, but this time it has been.

There’s a broader point to be made here… what’s the alternative to what Israel is doing? Israel cannot allow Hamas to murder and kidnap people with impunity. If a ground invasion results in atrocities, it will largely be because Hamas uses– no, forces ordinary citizens to stay as human shields for military installations. And allowing Hamas to dictate terms in this way will only result in more terrorism and more kidnappings. I see Israel as doing the best they can to remove civilians from the area, before acting decisively on Hamas’s terror.

This is why I am of the view that Israel has no choice but to do what they are doing, no matter the human cost on the Palestinian side. If Israel does not crush Hamas this time around, what message does that send to them and to anyone who may emulate them? That you can kill over a thousand innocent Israelis, and take over a hundred captive as hostages, and come out in one piece? This will only embolden them in the future.

That said, about evacuating northern Gaza, simply an evacuation will cause harm to civilians, as seen with the evacuation after Fukushima, but less so than civilians being caught in a ground invasion. That said, I myself have seen the "24 hours" figure in the news, and 24 hours simply is not enough time to evacuate over a million people.

[keenir]

That said, about evacuating northern Gaza, simply an evacuation will cause harm to civilians, as seen with the evacuation after Fukushima, but less so than civilians being caught in a ground invasion. That said, I myself have seen the "24 hours" figure in the news, and 24 hours simply is not enough time to evacuate over a million people.

Even assuming the evacuation goes smoothly - in the sense of no wounded or deaths caused during it - to me, the obvious question is where do you put a million people? Whether its done to check the evacuated for Hamas membership or not, its still something to consider.

[Torco]

Finally, Hamas obviously intended to provoke Israel into counter-atrocities, and Israel is taking the bait. Will Western approval for Israel be maintained a few months from now as Palestinians, and probably hostages, die in large numbers?

my prediction is that, though of course western approval for israel will drop, the US and the more western euro countries will stick with israel even if they turn gaza into a vast glass plains.

There’s a broader point to be made here… what’s the alternative to what Israel is doing? Israel cannot allow Hamas to murder and kidnap people with impunity. If a ground invasion results in atrocities, it will largely be because Hamas uses– no, forces ordinary citizens to stay as human shields for military installations. And allowing Hamas to dictate terms in this way will only result in more terrorism and more kidnappings. I see Israel as doing the best they can to remove civilians from the area, before acting decisively on Hamas’s terror.

I mean they could.... i don't know... not do apartheid? that'd be a start.

[Linguoboy]

Tis true, but the key thing is that now Israel can attempt to justify its atrocities to the world as sad but necessary, whereas they would have been very broadly denounced, and not just within the Arab world, had they done before this what they are doing now.

Did you see "very broad denounce[ment]" of Israel's support of settler violence in West Bank over the course of the past year? Or did foreign governments ignore it and continue to work toward normalisation of relations?

I see Israel as doing the best they can to remove civilians from the area, before acting decisively on Hamas’s terror.

Wouldn't that involve opening at least one of the crossings to allow them to leave Gaza altogether?

Moreover, some Palestinians seem reluctant to flee for fear that the invasion could result in further land grabs. Given Israel's behaviour in the West Bank, I can't say their fears are unjustified. If the Israeli government has tried to give any assurances that this won't happen, I haven't seen it. (Though what such assurances would be worth given that they've broken numerous binding agreements not to seize territory before is hard to say.)

[Travis B.]

Tis true, but the key thing is that now Israel can attempt to justify its atrocities to the world as sad but necessary, whereas they would have been very broadly denounced, and not just within the Arab world, had they done before this what they are doing now.

Did you see "very broad denounce[ment]" of Israel's support of settler violence in West Bank over the course of the past year? Or did foreign governments ignore it and continue to work toward normalisation of relations?

No, we have not seen that - but it should be remembered that sustaining apartheid, as bad as it is, is far easier to overlook than cutting off all food, water, and electricity to millions while killing 2600+ of them through incessant bombings; the only reason why people are overlooking what Israel is doing right now in Gaza is because it is seen as merely an unfortunate side-effect of being forced to destroy Hamas.

[bradrn]

I see Israel as doing the best they can to remove civilians from the area, before acting decisively on Hamas’s terror.

Wouldn't that involve opening at least one of the crossings to allow them to leave Gaza altogether?

I don’t see how that would possibly be practical, given that the starting point for this war was Hamas coming into Israel and brutally murdering 1300 Israelis. On the other hand, note that Egypt has also been keeping its border closed. (As indeed they have been for many years — Israel isn’t the only one responsible for the blockade.)

[Linguoboy]

On the other hand, note that Egypt has also been keeping its border closed. (As indeed they have been for many years — Israel isn’t the only one responsible for the blockade.)

I find this argument somewhat disingenuous. In the present situation, Egypt has reportedly been willing to open the one ground crossing it controls (out of five) in order to allow in humanitarian aid but has held off because Israel keeps bombing it and won't guarantee safe passage for the convoy into or within Gaza. This is a stark confirmation of Douhet's theory that he who controls the air controls the situation, as Israel's control of Gazan airspace is pretty well uncontested. What would the response of the Israelis have been if, during one of the previous wars on Hamas, Egypt had unilaterally decided to stop participating in the blockade? Would they have just shrugged and said, "Well, the Rafah crossing is theirs to do with what they like, so I guess that's that"?