German Politics Thread

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Man in Space
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Man in Space »

Raphael wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:10 pm
Man in Space wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:55 pmI misread that as referring to the Wikipedia: Articles for Deletion and was momentarily befuddled.
I generally assume that people in this thread know the basics of German political terminology. Those who don't can go here:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1dat ... sp=sharing
That explains it. I thought this was a different thread. Mine apologies.
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Raphael
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Man in Space wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:40 pmI thought this was a different thread. Mine apologies.
No problem. Which thread did you think this was?
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Man in Space »

Raphael wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:46 pm
Man in Space wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:40 pmI thought this was a different thread. Mine apologies.
No problem. Which thread did you think this was?
The Venting Thread. I had clicked it expecting to be taken to new posts so yours didn’t seem far-fetched for that thread.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Man in Space wrote: Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:18 pm The Venting Thread. I had clicked it expecting to be taken to new posts so yours didn’t seem far-fetched for that thread.
Ah, thank you.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Today I learned that the German legal requirements to be allowed to write a blog without risking major fines are completely bonkers, potentially highly dangerous, and arguably an unconstitutional hurdle to exercising my right to free speech. They also make the often-flaunted German pride in having oh-so-great privacy protections sound a lot less impressive.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Travis B. »

Raphael wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 2:36 pm Today I learned that the German legal requirements to be allowed to write a blog without risking major fines are completely bonkers, potentially highly dangerous, and arguably an unconstitutional hurdle to exercising my right to free speech. They also make the often-flaunted German pride in having oh-so-great privacy protections sound a lot less impressive.
The more I hear about laws in Europe about freedom of speech, libel, secondary liability, and like, the more I despise Europe. (Conversely, with regard to things like healthcare, abortion, workers' rights, and censorship, particularly in Republican-dominated states, I despise America.)
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Re: German Politics Thread

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Raphael wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 2:36 pm Today I learned that the German legal requirements to be allowed to write a blog without risking major fines are completely bonkers, potentially highly dangerous, and arguably an unconstitutional hurdle to exercising my right to free speech. They also make the often-flaunted German pride in having oh-so-great privacy protections sound a lot less impressive.
Wait, what kind of laws could possibly endanger an ordinary, personal blog?
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

bradrn wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:45 am
Raphael wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 2:36 pm Today I learned that the German legal requirements to be allowed to write a blog without risking major fines are completely bonkers, potentially highly dangerous, and arguably an unconstitutional hurdle to exercising my right to free speech. They also make the often-flaunted German pride in having oh-so-great privacy protections sound a lot less impressive.
Wait, what kind of laws could possibly endanger an ordinary, personal blog?
See here:

https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?p=72406#p72406
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by bradrn »

Raphael wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:51 am
bradrn wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:45 am
Raphael wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 2:36 pm Today I learned that the German legal requirements to be allowed to write a blog without risking major fines are completely bonkers, potentially highly dangerous, and arguably an unconstitutional hurdle to exercising my right to free speech. They also make the often-flaunted German pride in having oh-so-great privacy protections sound a lot less impressive.
Wait, what kind of laws could possibly endanger an ordinary, personal blog?
See here:

https://www.verduria.org/viewtopic.php?p=72406#p72406
Ah, didn’t see that. But I was asking about precisely which laws require this. Surely it can’t be the case that anyone who publishes anything online is required to disclose their identity?
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Raphael
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

bradrn wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 1:55 amSurely it can’t be the case that anyone who publishes anything online is required to disclose their identity?
Only applies to websites and some social media profiles; not, thankfully, to forum posts. But with that caveat, yes - their identity, their home or business address - that is, their home address if they don't have a business address - their email address, and their phone number.

One of the two clauses in question is technically a consumer protection clause, and was originally written with online shops in mind. Keep them from scamming their customers by, among other things, making it mandatory for them to be easy to reach for their customers. But it was unfortunately phrased so broadly that it effectively applies to almost every serious online presence.

The other clause is part of a more general media law, and was simply meant to make it easier to hold people legally accountable for what they publish.
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Re: German Politics Thread

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What if you don't own the website? E.g. you can set up a free subsite on wordpress.com, which is what I do.
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Raphael
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

zompist wrote: Wed Jul 12, 2023 2:52 am What if you don't own the website? E.g. you can set up a free subsite on wordpress.com, which is what I do.
It's still considered something provided by me. To some extent, those laws are even applied to Facebook pages.
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Raphael
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Two things to report, one big, one less so.

First, there's an election scheduled in Bavaria for October 8th. Since their last election, they had been governed by a coalition between their permanent ruling party, the conservative CSU, and the initially all-over-the-place, now more decidedly right-wing protest party the Free Voters.

Recently, it was discovered that the leader of the Free Voters in the state, Hubert Aiwanger, had, as a teenager, been involved in publishing an extremely crass, extremely vulgar, and extremely antisemitic leaflet. After some back and forth, CSU leader and Bavarian Premier Markus Söder declared that he would stick by Aiwanger. Aiwanger himself issued a faux apology while simultaneously attacking a supposed "smear campaign" against him. The coalition is still holding.

Personally, I'm pessimistic enough about the extent of antisemitism in Germany that I'm relatively sure that the Free Voters will gain votes from all this, but we'll see.

The less big thing I want to talk about isn't really one of the main issues right now, but there's occasionally some talk about it. It involves wolves. No, not the official name or nickname of some subculture or political movement or sports team or something, but actual undomesticated members of the species canis lupus.

They had been hunted to extinction in Germany in the 18th and 19th century. Then, from the 1990s onwards, they started to return. First to the easternmost parts of the country, near the Polish border; then, very gradually, to more westerly parts as well. The establishment consensus is that this is a great addition to biodiversity and a great sign of damage to nature being repaired, but not everyone agrees. So far, they haven't seriously hurt human beings (as far as I know), but they have already made themselves very unpopular among people who own sheep.
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Raphael
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Exit poll results for today's two German state legislative elections:

Bavaria:

CSU 37.0 percent about even
Greens 16.0 percent -1.6 percent
Free Voters 14.0 percent +2.4 percent
AfD 15.0 percent +4.8 percent
SPD 8.5 percent -1.2 percent
FDP 3.0 percent (out) -2.1 percent


Hesse:

CDU 35.5 percent +8.5 percent
Greens 15.5 percent -4.3 percent
SPD 16.0 percent -3.8 percent
AfD 16.0 percent +2.9 percent
FDP 5.0 percent - that means, not yet clear if they'll make it - -2.5 percent
The Left 3.5 percent (out) -2.8 percent
Last edited by Raphael on Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Those exit polls might be less accurate than usually, because of an unusually high share of people voting by mail.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Provisional final results (+ and - means swing compared to the previous state election in the same state):

Bavaria:

CSU 37 percent, -0.2 percent, 85 out of 203 seats
Free Voters 15.8 percent, +4.2 percent, 37 out of 203 seats
AfD 14.6 percent, +4.4 percent, 32 out of 203 seats
Greens 14.4 percent, -3.2 percent, 32 out of 203 seats
SPD 8.4 percent, -1.3 percent, 17 out of 203 seats
FDP 3.0 percent, -2.1 percent, not seats

So, as I expected, the antisemitism revelations around the Free Voters' leader helped them a lot.

Hesse (seats calculated on the assumption that the FDP will end up just barely above 5 percent):

CDU 34.6 percent, +7.6 percent, 52 out of 133 seats
AfD 18.4 percent, +5.3 percent, 28 out of 133 seats
SPD 15.1 percent, -4.7 percent, 23 out of 133 seats
Greens 14.8 percent, -5.0 percent, 22 out of 133 seats
FDP 5.0 percent, -2.5 percent, 8 out of 133 seats
Free Voters 3.5 percent, +0.5 percent, no seats
The Left 3.1 percent, -3.2 percent, no seats


Looks like the FDP has just barely hold on in Hesse. That might, just might, keep the FDP from walking out of the coalition at the federal level and triggering an early federal election. It's not certain, though.

Expect more migrant-bashing, as there seems to be general agreement that opposition to migration helped the AfD a lot.

Oh, and the CSU in Bavaria standing still while the CDU in Hesse gained 7.6 percent probably destroyed any remaining chance - not that there'd been any, mind you - of CSU leader and Bavarian Premier Markus Söder replacing CDU leader Friedrich Merz as conservative candidate for Chancellor in the next federal election.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

Given the current poll numbers and the constant bickering within the ruling traffic light coalition, the opposition CDU is demanding an early election. They're not getting all that much applause for that demand so far, though.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by Raphael »

There's been a lot of stuff happening in German politics since this year started, and I really should have written about it, but, frankly, I found most of it too depressing. So, apologies for that.
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Re: German Politics Thread

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Raphael wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:52 am There's been a lot of stuff happening in German politics since this year started, and I really should have written about it, but, frankly, I found most of it too depressing. So, apologies for that.
Yes, it is pretty unpleasant right now. But at least, people protest against the far right, and the most recent opinion polls show a slight decrease of AfD votes, though this probably is mostly due to Sahra Wagenknecht's mottled crew entering the game, who now offer a way of telling the established parties that they are all bullfrogs without having to vote for a party many people say about they were Nazis.
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Re: German Politics Thread

Post by hwhatting »

WeepingElf wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 10:34 am Sahra Wagenknecht's mottled crew entering the game, who now offer a way of telling the established parties that they are all bullfrogs without having to vote for a party many people say about they were Nazis.
Well, that bunch is still xenophobic and pro-Putin, only with left-wing social and economic policies. Not really more appetizing than the AfD.
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