Venting thread

[So Haleza Grise]

We bought the current apartment we are living in about 5 years ago. I always knew there were signs that it had previously suffered some damage from water but couldn't figure out what the source was. Since then, whenever it rains heavily (which is every second summer or so), the small external tiled courtyard floods. There is obviously some problem with the drainage / waterproofing, probably at least one problem with each. There is one particular plumber who knows all about this apartment complex, and who has a good relationship with the body corporate, so I try to use him (I think the plumbing of this place has a few quirks: One example: the water shut off valve is in an unusual place, and plumbers seem to have trouble finding it). But this guy, who I want to use, is always busy. The only time I can ever get him to show up is when the courtyard is dry. Right now, it's wet and I can't get onto him. It's incredibly frustrating! Not to mention the thought of water damage is keeping me up at night. I don't think there is a quick and easy fix to this, but I think I need to do something about it ASAP before this situation does any more damage.

[Raphael]

Good luck with you plumbing issues, So Haleza Grise!

[So Haleza Grise]

Good luck with you plumbing issues, So Haleza Grise!

Thank you very much, and dobri cuendi!

[Space60]

Why are people so dumb to think that celebrate New Years Eve by shooting guns up in the air is a good idea? The bullets come down. People have been injured and even killed by stray bullets all because people thought that celebrating New Years Eve with guns was a good idea.

[linguistcat]

I guess it boils down to they can and they want to and believe on some level nothing bad can happen to them.

[Travis B.]

I guess it boils down to they can and they want to and believe on some level nothing bad can happen to them.

And they don't care if something bad happens to someone else.

[Darren]

Ingeniously, a bullet shot directly up will lose enough of its initial energy so that when it falls down (possibly onto the shooter), it will be fairly harmless. If the bullet is shot at an angle, enough of the energy is retained so that it can still cause a fair bit of damage, but it will hit a fair distance away, and the further away the harder it will hit. This means that the people shooting the bullets don't need to worry about hitting themselves at all.

[Man in Space]

They did this on MythBusters. It kills people.

[Raphael]

The last days of the old year, and the first days of the new, got me thinking, and led me to some very pessimistic thoughts.

Basically, I worry that this might have been either the last New Year, or one of the last New Years, when I was able to write a post like this without getting imprisoned or killed for it. Hear me out.

Kim Jong Un has already said in his New Year's Address that he's preparing to nuke all of South Korea. Now, I don't live in South Korea, and he might not actually do that, but I take his talk along those lines as a sign of how emboldened the global autocratic alliance has gotten.

It's not difficult to imagine the playbook for a global autocratic takeover. The USA gets taken over by its own reactionary forces, and, in the name of pseudo-isolationism, withdraws from Europe and East Asia. Russia takes over Europe, partly by military conquest (helped by the end of US supplies for Europe), partly by helping local far-right groups taking over. China and North Korea take over the rest of East Asia by direct military conquest. India falls ever deeper into the clutches of its current government. Remaining small non-autocratic countries get either conquered militarily, or pressured into becoming semi-autonomous quasi-protectorates of the one or other autocracy or group of autocracies, under the condition that they don't allow any anti-autocratic activism inside their own borders.

And then a long, dark night falls over the world. A long, stable, perhaps permanent period in which there is no respect or appreciation for free enquiry, for dissent, for passionate debate, or for justice. Everything I value, care about, or believe in is destroyed, perhaps forever. Economically, while the whole thing would, of course, be cheered on by the world's tankies, it would effectively perpetuate crony capitalism everywhere, with people complaining about it disappearing quickly.

Some might argue that the scenario that I just described wouldn't be worse than the current status quo, because the things I value, care about, and believe in are all illusions that don't really exist anyway. IMO, the very fact that, for now, I can write a post like this without risking imprisonment or death, while in many other places, the local residents would risk very serious trouble by writing a post like this, is sufficient proof that that claim is wrong.

So, Happy New Year, everyone!

[bradrn]

As an Australian, does that mean I’m safe?

[Ares Land]

I'm not as pessimistic as you are.
Among several objections, I'm almost certain Russia can't pull off anything like military conquest in Western Europe. I don't see China having any territorial ambitions beyond Taiwan. I can't really picture even Trump pulling off NATO. Also, I'm pretty sure the call to vitrify South Korea are a regular fixture of Kim Jong Un's speeches (not that it's really reassuring, but at least it's not worse than usual.)

Among things I am pessimistic about, I think things won't improve much for Ukraine, I definitely see Trump re-elected and my own country turn to authoritarianism is deeply depressing.

I'm vaguely cautiously optimistic in that I suspect the far right window of opportunity might have passed (though far from completely reassured.)

[Raphael]

As an Australian, does that mean I’m safe?

I don't see a country with less than 30 million inhabitants resist the combined forces of all the world's major powers for long. And if Australia, perhaps together with a few other places, ends up as the last part of the world where people are still legally allowed to criticize the world's leading autocrats, the world's leading autocrats might well soon be annoyed enough about that state of affairs that they "exert pressure" on the Australian government to change it.

I'm not as pessimistic as you are.
Among several objections, I'm almost certain Russia can't pull off anything like military conquest in Western Europe.

I don't see any of the smaller European countries resisting for long without American help, which would disappear in my scenario. The only country that might be able to do that is France - which might soon be ruled by Putin's buddies by its own choice.

I don't see China having any territorial ambitions beyond Taiwan.

That's where the thing that some people call "mission creep" comes in. If they successfully conquer Taiwan, they might well think, "Hey, that worked out really well for us. Why not help our buddy re-unite Korea next, and then go for Japan?"

I can't really picture even Trump pulling off NATO.

I can.

Also, I'm pretty sure the call to vitrify South Korea are a regular fixture of Kim Jong Un's speeches (not that it's really reassuring, but at least it's not worse than usual.)

I think I've seen comments that he was more bellicose than usual.


Then again, I've written all this partly just to get it out of my system.

[Ares Land]

I don't see any of the smaller European countries resisting for long without American help, which would disappear in my scenario. The only country that might be able to do that is France - which might soon be ruled by Putin's buddies by its own choice.

A pro-Putin stance could be sold to the French electorate when they could rely on vague paranoia about NATO and the US, plus what Putin had his eyes on was Crimea, which is far away and which, alas, many French people can't place on a map (as a bonus, you can claim it was Russian to those who know where it is.)
With the war in Ukraine the pro-Putin stance is already harder to maintain (the RN is taking measures to distance itself from Russia, or to appear to be doing so), and Kiev is far away.
With Russian tanks at the German border though? No way you could sell that to the voters.

(FWIW I don't think US voters, no matter how Republican, would accept that either. )

That's also probably overestimating the state of the Russian military, which can just about bully Ukraine.

Then again, I've written all this partly just to get it out of my system.

I can understand that. I'm feeling a little gloomy about the state of the world myself.

[WeepingElf]

Raphael's scenario is not impossible, and it would be utterly nightmarish. It would not only mean an end of democracy and free expression, it would also mean an end to all efforts to remedy such things as poverty, the climate crisis or mass extinction of species. The result would be nothing less than the end of civilization as we know it.

But I don't think it is inevitable, indeed I am still very hopeful that it can be avoided, and to the contrary, and end of autocracy and thereby also an end of war may be possible within our century. The novel I am currently working on, with the working title Kipppunkt ('tipping point'), is about this matter. It is set in a near future where there is a cold war between two global alliances, one of democracies, and one of autocracies. At the beginning of the novel, it seems as if the autocracies are on the road to victory, but then, partly due to the efforts of the protagonists - a pair of whistleblowers - the situation tips.

[Darren]

I reckon she'll be right

[malloc]

What Raphael said. Ever since the unexpected victory of Brexit and Trump, I have been deeply worried about the far right and authoritarian politics taking over the world. I initially hoped that such phenomena would prove a passing fad, particularly given the evident failings of Trump, but they have proven remarkably persistent. Country after country has seen reactionary parties surge in the polls with some already having elected far right governments. Against all logic, Trump remains a formidable candidate in the upcoming presidential election with many polls putting him ahead.

[Travis B.]

RIP Niklaus Wirth.

[malloc]

Just had the worst day since my grandma died three years ago. With all the commotion around the holidays, I completely forgot to pay my rent. Now my landlord is evicting me. This completely ruins my life. It was sheer luck that I found my current apartment and I can't imagine I will find another with this hanging over my head. The best possible case scenario is finding one an hour away from work next to a hazardous waste dump or something.

Let me stress that I have no family members in the area who are willing to let me live with them. Once they kick me out, I will literally be living on the streets in the middle of winter. The landlord might as well just shoot me in the head himself. It would be more merciful that freezing to death in sleet and snow.

[Civil War Bugle]

I don’t know your exact situation or the exact laws in effect where you live, Malloc, so interpret this accordingly, but a lot of places have some level of tenant protection such that you could be able to contest it in court, especially if you have the money available to bring the rent current. Probably would be an excellent idea to talk to a lawyer about it.

I don’t know if you are eligible for legal aid, but if you have the sort of low income where you’re eligible, legal aid societies do a lot of work on landlord tenant issues. I interned at one this past summer in the state where I attend school and tenant issues were a very common thing we worked on. I am also sure there are probably plenty of private (in the sense of not working for a nonprofit) attorneys in your area who could tell you what you need to know if you are able to afford to hire one. (The place where I interned had a list of lawyers to refer people to if they were above our income eligibility guidelines.)

In any case, that is definitely not a fun situation and I hope you find some kind of viable solution for it.

[zompist]

Just had the worst day since my grandma died three years ago. With all the commotion around the holidays, I completely forgot to pay my rent. Now my landlord is evicting me.

No he's not. He's doing something, and you need to understand what that is, whether he's done it correctly, and what recourses and rights you have. Landlords try to bamboozle people all the time.

Calm down, read about how these things work.

1. It is essential to give tenants proper Notice Periods for Eviction while stating the reason for eviction. This notice should clearly articulate the violation or breach of the lease agreement. The delivery of such notice must be done either in person or through certified mail.

2. In cases of non-payment of rent, tenants must be given a 3-day notice to pay or quit. This means they are allowed 3 days to either pay the overdue rent or vacate the premises.

Did you get a written notice? Did it state the reason for eviction? Did it specify that you can pay the rent, and in what time period?

The landlord cannot evict you (i.e. force you to leave). Only a judge can do that. If you simply ignore the written notice, he can file a court case, you will be notified and have to appear in court. You have time in either case: the trial is not immediate, nor is a judge's order.

I emphasize point 2. Pay the rent and it's unlikely anything can happen to you.

Edit, reading Civil War Bugle's advice: Lawyering up is always good advice. But if you pay the rent right now, you should not need a lawyer. And it will look much better for you, and probably stymie the landlord completely, if you pay up.